11 February 2025

Wall Street berbalik menguat pada perdagangan Senin (10/2). Movers utama adalah saham-saham produsen baja dan alumunium di AS menyusul rencana implementasi tarif 25% untuk produk impor baja dan alumunium. ECB President, Christine Lagarde menyatakan bahwa inflasi di Eropa berada dalam jalur yang benar menuju target ECB. ECB diyakini akan mempertahankan kebijakan pemangkasan sukubunga acuan yang cukup agresif di 2025. IHSG konfirmasi support breaklow di 6700 dan berpotensi uji support berikutnya di 6550-6600. Stochastic RSI berpotensi losing momentum, jika breaklow 6550. Saham-saham rate-sensitive, khususnya bank-bank berkapitalisasi besar tertekan di Senin (10/2). Kondisi ini diperkirakan masih berlanjut sampai dengan Selasa (11/2). IKK Indonesia di Januari 2025 (11/2) diharapkan mampu meredam tekanan jual di Selasa (11/2). IKK Januari 2025 diyakini tidak bergerak jauh dari posisi Desember 2024 (127.7), bahkan berpeluang sedikit lebih tinggi. Top picks (11/2) : UNVR, PGAS, MEDC, TPIA, dan CLEO.

10 Februari 2025

10 Februari 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street melemah sekitar 1% di Jumat (7/2). Pelemahan tersebut merespon rencana pengumuman kebijakan tarif baru oleh Presiden AS, Donald Trump di Senin (10/2). Kondisi ini dikhawatirkan memicu lonjakan inflasi global. Peningkatan uncertainty risk global di atas berpotensi memicu capital outflow lanjutan dari Pasar Modal Indonesia. IHSG memiliki support critical terdekat saat ini di 6700, dengan support berikutnya di rentang 6550-6600. Sejumlah data domestik, seperti penjualan motor, keyakinan konsumen, dan penjualan ritel di Januari 2025 masih dapat diharapkan untuk meredam aksi jual tersebut. Top picks : BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, BBCA, ASII, dan TLKM. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

FX Reserves: US$156.1 billion | 0.24% MoM |7.62% YoY Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.24% MoM to US$156.1 billion in January 2025 from US$155.7 billion in December 2024. This increase was influenced by several factors, including the government's global bond issuance, tax and service revenue realization, and Rupiah exchange rate stabilization policies implemented amid continued uncertainty in international financial markets. Furthermore, the current level of foreign exchange reserves remains high, equivalent to 6.7 months of imports or 6.5 months of government external debt payments. It is above the international adequacy standard of 3 months of imports. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Wall Street ditutup beragam di Kamis (6/2), dipengaruhi oleh lanjutan rilis kinerja keuangan 4Q24 dari perusahaan-perusahaan di AS. Mayoritas indeks di Eropa lanjutkan penguatan di Kamis (6/2) merespon keputusan BoE untuk memangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps menjadi 4.5% (6/2). Data ketenagakerjaan terbaru di AS membangun spekulasi bahwa the Fed akan less-hawkish dalam FOMC Maret 2025. Rally harga emas terhenti di Kamis (6/2) dengan koreksi 0.45% ke US$2,880/troy oz. Presiden AS, Donald Trump dikabarkan memerintahkan U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent untuk menurukan 10-Year Bond Yield di AS tanpa perlu pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed. Bagi Indonesia, disamping pengetatan likuiditas, kondisi ini berpotensi memicu rotasi ke obligasi jangka panjang, khususnya obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia karena berpotensi menawarkan return yang lebih menarik ketika dibandingkan dengan U.S. Treasury Bonds. IHSG masih akan bergerak di bawah level psikologis 7000 pada akhir pekan ini (7/2). Top picks (7/2) : MYOR, MAPI, AMRT, INDF, dan BUKA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

7 February 2025

S&P Global PMI Manufacturing Index: 51.2 S&P Global PMI Services Index: 52.9 ISM PMI Manufacturing Index: 50.9 ISM PMI Services Index: 52.8 The US manufacturing sector expanded in early 2025, driven by confidence in the Trump administration’s protectionist policies, including tax cuts and import tariffs. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 50.9, marking the first expansion after 26 months of contraction, with increased demand, production, and employment. Meanwhile, the services sector remained in expansion but slowed due to weaker new orders and extreme weather disruptions. The S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 52.9, and the ISM Services PMI declined to 52.8, as cold weather affected businesses and transportation, while interest rate expectations influenced financial services demand. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

GDP Growth Rate: 5.02% YoY GDP Growth Rate: 0.53% QoQ Full Year GDP Growth Rate 2024: 5.03% Indonesia's economic growth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), recorded only 5.02% YoY in Q4 2024, down from 5.04% YoY in Q4 2023 and below the government's 5.2% target set in the macroeconomic basic assumptions of the 2024 State Budget (APBN). The GDP value in Q4 2024 at current prices was IDR 5,674.9 trillion, and at constant prices was IDR 3,296.7 trillion. All expenditure-based components experienced growth. The element with the most extensive distribution was household consumption, contributing 54.04% and growing by 4.94% YoY. Additionally, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), expenditure for capital goods with a useful life of more than one year and not considered consumption goods, contributed 29.15% to total GDP and experienced growth of 5.03% YoY. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -