Consumer Confidence Index: 127.2 Retail Sales: -4.8% MoM* | 0.4% YoY* *preliminary Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dipped slightly in January 2024, driven by a decrease in the assessment of current economic conditions, likely due to government budget efficiency policies. However, consumer expectations for the future improved, potentially influenced by declining interest rates. This shift is also reflected in household spending, with a smaller proportion allocated to consumption and a larger share going towards debt payments. Furthermore, retail sales growth is expected to slow significantly in January 2025, following a period of increased spending during the holiday season. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BRIS' net profit grew 22.83% YoY to IDR7 trillion in FY24. The net margin income IDR17.3 trillion grew by 7.1% YoY in FY24. BRIS recorded a financing growth of 15.9% YoY to IDR278 trillion in FY24. This growth was supported by the development of consumer financing (+16.34% YoY), which contributed 55.9% to BRIS' total FY24 financing Tier-1 ROE increased significantly to 17.77% (+89 bps YoY) in FY24. Fee-based income also increased significantly, with the fee-based ratio rising from 15.80% in FY23 to 17.95% in FY24. The gold business has the potential to be a BRIS performance booster. BRIS's gold business recorded significant growth of +78.2% YoY to IDR12.8 trillion in FY24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.47% and Terminal Growth of 7.38%, we estimate a higher fair value for BRIS of 3,580 (upside potential of 17.44%). Considering BRIS's fair price and relative valuation of around 2.75x 5-year Mean P/B, we maintain our buy rating for BRIS. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BMRI's net profit in FY24 grew limitedly (1.3% YoY), reaching 99% of our FY24 estimate. This growth is in line with the development of Interest Income, which grew 14.1% YoY, although Interest Expense increased higher (+35% YoY). Wholesale Business was able to maintain BMRI's credit growth. BMRI recorded a total credit of Rp1,670.5 trillion, increasing by 19.5% YoY in FY24. The current Account savings account (CASA) ratio grew 52 bps YoY in FY24. BMRI recorded a CASA of IDR1,271 trillion (+8.49% YoY) in FY24, with a CASA ratio recorded at 74.8% (+52 bps) YoY. We estimate interest income can grow 7% YoY in FY25F.Another income optimization comes from fee-basedincome, one of which comes from the adaptation of Livin'. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.87% and Terminal Growth of 3.39%, we estimate BMRI's fair value at 6,325 (9.76x expected P/E). Therefore, we still maintain a buy rating for BMRI with a lower fair value and a potential upside of 29.61%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

12 Februari 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street bergerak mixed di Selasa (11/2). Uncertainty meningkat pada outlook sukubunga acuan the Fed seiring peningkatan potensi eskalasi perang dagang yang dipicu oleh implementasi kebijakan tarif terbaru oleh Pemerintah AS. Uni Eropa menyatakan akan melakukan aksi balasan terhadap penerapan tarif impor 25% atas produk baja dan aluminium mulai 4 Maret 2025 oleh Pemerintah AS. Pasar masih mengantisipasi rencana reciprocal tariff oleh Presiden AS, Donald Trump yang awalnya diyakini pasar akan diumumkan pada Senin (10/2). Dari dalam negeri, pasar kecewa dengan realisasi Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) Indonesia di 127.2 di Januari 2025 yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan di 128 dan dari posisi Desember 2024 di 127.7. Konfirmasi breaklow 6550 akan memvalidasi indikasi losing momentum IHSG dan berpotensi lanjutkan bearish trend. Untuk saat ini waspadai level psikologis 6500 sebelum support level berikutnya di 6400. Top picks (12/2) : AUTO, MBMA, LSIP, AMRT, dan ACES. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

11 February 2025

Wall Street berbalik menguat pada perdagangan Senin (10/2). Movers utama adalah saham-saham produsen baja dan alumunium di AS menyusul rencana implementasi tarif 25% untuk produk impor baja dan alumunium. ECB President, Christine Lagarde menyatakan bahwa inflasi di Eropa berada dalam jalur yang benar menuju target ECB. ECB diyakini akan mempertahankan kebijakan pemangkasan sukubunga acuan yang cukup agresif di 2025. IHSG konfirmasi support breaklow di 6700 dan berpotensi uji support berikutnya di 6550-6600. Stochastic RSI berpotensi losing momentum, jika breaklow 6550. Saham-saham rate-sensitive, khususnya bank-bank berkapitalisasi besar tertekan di Senin (10/2). Kondisi ini diperkirakan masih berlanjut sampai dengan Selasa (11/2). IKK Indonesia di Januari 2025 (11/2) diharapkan mampu meredam tekanan jual di Selasa (11/2). IKK Januari 2025 diyakini tidak bergerak jauh dari posisi Desember 2024 (127.7), bahkan berpeluang sedikit lebih tinggi. Top picks (11/2) : UNVR, PGAS, MEDC, TPIA, dan CLEO.

10 Februari 2025

10 Februari 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street melemah sekitar 1% di Jumat (7/2). Pelemahan tersebut merespon rencana pengumuman kebijakan tarif baru oleh Presiden AS, Donald Trump di Senin (10/2). Kondisi ini dikhawatirkan memicu lonjakan inflasi global. Peningkatan uncertainty risk global di atas berpotensi memicu capital outflow lanjutan dari Pasar Modal Indonesia. IHSG memiliki support critical terdekat saat ini di 6700, dengan support berikutnya di rentang 6550-6600. Sejumlah data domestik, seperti penjualan motor, keyakinan konsumen, dan penjualan ritel di Januari 2025 masih dapat diharapkan untuk meredam aksi jual tersebut. Top picks : BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, BBCA, ASII, dan TLKM. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -