Balance of Payment: US$ 7.9 billion Current Account: US$ -1.1 billion Capital and Financial Account : US$ 8.5 billion Indonesia's Balance of Payments (BOP) surplus increased by 34.1% QoQ to US$7.9 billion in 4Q24. It was supported by a portfolio investment surplus of US$8.5 billion, while the current account recorded a deficit of US$1.1 billion, or 0.3% of Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves grew by 3.9% to US$155.7 billion, equivalent to 6.5 months of import financing throughout 2024. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BI Maintains Interest Rate, Prioritizes Rupiah Stability Amid Global Uncertainty BI 7-day Repo Rate: 5.75% Deposit Facility: 5.00% Lending Facility: 6.50% The Bank of Indonesia's Board of Governors Meeting (RDG BI) maintained the interest rate at 5.75%, with a Deposit Facility Rate of 5.00% and a Lending Facility Rate of 6.50% on February 19, 2025. Additionally, BI observed The Fed's interest rate policy, which is expected to cut rates only once by 25 bps in early 2H25. US Treasury Yields (UST) for 10-year and 2-year bonds are expected to remain high due to fiscal deficit planning of 7.7% and 8.8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, and discussions about eliminating the debt ceiling. The Dollar Index (DXY) also remains strong, reaching its highest level in the past year at 109.77, putting pressure on the rupiah against the US dollar. BI focuses on exchange rate stability to maintain economic growth amid ongoing global turbulence through open market operations in Spot markets, Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF), and Government Securities (SBN) in the secondary market. BI considers its efforts successful in maintaining exchange rates at levels comparable to or in line with the currency pair groups of countries such as China, Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Headline Inflation: 0.50% MoM Headline Inflation: 3.00% YoY Core Inflation: 0.40% MoM Core Inflation: 3.30% YoY U.S. headline inflation rose by 10 basis points to 0.5% MoM in January 2025, from 0.4% MoM in December 2024 and above market expectations of 0.3% MoM. This increase was influenced by a 0.4% MoM rise in the shelter index in January 2025, accounting for nearly 30% of the monthly increase across all goods and services. The energy index rose to 1.1% MoM, with the most significant contributor being the fuel oil index, which increased by 6.2% MoM in January 2025. The food index also increased by 0.4% MoM in January 2025. Additionally, core inflation, which excludes food and energy items, rose by 20 basis points to 0.4% MoM in January 2025 from 0.2% MoM in December 2024. This was due to increased prices for used cars and trucks, as well as hotel accommodation services, which resulted from wildfires in Los Angeles. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Consumer Confidence Index: 127.2 Retail Sales: -4.8% MoM* | 0.4% YoY* *preliminary Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dipped slightly in January 2024, driven by a decrease in the assessment of current economic conditions, likely due to government budget efficiency policies. However, consumer expectations for the future improved, potentially influenced by declining interest rates. This shift is also reflected in household spending, with a smaller proportion allocated to consumption and a larger share going towards debt payments. Furthermore, retail sales growth is expected to slow significantly in January 2025, following a period of increased spending during the holiday season. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

FX Reserves: US$156.1 billion | 0.24% MoM |7.62% YoY Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.24% MoM to US$156.1 billion in January 2025 from US$155.7 billion in December 2024. This increase was influenced by several factors, including the government's global bond issuance, tax and service revenue realization, and Rupiah exchange rate stabilization policies implemented amid continued uncertainty in international financial markets. Furthermore, the current level of foreign exchange reserves remains high, equivalent to 6.7 months of imports or 6.5 months of government external debt payments. It is above the international adequacy standard of 3 months of imports. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

S&P Global PMI Manufacturing Index: 51.2 S&P Global PMI Services Index: 52.9 ISM PMI Manufacturing Index: 50.9 ISM PMI Services Index: 52.8 The US manufacturing sector expanded in early 2025, driven by confidence in the Trump administration’s protectionist policies, including tax cuts and import tariffs. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 50.9, marking the first expansion after 26 months of contraction, with increased demand, production, and employment. Meanwhile, the services sector remained in expansion but slowed due to weaker new orders and extreme weather disruptions. The S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 52.9, and the ISM Services PMI declined to 52.8, as cold weather affected businesses and transportation, while interest rate expectations influenced financial services demand. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

GDP Growth Rate: 5.02% YoY GDP Growth Rate: 0.53% QoQ Full Year GDP Growth Rate 2024: 5.03% Indonesia's economic growth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), recorded only 5.02% YoY in Q4 2024, down from 5.04% YoY in Q4 2023 and below the government's 5.2% target set in the macroeconomic basic assumptions of the 2024 State Budget (APBN). The GDP value in Q4 2024 at current prices was IDR 5,674.9 trillion, and at constant prices was IDR 3,296.7 trillion. All expenditure-based components experienced growth. The element with the most extensive distribution was household consumption, contributing 54.04% and growing by 4.94% YoY. Additionally, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), expenditure for capital goods with a useful life of more than one year and not considered consumption goods, contributed 29.15% to total GDP and experienced growth of 5.03% YoY. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Inflation: MoM:-0.76% YoY: 0.76% Core Inflation: MoM: 0.30% YoY: 2.36% Volatile Food: MoM: 2.95% YoY: 3.07% Administered Price : MoM:-7.38% YoY:-6.41% Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 0.76% YoY in January 2025 from 1.57% YoY in December 2024, recording its lowest level since 2000. This inflation rate was lower than the consensus forecast of 1.88%. Core inflation increased to 2.36% YoY in January 2025 from 2.26% YoY in December 2024. Commodities contributing to core inflation included jewelry, cooking oil, ground coffee, and rice with side dishes. Meanwhile, the volatile food group experienced inflation of 3.07% YoY in January 2025, up from 0.12% YoY in December 2024, primarily due to price increases in red chilies, bird's eye chilies, and fresh fish. Government-regulated prices experienced deflation of 6.41% YoY in January 2025 from inflation of 0.56% YoY in December 2024, with significant contributions from electricity tariffs, airfare, and railway fares. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

GDP Growth Rate 4Q24 Advance Estimated (qoq): 2.30% The Fed Interest Rate: 4.25-4.50% PCE Headline Inflation: 2.60% YoY Unemployment Rate: 4.10% US economic growth expanded by 2.30% QoQ in the first estimate for Q4 2024, down from 3.10% in Q3 2024, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and below market expectations of 2.6%. Nevertheless, the general inflation indicator Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose to 2.60% YoY in December 2024 from 2.40% YoY in November 2024, aligning with market expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in January 2025 is expected by market consensus to remain at 4.1%, with the release scheduled for this week (7/2). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -