9 May 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat di Kamis (8/5). Penguatan dipicu oleh pengumuman trade deals dengan Inggris. Presiden AS, Donald Trump mengingidikasikan bahwa negara-negara dengan trade surplus besar dengan AS kemungkinan masih akan dikenakan tarif tinggi. AS tengah mempersiapkan delegasi untuk melakukan pertemuan dengan delegasi Tiongkok di Swiss pada Sabtu (10/5) dan Minggu (11/5). Trade deal antara AS dengan Inggris tersebut memicu lonjakan pada U.S. 10-year Bond Yield sebesar 11 bps ke 4.39% di Kamis (8/5). Aksi jual juga terjadi pada safe-haven, seperti emas. Harga emas turun 1.7% ke US$3,307.84/troy oz di Kamis (8/5). IHSG berpeluang uji support pada kisaran level 6770 dalam beberapa hari kedepan. Pullback harga saham gold-related diperkirakan masih akan berlanjut, sejalan dengan kecenderungan penurunan appetite pasar terhadap safe-haven pasca pengumuman trade deals. Top picks (9/5) : ICBP, AALI, ASII, PTBA dan INDF. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

TLKM reported 1Q25 revenue of IDR 36.64 trillion (-2.9% QoQ; -2.1% YoY), in line with expectations (Phintas: 23.72%, Cons: 23.60%). The decline was driven by weaker performance in Data, Internet & IT Services, which contracted -5.42% YoY. However, the IndiHome segment grew by +0.41% QoQ (+3.45% YoY) to IDR 6.66 trillion. Operationally, administrative expenses rose by 18.83% YoY due to seasonal effects, while marketing expenses decreased by -40.90% QoQ, reflecting cost efficiency. TLKM recorded an EBITDA of IDR 18.23 trillion (-0.92% QoQ; -6.12% YoY) with a margin of 49.76%, and net profit reached IDR 5.81 trillion (-2.75% QoQ; -4.01% YoY). Telkomsel’s deliberate churn elimination led to a 0.9% YoY decline in subscribers to 158.8 million, though postpaid subscribers increased by 6.2% YoY. ARPU declined to IDR 42.4k, but data consumption grew 5.3% QoQ (+19.78% YoY). IndiHome added 230K new net subscribers, with convergence penetration at 55%. BTS units increased to 278K, including 1,910 5G BTS (+169.1% YoY). Commitment to improving market conditions through starter pack price adjustments is expected to restore market rationality and drive long-term profitability. While this strategy should gradually boost ARPU, it may result in a slight decline in subscriber numbers. As a result, we forecast modest revenue growth of 1.68% YoY for FY25E and 2.46% YoY for FY26F. Despite the flat revenue growth, we expect TLKM’s EBITDA margin to improve, reaching 49.87% in FY25E and 50.37% in FY26F. The company's ability to sustain profitability amid a challenging environment underscores its operational efficiency. With a combination of steady revenue and high interest expenses, we estimate TLKM’s net profit at IDR 22.41 trillion for FY25E, with a net profit margin of 14.69%, highlighting the company’s resilience and capacity for stable financial performance. We maintain a BUY rating with a new target price of IDR 2,950, implying a forward EV/EBITDA of 4.55×/4.33× for FY25F/FY26F. TLKM’s stock trades at a 22.7% discount to the 5-year average, supported by a buyback plan and dividends. Downside risks include ARPU pressure, competition, and weakened purchasing power. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research –Disclaimer On– Contact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id