BNGA recorded 9M26 net profit of IDR4.51 trillion, down 15.5% YoY, mainly due to a 65.2% increase in provision expense. Net profit reached 64% of our FY26 estimate, requiring stronger earnings performance in the remaining quarter to meet the full-year target.

Loan growth remained positive at 6.7% YoY to IDR242.58 trillion, while asset quality improved, with gross NPL declining to 1.81% from 1.98% and LAR falling to 5.7% from 7.8%. However, higher CoC of 1.35% indicates continued credit cost pressure.

Funding growth remained relatively modest, with TPF increasing 1.2% YoY to IDR273.73 trillion, below loan growth. Although CASA grew 4.0% YoY, time deposits declined 14.0%, while LDR increased to 87.69%, highlighting the need to strengthen deposit mobilization and maintain funding efficiency.

Profitability remained under pressure, with NIM declining to 3.82% from 4.00% and ROE falling to 10.93% from 13.54%. The higher CIR of 44.87% and limited NII growth continue to constrain earnings improvement, despite 7.8% growth in non-interest income.

Key risks include higher funding costs that could constrain NIM recovery, weaker than expected earnings growth, and potential deterioration in credit quality in the Auto Loans and Mortgages segments. BNGA’s ability to strengthen CASA growth, manage credit costs, and improve operating efficiency will remain important to support earnings recovery.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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ANTM booked 9M26 revenue of IDR 88.48 trillion (+22.8% YoY), with gold contributing 71% of total revenue. Despite lower gold sales in 3Q26, 9M26 gold revenue increased by 16.6% YoY to IDR 68.41 trillion. Ferronickel and nickel ore revenue also increased by 115.2% YoY and 41.4% YoY, respectively.

Profitability remained solid, with 9M26 gross profit reaching IDR 16.23 trillion (+37.6% YoY) and net profit increasing to IDR 8.84 trillion (+48.0% YoY), supported by higher profit from associates and foreign exchange gains.

Operational performance was mixed, as 9M26 gold sales decreased by 26.0% YoY to 810.7 thousand oz and nickel ore sales declined by 4.5% YoY to 10.7 million WMT. Meanwhile, bauxite sales increased by 48.9% YoY to 1.6 million WMT, ferronickel sales grew by 70.8% YoY to 13,971 tonnes Ni, and Chemical Grade Alumina sales increased by 8.8% YoY to 146.6 thousand tonnes.

We estimate FY26F revenue at IDR 120.93 trillion (+42.9% YoY), EBITDA at IDR 16.12 trillion (+67.4% YoY), and net profit at IDR 11.65 trillion (+61.6% YoY), supported by solid ASPs, higher sales volumes, and profit from associates, particularly BAI and WBN.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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HMSP recorded top-line growth in 9M26, driven by the SKM segment. Revenue rose 4.50% YoY to Rp87.51 trillion, achieving a 76% run rate against our FY26 estimate. SKM and SFP grew 15.58% and 10.44% YoY, respectively, while SKT, SPM, and SPT recorded declines.

HMSP delivered solid bottom-line growth in 9M26. Gross profit increased 3.93% YoY to Rp16.01 trillion, while operating profit rose 21.56% to Rp8.35 trillion. Net profit grew 44.53% YoY to Rp6.52 trillion, supported by higher other income and lower other expenses.

Indonesia supported PMI’s tobacco sales growth in 3Q26. Indonesia contributed to conventional cigarette volume growth alongside Turkey and Egypt, while Jakarta recorded higher HTU sales. PMI’s HTU in-market sales outside Europe and Japan grew 14.4% YoY, highlighting the potential of alternative tobacco products.

Despite solid earnings growth in 9M26, the company’s outlook remains subject to diverging segment performance and competitive pressures. Key risks include the widespread distribution of illegal cigarettes, intensifying competition, and a low free float that may constrain stock liquidity.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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ELSA booked 3Q26 revenue of IDR 4.55 trillion (+14.5% QoQ), bringing 9M26 revenue to IDR 12.13 trillion (+15.8% YoY). The integrated upstream oil and gas services segment recorded revenue of IDR 1.55 trillion (+46.4% QoQ), supporting 3Q26 gross profit of IDR 427 billion (+16.9% QoQ).

Net profit in 9M26 increased to IDR 682 billion (+29.4% YoY), supported by lower finance costs following sukuk repayment in 2025 and higher non-operating income, mainly from foreign exchange gains.

ELSA recorded production test potential of 5,605 BOPD and 2.96 MMSCFD at GNK-114, while Semberah-206 exceeded its initial production target by more than two times. The company also completed the Tedong seismic survey and secured a 3D non-captive seismic survey contract in Musi Banyuasin.

We estimate FY26F revenue at IDR 15.57 trillion (+7.4% YoY), with gross profit of IDR 1.56 trillion, EBITDA of IDR 1.78 trillion, and net profit of IDR 844 billion (+17.5% YoY).

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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BBCA’s net profit grew 4.2% YoY to Rp45.2 trillion, reaching 77% of our FY26 estimate, with stronger quarterly earnings indicating improving operating momentum.

BBCA’s strong CASA, which reached 85.6% of DPK, continues to support funding cost efficiency and provides a competitive advantage in maintaining margins, despite NIM compression to 5.4%.

Corporate and SME lending remain the primary growth drivers, supporting 12.6% YoY loan growth, while continued weakness in consumer and auto loans may limit broader loan expansion.

Improving asset quality, reflected in lower NPL, LAR, and CoC ratios, provides room for sustainable loan growth, although selective consumer lending remains important to contain future credit risks.

Digital adoption and higher fee-based income strengthen BBCA’s earnings diversification, helping offset limited NII growth and support profitability amid ongoing margin challenges.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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October 28th, 2026

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Selasa (27/10).

Penguatan dipicu oleh saham teknologi serta koreksi harga minyak.

The Fed diperkirakan mempertahankan suku bunga tetap (28/10).

Adanya negosiasi menimbulkan harapan penurunan konflik memicu koreksi harga minyak.

Fitch Ratings memperkirakan ekonomi Indonesia tumbuh melambat di bawah level 5% pada 2H26.

Harga minyak ditutup melemah hampir 2% (27/10).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 1 bps di level 4.995% (27/10).

Harga emas spot ditutup menguat 0.9% di level US$4,051/troy oz (27/10).

Diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak sideways pada kisaran 5,180-5,300.

Top picks (28/10): UNTR, HMSP, CTRA, LSIP dan AADI.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Phintraco Sekuritas Sector Update
Cement Sector
Aditya Prayoga

Cement Sector: Modest Growth, Persistent Margin Pressure

>National cement consumption grew 7.9% YoY to 48.13 million tons in 9M26, exceeding the five-year average and our expectations. Growth was supported by the bulk cement segment, which expanded 9.3% YoY, outpacing bag cement growth of 7.4% YoY. Consequently, bulk cement’s contribution to total national consumption increased to 28.92%, from 28.56% in 9M25.

>We revised up our FY26F domestic cement consumption estimate to 66.10 million tons from 62.0 million tons, reflecting solid sales realization through 9M26. However, demand growth is expected to normalize in FY27F, with consumption projected to reach 67.1 million tons (+1.51% YoY). Despite the gradual recovery, installed capacity of approximately 120 million tons per year is expected to keep industry utilization at only 55.9% in FY27F, leaving oversupply as a structural challenge.

>Margin recovery is expected to remain constrained by elevated input and logistics costs. ASP increases are projected at only 1%-2% YoY, while COGS per ton could rise by more than 2% YoY. Although Bloomberg projects average Brent crude oil prices of USD 92.41/bbl and coal prices of around USD 120/MT in FY27F, geopolitical risks could keep energy prices elevated. The implementation of the Zero ODOL policy from January 2027 could further increase logistics costs per ton, adding pressure to cement producers’ margins.

> Upside risks include stronger consumer purchasing power, accelerated infrastructure projects, lower energy prices, and better-than-expected ASP realization. Downside risks include prolonged oversupply, intensifying price competition, higher-than-expected energy and distribution costs, delays in infrastructure projects, and weaker domestic cement demand.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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BBNI’s 9M26 net profit increased by 6.6% YoY to IDR 16.12 trillion, supported by 13.6% YoY growth in net interest income (NII) to IDR 33.24 trillion. Net profit reached 79% of our FY26 estimate of IDR 20.48 trillion.

Loans grew by 22.2% YoY to IDR 992.51 trillion, supported by solid lending activity. Going forward, growth opportunities remain in sectors with structural demand, including natural resources, FMCG, telecommunications, and data centers.

Third party funds grew by 20.4% YoY to IDR 1,124.59 trillion, while the CASA ratio declined to 65.2% from 65.6% in 9M25 as time deposits grew faster than CASA. The LDR increased to 87.9% from 86.9%, highlighting the importance of managing funding costs.

Asset quality improved, with the gross NPL ratio declining to 1.9% from 2.0% in 9M25. NPL formation and write-offs fell by 34.6% YoY and 47.4% YoY to IDR 1.8 trillion and IDR 6.2 trillion, respectively, indicating lower pressure from the legacy loan portfolio.

BBNI’s FY26 outlook remains supported by high quality loan growth and stronger low cost, transaction based deposits through the Wondr application. However, higher funding costs and potential asset quality deterioration from rapid loan expansion remain key risks to profitability and sustainable growth.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Senin (26/10).

Penguatan dipicu oleh saham sektor teknologi seiring dengan rencana IPO Anthropic.

Investor memperkirakan the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga tetap pada pertemuan pekan ini (28/10).

Pelemahan Rupiah menjadi salah satu risiko utama bagi pasar keuangan domestik.

Pemerintah menyiapkan stimulus transportasi untuk libur Natal dan Tahun Baru 2026-2027.

Harga minyak bergerak melemah, namun masih di atas level US$100/barel (26/10).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield stabil di level 4.986% (26/10).

Harga emas spot ditutup menguat 0.6% di level US$4,020/troy oz (26/10).

Diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak sideways pada kisaran 5,280-5,450.

Top picks (27/10): UNVR, BRIS, JSMR, PWON dan SMGR.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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October 27th, 2026

Net profit rose 7.1% YoY to IDR 1.01 trillion in 9M26, reaching 68% of our FY26 estimate.

Total financing increased 12.5% YoY to IDR 11.03 trillion, while quarterly net profit grew 6.0% QoQ to IDR 356 billion.

CASA grew 17.2% YoY to IDR 3.77 trillion, outpacing third-party deposit growth of 6.2% YoY.

The NPF ratio declined to 2.2% from 2.9% in 9M25, while NPF coverage increased to 252% in 3Q26.

BTPS’s CAR of 59.0% supports selective financing growth, while rising CIR and the sustainability of asset quality improvements remain key factors to monitor.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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October 26th, 2026

Net profit increased 20.7% YoY to IDR 45.5 trillion in 9M26, reaching 82% of our FY26 estimate of IDR 55.6 trillion.

NII grew 6.5% YoY to IDR 69.8 trillion, while NIM declined 35 bps YoY to 4.43% amid rising funding costs.

Loans grew 16.0% YoY, supported by SME and mortgage lending, while the automotive segment remained relatively weak.

The NPL ratio improved to 1.02%, although the increase in LaR to 6.76% warrants close monitoring.

Operational efficiency and fee-based income growth will support earnings, while lower time deposit costs and a stronger CASA mix remain key to NIM recovery.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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October 26th, 2026