KLBF recorded 6M26 revenue growth of 14.1% YoY to IDR19.48 trillion, supported by growth across all business segments. Distribution and logistics remained the key contributor, growing 26.6% YoY to IDR7.20 trillion.

Gross profit increased only 4.2% YoY to IDR7.32 trillion, as cost of revenue increased 21.0% YoY, mainly driven by higher distribution and production costs.

Margin pressure persisted across most segments, with GPM declining to 37.6% from 41.1%, reflecting higher imported raw material costs amid Rupiah depreciation.

Net profit declined 2.7% YoY to IDR1.97 trillion, while GPM, OPM, and NPM decrease to 37.6%, 12.5%, and 10.1%, respectively, due to higher selling and operating expenses.

Liabilities increased 22.5% YtD to IDR7.31 trillion, driven by a sharp increase in short-term bank loans for working capital. Despite this, KLBF maintained a healthy capital structure, with DER at 0.28x and DAR at 0.22x.

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U.S. labor market conditions weakened in July 2026, despite the unemployment rate declining to 4.1%, as the improvement was largely driven by a shrinking labor force and a lower participation rate of 58.9%, the lowest since September 2021. NFP contracted by 23 thousand, significantly below expectations, while wage growth and job openings also continued to slow. Overall, weakening employment, hiring demand, and wage growth point to a softening labor market, potentially exacerbated by tighter immigration policies and posing downside risks to U.S. economic growth.

ICBP recorded revenue of IDR41.86 trillion (+11% YoY) in 1H26, supported by volume growth across all business segments, with nutrition & special foods, dairy, and noodles leading growth.

Gross profit and EBIT increased 9.5% and 8% YoY, respectively, but margins declined due to higher production and operating costs.

Net profit declined 33% YoY to IDR3.70tn, mainly due to a sharp increase in finance costs from unrealized forex losses on USD-denominated bonds. Further Rupiah depreciation could continue to pressure earnings given ICBP’s USD2.75bn outstanding bonds.

Management maintained its FY26 guidance of 5–7% revenue growth and 20–22% EBIT margin, supported by continued export xpansion, new product launches, and strong demand across all business segments.

We maintain our recommendation, underpinned by ICBP’s resilient operating performance, strong market leadership, and continued business expansion. Key downside risks to our investment case include weaker-than-expected consumer purchasing power, further depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah against the US dollar, and heightened commodity price volatility.

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BSDE reported weaker 6M26 earnings, with revenue and net profit declining 25.7% YoY and 53.3% YoY. Recurring revenue remained resilient, growing 18.6% YoY and raising its contribution to 21% of total revenue.

Marketing sales reached IDR5.12 trillion in 6M26, up 0.8% YoY and representing 51% of the FY26 target. BSD City remained the key contributor at approximately 66%, supported by strong residential and commercial demand.

Profitability remained resilient, with GPM improving to 66.5% from 63.5%, while net profit recovered 17.5% QoQ to IDR325 billion in 2Q26.

BSDE’s outlook is supported by VAT incentives, LTV relaxation, and BSDE “Royal Key” program. Contract liabilities also increased to IDR7.22 trillion from IDR6.72 trillion in FY25, providing visibility for future revenue recognition.

We project FY26 net profit at IDR2.40 trillion. Despite 6M26 earnings reaching only 25% of our estimate, we consider the target achievable, supported by potential acceleration in revenue recognition during 2H26.

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BBNI delivered stronger 6M26 profitability, with net income rising 6.6% YoY to IDR10.8 trillion, supported by 14.2% YoY NII growth despite NIM compression to 3.6%.

Loan growth remained robust at 24.4% YoY to IDR968.5 trillion, while TPF grew 22.3% YoY. However, the CASA ratio declined to 65.4% due to government fund placements.

Asset quality remained healthy, with Gross NPL stable at 1.9%, while ROE improved to 13.4% and CAR stood at 18.1%, providing sufficient capacity for further loan expansion.

Management lowered FY26 NIM guidance to 3.3–3.5% from 3.5–3.8%, while maintaining loan growth guidance at 8–10%, reflecting stronger loan growth but more persistent margin pressure.

We lowered our FY26 net income estimate to IDR19.7 trillion (+1.8% YoY), reflecting a more gradual earnings recovery amid higher funding costs and continued pressure on loan yields.

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U.S. Nonfarm Payroll mengalami penurunan jumlah pekerjaan sebesar 23 ribu dan berada di bawah perkiraan penambahan 80 ribu pada Juli 2026. Meski demikian, tingkat pengangguran AS turun dari 4.2% menjadi 4.1% seiring penurunan jumlah angkatan kerja sebesar 264 ribu dan tingkat partisipasi menjadi 61.4% pada Juli 2026.

Cadangan devisa Indonesia sebesar US$ 145.3 miliar setelah pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah dan intervensi BI di pasar valuta asing pada Juli 2026. Cadangan devisa tersebut setara dengan pembiayaan 5.5 bulan impor atau 5.3 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah, serta berada di atas standar kecukupan internasional sekitar 3 bulan impor pada Juli 2026.

August 10th, 2026

August 10th, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Jumat (7/8).

Data nonfarm payrolls mencatat pengurangan 23 ribu lapangan kerja di Juli 2026 (7/8).

Dari AS akan dirilis CPI, PPI, penjualan ritel dan indeks Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Probabilitas the Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga di September menurun.

Dari domestik, akan dirilis indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (10/8), penjualan ritel dan penjualan sepeda motor (11/8), serta penjualan mobil (14/8).

Rebalancing MSCI dijadwalkan pada 12 Agustus 2026.

Turunnya peluang kenaikan suku bunga the Fed, penguatan harga emas dan koreksi harga minyak akan menjadi katalis positif bagi pergerakan IHSG.

Secara teknikal IHSG berpotensi menguji level 6,488-6,500 pada pekan ini.

Top picks pekan ini: TLKM, EXCL, ANTM, BBRI dan TPIA.

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Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves edged down to US$145.3 billion in July 2026 from US$145.6 billion in June 2026 (Figure 1). The development was primarily influenced by tax and services receipts as well as the government’s issuance of global bonds, amid external debt repayments and policy measures to stabilize the Rupiah exchange rate. The reserve position was equivalent to 5.5 months of imports, or 5.3 months of imports and government external debt servicing. It remained well above the international adequacy standard of around three months of imports. Bank Indonesia (BI) assessed that the current level of foreign exchange reserves remains sufficient to support external sector resilience and help maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Kamis (6/8).

Koreksi indeks disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga minyak mentah dan yield US-Treasury.

Diberitakan adanya kerangka kerja Iran dan Oman untuk membuka kembali Selat Hormuz dan melarang pelintasan kapal-kapal AS.

Nonfarm payrolls Juli 2026 diperkirakan meningkat menjadi 80 ribu (7/8).

Investor menantikan data cadangan devisa RI bulan Juli (7/8).

Indeks harga properti RI diperkirakan tumbuh 0.8% YoY di 2Q26 (7/8).

Pemerintah akan menggelar lelang SBSN dengan target indikatif sebesar Rp10 triliun (11/8).

Harga minyak mentah menguat sekitar 3% (6/8).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik lebih dari 4 bps di level 4.664% (6/8).

Harga emas spot menguat 0.6% di level US$4,271/troy oz (6/8).

Diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak sideways pada kisaran 6,300-6,400.

Top picks (7/8): PGEO, PTRO, CUAN, SMGR dan ASII.

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U.S. Initial Jobless Claims naik tipis sebesar 1 ribu menjadi 199 ribu pada pekan terakhir Juli 2026, lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pasar sebesar 202 ribu. Klaim lanjutan meningkat 24 ribu menjadi 1.8 juta yang menunjukkan pasar tenaga kerja AS tetap kuat dan berada dalam kondisi penyerapan tenaga kerja penuh. Sementara itu, klaim awal dari pegawai federal naik 32 menjadi 450 di tengah upaya pemerintah mengurangi jumlah pekerja sektor publik.

Pemerintah menyiapkan paket stimulus pada semester kedua 2026 untuk mengantisipasi dampak El Nino yang mulai aktif sejak Juni dan berpotensi memengaruhi berbagai sektor perekonomian. Nilai anggaran dan rincian program belum ditetapkan karena Kementerian Keuangan masih menunggu usulan dari kementerian teknis, termasuk kemungkinan pemberian insentif bagi sektor pertanian.

August 7th, 2026

U.S. PMI data for July 2026 indicated continued economic resilience, with both manufacturing and services remaining in expansion territory. Manufacturing growth was supported by stronger production and new orders, while services activity accelerated on solid domestic demand and improved business confidence. However, employment conditions weakened in the services sector, and rising energy, raw material, and tariff-related costs intensified input and selling-price pressures amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

CTRA reported weaker 6M26 earnings, with revenue and net profit declining 11.7% YoY and 11.2% YoY, due to slower unit handovers. Recurring revenue remained resilient, growing 4.6% YoY, while NPM improved to 21.1%.

Marketing sales reached IDR4.69 trillion in 1H26 (-18.2% YoY), representing 50% of the FY26 target, reflecting softer purchasing power. Landed residential remained the key contributor, while high rise sales declined 37% YoY.

Greater Jakarta remained the main growth driver, supported by the successful launch of Citra Homes Halim, which recorded a 92% take up rate and IDR565 billion in sales.

The strong performance of Citra Homes Halim supports several new launches in 2H26, strengthening CTRA’s marketing sales outlook.

We remain positive on CTRA, supported by its diversified residential portfolio, continued government incentives, and stronger than expected 2Q26 economic growth, which should support demand recovery in 2H26.

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