The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% MoM in July 2026 from a 0.4% MoM decrease in June 2026. This was mainly driven by an increase of shelter index (0.1% MoM), which contributed for roughly two-thirds of the monthly inflation total increase. On the other hand, the U.S. annual CPI rose but at a slower rate of 3.4% YoY in July 2026 from 3.5% YoY in June 2026, largely driven by a slowing price increase in energy commodities. The U.S. monthly core inflation that excludes food and energy components rose to 0.2% MoM in July 2026 from a stagnant in June 2026, while the U.S. annual core inflation slowed to 2.5% YoY in July 2026 from 2.6% YoY in June 2026.

PT Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul Tbk (SIDO) reported a 19.80% YoY decrease in revenue to IDR1.47 trillion in 6M26, driven primarily by a 40.81% YoY decrease in the herbal medicine and supplements segment to IDR639 billion, due to the normalization of distribution inventories, while was completed in May 2026, with Tolak Angin’s market share remaining stable at 71%.

The food and beverage segment emerged as the leading contributor, increasing by 10.77% YoY to IDR760 billion, or 51.85% of total revenue (vs 37.54% in 6M25), driven by C+Collagen, new variants of Alang Sari RTD, and energy drinks, while international sales increased by 28% YoY, contributing 12.5% of total sales.

Net profit decreased 44.43% YoY to IDR333.65 billion, with GPM decreasing to 50.51% (vs 56.92%), OPM to 28.82% (vs 40.80%), and NPM to 22.75% (vs 32.84%), as the decrease in revenue outpaced the 7.85% YoY reduction in cost of sales, resulting in gross profit falling 28.84% YoY to IDR740.75 billion.

Pressurewas further reflected in an 11.64% YoY increase in operating expenses to IDR352.59 billion, driven by a 20.10% YoY increase in salaries and allowances to IDR119.89 billion and an 11.89% YoY increase in advertising and promotional costs to IDR159.49 billion, resulting in EBITDA decreasing 40.20% YoY to IDR479.59 billion.

SIDO has revised its FY26 sales target down by 10%, with revenue expected to recover in FY26 as inventory normalization ends and volumes in the herbal medicine and supplements segment rebound.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Revenue grew 6% YoY to IDR67.96 trillion in 1H26, supported by solid growth across both the food and non-food segments.

The food segment remained the main revenue driver, contributing 71% of total revenue at IDR48.58 trillion, up 7% YoY, while the non-food segment grew 6% YoY to IDR19.37 trillion.

Online sales continued to gain traction, increasing 11% YoY and contributing 8.4% of total revenue, reflecting the growing role of AMRT’s omnichannel strategy.

Outside Java became the strongest regional growth contributor, generating the largest revenue of IDR27.52 trillion and growing 12% YoY, compared with 3% YoY growth in Java excluding Greater Jakarta and 1% YoY in Greater Jakarta.

AMRT continued its expansion strategy despite concerns over rural market penetration, suggesting that the Company still sees significant growth opportunities beyond major urban areas and remains focused on strengthening its nationwide presence.

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Phintraco Sekuritas Company Update
PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk – EXCL.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>EXCL recorded improved performance in 2Q26, with EBITDA growing 3.08% QoQ to IDR 5.57 Trillion and net loss narrowing to IDR 277 Billion (vs. IDR 717 Billion in 1Q26). Revenue increased to IDR 12.17 Trillion (+2.99% QoQ; +16.12% YoY), bringing 1H26 revenue to IDR 23.99 Trillion (+25.72% YoY), reaching 57.75%/57.54% of our/consensus estimates.

>EBITDA in 1H26 grew 24.71% YoY to IDR 10.97 Trillion, reaching 58.04%/57.56% of our/consensus estimates. Nevertheless, the EBITDA margin slightly declined to 45.73% (vs. 46.10% in 1H25), reflecting higher post-merger costs and network integration requirements.

>Revenue momentum remained solid, although the 2Q26 growth mix showed normalization in the data business. Data and digital services revenue declined 1.85% QoQ (+11.34% YoY) to IDR 10.66 Trillion, bringing cumulative revenue to IDR 21.53 Trillion in 1H26 (+23.27% YoY).

>Monetization quality remained a key positive, with higher ARPU offsetting subscriber-base rationalization. Blended ARPU in 1H26 increased 23.95% YoY to IDR 47.1K, driven by prepaid and postpaid ARPU of IDR 45.9K (+24.05% YoY) and IDR 85.5K (+1.79% YoY), respectively.

>On a quarterly basis, blended ARPU remained relatively stable at IDR 46.9K (-0.85% QoQ; +30.28% YoY), while data consumption increased 5.17% QoQ (+6.55% YoY) to 4,067 PB. Total subscribers declined 15.98% YoY to 69.4 Million, primarily due to a 16.60% YoY decline in prepaid subscribers to 67.3 Million. We view this as a rationalization of low-value subscribers, with higher ARPU and data consumption indicating an increasingly productive subscriber base.

>Cost efficiencies began to emerge in 2Q26, with operating expenses declining 1.14% QoQ to IDR 11.79 Trillion. This was supported by lower depreciation expenses (-6.14% QoQ), infrastructure expenses (-3.44% QoQ), salaries and employee benefits (-7.36% QoQ), and sales and marketing expenses (-12.55% QoQ).

>Key downside risks include: (1) slower synergy realization, (2) higher integration costs, and (3) increasing competitive intensity.

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August 13th, 2026

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed pada Rabu (12/8).

Pergerakan indeks dipengaruhi oleh data inflasi dan situasi konflik di Timur Tengah.

Inflasi CPI AS melambat menjadi 3.4% YoY di Juli 2026, sesuai estimasi (12/8).

CME FedWatch menunjukkan peluang FOMC mempertahankan suku bunga pada bulan September meningkat menjadi 62% dari 54%.

Rebalancing indeks MSCI mengeluarkan beberapa saham Indonesia.

Investor nantikan Pidato Kenegaraan Presiden Prabowo untuk menyampaikan RUU APBN 2027 dan Nota Keuangan pada Jumat (14/8).

Harga minyak mentah menguat terbatas (12/8).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik kurang dari 1 bps di level 4.69% (12/8).

Harga emas spot naik 1% di level US$4,409/troy oz (12/8).

IHSG berpotensi menguji level 6,400, namun sentimen yang variatif berpeluang membuat indeks bergerak mixed.

Top picks (13/8): PTRO, TPIA, BRPT, BMRI dan BBCA.

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U.S. Consumer Inflation melambat untuk bulan kedua berturut-turut menjadi 3.4% YoY pada Juli 2026 dari 3.5% YoY pada Juni, sejalan dengan ekspektasi, seiring meredanya dampak kenaikan harga energi akibat perang dengan Iran. Inflasi bensin turun menjadi 24.6% YoY dari 26.7% YoY, bahan bakar minyak menjadi 39.1% YoY dari 42.9% YoY. Sementara secara bulanan, inflasi AS naik 0.1% MoM pada Juli 2026 dari deflasi 0.4% MoM Juni 2026.

Posisi utang pemerintah Indonesia tercatat naik 3.76% MoM menjadi Rp10,293.69 triliun pada Juni 2026, setara dengan 41.26% terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Mayoritas utang, atau sekitar 87.11% dari total utang, bersumber dari penerbitan Surat Berharga Negara (SBN), sementara sisanya adalah komponen pinjaman.

PWON delivered stable 6M26 performance, with revenue broadly flat YoY at IDR3.37 trillion, supported by 7.4% YoY growth in recurring revenue to IDR2.89 trillion. Recurring revenue contribution increased to 86% of total revenue, driven by retail and hospitality.

The recurring portfolio remained resilient, with retail occupancy reaching 828,000 sqm and RevPAR improving across all hospitality categories. The tenant mix also continued to shift toward experience-led consumption, supporting long-term asset quality.

Marketing sales reached IDR565 billion in 1H26, down 6.3% YoY, with high-rise properties contributing 67%. Around 42% of sales were supported by the VAT incentive program, highlighting demand sensitivity to government stimulus.

PWON is expanding its recurring asset base through three major projects worth IDR10.2 trillion, which will add 190,000 sqm of retail NLA and 1,390 hotel rooms. Including other pipeline projects, retail NLA is expected to grow 34% by 2035 and hotel room capacity by 76% by 2031.

Capital expenditure reached IDR412 billion in 1H26, up 74% from the same period last year, mainly allocated to Pakuwon Mall Surabaya Phase 5. We remain positive on PWON, supported by resilient recurring income, strong asset quality, and a growing long term development pipeline.

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U.S. Existing Home Sales turun lebih dalam 1.7% MoM menjadi 4.05 juta unit pada Juli 2026 dari penurunan 1.4% MoM pada Juni 2026 dan sedikit di bawah ekspektasi pasar sebesar 4.06 juta unit. Penjualan melemah di wilayah Selatan (-3.1% MoM) dan Midwest (-2.0% MoM). Meski demikian, secara tahunan penjualan masih meningkat 2.4% YoY pada Juli 2026,dengan pasar berpotensi menguat jika rata-rata suku bunga KPR kembali mendekati 6.0%.

Penjualan ritel Indonesia masih mengalami kontraksi 3% YoY pada Juni 2026, tetapi membaik dari kontraksi 3.9% YoY dari Mei 2026. Secara bulanan, penjualan ritel tumbuh 0.7% MoM pada Juni 2026 dari kontraksi 1.5% MoM pada Mei 2026. Penjualan ritel secara tahunan diperkirakan naik 0.9% YoY, sedangkan penjualan ritel secara bulanan diperkirakan turun 0.3% MoM pada Juli 2026.

August 12th, 2026

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Selasa (11/8).

Pelemahan indeks terutama disebabkan karena kenaikan harga minyak mentah.

Investor akan mencermati data inflasi CPI (12/8) dan PPI (13/8).

Iran menuntut agar AS mencairkan dana Iran yang dibekukan di luar negeri sebagai syarat pembukaan Selat Hormuz.

Data penjualan ritel Indonesia turun 3.0% YoY di Juni 2026 (11/8).

Penjualan mobil di Indonesia meningkat 33.3% YoY pada Juli 2026 (11/8).

Harga minyak mentah menguat lebih dari 1% (11/8).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 1 bps di level 4.692% (11/8).

Harga emas spot turun 0.4% di level US$4,369/troy oz (11/8).

Diperkirakan IHSG akan menguji level support di 6,180-6,200.

Top picks (12/8): MEDC, TKIM, ULTJ, CUAN dan BUKA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined to 116.8 in July 2026 from 117.8 in June 2026. However, the index still reflects that consumer confidence was still in optimistic territory. Consumer optimism is supported by consumer perception of current economic conditions and expectations of future economic conditions which are in the optimistic zone but have weakened. The Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) was recorded at 107.9 in July 2026 from 109.2 in June 2026 and the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) declined to 125.7 in July 2026 from 126.4 in June 2026. In addition, retail sales on an annual basis are expected to increase by 0.9% YoY in July 2026.

INDF’s revenue grew 9.5% YoY to IDR65.53tn in 1H26, broadly in line with our expectations, supported by growth across all business segments, particularly Consumer Branded Products and Bogasari.

Gross profit and EBIT increased 7.8% and 14% YoY, respectively, with EBIT margin improving to 20.28%. However, net profit fell 19.1% YoY to IDR4.72tn due to unrealized forex losses from ICBP’s USD-denominated bonds, while core profit remained resilient, growing 7% YoY.

The Consumer Branded Products segment grew 11.2% YoY to IDR41.74tn, contributing 64% of total revenue. Bogasari also performed strongly, with revenue rising 9.5% YoY on higher flour sales volume and ASP.

FFB production declined 4% YoY, but CPO production increased 3% YoY to 338kt, supported by a higher extraction rate of 21.5%. The company maintained a total planted area of 278k hectares as of June 2026.

Key risks include weaker consumer purchasing power, volatility in CPO and wheat prices, and further Rupiah depreciation.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Phintraco Sekuritas Company Update
PT Sumber Tani Agung Resources Tbk – STAA.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>STAA reported solid performance in 1H26, with net profit increasing 15.3% YoY to IDR 757bn. Revenue surged 69.1% YoY to IDR 6.1tr, reaching 53.9% of our FY26F estimate, primarily driven by full contributions from the refinery and fractionation segments. However, the revenue mix shift toward the lower-margin downstream business normalized GPM to 29.6% (vs 32.7% in 1H25) and NPM to 12.5% (vs 18.3% in 1H25).

>STAA’s operational performance showed a sequential recovery, despite remaining weaker on a cumulative basis. FFB production declined 7.2% YoY to 478k tons in 1H26. Nevertheless, production momentum improved in 2Q26, with FFB output increasing 16.0% QoQ to 257k tons (vs 221k tons in 1Q26), consistent with stronger seasonality heading into 2H.

>Lower FFB production reduced processed FFB volume by 18.7% YoY to 810k tons, resulting in CPO and PK production declining 16.8% and 19.1% YoY to 176k tons and 39k tons, respectively. Nevertheless, processing efficiency improved, with OER rising to 21.8% (vs 21.3% in 1H25). Meanwhile, the refinery ramp-up remained on track, with downstream product sales volume reaching 214k tons.

>We expect STAA’s growth momentum to continue in FY26F, supported by higher production and an increasing downstream contribution. We forecast production growth of 9.8% YoY, supported by its relatively young plantation profile with an average age of c.14 years and an improvement in FFB yield to 24.5 tons/ha (vs. 24.2 tons/ha in FY25).

>Higher upstream volume and increasing refinery and fractionation utilization should drive FY26F revenue growth of 74.8% YoY to IDR 11.25tr. However, the revenue mix shift toward downstream products is expected to normalize GPM to 27.3% (vs 32.7% in FY25). Despite this margin pressure, higher volume and operating scale should lift net profit to IDR 1.5 Trillion, with NPM normalizing to 13.6% (vs 16.6% in FY25).

>Key downside risks include: (1) CPO price volatility, (2) regulatory changes, and (3) higher input costs.

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China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded 0.5% YoY in July 2026, slowing from a 1% YoY rise in June 2026. The inflation slowdown was mainly driven by food prices deflation. Food prices were continued to experience a 1.5% YoY deflation in July 2026 from a 1.6% YoY deflation in June 2026 due to lower pork prices amidst abundant supply and weak consumption. On the producer side, inflation is also slowing down, marked by an increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) of 3.5% YoY in July 2026 from 4.1% YoY in June 2026 due to the easing of energy cost pressures caused by the recovery of the oil shipping supply chain in the Strait of Hormuz. On the producer side, inflation is also slowing down, marked by an increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) of 3.5% YoY in July 2026 from 4.1% YoY in June 2026 due to the easing of energy cost pressures caused by the recovery of the oil shipping supply chain in the Strait of Hormuz.