ERAA booked revenue growth of 17.35% YoY to IDR76.61 trillion in FY25. Almost all business segments experienced an increase in sales, except for the operator products segment, which decreased by 7.29% YoY to IDR1.55 trillion in FY25.

The cellular phone and tablet segment remained the main contributor to revenue, with sales increasing by 14.58% YoY to IDR60.1 trillion in FY25. Meanwhile, the accessories and other segment booked the highest sales growth of 39.71% YoY to IDR11.93 trillion in FY25, in line with the addition of several new brands to the business portfolio, such as CHAGEE (food & nourishment), XPENG (EV), and ANTA & Wilson (sports apparel brands).

ERAA’s net profit grew 17.26% YoY to IDR1.31 trillion in FY25 (exceeding our estimates). Aside from revenue growth, net profit was also driven by higher other operating income compared to FY24, primarily due to significant foreign exchange gains of IDR202 billion (vs. IDR19 billion in FY24), and other income reached IDR186 billion in FY25 (vs. IDR85 billion in FY26).

Business plan for 2026. ERAA will continue to develop an integrated retail ecosystem, supported by measured expansion, an enhanced customer experience, and a relevant brand portfolio, to create sustainable, long-term value. This initiative is expected to strengthen ERAA’s position in the industry.

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PT Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk – INTP.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>INTP recorded pressured performance throughout FY25, with revenue reaching IDR17.7 trillion (-4.4% YoY), slightly below both our estimates and consensus (Phintraco: 98%; Cons: 94%). From a pricing perspective, the company maintained a stable blended ASP at IDR911 thousand/ton (+0.7% YoY), reflecting disciplined pricing amid industry pressure.

>However, this came at the expense of price competitiveness versus more aggressive second-tier players, leading to a decline in market share (FY25: 29.1% vs FY24: 29.7%) and sales volume. Volume fell -2.7% YoY, deeper than the industry contraction (-2.2% YoY), amid oversupply and still-weak purchasing power. Pressure was also evident in the ready-mix segment, which contracted significantly (-20.0% YoY), mainly due to distribution constraints from heavy-duty vehicle restrictions in several regions.

>COGS declined by -4.2% YoY to IDR12.0 trillion, allowing GPM to remain relatively stable at 32.5% (vs 32.7% in FY24). The decline was primarily driven by lower fuel and power costs (-7.6% YoY to IDR4.95 trillion), the largest cost component (>50% of COGS), in line with coal price normalization. Efficiency gains were also reflected in lower fuel and power per sales volume at IDR248k/ton (-5.0% YoY), indicating improved cost management despite volume pressure.

>At the bottom line, INTP posted net profit of IDR2.25 trillion (+12.0% YoY), with margins improving to 12.68% (vs 10.83% in FY24), exceeding both our estimates and consensus. This was mainly supported by a one-off gain of approximately IDR669 billion from the divestment of its mortar business.

>The company provides a relatively constructive outlook for FY26F, targeting cement sales growth of 1–2%, supported by improving demand visibility, particularly from government programs such as the 3 million housing initiative and continued infrastructure projects (LRT/MRT). However, margin expansion remains challenging, with coal prices currently at ~USD135/MT (vs ~USD110/MT in FY24), posing potential cost pressures amid still-limited demand.

>Additional risks stem from Rupiah depreciation against the US dollar, given significant exposure to import-based costs. As mitigation, management targets increasing alternative fuel usage to 29% in FY25 and gradually to 42% by FY30F, which we view as key to maintaining a competitive cost structure amid energy price volatility.

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INCO recorded FY25 revenue of US$990.20 million (+4.19% YoY), mainly supported by a US$102 million contribution from nickel ore sales, although nickel matte sales declined to US$888.58 million (-6.5% YoY).

Cost of revenue increased to US$714.32 million (+5.8% YoY), mainly driven by higher contractor services costs and other operating expenses related to production activities.

Net profit increased 31.7% YoY to US$76.06 million, partly supported by US$24.49 million in non-operating income. Meanwhile, net profit margin improved to 7.68% from 6.08% in FY24.

INCO continues to advance its expansion agenda across three major mining and processing areas, namely Pomalaa, Morowali/Bahodopi, and Sorowako, which are expected to strengthen its long-term growth profile through downstream development projects.

Furthermore, a more supportive long-term nickel market outlook, alongside the progress of downstream projects, could further strengthen the long-term prospects of INCO’s expansion strategy.

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Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Rabu (1/4).

Harapan akan de-eskalasi di kawasan Timur Tengah masih menjadi pemicu penguatan indeks.

Trump mengatakan Iran menghendaki gencatan senjata, Trump akan mempertimbangkan jika Selat Hormuz dibuka kembali.

Trump akan menyampaikan pidato nasional untuk memberikan pembaruan penting tentang Iran pada Rabu pukul 9 malam waktu AS, atau Kamis pagi pukul 8 WIB (2/4).

Harga minyak mentah melanjutkan koreksi  (2/4).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 2 bps ke level 4.332% (1/4).

Harga emas spot menguat 2.5% di level US$4,784/troy oz (1/4).

Surplus neraca perdagangan sebesar  US$1.28 miliar di Februari 2026 dari US$0.96 miliar di Januari 2026 (1/4).

Inflasi Maret 2026 melambat menjadi 0.41% MoM dan 3.48% YoY dari 0.68% MoM dan 4.76% YoY  (1/4).

Diperkirakan IHSG berpeluang melanjutkan rebound dan menguji level 7200-7300.

Top picks (2/4): MNCN, HRTA, JPFA, BUVA dan CDIA.

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U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI naik ke 52.7 pada Maret 2026 dari 52.4 pada Februari 2026 dan berada di atas perkiraan pasar sebesar 52.5 Angka ini menunjukkan pertumbuhan aktivitas manufaktur yang paling kuat sejak Agustus 2022, didorong oleh peningkatan produksi yang lebih tinggi sebesar 55.1 pada Maret 2026, dari 53.5 pada Februari 2026.

Tingkat inflasi Indonesia naik 3.48% YoY pada Maret 2026, lebih kecil dari peningkatan 4.76% YoY pada Februari 2026. Tingkat inflasi ini utamanya didorong oleh komponen Administered Price yang meningkat signifikan sebesar 6.08% YoY pada Maret 2026 meski lebih rendah dari 12.66% YoY pada Februari 2026. Tingginya tingkat inflasi pada komponen administered price disebabkan oleh masih adanya low base effect, yang disebabkan oleh diskon tarif listrik pelanggan pascabayar.

April 2nd, 2026

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate rose by 3.48% YoY in March 2026, lower than the 4.76% YoY increase recorded in February 2026. Inflation was primarily driven by the Administered Prices component, which increased by 6.08% YoY in March 2026, though this was lower than the 12.66% YoY increase in February 2026. The elevated inflation in administered prices was mainly due to a low base effect stemming from electricity tariff discounts. Although the electricity discount program for prepaid customers ended in March 2025, postpaid electricity tariffs remained affected by the discount, leading to the persistence of the low base effect. Core inflation rose by 2.52% YoY in March 2026, lower than the 2.63% YoY increase in February 2026, with key contributing commodities including gold jewelry, academic fees, cooking oil, house rent, rice with side dishes, and automobiles. Meanwhile, the volatile food component recorded inflation of 4.24% YoY, mainly driven by broiler chicken meat, rice, and chicken eggs (Figure 1).

Indonesia’s Trade Balance Surplus increased to US$1.27 billion in February 2026 from US$0.95 billion in February 2026 (Figure 1). The surplus was driven by a non-oil and gas surplus of US$2.19 billion in March 2026, supported by commodities such as animal and vegetable fats and oils, mineral fuels, and iron and steel. Meanwhile, the oil and gas trade balance recorded a deficit of US$0.92 billion in March 2026, mainly contributed by crude oil, refined petroleum products, and natural gas. The trade surplus has been maintained for 70 consecutive months since May 2020, with the United States contributing the largest surplus of US$3.11 billion and China recording the largest deficit of US$4.99 billion during the January–February 2026 period.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat signifikan pada Selasa (31/3).

Penguatan indeks di tengah harapan de-eskalasi Timur Tengah yang kembali muncul.

Trump akan terbuka untuk mengakhiri kampanye militer meskipun Iran memegang kendali atas Selat Hormuz.

Dilaporkan bahwa Iran akan mengakhiri perang jika diberikan jaminan keamanan.

Harga minyak mentah mengalami koreksi  (31/3).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 2 bps ke level 4.321% (31/3).

Harga emas spot menguat 3.46% di level US$4,667/troy oz (31/3).

Pemerintah mengumumkan harga BBM belum naik, WFH sekali dalam seminggu bagi ASN, efisiensi di kementerian/lembaga, serta percepatan pelaksanaan B50.

Investor akan menantikan indeks manufacturing PMI, neraca perdagangan dan inflasi (1/4).

IHSG diperkirakan berpotensi rebound karena sentimen positif dari ekspektasi akan de-eskalasi perang, dengan menguji level resistance di 7100-7200.

Top picks (1/4): GJTL, EXCL, BKSL, AMRT dan INCO.

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U.S. Job Openings turun 358 ribu ke 6.882 juta pada Februari 2026, di bawah ekspektasi pasar sebesar 6.92 juta. Penurunan Job Openings terjadi pada sektor Accommodation and Food Services sebesar 211 ribu, serta pada Mining sebesar 12 ribu pada Februari 2026.

Perkiraan inflasi Indonesia oleh konsensus pasar adalah sebesar 0.56% MoM pada Maret 2026. Angka ini lebih rendah dibandingkan inflasi pada Februari 2026 sebesar 0.68% MoM. Angka ini diperkirakan didorong oleh penurunan harga emas dunia ditengah peningkatan permintaan saat musim Ramadan-Idul Fitri.

April 1st, 2026

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed pada Senin (30/3).

Indeks sempat menguat di awal sesi karena pembelian selektif saham yang dianggap sudah murah.

Tekanan jual di pasar obligasi mereda setelah adanya beberapa komentar positif dari Chairman the Fed Jerome Powell.

Powell mengatakan the Fed masih bersikap wait and see akan dampak kenaikan harga minyak terhadap inflasi dan ekonomi AS.

Harga minyak mentah berlanjut menguat (30/3) setelah Presiden Trump mengancam akan menghancurkan sumur minyak Iran.

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 9 bps ke level 4.348% (30/3).

Harga emas spot menguat 0.5% di level US$4,513/troy oz (30/3).

Pemerintah berencana mengumumkan secara resmi kebijakan yang ditempuh terkait dampak konflik di Timur Tengah pada hari ini (31/3).

Diperkirakan IHSG bergerak sideways dikisaran level 7000-7200.

Top picks (31/3): BUMI, DEWA, MAPI, MBMA, dan SMDR.

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March 31st, 2026

U.S Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index turun menjadi -0.2 pada Maret 2026 dari 0.2 pada Februari 2026, mengindikasikan tidak ada perubahan aktivitas bisnis. Akan tetapi, company outlook index turun hampir 7 poin ke -3.5 pada Maret 2026. Di sisi lain, outlook uncertainty index naik 20 poin dari bulan sebelumnya menjadi 26 pada Maret 2026, dan merupakan angka tertinggi sejak April 2025.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) merevisi proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada Maret 2026 dari 5% YoY menjadi 4.8% YoY. Penyesuaian ini dilakukan seiring terjadinya eskalasi konflik di kawasan Timur Tengah yang minumbulkan kekacauan bagi ekonomi global. Selain itu OECD juga merevisi tingkat inflasi utama Indonesia akan naik menjadi 3.4% YoY dari 3.1% YoY.

MIDI booked revenue growth of 3.79% YoY to IDR20.64 trillion in FY25 (slightly below our estimates). The food segment remained the main contributor to revenue, with a contribution of 55% to total revenue, or IDR11.35 trillion in FY25, lower than IDR11.67 trillion in FY25.

By location, only areas outside Java Island experienced sales growth, increasing 16.87% YoY to IDR9.83 trillion in FY25. Meanwhile, sales in the Greater Jakarta area and Java outside Greater Jakarta decreased by 9.06% YoY and 2.31% YoY, respectively, in FY25.

On the bottom line, MIDI’s net profit grew 62.43% YoY to IDR772 billion in FY25. Aside from revenue growth, net profit was also supported by a decrease in operating expenses of 1.9% YoY to IDR4.43 trillion in FY25. On the other hand, MIDI also booked better non-operating performance, with financial income increased to IDR13 billion and financial expenses decreased to IDR42 billion in FY25.

MIDI is targeting high single-digit revenue growth for FY26, driven by plans to expand by 200 new stores with a focus on market penetration outside Java Island. In addition, MIDI will also build a new sub-warehouse in Banjarmasin, South Kalimantan, in 2Q26. Overall, these steps indicate MIDI’s focus on strengthening market penetration and distribution efficiency, especially in outside Java Island.

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