PWON delivered strong profitability growth in 1Q26, with net profit rising 28.78% YoY to IDR 512 billion, supported by revenue growth of 5.83% YoY and improving operational efficiency.

Recurring revenue increased 8.28% YoY to IDR 1.43 trillion and contributed 87% of total revenue, reflecting the resilience and stability of PWON’s recurring-based business model amid softer development sales.

Gross profitability improved, with GPM increasing to 57.18% from 55.22% in 1Q25, as cost of revenue increased only 0.93% YoY despite ongoing expansion activities.

Marketing sales reached IDR 316 billion in 1Q26, with 34% supported by VAT incentives, while future growth is expected to be driven by high-rise developments in Bekasi and Surabaya alongside optimization of existing projects.

Going forward, PWON is expected to maintain solid earnings growth supported by resilient recurring income, stable mall occupancy, improving hotel performance, and continued margin expansion, supported by its strong balance sheet and healthy cash position.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors Meeting (BGM) raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 5.25% at the May 2026 RDG, after holding it at 4.75% for eight consecutive months. In addition, the Deposit Facility Rate and Lending Facility Rate were also increased by 50bps to 4.25% and 6.00%, respectively, on May 20, 2026. This policy aligns with Bank Indonesia’s focus on maintaining Rupiah exchange rate stability amid worsening global economic conditions stemming from the war in the Middle East, which has increased financial market volatility and triggered capital outflows from emerging markets. This was also influenced by global financial market sentiment, as a Fed Funds Rate (FFR) cut is not expected until the end of 2026 and is projected to increase in 2027, in line with persistently high U.S. inflation. In addition, U.S. Treasury yields have continued to rise amid expectations of a larger fiscal deficit.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Selasa (20/5).

Harga minyak dan yield obligasi turun karena optimisme konflik Iran dapat diselesaikan.

Bank sentral Tiongkok mempertahankan suku bunga pinjaman utamanya tetap (20/5).

Pemerintah akan mewajibkan ekspor komoditas sumber daya alam dilakukan melalui BUMN yang ditunjuk Pemerintah sebagai pengekspor tunggal.

BI menaikkan BI Rate sebesar 50 bps menjadi 5.25% (20/5).

Tingkat pertumbuhan kredit menjadi 9.98% YoY di April 2026 dari 9.49% YoY di Maret 2026 (20/5).

Harga minyak mentah koreksi lebih dari 5% (20/5).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 9 bps ke level 4.576% (20/5).

Harga emas spot menguat 1% di level US$4,532/troy oz (20/5).

Diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak variatif pada kisaran support 6200-6250 dan resistance pada 6400-6450.

Top picks (21/5): PTBA, CTRA, UNVR, BBTN dan WIIM.

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May 21st, 2026

Gubernur Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Anna Paulson, menyatakan dukungannya untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level saat ini sebesar 3.75% pada FOMC meeting Juni 2026. Ia menegaskan bahwa penurunan tingkat suku bunga boleh dilakukan setelah ada kemajuan yang berkelanjutan dalam menekan laju inflasi.

Bank Indonesia meningkatkan suku bunga acuannya sebesar 50bps menjadi 5.25% pada Mei 2026 dari 4.75% pada April 2026. Hal ini ditujukan untuk memperkuat Rupiah, menahan risiko imported inflation, dan menjaga inflasi tetap berada pada kisaran target pemerintah sebesar 2.5%±1%.

ANTM’s revenue rose 12.1% YoY to Rp87.8 trillion in 1Q26, supported mainly by gold (82% contribution). EBITDA reached Rp12.3 trillion with 14% margin, while net profit surged 58% YoY to Rp3.66 trillion amid higher gold prices and better operational efficiency.

Nickel, ferronickel, and bauxite production declined yearly in 1Q26, while gold production remained relatively stable at 0.71 tons, continuing to provide strong value contribution despite lower volume contribution.

ANTM’s Revenue is projected to grow steadily on the back of higher ASP assumptions across all segments, with improving profitability reflected in higher GPM and NPM through FY28F.

ANTM continues strengthening its EV battery and aluminium ecosystem through projects including HPAL plant, RKEF plant, NKA Downstream project partnering with Huayou, Gresik precious metals plant, and the Mempawah SGA refinery.

Main risks include global commodity price volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, as well as uncertainty surrounding mineral royalty policies and tariff determination, which may affect ANTM’s operational performance and profitability going forward.

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SMRA booked revenue of IDR 2.23 trillion in 1Q26, growing 6.2% YoY, supported by stable growth from both recurring revenue (+6.1% YoY) and development revenue (+6.2% YoY). Net profit remained relatively stable at IDR 318 billion amid margin normalization and higher operating expenses.

1Q26 net profit accounted for 27.8% of our FY26 estimate, while total revenue reached approximately 21.0% of our full-year forecast. This indicates earnings performance remains broadly in line with expectations despite a softer property market environment.

SMRA recorded solid marketing sales of IDR 1.20 trillion in 1Q26, increase from IDR 877 billion in 1Q25 and representing around 23% of its FY26 target of IDR 5.2 trillion. Greater Jakarta remained the main contributor, while landed houses continued to dominate total sales mix.

Recurring income continued to show stable growth, supported by the retail mall and hospitality segments. Mall revenue increased 6% YoY with occupancy rates remaining strong at 84%–97%, while estate and property management revenue grew 11% YoY, supporting cash flow stability.

SMRA remains focused on integrated township development through residential expansion and recurring income growth. The company continues to develop Summarecon Tangerang as a new township while expanding its commercial ecosystem through Summarecon Mall Makassar, supported by favorable economic growth prospects and VAT incentives.

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Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Selasa (12/5).

Penurunan indeks dipicu oleh kurangnya terobosan antara AS dan Iran serta dimulainya kembali aksi jual obligasi global.

Defisit APBN mencapai Rp164.4 triliun atau setara 0.64%  PDB per 30 April 2026.

Presiden Prabowo berencana pidato tentang Kerangka Ekonomi Makro dan Pokok-Pokok Kebijakan Fiskal (KEM-PPKF) RAPBN 2027 di DPR (20/5).

Menurut konsensus, BI Rate diperkirakan naik 25 bps menjadi 5% (20/5).

Harga minyak mentah sedikit turun tetapi masih di atas US$100/barel (19/5).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik lebih dari 4 bps ke level 4.667%  (19/5).

Harga emas spot melemah 2% di level US$4,474/troy oz (19/5).

IHSG diperkirakan berpotensi uji level support di 6250-6300.

Top picks (20/5): ASII, JPFA, AMRT, ULTJ dan BRIS.

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Tingkat inflasi umum Kanada naik menjadi 2.8% YoY pada April 2026 dari 2.4% YoY pada Maret 2013, mencapai level tertinggi dalam dua tahun, meskipun masih berada di bawah konsensus pasar sebesar 3.1% YoY dari Timur Tengah akibat perang di kawasan tersebut yang mendorong kenaikan harga bahan bakar dan listrik.

Gubernur Bank Indonesia mengatakan bahwa arah kebijakan moneter 2026 akan lebih memprioritaskan stabilitas ekonomi ketimbang mendorong pertumbuhan. Hal ini disebabkan oleh tingginya suku bunga AS dan dan tekanan geopolitik global, mendorong penguatan dolar AS dan memicu pelarian modal dari negara berkembang.

May 20th, 2026

TUGU booked a solid 1Q26 performance amid PSAK 117 implementation and rising global geopolitical uncertainty, with net profit increasing 36.4% YoY to IDR 277 billion, supported by a 31.5% YoY rise in insurance service revenue to IDR 461 billion.

Underwriting quality remained well maintained, particularly in the energy and marine segments, while operating profit increased to IDR 452 billion despite an 8.1% YoY decline in investment income due to financial market normalization. As of 1Q26, net profit has reached around 26% of our FY26 estimate.

TUGU continues to maintain strong fundamentals, supported by an RBC ratio of 410.9% in FY25, significantly above the regulatory minimum of 120%, providing ample capacity for business expansion and risk absorption.

TUGU has also maintained its AM Best A- international rating for eight consecutive years, reinforcing its credibility among global insureds and reinsurers, particularly in the energy and marine sectors, whilst management continues to apply prudent underwriting amid rising geopolitical risks.

Danantara’s plan to consolidate state-owned insurance companies by 2026 places TUGU in a strategically important position, supported by its strong relationship with Pertamina, international rating stability, and established role within Indonesia’s national energy insurance ecosystem.

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Phintraco Sekuritas Initiation Report
PT Gudang Garam Tbk – GGRM.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>The Indonesian cigarette industry has undergone one of its most challenging periods over FY15–FY25, marked by cumulative **tobacco excise hikes of c.109%**, weakening consumer purchasing power, and increasingly visible downtrading trends toward lower-priced products. Industry dynamics have shifted materially, reflected in **declining market share for the premium SKM segment**, **rising contribution from SKT & SKL products**, as well as slower industry volume growth. These conditions have significantly pressured profitability across major cigarette producers, including GGRM.

>Despite the challenging industry backdrop, **we believe GGRM remains fundamentally supported by its strong market position**, extensive nationwide distribution network, and large-scale operational footprint, particularly within the Machine-Made Kretek Cigarette (SKM) segment. **Supported by more than 60 years of operational experience and nationwide distribution** integration through PT Surya Madistrindo, **GGRM continues to maintain one of the strongest distribution capabilities in the domestic cigarette industry**.

>Entering FY26F, we believe GGRM could begin to show gradual signs of earnings normalization following several years of pressure on volumes, margins, and operating leverage.** We estimate FY26F net profit could recover to c.IDR 2.5 trillion (+61% YoY)**, supported by lower financing costs, gradual operational recovery, and improving cost structure. **Our key FY26F–FY28F assumptions** include: 1) ASP growth of c.2–3% annually, 2) no further excise tax hikes over the next several years, and 3) gradual sales volume recovery with low-single digit growth supported by a more stable pricing environment.

>We also see room for gradual margin recovery going forward, supported by stabilizing excise expenses, which historically accounted for >80% of total COGS. In our view, **a more stable excise environment** combined with **improving sales volumes** could gradually lift gross profit margin toward 10%–11% over FY26F–FY28F. In addition, GGRM continues to maintain a very solid balance sheet profile, supported by positive free cash flow generation, very low leverage, and a projected transition from net debt of IDR5.7 trillion FY24 to net cash of c.IDR5.2 trillion by FY26F.

>Currently, GGRM is trading at c.12.78x FY26F P/E, or around -1 standard deviation below its 10-year historical average valuation. We view the current valuation as relatively attractive, particularly as the market appears to have largely priced in prolonged structural pressures, while the potential for a more stable excise environment and gradual volume recovery could support earnings normalization over the medium term.

Full Report :

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U.S. NAHB Hosing Market Index naik menjadi 37 pada Mei 2026 dari 34 pada April 2026,
melebihi ekspektasi pasar sebesar 35, menunjukkan adanya perbaikan pada sentimen
pengembang rumah. Peningkatan dipengaruhi oleh membaiknya kondisi penjualan saat ini,
ekspektasi penjualan enam bulan ke depan, dan lalu lintas calon pembeli, yang masing-masing
naik 3 poin menjadi 40, 45, dan 25 pada Mei 2026.

Posisi Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) Indonesia tumbuh 3.8% YoY di 1Q26, lebih rendah dibandingkan
pertumbuhan 5.5% YoY di 4Q25. Hal ini dipengaruhi oleh aliran modal masuk asing pada Surat
Berharga Negara (SBN) internasional seiring tetap terjaganya kepercayaan investor terhadap
prospek perekonomian Indonesia.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed pada Senin (18/5).

Sebelumnya indeks melemah lebih dalam akibat sentimen negatif dari tekanan jual di pasar obligasi serta kekhawatiran akan meningkatnya eskalasi AS-Iran.

Presiden Trump mengatakan menunda serangan militer yang direncanakan terhadap Iran pada hari Selasa.

Yield obligasi pemerintah beberapa negara cenderung naik karena kecemasan akan inflasi.

Harga minyak menguat lebih dari 2%, meskipun Presiden Trump menunda serangan ke Iran (18/5).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik kurang dari 1 bps ke level 4.601% (18/5).

Harga emas spot menguat 0.2% di level US$4,548/troy oz (18/5), karena pelemahan Dolar AS.

Tekanan terhadap Rupiah mendorong munculnya perkiraan bahwa BI berpeluang menaikkan BI Rate pada pekan ini.

Diperkirakan IHSG bergerak pada kisaran 6400-6700.

Top picks (19/5): MEDC, ELSA, PGAS, TLKM dan BBCA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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May 19th, 2026