Gubernur The Fed Bank of Dallas Lorie Logan, mengatakan sejumlah pejabat The Fed menilai suku bunga acuan mungkin perlu dinaikkan kembali pada tahun ini apabila tekanan inflasi tetap tinggi, terutama akibat kenaikan biaya energi dan dampak kebijakan tarif yang berpotensi mendorong harga lebih tinggi.

Menteri Keuangan RI Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, mengungkapkan bahwa dalam diskusi dengan Standard & Poor’s (S&P), perhatian utama tertuju pada kondisi fiskal Indonesia, khususnya perkembangan defisit anggaran dan penerimaan negara. Ia menegaskan bahwa posisi fiskal Indonesia masih terjaga dengan baik, didukung oleh perbaikan penerimaan pajak yang tumbuh 22.1% YoY pada Mei 2026. Selain itu, Purbaya menepis spekulasi mengenai potensi penurunan peringkat utang Indonesia dan menyatakan bahwa pemahaman S&P terhadap fundamental ekonomi Indonesia terus membaik.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed pada Kamis (4/6).

Penguatan pada saham-saham sektor kesehatan mengimbangi penurunan di sektor teknologi.

Investor menantikan data nonfarm payrolls yang akan dirilis nanti malam.

Danantara akan terbitkan obligasi dan MTN global.

DPR mengesahkan RUU Pengembangan dan Penguatan Sektor Keuangan (P2SK) menjadi UU (4/6).

Harga minyak turun sekitar 3% (4/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 2 bps ke level 4.471% (4/6).

Harga emas menguat 0.8% di level US$4,466/troy oz (4/6).

Diperkirakan IHSG fluktuatif cenderung melemah dan menguji support di 5700-5800.

Top picks (5/6): ADRO, ANTM, MDKA, TINS dan INCO.

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June 5th, 2026

Indonesia’s Trade Balance surplus declined to US$0.09 billion in April 2026 from US$3.32 billion in March 2026 (Figure 1). Nevertheless, Indonesia’s Trade Balance has continued to record a surplus for 72 consecutive months since May 2020. It was supported by a non-oil and gas trade surplus of US$3.53 billion in April 2026, with animal or vegetable fats and oils, mineral fuels, and iron and steel as the main contributors. Meanwhile, the oil and gas trade balance recorded a deficit of US$3.44 billion in April 2026, mainly driven by deficits in crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas.

Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash Notes
PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk – TLKM.IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>TLKM delivered a relatively resilient 1Q26 performance, with revenue reaching Rp37.19 trillion (+1.50% YoY; +0.17% QoQ), supported by continued strength in the Data, Internet & IT Services segment as the primary growth driver. Revenue from the segment grew 7.12% YoY to Rp23.65 trillion, partially offsetting the ongoing decline in legacy services.

>On the operational side, subscriber trends remained relatively soft, with the mobile subscriber base declining 1.35% YoY to 156.67 million. However, this was more than offset by continued improvement in monetization quality, reflected in blended ARPU of Rp45.10K (+6.37% YoY) and data yield of Rp3.12/MB (vs. Rp2.89/MB in 1Q25). Data traffic also continued to expand (+2.3% YoY), suggesting that revenue growth is increasingly being driven by customer value rather than subscriber additions.

>Meanwhile, legacy services remained under pressure, with voice and SMS revenues declining 59.10% YoY and 19.46% YoY, respectively, in line with the ongoing migration toward OTT platforms. Within the fixed broadband segment, IndiHome revenue declined 4.28% YoY to Rp6.38 trillion amid continued ARPU pressure and intensifying competition across the broadband industry.

>From a profitability perspective, TLKM recorded net profit of Rp4.34 trillion (-21.72% YoY), below our expectations and consensus, with net profit margin contracting to 11.7% (vs. 15.1% in 1Q25). The decline was primarily attributable to higher O&M expenses (+15.5% YoY), driven by increased gaming voucher purchases and higher CPE-related costs, alongside a 3.8% YoY increase in depreciation and amortization expenses following revisions to the estimated useful lives of several network and infrastructure assets.

>Looking ahead, management maintains its FY26 revenue growth guidance of 1–3% YoY. We believe TLKM remains well-positioned to achieve its target, supported by an increasingly rational industry structure, improving customer monetization, and a stronger focus on customer quality. In addition, the ongoing streamlining agenda, with four non-core businesses already divested and a target of 9–10 divestments by 1H26, is expected to enhance management focus on core operations. The planned implementation of ERP Phase 2 in 2H26, with a budget of approximately Rp1.0–1.2 trillion, should further support operational transformation and business simplification efforts.

>Key risks to our view include: (1) weaker consumer purchasing power, (2) a more aggressive competitive environment, (3) higher-than-expected operating cost pressures, and (4) slower-than-expected execution of streamlining initiatives.

Full Report :

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U.S. ISM Service PMI Index naik menjadi 54.5 pada Mei 2026 dari 53.6 pada April, melampaui ekspektasi pasar sebesar 53.8 dan mencerminkan akselerasi aktivitas sektor jasa yang mencapai level tertinggi dalam tiga bulan terakhir. Kenaikan ini didorong oleh pertumbuhan aktivitas bisnis, pesanan baru, dan persediaan yang lebih kuat, namun sektor ketenagakerjaan masih mengalami kontraksi dengan indeks berada di 47.9.

Yield Curve Surat Utang Negara (SUN) mengalami inversi, di mana yield tenor jangka pendek lebih tinggi dibanding tenor jangka panjang. Kondisi ini umumnya dipandang sebagai sinyal bahwa investor memperkirakan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi ke depan.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Rabu (3/6).

Pelemahan indeks dipicu oleh koreksinya saham sektor teknologi dan ketidakpastian negosiasi damai AS-Iran.

Data pertumbuhan lapangan kerja AS di sektor swasta menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang kuat (3/6).

Moody’s menetapkan peringkat PT Danantara Investment Management (DIM) pada Baa2 dengan prospek negatif.

Harga minyak naik sekitar 2% (3/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 3 bps ke level 4.489% (3/6).

Harga emas melemah hampir 1% di level US$4,440/troy oz (3/6).

Jika IHSG ditutup di bawah level 5900, maka berpotensi akan menguji level support berikutnya di 5750-5840.

Top picks (4/6): JSMR, MSIN, ACES, PSAB dan MAPA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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June 4th, 2026

U.S. JOLTs Job Openings meningkat 731 ribu menjadi 7.62 juta pada April 2026, level tertinggi sejak November 2024 dan jauh di atas ekspektasi pasar sebesar 6.88 juta. Kenaikan ini menunjukkan pasar tenaga kerja yang tetap tangguh meskipun menghadapi tekanan kenaikan biaya energi akibat konflik Timur Tengah, dengan peningkatan terbesar terjadi pada sektor jasa profesional dan bisnis.

Inflasi Indonesia meningkat menjadi 3.08% YoY pada Mei 2026 dari 2.42% YoY pada April, melampaui ekspektasi pasar sebesar 2.97% YoY, namun masih berada dalam rentang target Bank Indonesia sebesar 1.5%-3.5%. Kenaikan inflasi terutama didorong oleh lonjakan harga pangan yang mencapai 4.94% YoY, didukung oleh kenaikan harga bahan pokok dan biaya distribusi di berbagai daerah, serta tekanan harga pada sektor perumahan, transportasi, dan restoran.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Selasa (2/6).

Kenaikan indeks karena ekspektasi negosiasi AS-Iran dan sektor AI.

Data pembukaan lapangan pekerjaan di AS naik mencapai 7.62 juta di April 2026 (2/6).

Inflasi tahunan RI menjadi 3.08% YoY di Mei 2026 dari 2.42% YoY (2/6).

Indeks PMI manufaktur naik di level 50 pada Mei 2026 dari 49.1 di April 2026 (2/6).

Surplus neraca perdagangan menjadi US$0.09 miliar di April 2026 dari US$3.32 miliar di Maret 2026 (2/6).

Harga minyak naik lebih dari 1% (2/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 2 bps ke level 4.453% (2/6).

Harga emas spot menguat 0.3% di level US$4,519/troy oz (2/6).

Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi menlanjutkan penguatan dengan menguji level 6220-6280.

Top picks (3/6): AMRT, ENRG, SMGR, SUPA dan SCMA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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June 3rd, 2026

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate increased to 3.08% YoY in May 2026, rising significantly from 2.42% YoY in April 2026. This inflationary pressure was primarily driven by the Volatile Food component, which rose sharply by 6.24% YoY in May 2026, higher than the 3.37% YoY recorded in April 2026. Inflation in the Administered Prices component also accelerated to 2.07% YoY in May 2026 from 1.53% YoY in April 2026. This increase was mainly attributed to higher air transportation fares, non-subsidized fuel prices, and cigarette prices, following the rise in global oil prices and the latest excise tariff adjustments. Meanwhile, Core Inflation increased by 2.59% YoY in May 2026, up from 2.44% YoY in April 2026. Commodities contributing to core inflation included jewelry, gold, higher education academic fees, cooking oil, and prepared rice meals, in line with the National Religious Holidays (HKBN) period, such as Eid al-Adha and the large number of public holidays in May 2026

ITMG posted mixed 1Q26 earnings, with revenue growing 3.1% YoY supported by stronger sales volume, while profitability weakened as gross margin and net profit declined significantly amid margin pressure and softer earnings performance.

Production fell 12% YoY due to heavy rainfall and RKAB uncertainties, although higher sales volume helped offset lower coal ASP and supported topline growth during the quarter.

ITMG continued accelerating diversification into renewable energy through expanding solar PV capacity, while also entering the nickel sector via its stake acquisition in PT Adhi Kartiko Pratama Tbk as part of its long-term strategic portfolio expansion.

The planned implementation of the new export governance system under PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia could pressure margins through potentially higher export costs, longer administrative processes, and operational inefficiencies during the transition phase.

Key downside risks include uncertainties surrounding the implementation of the new export governance framework, potentially higher export-related costs, prolonged administrative processes during the transition phase, as well as geopolitical volatility that could pressure coal prices, market sentiment, and operating costs.

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Senin (1/6).

Penguatan indeks terutama dikontribusikan oleh kenaikan saham sektor teknologi.

Pekan ini investor akan mencermati data tenaga kerja AS.

Inflasi Mei 2026 diperkirakan naik menjadi 3.1% YoY dari 2.42% YoY (2/6).

Indeks manufacturing PMI RI diperkirakan turun di 49.1 di Mei 2026 dari 49.5 (2/6).

Harga minyak menguat lebih dari 4% (1/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 1 bps ke level 4.459% (1/6).

Harga emas spot melemah 0.4% ke level US$4,517/troy oz (1/6).

Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi bergerak sideways di kisaran 6000-6300.

Top picks (2/6): HMSP, INDF, ICBP, MTEL dan GGRM.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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June 2nd, 2026