Global oil prices have experienced a significant increase since late February 2026, in line with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East between the United States and Israel against Iran.

In mid-June 2026, global oil prices were below US$80/Bbl, experiencing a decrease following a peace agreement between the United States and Iran. However, prices remained relatively higher than before the conflict, at around US$65–70/Bbl.

OPEC oil production decreased significantly starting in March 2026, in line with the decrease in production by Middle East countries due to geopolitical tensions between the United States and Israel against Iran since the end of February 2026, making the global oil supply tighter.

The government is targeting national oil production of 1 million barrels per day in 2030. This is part of the government’s efforts to strengthen national energy security, considering that national oil production tends to decrease every year.

Upstream oil and gas investment continues to increase. The government is targeting upstream oil and gas investment of US$16.0 billion, or an increase of 3.9% YoY in 2026. Higher investment is expected to drive exploration activities, the development of new fields, and production optimization, thereby supporting national energy security in the long term.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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The Fed maintained its Federal Funds Rate (FFR) unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting on June 17, 2026. The Fed assessed that US economic activity continued to experience robust growth amid persistent global uncertainty, while US inflation has continued to rise due to geopolitical tensions in Middle East. Going ahead, the Fed is committed to establish a task force to improve the effectiveness of its communication strategy in addressing the continuing inflation rise.

Code : PRDL
Sector : Healthcare
Sub-Sector : Healthcare Equipment

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PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM

Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif :
29 Juni 2026

Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum :
1 Juli 2026 – 7 Juli 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan :
7 Juli 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham :
8 Juli 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI :
9 Juli 2026

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STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM

Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 522,900,000 (lima ratus dua puluh dua juta sembilan ratus ribu) saham biasa atas nama, atau sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 30.00% (tiga puluh koma nol nol persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham dengan nilai nominal Rp50,- (lima puluh rupiah) setiap saham

Nilai Nominal :
Rp50 per lembar saham

Harga Penawaran :
Rp100 – Rp120 per lembar saham

Jumlah Penawaran Umum :
Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp62,748,000,000 (enam puluh dua miliar tujuh ratus empat puluh delapan juta Rupiah)

Penjamin Pelaksana Emisi Efek:
PT Sucor Sekuritas

Penjamin Emisi :
Akan ditentukan kemudian

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Stock Review June 18th, 2025

>Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Rabu (17/6).

>Yield obligasi AS meningkat karena the Fed mengindikasikan kenaikan suku bunga tahun ini.

>Seperti yang diperkirakan the Fed mempertahankan suku bunga tetap di 3.5%-3.75% (17/6).

>Diperkirakan BoE mempertahankan suku bunga tetap di 3.75% (18/6).

>Menurut konsensus diperkirakan RDG BI akan menaikkan BI Rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.75% (18/6).

>Investor menantikan MSCI Global Market Accessibility Review dan rebalancing indeks FTSE (19/6).

>Harga minyak mentah menguat hampir 1% (17/6).

>U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik lebih dari 7 bps di level 4.499% (17/6).

>Harga emas spot melemah 1.03% di level US$4,285/troy oz(17/6).

>Diperkirakan IHSG bergerak sideways cenderung melemah pada kisaran 6100-6350.

>Top picks (18/6): MAPI, MSIN, JSMR, HEAL dan ESSA.

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The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di kisaran 3.50%-3.75% pada pertemuan Juni 2026, sesuai ekspektasi pasar, sekaligus menjadi rapat pertama di bawah kepemimpinan Ketua The Fed yang baru, Kevin Warsh. Proyeksi terbaru menunjukkan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS tahun 2026 diperkirakan melambat menjadi 2.2% YoY, sementara proyeksi inflasi PCE direvisi naik tajam menjadi 3.6% YoY, mencerminkan tekanan inflasi yang masih tinggi di tengah ketidakpastian akibat konflik di Timur Tengah. Meski demikian, aktivitas ekonomi dan pasar tenaga kerja tetap dinilai solid, dengan sebagian besar pejabat The Fed masih membuka peluang kenaikan suku bunga lebih lanjut tahun ini.

Bank Indonesia berhasil melelang Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) tenor 352 hari yang jatuh tempo pada Juni 2027 senilai Rp42.6 triliun. Permintaan investor tercatat sebesar 1.12 kali dari jumlah yang ditawarkan, dengan yield saat ini (17/6) sebesar 7.64%.

U.S. Housing Starts turun 15.4% MoM pada Mei 2026, dengan multi-family housing starts dan single-family housing starts masing-masing turun 41.6% dan 1.9%. Selain itu, U.S. Building Permits turun 0.7% MoM menjadi 1.42 juta unit (annualized) pada Mei 2026 yang disebabkan oleh melemahnya izin untuk bangunan.

Menteri Keuangan RI Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, menilai meredanya konflik antara AS dengan Iran berpotensi memberikan ruang fiskal yang lebih longgar bagi pemerintah. Penurunan harga minyak yang mendekati asumsi APBN diperkirakan akan mengurangi kebutuhan subsidi energi, sehingga anggaran negara dapat dialokasikan lebih besar untuk membiayai berbagai program prioritas pemerintah.

June 17th, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup mixed pada Selasa (16/6).

Euforia dari kesepakatan perdamaian sementara antara AS-Iran mereda.

Fed diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga tidak berubah (17/6).

Bank of Japan menaikkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 25 bps menjadi 1% (16/6).

Data penjualan ritel Tiongkok turun 0.6% YoY di Mei 2026 (16/6).

Harga minyak mentah melemah lebih dari 5% di bawah level US$80/barel (16/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 3 bps di level 4.435% (16/6).

Harga emas spot menguat 0.8% di level US$4,338/troy oz(16/6).

Diperkirakan IHSG pada bergerak pada rentang 6150-6400.

Top picks (17/6): BMRI, BBCA, MYOR, UNVR dan ANTM.

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>Coal prices have surged 42% YTD to US$151.25/t, the highest level since September 2023, driven by Indonesia’s production quota cut, higher oil prices, and geopolitical tensions that have increased demand for coal as a substitute for natural gas.

>Despite an 8% YoY decline in China’s coal imports during May 2026, the impact on global coal markets remains limited as elevated LNG and natural gas prices continue to support coal consumption across major Asian economies.

>Rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have strengthened the investment case for coal by increasing energy supply risks, supporting higher oil and gas prices, and improving coal’s competitiveness as an alternative fuel source.

>Indonesia introduced several policy changes in 2026, including lower production quotas, a proposed windfall tax, higher DMO allocation, coal gasification projects worth Rp164tn, and a new export governance framework through PT DSI that is expected to be fully implemented from 2027.

>We remain constructive on the sector given supportive coal prices, resilient Asian demand, and long-term growth from downstream and diversification initiatives, although regulatory changes remain key risks to monitor.

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MEDC booked revenue growth of 19.24% YoY to US$668.3 million in 1Q26. This growth was driven by increased revenue in almost all business segments, except for the power segment, which decreased by 2.19% YoY to US$43.4 million in 1Q26, despite power sales increasing by 20.8% YoY to 1,053 GWh following the completion of the Ijen and ELB expansion projects in 2025.

E&P oil and gas revenue increased by 11.38% YoY to US$420.6 million in 1Q26, driven by the addition of 24% participation interest in Corridor, new production from Forel and Terubuk in South Natuna Block B, and increases in average oil and gas prices of 3.9% YoY to US$75.1/bbl and 1.4% YoY to US$7.2/mmbtu, respectively.

MEDC’s net profit increased by 251.44% YoY to US$72.2 million in 1Q26, driven by a share of profit from associates and joint ventures of US$44.6 million, compared to a loss of US$20 million in 1Q25. On the other hand, other expenses decreased to US$1.2 million in 1Q26, primarily due to foreign exchange losses turning into gains.

MEDC has a strategic position as an integrated oil and gas producer with significant exposure to oil prices. MEDC has a portfolio of upstream oil and gas assets spread across Indonesia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. The exploration and production (E&P) business remains the primary contributor to the Company’s revenue and EBITDA, placing MEDC in an advantageous position as global oil prices remain at high levels.

MEDC has entered a phase of stronger production growth following the successful operation of several strategic oil and gas projects resulting from investments made over the past few years. The operation of the Forel and Terubuk fields in Natuna, which have a production capacity of approximately 30 mboepd, has become the primary catalyst for increased production volumes while also strengthening the Company’s operating cash flow.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Code : JELI
Sector : Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Sub-Sector : Processed Foods

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PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM

Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif :
29 Juni 2026

Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum :
1 Juli 2026 – 3 Juli 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan :
3 Juli 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham :
6 Juli 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI :
7 Juli 2026

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STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM

Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 350,000,000 (tiga ratus lima puluh juta) saham biasa atas nama, atau sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 25.93% (dua puluh lima koma sembilan tiga persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham dengan nilai nominal Rp100,- (seratus Rupiah) setiap saham
Nilai Nominal :
Rp100 per lembar saham

Harga Penawaran :
Rp900 – Rp1,120 per lembar saham

Jumlah Penawaran Umum :
Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp392,000,000,000 (tiga ratus sembilan puluh dua miliar Rupiah)

Penjamin Pelaksana Emisi Efek:
PT Sucor Indonesia

Penjamin Emisi :
Akan ditentukan kemudian

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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**Phintraco Sekuritas Initiation Sector Report**
Tobacco Sector
_Aditya Prayoga_

>The tobacco sector recorded a strong profitability recovery in 3M26 despite continued pressure on industry demand. **Aggregate net profit rose 78.6% YoY to IDR3.7 trillion**, supported by a 3.1ppt expansion in GPM to 19.2%. **The recovery was primarily driven by GGRM, which delivered a 6.9ppt YoY margin expansion through production cost efficiencies, particularly in excise and advertising expenses**, while HMSP also recorded a 1.0ppt YoY improvement in GPM to 18.4%.

>**Despite the earnings recovery, topline pressure remained evident across the industry**. Aggregate **sector revenue declined 8.1% YoY to IDR48.9 trillion** amid ongoing consumer downtrading toward more affordable cigarette products. **HMSP delivered a relatively more resilient performance, supported by 43.8% YoY growth in SFP revenue**, while **GGRM continued to face broad-based weakness across its conventional cigarette portfolio**.

>Indonesia’s tobacco industry continues to face the **impact of cumulative excise tax increases of c.105.9% during FY15–FY25**, which have pressured industry volumes and accelerated consumer downtrading. However, **we believe industry conditions are set to improve in FY26 following the government’s decision to maintain excise tax rates unchanged**, which should help support volume stabilization and margin recovery. **This outlook is further reinforced by increasingly aggressive enforcement against illegal cigarettes**.

>Beyond conventional cigarettes, **smoke-free products (SFP) are emerging as one of the most attractive long-term growth opportunities in the tobacco industry**. While conventional cigarettes still accounted for c.82.5% of the global tobacco market in FY25, the **HTP segment is projected to grow at a 63.2% CAGR during FY25–FY30**. Despite this trend, **HTP penetration in Indonesia remains low at only c.0.6%**, highlighting substantial room for future growth.

> Key risks to our view include : 1) the resumption of excise tax hikes, 2) weaker consumer purchasing power, 3) slower SFP adoption, and 4) weaker-than-expected enforcement against illegal cigarettes

Full Report:

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Global macroeconomic pressures remain key challenges for Indonesia’s financial sector in 2026, driven by Rupiah depreciation, rising energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and persistently high global inflation, prompting central banks to maintain tight monetary policies.

Bank Indonesia raised the BI Rate by 75 bps to 5.50% in June 2026 to support Rupiah stability and contain inflationary pressures, while the Fed is expected to maintain a higher for longer interest rate stance amid elevated US inflation.

Despite higher interest rates, Indonesia’s banking sector continued to record solid loan growth and resilient liquidity, supported by strong investment loan expansion, improving CASA ratios, and relatively stable third party fund growth.

Big banks are expected to maintain strong profitability in 2026–2027, with BMRI and BBNI projected to drive earnings growth through robust loan expansion, while BBCA continues to benefit from its dominant low-cost funding base and strong asset quality.

The Islamic finance and insurance sectors continue to show favorable long term prospects, supported by growing sharia financing demand, digital banking expansion, and industry consolidation following OJK Regulation No. 23/2023 aimed at strengthening capital and improving efficiency.

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Higher BI Rate and Rupiah depreciation became the main pressures on the property sector in 1Q26, reflected in slowing property loan growth and weakening residential demand, particularly in the middle-income segment.

Consumer purchasing power showed signs of weakening, indicated by lower consumer confidence, slowing retail sales, and contracting household income, while high mortgage rates and rising financing costs continued to weigh on property demand.

Government incentives remained key supports for the residential market, including VAT incentives for homes priced below IDR 2 billion, the FLPP housing program, and the 3 Million Homes Program, which are expected to help maintain demand stability amid interest rate pressures.

The primary property market remained under pressure, with IHPR growth slowing and total primary market sales declining 25.67% YoY, particularly in small-scale housing. Rising construction costs, licensing challenges, and elevated mortgage rates continued to limit sales recovery.

Marketing sales performance among property developers remained mixed in 1Q26, >reflecting differences in product mix, target market exposure, and sales strategies. Going forward, interest rate stabilization and continued government incentives will be key factors supporting a gradual sector recovery.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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