Indonesia’s inflation rate was recorded at 2.88% YoY in July 2026 from 3.34% YoY in June 2026. According to its components, all components including core inflation, administered price inflation, and volatile inflation, headline inflation. Core inflation was recorded at 2.76% YoY with the largest contribution to inflation at 1.76% in July 2026. The second largest contributor to inflation was the administered price component, which recorded an inflation of 3.58% YoY with a 0.70% contribution to inflation in July 2026. Lastly, the volatile component recorded inflation of 2.52% YoY with an inflation contribution of 0.42% in July 2026.

Indonesia’s Trade Balance recorded a deficit improvement of US$0.45 billion in June 2026 from a deficit of US$1.61 billion in May 2026. The deficit stemmed from the oil and gas sector’s trade deficit which was recorded to have improved to US$3.49 billion in June 2026 from a deficit of US$3.76 billion in May 2026, driven by petroleum products and crude oil. In addition, the improvement in Indonesia’s trade balance deficit was supported by an increase in the non-oil and gas sector’s trade surplus to US$3.04 billion in June 2026 from US$2.15 billion in May 2026. Commodities that contribute to the surplus in the non-oil and gas sector include vegetable animal fats and oils, mineral fuels, and iron and steel.

BBCA reported a 6M26 net profit of IDR29.55 trillion (+1.8% YoY), representing 48% of our FY26 estimate. Earnings remained resilient despite stable NII and tighter industry liquidity, supported by a 5.4% NIM and low credit cost of 0.4%.

Loan growth accelerated to 8.0% YoY, driven by the corporate, commercial, and consumer segments. Meanwhile, TPF grew 7.9% YoY, with CASA rising 10.2% YoY and maintaining an industry leading CASA ratio of 84%, supporting funding cost resilience.

Asset quality and liquidity remained healthy, with Gross NPL stable at 1.8% and LDR increasing to 80.7%, providing sufficient room for future loan expansion while maintaining a conservative liquidity profile.

BBCA continues to strengthen its digital ecosystem through myBCA and broader AI adoption to enhance customer experience, operational efficiency, data analytics, and risk management, supporting its long-term competitive advantage.

We revised our FY26–FY27 net profit estimates to IDR59.11 trillion (+2.7% YoY) and IDR65.41 trillion (+10.7% YoY), primarily reflecting more moderate loan growth assumptions. Nevertheless, we expect BBCA’s NIM to remain resilient, supported by its strong CASA franchise.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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August 3rd, 2026

August 3rd, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Jumat (31/7).

Penguatan dipicu saham Amazon, meskipun yield obligasi AS meningkat.

Investor cermati fluktuasi harga minyak dan dampak terhadap inflasi.

Data nonfarm payrolls diperkirakan mengalami kenaikan di Juli 2026 (7/8).

Inflasi domestik diperkirakan melambat menjadi 3.2% YoY di Juli dari 3.34% (3/8).

Defisit neraca perdagangan diperkirakan menyempit menjadi US$0.79 miliar (3/8).

Pertumbuhan ekonomi RI diperkirakan menjadi 5.3% YoY di 2Q26 dari 5.61% YoY (5/8).

Secara teknikal IHSG diperkirakan menguji level 6,300-6,380 pada pekan ini.

Top picks pekan ini: ASII, AMMN, PGAS, NCKL dan INTP.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final naik menjadi 55.2 pada Juli 2026 dari 49.5 pada Juni 2026 dan diatas perkiraan pasar 54.0. Sementara ekspektasi inflasi satu tahun turun menjadi 4.2% dari 4.6% dan ekspektasi inflasi lima tahun tetap sebesar 3.3%.

Gubernur sementara (Pjs) Bank Indonesia (BI) Destry Damayanti mengungkap bahwa kenaikan suku bunga ke level 5.75% berhasil mendorong aliran modal asing masuk ke Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) dan Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) sebesar Rp195 triliun (US$10 miliar). Ke depan, BI akan tetap fokus mengoptimalkan instrumen kebijakan dalam menjaga stabilitas kurs dan inflasi serta mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi.

The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was recorded at 1.5% QoQ in the first estimate 2Q26, lower than a 2.1% QoQ growth in 1Q26. Consumption-based inflation indicators also declined, including Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) recorded at 3.7% YoY in June 2026 from 4.1% YoY in May 2026 and Core PCE recorded at 3.3% YoY in June 2026 from 3.4% YoY in May 2026, but still well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. In addition, household income grew at a slower pace, marked by a 0.2% MoM growth of Personal Income (PI) to US$26.99 trillion in June 2026 from a 0.7% MoM growth in May 2026, fueled by higher employee compensation, income receipts on asses, and government social benefits, partly offset by a decline in farm proprietors’ income.

July 31th, 2026

Ekonomi AS mengalami perlambatan pertumbuhan 1.5% QoQ pada estimasi pertama di 2Q26, dari 2.1% QoQ pada 1Q26 dan berada di bawah perkiraan pasar 2.1% QoQ. Perlambatan terjadi pada komponen investasi tetap nonresidensial, ekspor, belanja pemerintah, dan persediaan swasta, sedangkan impor tetap kuat. Konsumsi rumah tangga menjadi penopang utama dengan pertumbuhan 3.2% QoQ.

Bank Indonesia (BI) menegaskan komitmennya untuk terus memperkuat bauran kebijakan moneter guna mendukung stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah. BI berupaya mengoptimalkan strategi triple intervention di pasar valuta asing dan instrumen Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) serta memperkuat penggunaan Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) hedging. BI juga akan terus menyesuaikan penerbitan SRBI dengan kebutuhan pengelolaan likuiditas.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Kamis (30/7).

Kenaikan saham Microsoft dan semikonduktor mendorong rebound indeks.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi AS melambat menjadi 1.5% QoQ annualized pada 2Q26 (30/7).

Indeks PCE prices sebesar 3.3% YoY di Juni 2026 dari 3.4% YoY di Mei 2026 (30/7).

Bank of England mempertahankan suku bunganya tetap di level 3.75% (30/7).

Harga minyak mentah koreksi lebih dari 1% (30/7).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield cenderung stabil di level 4.673% (30/7).

Harga emas spot menguat 1.1% di level US$4,109/troy oz (30/7).

Diperkirakan IHSG melanjutkan penguatan menguji level 6,200-6,250.

Top picks (31/7): MDKA, INCO, TINS, BULL, AADI dan BBNI.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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The Fed decided to keep the benchmark Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at the level of 3.50%-3.75% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on July 29, 2026. The Fed assessed that US economic activity is growing at a robust pace although it is still overshadowed by global uncertainty. In addition, job gains are still in line with a declining unemployment rate to 4.2% in June 2026 from 4.3% in May 2026. The US inflation is also recorded to fall to 3.5% YoY in June 2026, although it still exceeds the 2% target and has the potential to rise due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The FOMC is fulfilled by a variety of opinions from Fed officials, where nine officials agreed to keep interest rate unchanged, while three other officials have rejected the decision and pushed for a 25 bps hike.

Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash
PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk – TAPG. IJ
Aditya Prayoga

TAPG: Production Recovery Reinforces Earnings Momentum>TAPG reported strong quarter in 2Q26, posting net profit of IDR1.3tn (+69.9% QoQ; +41.5% YoY), supported by a recovery in production following the low crop season, stronger CPO and PKO prices, and continued margin expansion. Revenue increased 35.0% QoQ (+16.5% YoY) to IDR3.4tn, outpacing the 10.5% QoQ increase in COGS to IDR1.8tn, despite higher raw material costs following a 25.6% QoQ increase in external FFB purchases to 355k tons. Consequently, gross profit margin improved significantly to 46.3% (vs. 34.4% in 1Q26), reflecting stronger operating leverage and improved profitability.

>Operational performance also recovered solidly during the quarter. FFB production increased 20.0% QoQ (+3.6% YoY) to 948k tons, driving processed FFB volume up 21.6% QoQ (+5.0% YoY) to 1.14mn tons. Nucleus estates continued to contribute 69% of total FFB supply (5yrs-avg: 69.5%), highlighting the Company’s strong internal production capacity supported by its relatively young plantation profile.

>Meanwhile, external FFB purchases accounted for 31% (5yrs-avg: 30.5%), helping optimize mill utilization. In line with stronger processing activity, CPO and PK production rose to 271k tons (+19.4% QoQ) and 58k tons (+23.4% QoQ), respectively, while OER and KER remained stable at 23.7% and 5.0%. Higher production translated into stronger sales volumes, particularly for CPO (+26.2% QoQ), PK (+12.7% QoQ), and PKO (+80.0% QoQ).

>We remain constructive on TAPG’s outlook for 2H26, supported by the seasonal production pattern where approximately 52% of annual output is typically generated in the second half (vs. 48% in 1H). In addition, we expect CPO prices to remain elevated, underpinned by stronger demand following the implementation of B50 and relatively tight global supply due to aging plantations.

>These industry dynamics should continue to benefit TAPG, given that ~99% of its revenue is derived from CPO and downstream palm products. Meanwhile, we expect the impact of El Niño on FY26F to remain relatively limited and more likely to affect production in FY27F, while the Company’s exposure to the DSI remains minimal due to its predominantly domestic sales exposure.

>Downside risks include: (1) global CPO price volatility, (2) adverse weather conditions affecting plantation productivity, and (3) higher-than-expected operating costs, particularly fertilizer and labor expenses, which could pressure profitability.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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ERAA delivered solid 6M26 results, supported by broad-based revenue growth across all business segments, with Erajaya Digital remaining the primary contributor and ERAL continuing to drive the fastest growth.

Net profit and gross profit recorded healthy YoY growth despite quarterly earnings normalization, while stable margins reflected the Company’s ability to maintain profitability amid a more challenging operating environment.

ERAA continued to expand its retail footprint and diversify its business portfolio through new store openings, strong ERAL performance, and ongoing growth in its Food & Nourishment segment.

ERAA is expected to sustain its growth momentum in 3Q26 through seasonal promotional campaigns, alongside ERAL’s continued expansion via XPENG and its new partnership with Levi’s.

ERAA showed solid fundamentals through 6M26, while monitoring risks from TKDN regulations, weaker consumer purchasing power, and intensifying industry competition.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash
PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk – GOTO. IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>GOTO once again delivered solid operational performance in 2Q26, with GTV increasing 71.4% YoY (+14.9% QoQ) to IDR271.4tn, while Core GTV expanded at an even faster pace of 83.1% YoY (+19.4% QoQ) to IDR164.3tn. Net revenue rose 30.6% YoY (+5.8% QoQ) to IDR5.7tn, supported by continued ecosystem monetization despite a lower revenue-to-GTV ratio, reflecting changes in business mix and the growing contribution from lower-monetization segments.

>Profitability also strengthened significantly, with Adjusted EBITDA surging 136.5% YoY (+11.4% QoQ) to IDR1.0tn and the Adjusted EBITDA margin improving to 17.4% (vs. 9.6% in 1H25). Meanwhile, GOTO posted a net profit of IDR252bn in 2Q26 (vs. IDR171bn in 1Q26; net loss of IDR375bn in 2Q25), extending its positive earnings momentum.

>Growth remained primarily driven by the ODS and Fintech segments. ODS recorded Adjusted EBITDA of IDR464bn
(+41.5% YoY), supported by a higher take rate of 21.5% (vs. 20.6% in 1Q26; 18.3% in 2Q25), reflecting management’s strategy to optimize profitability ahead of the implementation of the 8% commission cap policy. Meanwhile, the Fintech business continued to outperform, with Adjusted EBITDA surging 446.6% YoY to IDR481bn, underpinned by Core GTV growth of 91.3% YoY and loan outstanding expansion of 67.3% YoY. Asset quality also remained resilient, as evidenced by a well-controlled Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio.

>Management maintained its Group Adjusted EBITDA guidance at IDR3.2–3.4tn for FY26, while revising segment guidance to reflect evolving industry dynamics. Fintech guidance was upgraded to IDR1.7–1.8tn (prev. IDR1.4–1.5tn), supported by continued monetization and robust lending growth. Conversely, ODS guidance was lowered to IDR1.4–1.5tn (prev. IDR1.7–1.8tn), reflecting the expected impact of the 8% commission cap on ride-hailing platforms, which is anticipated to begin pressuring take rates and margins starting in 3Q26.

>Nevertheless, we believe the impact on consolidated earnings should remain manageable, given that the two-wheel mobility business contributes only c.7% of total net revenue, while continued transaction growth and expansion into the mass-market segment are expected to partially mitigate these headwinds.

>Downside risks include: (1) intensifying competition leading to weaker monetization and pricing pressure, (2) slower ecosystem monetization than expected, (3) a weaker macroeconomic environment affecting transaction growth, and (4) deterioration in Fintech asset quality, resulting in higher credit costs.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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