The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was recorded at 1.5% QoQ in the first estimate 2Q26, lower than a 2.1% QoQ growth in 1Q26. Consumption-based inflation indicators also declined, including Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) recorded at 3.7% YoY in June 2026 from 4.1% YoY in May 2026 and Core PCE recorded at 3.3% YoY in June 2026 from 3.4% YoY in May 2026, but still well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. In addition, household income grew at a slower pace, marked by a 0.2% MoM growth of Personal Income (PI) to US$26.99 trillion in June 2026 from a 0.7% MoM growth in May 2026, fueled by higher employee compensation, income receipts on asses, and government social benefits, partly offset by a decline in farm proprietors’ income.

July 31th, 2026

Ekonomi AS mengalami perlambatan pertumbuhan 1.5% QoQ pada estimasi pertama di 2Q26, dari 2.1% QoQ pada 1Q26 dan berada di bawah perkiraan pasar 2.1% QoQ. Perlambatan terjadi pada komponen investasi tetap nonresidensial, ekspor, belanja pemerintah, dan persediaan swasta, sedangkan impor tetap kuat. Konsumsi rumah tangga menjadi penopang utama dengan pertumbuhan 3.2% QoQ.

Bank Indonesia (BI) menegaskan komitmennya untuk terus memperkuat bauran kebijakan moneter guna mendukung stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah. BI berupaya mengoptimalkan strategi triple intervention di pasar valuta asing dan instrumen Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) serta memperkuat penggunaan Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) hedging. BI juga akan terus menyesuaikan penerbitan SRBI dengan kebutuhan pengelolaan likuiditas.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Kamis (30/7).

Kenaikan saham Microsoft dan semikonduktor mendorong rebound indeks.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi AS melambat menjadi 1.5% QoQ annualized pada 2Q26 (30/7).

Indeks PCE prices sebesar 3.3% YoY di Juni 2026 dari 3.4% YoY di Mei 2026 (30/7).

Bank of England mempertahankan suku bunganya tetap di level 3.75% (30/7).

Harga minyak mentah koreksi lebih dari 1% (30/7).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield cenderung stabil di level 4.673% (30/7).

Harga emas spot menguat 1.1% di level US$4,109/troy oz (30/7).

Diperkirakan IHSG melanjutkan penguatan menguji level 6,200-6,250.

Top picks (31/7): MDKA, INCO, TINS, BULL, AADI dan BBNI.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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The Fed decided to keep the benchmark Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at the level of 3.50%-3.75% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on July 29, 2026. The Fed assessed that US economic activity is growing at a robust pace although it is still overshadowed by global uncertainty. In addition, job gains are still in line with a declining unemployment rate to 4.2% in June 2026 from 4.3% in May 2026. The US inflation is also recorded to fall to 3.5% YoY in June 2026, although it still exceeds the 2% target and has the potential to rise due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The FOMC is fulfilled by a variety of opinions from Fed officials, where nine officials agreed to keep interest rate unchanged, while three other officials have rejected the decision and pushed for a 25 bps hike.

Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash
PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk – TAPG. IJ
Aditya Prayoga

TAPG: Production Recovery Reinforces Earnings Momentum>TAPG reported strong quarter in 2Q26, posting net profit of IDR1.3tn (+69.9% QoQ; +41.5% YoY), supported by a recovery in production following the low crop season, stronger CPO and PKO prices, and continued margin expansion. Revenue increased 35.0% QoQ (+16.5% YoY) to IDR3.4tn, outpacing the 10.5% QoQ increase in COGS to IDR1.8tn, despite higher raw material costs following a 25.6% QoQ increase in external FFB purchases to 355k tons. Consequently, gross profit margin improved significantly to 46.3% (vs. 34.4% in 1Q26), reflecting stronger operating leverage and improved profitability.

>Operational performance also recovered solidly during the quarter. FFB production increased 20.0% QoQ (+3.6% YoY) to 948k tons, driving processed FFB volume up 21.6% QoQ (+5.0% YoY) to 1.14mn tons. Nucleus estates continued to contribute 69% of total FFB supply (5yrs-avg: 69.5%), highlighting the Company’s strong internal production capacity supported by its relatively young plantation profile.

>Meanwhile, external FFB purchases accounted for 31% (5yrs-avg: 30.5%), helping optimize mill utilization. In line with stronger processing activity, CPO and PK production rose to 271k tons (+19.4% QoQ) and 58k tons (+23.4% QoQ), respectively, while OER and KER remained stable at 23.7% and 5.0%. Higher production translated into stronger sales volumes, particularly for CPO (+26.2% QoQ), PK (+12.7% QoQ), and PKO (+80.0% QoQ).

>We remain constructive on TAPG’s outlook for 2H26, supported by the seasonal production pattern where approximately 52% of annual output is typically generated in the second half (vs. 48% in 1H). In addition, we expect CPO prices to remain elevated, underpinned by stronger demand following the implementation of B50 and relatively tight global supply due to aging plantations.

>These industry dynamics should continue to benefit TAPG, given that ~99% of its revenue is derived from CPO and downstream palm products. Meanwhile, we expect the impact of El Niño on FY26F to remain relatively limited and more likely to affect production in FY27F, while the Company’s exposure to the DSI remains minimal due to its predominantly domestic sales exposure.

>Downside risks include: (1) global CPO price volatility, (2) adverse weather conditions affecting plantation productivity, and (3) higher-than-expected operating costs, particularly fertilizer and labor expenses, which could pressure profitability.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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ERAA delivered solid 6M26 results, supported by broad-based revenue growth across all business segments, with Erajaya Digital remaining the primary contributor and ERAL continuing to drive the fastest growth.

Net profit and gross profit recorded healthy YoY growth despite quarterly earnings normalization, while stable margins reflected the Company’s ability to maintain profitability amid a more challenging operating environment.

ERAA continued to expand its retail footprint and diversify its business portfolio through new store openings, strong ERAL performance, and ongoing growth in its Food & Nourishment segment.

ERAA is expected to sustain its growth momentum in 3Q26 through seasonal promotional campaigns, alongside ERAL’s continued expansion via XPENG and its new partnership with Levi’s.

ERAA showed solid fundamentals through 6M26, while monitoring risks from TKDN regulations, weaker consumer purchasing power, and intensifying industry competition.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Phintraco Sekuritas Company Flash
PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk – GOTO. IJ
Aditya Prayoga

>GOTO once again delivered solid operational performance in 2Q26, with GTV increasing 71.4% YoY (+14.9% QoQ) to IDR271.4tn, while Core GTV expanded at an even faster pace of 83.1% YoY (+19.4% QoQ) to IDR164.3tn. Net revenue rose 30.6% YoY (+5.8% QoQ) to IDR5.7tn, supported by continued ecosystem monetization despite a lower revenue-to-GTV ratio, reflecting changes in business mix and the growing contribution from lower-monetization segments.

>Profitability also strengthened significantly, with Adjusted EBITDA surging 136.5% YoY (+11.4% QoQ) to IDR1.0tn and the Adjusted EBITDA margin improving to 17.4% (vs. 9.6% in 1H25). Meanwhile, GOTO posted a net profit of IDR252bn in 2Q26 (vs. IDR171bn in 1Q26; net loss of IDR375bn in 2Q25), extending its positive earnings momentum.

>Growth remained primarily driven by the ODS and Fintech segments. ODS recorded Adjusted EBITDA of IDR464bn
(+41.5% YoY), supported by a higher take rate of 21.5% (vs. 20.6% in 1Q26; 18.3% in 2Q25), reflecting management’s strategy to optimize profitability ahead of the implementation of the 8% commission cap policy. Meanwhile, the Fintech business continued to outperform, with Adjusted EBITDA surging 446.6% YoY to IDR481bn, underpinned by Core GTV growth of 91.3% YoY and loan outstanding expansion of 67.3% YoY. Asset quality also remained resilient, as evidenced by a well-controlled Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio.

>Management maintained its Group Adjusted EBITDA guidance at IDR3.2–3.4tn for FY26, while revising segment guidance to reflect evolving industry dynamics. Fintech guidance was upgraded to IDR1.7–1.8tn (prev. IDR1.4–1.5tn), supported by continued monetization and robust lending growth. Conversely, ODS guidance was lowered to IDR1.4–1.5tn (prev. IDR1.7–1.8tn), reflecting the expected impact of the 8% commission cap on ride-hailing platforms, which is anticipated to begin pressuring take rates and margins starting in 3Q26.

>Nevertheless, we believe the impact on consolidated earnings should remain manageable, given that the two-wheel mobility business contributes only c.7% of total net revenue, while continued transaction growth and expansion into the mass-market segment are expected to partially mitigate these headwinds.

>Downside risks include: (1) intensifying competition leading to weaker monetization and pricing pressure, (2) slower ecosystem monetization than expected, (3) a weaker macroeconomic environment affecting transaction growth, and (4) deterioration in Fintech asset quality, resulting in higher credit costs.

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June 30th, 2026

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah signifikan pada Rabu (29/7).

Berlanjutnya koreksi saham chip dan kenaikan harga minyak memicu pelemahan indeks.

Fed mempertahankan suku bunga tetap di level 3.5%-3.75% (29/7).

Tiga pejabat the Fed lebih memilih untuk memperketat kebijakan moneter.

Indikasi dari pasar obligasi bahwa Fed mungkin tertinggal dalam upaya menurunkan inflasi.

Harga minyak Brent dan WTI masing-masing ditutup menguat lebih dari 7% dan 6% (29/7).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik hampir 7 bps ke level 4.671% (29/7).

Harga emas spot menguat 1.9% di level US$4,101/troy oz (29/7).

Diperkirakan IHSG akan uji level psikologis di 6,000.

Top picks (30/7): AMMN, BBCA, BBRI, TPIA, AKRA dan HEAL.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuan pada kisaran 3.50%-3.75% untuk kelima kalinya secara berturut-turut pada Juli 2026. Tiga anggota The Fed memilih kenaikan sebesar 25bps, sehingga peluang kenaikan suku bunga pertemuan The Fed di September tetap terbuka. The Fed menilai ekonomi masih tumbuh solid, tetapi inflasi AS tetap berada di atas target 2.0% akibat kenaikan harga energi dari konflik Timur Tengah.

S&P Global Ratings menilai pengunduran diri mendadak Perry Warjiyo sebagai Gubernur Bank Indonesia dapat meningkatkan ketidakpastian terhadap arah kebijakan moneter, meskipun belum berpengaruh terhadap peringkat utang Indonesia. Pergantian kepemimpinan terjadi saat kepercayaan pasar terhadap aset domestik melemah, sehingga berisiko menekan nilai tukar rupiah dalam jangka pendek.

Phintraco Sekuritas Company Update
Aditya Prayoga

>ISAT reporting revenue of IDR30.6tn (+13.1% YoY) in 1H26, was primarily supported by the data business with data revenue increasing 13.45% YoY to IDR23.7tn, driven by stronger monetization as blended ARPU improved to IDR46K (+17.1% YoY) alongside data traffic growth of 19.9% YoY to 9,892PB. Although subscribers declined slightly to 93.4 million (-2.1% YoY), higher data consumption per user (53.4GB/sub; +17.7% YoY) reflected continued improvement in customer monetization quality.

>EBITDA reached IDR14.6tn (+13.6% YoY) with the EBITDA margin improving to 47.6% (vs. 47.4% in 1H25). Reported net profit surged to IDR4.31tn (+84.5% YoY), supported by a one-off gain of IDR1.5tn from the FiberCo divestment. Excluding this non-recurring gain, normalized net profit still increased 22.9% YoY to IDR1.8tn, highlighting resilient underlying operational performance despite higher financing costs. Meanwhile, legacy Voice and SMS revenues continued to decline by 28.5% YoY and 25.6% YoY, respectively, reflecting the ongoing migration toward OTT services.

>Solid execution in the data segment continues to underpin operational momentum, while higher interest expenses remain a key constraint on bottom-line growth. Following stronger-than-expected 1H26 results, management upgraded its FY26 guidance, now expecting close-to-double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth.

>Reflecting stronger ARPU realization and improving non-data contributions, we raise our FY26F/FY27F revenue forecasts by 1.6%/2.9% and EBITDA forecasts by 4.2%/6.3%, with EBITDA margins projected at 48.8%/49.4%. Nevertheless, we lower our FY26F/FY27F net profit forecasts by 12.6%/15.6%, incorporating expectations of persistently higher financing costs.

Downside risks include: (1) more aggressive industry competition leading to weaker ARPU and pricing pressure, (2) higher-than-expected financing costs amid a prolonged high interest rate environment, and (3) capex spending exceeding our estimates, potentially weighing on free cash flow and earnings growth.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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ELSA reported solid 6M26 earnings, with revenue rising 8.9% YoY to Rp7.59 trillion and net profit increasing 29.2% YoY to Rp435 billion, supported by strong growth in the distribution and logistics segment despite weaker upstream service performance.

The distribution and logistics segment remained the key growth driver, contributing 64.8% of total revenue after expanding 26.6% YoY, offsetting declines in both integrated upstream oil & gas services and upstream support services.

Despite a 10.0% YoY increase in cost of revenue that compressed GPM by 89 bps to 9.51%, ELSA maintained stable operating profitability, while NPM improved to 5.73% through continued cost efficiency and disciplined expense management.

ELSA successfully implemented Indonesia’s first Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (CEOR) technology, strengthening its long-term growth prospects while supporting higher oil recovery and the government’s 1 million barrels per day production target by 2030.

We maintain a positive outlook on ELSA, supported by resilient operational performance, higher global oil prices, the government’s energy self-sufficiency agenda, accelerating domestic fuel demand, and ongoing expansion of upstream oil & gas activities.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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The Fed menghadapi dilema dalam menentukan arah suku bunga karena konflik Timur Tengah meningkatkan harga minyak dan risiko inflasi AS. Inflasi konsumen pada Juni memang melandai, tetapi tekanan dari harga energi, permintaan sektor kecerdasan buatan, dan kebijakan tarif masih membatasi ruang pelonggaran moneter. Fokus investor kini tertuju pada hasil rapat FOMC yang diumumkan pada 29 Juli–30 Juli untuk mengetahui apakah The Fed akan menaikkan atau mempertahankan suku bunga.

Pejabat Sementara (Pjs) Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI), Destry Damayanti, menyatakan bahwa BI akan tetap menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar dengan berbagai kebijakan yang pro-growth seperti sebelumnya. BI akan terus berada di pasar, baik melalui intervensi di spot Domestic Non Deliverable Forward (DNF) maupun Non Deliverable Forward (NDF).

July 29th, 2026