>Coal prices have surged 42% YTD to US$151.25/t, the highest level since September 2023, driven by Indonesia’s production quota cut, higher oil prices, and geopolitical tensions that have increased demand for coal as a substitute for natural gas.

>Despite an 8% YoY decline in China’s coal imports during May 2026, the impact on global coal markets remains limited as elevated LNG and natural gas prices continue to support coal consumption across major Asian economies.

>Rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have strengthened the investment case for coal by increasing energy supply risks, supporting higher oil and gas prices, and improving coal’s competitiveness as an alternative fuel source.

>Indonesia introduced several policy changes in 2026, including lower production quotas, a proposed windfall tax, higher DMO allocation, coal gasification projects worth Rp164tn, and a new export governance framework through PT DSI that is expected to be fully implemented from 2027.

>We remain constructive on the sector given supportive coal prices, resilient Asian demand, and long-term growth from downstream and diversification initiatives, although regulatory changes remain key risks to monitor.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

MEDC booked revenue growth of 19.24% YoY to US$668.3 million in 1Q26. This growth was driven by increased revenue in almost all business segments, except for the power segment, which decreased by 2.19% YoY to US$43.4 million in 1Q26, despite power sales increasing by 20.8% YoY to 1,053 GWh following the completion of the Ijen and ELB expansion projects in 2025.

E&P oil and gas revenue increased by 11.38% YoY to US$420.6 million in 1Q26, driven by the addition of 24% participation interest in Corridor, new production from Forel and Terubuk in South Natuna Block B, and increases in average oil and gas prices of 3.9% YoY to US$75.1/bbl and 1.4% YoY to US$7.2/mmbtu, respectively.

MEDC’s net profit increased by 251.44% YoY to US$72.2 million in 1Q26, driven by a share of profit from associates and joint ventures of US$44.6 million, compared to a loss of US$20 million in 1Q25. On the other hand, other expenses decreased to US$1.2 million in 1Q26, primarily due to foreign exchange losses turning into gains.

MEDC has a strategic position as an integrated oil and gas producer with significant exposure to oil prices. MEDC has a portfolio of upstream oil and gas assets spread across Indonesia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. The exploration and production (E&P) business remains the primary contributor to the Company’s revenue and EBITDA, placing MEDC in an advantageous position as global oil prices remain at high levels.

MEDC has entered a phase of stronger production growth following the successful operation of several strategic oil and gas projects resulting from investments made over the past few years. The operation of the Forel and Terubuk fields in Natuna, which have a production capacity of approximately 30 mboepd, has become the primary catalyst for increased production volumes while also strengthening the Company’s operating cash flow.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

Code : JELI
Sector : Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Sub-Sector : Processed Foods

———————————————
PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM

Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif :
29 Juni 2026

Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum :
1 Juli 2026 – 3 Juli 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan :
3 Juli 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham :
6 Juli 2026

Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI :
7 Juli 2026

———————————————
STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM

Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 350,000,000 (tiga ratus lima puluh juta) saham biasa atas nama, atau sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 25.93% (dua puluh lima koma sembilan tiga persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham dengan nilai nominal Rp100,- (seratus Rupiah) setiap saham
Nilai Nominal :
Rp100 per lembar saham

Harga Penawaran :
Rp900 – Rp1,120 per lembar saham

Jumlah Penawaran Umum :
Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 350,000,000 (tiga ratus lima puluh juta)

Penjamin Pelaksana Emisi Efek:
PT Sucor Indonesia

Penjamin Emisi :
Akan ditentukan kemudian

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

**Phintraco Sekuritas Initiation Sector Report**
Tobacco Sector
_Aditya Prayoga_

>The tobacco sector recorded a strong profitability recovery in 3M26 despite continued pressure on industry demand. **Aggregate net profit rose 78.6% YoY to IDR3.7 trillion**, supported by a 3.1ppt expansion in GPM to 19.2%. **The recovery was primarily driven by GGRM, which delivered a 6.9ppt YoY margin expansion through production cost efficiencies, particularly in excise and advertising expenses**, while HMSP also recorded a 1.0ppt YoY improvement in GPM to 18.4%.

>**Despite the earnings recovery, topline pressure remained evident across the industry**. Aggregate **sector revenue declined 8.1% YoY to IDR48.9 trillion** amid ongoing consumer downtrading toward more affordable cigarette products. **HMSP delivered a relatively more resilient performance, supported by 43.8% YoY growth in SFP revenue**, while **GGRM continued to face broad-based weakness across its conventional cigarette portfolio**.

>Indonesia’s tobacco industry continues to face the **impact of cumulative excise tax increases of c.105.9% during FY15–FY25**, which have pressured industry volumes and accelerated consumer downtrading. However, **we believe industry conditions are set to improve in FY26 following the government’s decision to maintain excise tax rates unchanged**, which should help support volume stabilization and margin recovery. **This outlook is further reinforced by increasingly aggressive enforcement against illegal cigarettes**.

>Beyond conventional cigarettes, **smoke-free products (SFP) are emerging as one of the most attractive long-term growth opportunities in the tobacco industry**. While conventional cigarettes still accounted for c.82.5% of the global tobacco market in FY25, the **HTP segment is projected to grow at a 63.2% CAGR during FY25–FY30**. Despite this trend, **HTP penetration in Indonesia remains low at only c.0.6%**, highlighting substantial room for future growth.

> Key risks to our view include : 1) the resumption of excise tax hikes, 2) weaker consumer purchasing power, 3) slower SFP adoption, and 4) weaker-than-expected enforcement against illegal cigarettes

Full Report:

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Contact Us:
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www.profits.co.id

Global macroeconomic pressures remain key challenges for Indonesia’s financial sector in 2026, driven by Rupiah depreciation, rising energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and persistently high global inflation, prompting central banks to maintain tight monetary policies.

Bank Indonesia raised the BI Rate by 75 bps to 5.50% in June 2026 to support Rupiah stability and contain inflationary pressures, while the Fed is expected to maintain a higher for longer interest rate stance amid elevated US inflation.

Despite higher interest rates, Indonesia’s banking sector continued to record solid loan growth and resilient liquidity, supported by strong investment loan expansion, improving CASA ratios, and relatively stable third party fund growth.

Big banks are expected to maintain strong profitability in 2026–2027, with BMRI and BBNI projected to drive earnings growth through robust loan expansion, while BBCA continues to benefit from its dominant low-cost funding base and strong asset quality.

The Islamic finance and insurance sectors continue to show favorable long term prospects, supported by growing sharia financing demand, digital banking expansion, and industry consolidation following OJK Regulation No. 23/2023 aimed at strengthening capital and improving efficiency.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

Higher BI Rate and Rupiah depreciation became the main pressures on the property sector in 1Q26, reflected in slowing property loan growth and weakening residential demand, particularly in the middle-income segment.

Consumer purchasing power showed signs of weakening, indicated by lower consumer confidence, slowing retail sales, and contracting household income, while high mortgage rates and rising financing costs continued to weigh on property demand.

Government incentives remained key supports for the residential market, including VAT incentives for homes priced below IDR 2 billion, the FLPP housing program, and the 3 Million Homes Program, which are expected to help maintain demand stability amid interest rate pressures.

The primary property market remained under pressure, with IHPR growth slowing and total primary market sales declining 25.67% YoY, particularly in small-scale housing. Rising construction costs, licensing challenges, and elevated mortgage rates continued to limit sales recovery.

Marketing sales performance among property developers remained mixed in 1Q26, >reflecting differences in product mix, target market exposure, and sales strategies. Going forward, interest rate stabilization and continued government incentives will be key factors supporting a gradual sector recovery.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

U.S. monthly headline inflation slowed slightly from 0.6% MoM in April 2026 to 0.5% MoM in May 2026. However, annual U.S. headline inflation rose from 3.8% YoY in April 2026 to 4.2% YoY in May 2026, reaching its highest level since April 2023. This was predominantly driven by a rise in energy inflation, which reached 23.50% YoY in May 2026. In contrast to U.S. headline inflation, U.S. core inflation that excludes food and energy components rose only 0.1%, from 2.8% YoY in April 2026 to 2.9% in May 2026, marking a new high level since September 2025.

June 15th, 2026

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment naik menjadi 48.9 pada awal Juni 2026 dari 44.8 pada
Mei 2026, didukung oleh penurunan harga bensin dan membaiknya persepsi terhadap
kondisi keuangan dan prospek bisnis. Namun, tingkat kepercayaan konsumen masih relatif
rendah dibandingkan Januari 2026 (-13%) dan periode yang sama tahun lalu (-19%)
Suku bunga Indonesia diekspektasikan naik 25bps menjadi 5.75% pada Rapat Dewan
Gubernur (RDG) mendatang sebagai upaya stabilisasi nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar AS
di tengah ketidakpastian global.

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Jumat (12/6).

Ekspektasi perjanjian damai AS-Iran akan segera ditandatangani.

The Fed diperkirakan mempertahankan suku bunga tetap di 3.5%-3.75% (17/6).

BoE (18/6),  BoJ (16/6) dan RBA (16/6) juga akan menetapkan suku bunga.

Koreksi harga minyak dunia akan menjadi faktor positif bagi domestik.

Investor menantikan Global Market Accessibility Review dari MSCI dan rebalancing indeks FTSE (19/6).

RDG BI menurut konsensus akan menaikkan BI Rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.75% (18/6).

Diperkirakan IHSG bergerak pada support 5900-6000 dan resistance 6150-6200 pada pekan ini.

Top picks pekan ini: AMMN, CUAN, RATU, KETR, ESSA  dan MBMA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

June 15th, 2026

**Phintraco Sekuritas Initiation Report**
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk – HMSP
**Aditya Prayoga**

>HMSP remains the market leader in Indonesia’s tobacco industry with c.30.7% market share in FY25, supported by strong brand equity through Marlboro, Sampoerna A, and Dji Sam Soe, as well as an extensive distribution network covering more than 100 sales and distribution points nationwide. Beyond conventional cigarettes, HMSP continues to strengthen its exposure to SFP through IQOS (HTP), VEEV (e-vapor), and ZYN (nicotine pouches), positioning the company to capture evolving consumer preferences toward reduced-risk nicotine products.

>Indonesia remains significantly underpenetrated in the global SFP market. HTP penetration stood at only c.0.6% in FY25, well below levels observed in several developed and emerging markets. While conventional cigarettes still accounted for c.82.5% of global tobacco industry volume in FY25, the HTP segment is expected to be one of the fastest-growing categories globally, supported by increasing adoption of smoke-free alternatives and expanding regulatory acceptance in various markets.

>HMSP delivered a relatively resilient 1Q26 performance, with net profit increasing 7.2% YoY to IDR2.1 trillion despite revenue declining 5.5% YoY to IDR27.2 trillion. Growth was primarily supported by improving profitability and strong momentum in the SFP segment, where revenue surged 43.8% YoY to IDR637 billion, increasing its contribution to total revenue to 2.3%.

>Looking ahead, we expect HMSP to return to low-single-digit revenue growth in FY26F, supported by a gradual stabilization in conventional cigarette volumes and continued expansion of the SFP business. Meanwhile, profitability is expected to improve as excise-related production costs normalize following the absence of excise tax increases in FY26, allowing for a more balanced pricing strategy and better gross margin recovery.

> We forecast FY26F revenue and net profit growth of 2.0% YoY and 11.8% YoY, respectively, driven by improving operational efficiency, easing cost pressures, and growing contribution from higher-growth smoke-free products. Meanwhile, gross profit margin
is projected to improve to 18.4% in FY26F (vs. 15.7% in FY24), driven by the stabilization of excise-related production costs per stick (c.IDR 800/stick in FY26F) and a more moderate pace of ASP increases

> Upside risks include: (1) stronger-than-expected SFP adoption, (2) stable excise policy environment, and (3) faster recovery in industry volumes. Key downside risks include: (1) higher-than-expected excise tax increases, (2) prolonged consumer downtrading, and (3) intensifying competition across both conventional and smoke-free product categories.

Full Report:

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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IG: phintracosekuritasofficial
YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official
TELE: phintasprofits
www.phintracosekuritas.com
www.profits.co.id

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat signifikan pada Kamis (11/6).

Penguatan indeks dipicu oleh pernyataan Presiden Trump bahwa kesepakatan damai dengan Iran telah tercapai (11/6).

Indeks PPI AS naik 1.1% MoM di bulan Mei, sama dengan angka bulan April dan melampaui perkiraan sebesar 0.7% MoM (11/6).

Penjualan ritel Indonesia turun 3.7% YoY di April, setelah meningkat 3.4% di Maret 2026 (11/6).

Harga minyak melemah sekitar 4%, di bawah level US$90/barel (11/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun sebesar 8 bps ke level 4.453% (11/6).

Harga emas melemah 0.64% di level US$4,185/troy oz (11/6).

Diperkirakan IHSG masih berpeluang melanjutkan penguatan dengan menguji level 5900-5950.

Top picks (12/6): ISAT, EXCL, CLEO, INTP dan AADI.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

June 12th, 2026

Producer Price Inflation (PPI) AS naik 1.1% MoM pada Mei 2026, sama dengan kenaikan bulan sebelumnya dan lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi pasar sebesar 0.7% MoM. Kenaikan ini terutama didorong oleh kenaikan signifikan harga barang sebesar 2.8% MoM, khususnya BBM, meskipun kenaikan harga jasa melambat menjadi 0.3% MoM dari 0.7% MoM pada April. Secara tahunan, PPI meningkat 6.5% YoY di Mei 2026 dan di atas perkiraan pasar sebesar 6.4% YoY.

Penjualan ritel aktual terkontraksi 11.6% MoM dan 3.7% YoY pada April 2026, yang bertepatan dengan berakhirnya periode Hari Ramadan dan Idulfitri 1447 H. Namun, penjualan ritel diperkirakan akan membaik pada Mei 2026, meski tetap terkontraksi sebesar 0.9% MoM dan 3.2% YoY.