**Phintraco Sekuritas Initiation Report**
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk – HMSP
**Aditya Prayoga**

>HMSP remains the market leader in Indonesia’s tobacco industry with c.30.7% market share in FY25, supported by strong brand equity through Marlboro, Sampoerna A, and Dji Sam Soe, as well as an extensive distribution network covering more than 100 sales and distribution points nationwide. Beyond conventional cigarettes, HMSP continues to strengthen its exposure to SFP through IQOS (HTP), VEEV (e-vapor), and ZYN (nicotine pouches), positioning the company to capture evolving consumer preferences toward reduced-risk nicotine products.

>Indonesia remains significantly underpenetrated in the global SFP market. HTP penetration stood at only c.0.6% in FY25, well below levels observed in several developed and emerging markets. While conventional cigarettes still accounted for c.82.5% of global tobacco industry volume in FY25, the HTP segment is expected to be one of the fastest-growing categories globally, supported by increasing adoption of smoke-free alternatives and expanding regulatory acceptance in various markets.

>HMSP delivered a relatively resilient 1Q26 performance, with net profit increasing 7.2% YoY to IDR2.1 trillion despite revenue declining 5.5% YoY to IDR27.2 trillion. Growth was primarily supported by improving profitability and strong momentum in the SFP segment, where revenue surged 43.8% YoY to IDR637 billion, increasing its contribution to total revenue to 2.3%.

>Looking ahead, we expect HMSP to return to low-single-digit revenue growth in FY26F, supported by a gradual stabilization in conventional cigarette volumes and continued expansion of the SFP business. Meanwhile, profitability is expected to improve as excise-related production costs normalize following the absence of excise tax increases in FY26, allowing for a more balanced pricing strategy and better gross margin recovery.

> We forecast FY26F revenue and net profit growth of 2.0% YoY and 11.8% YoY, respectively, driven by improving operational efficiency, easing cost pressures, and growing contribution from higher-growth smoke-free products. Meanwhile, gross profit margin
is projected to improve to 18.4% in FY26F (vs. 15.7% in FY24), driven by the stabilization of excise-related production costs per stick (c.IDR 800/stick in FY26F) and a more moderate pace of ASP increases

> Upside risks include: (1) stronger-than-expected SFP adoption, (2) stable excise policy environment, and (3) faster recovery in industry volumes. Key downside risks include: (1) higher-than-expected excise tax increases, (2) prolonged consumer downtrading, and (3) intensifying competition across both conventional and smoke-free product categories.

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Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat signifikan pada Kamis (11/6).

Penguatan indeks dipicu oleh pernyataan Presiden Trump bahwa kesepakatan damai dengan Iran telah tercapai (11/6).

Indeks PPI AS naik 1.1% MoM di bulan Mei, sama dengan angka bulan April dan melampaui perkiraan sebesar 0.7% MoM (11/6).

Penjualan ritel Indonesia turun 3.7% YoY di April, setelah meningkat 3.4% di Maret 2026 (11/6).

Harga minyak melemah sekitar 4%, di bawah level US$90/barel (11/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun sebesar 8 bps ke level 4.453% (11/6).

Harga emas melemah 0.64% di level US$4,185/troy oz (11/6).

Diperkirakan IHSG masih berpeluang melanjutkan penguatan dengan menguji level 5900-5950.

Top picks (12/6): ISAT, EXCL, CLEO, INTP dan AADI.

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June 12th, 2026

Producer Price Inflation (PPI) AS naik 1.1% MoM pada Mei 2026, sama dengan kenaikan bulan sebelumnya dan lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi pasar sebesar 0.7% MoM. Kenaikan ini terutama didorong oleh kenaikan signifikan harga barang sebesar 2.8% MoM, khususnya BBM, meskipun kenaikan harga jasa melambat menjadi 0.3% MoM dari 0.7% MoM pada April. Secara tahunan, PPI meningkat 6.5% YoY di Mei 2026 dan di atas perkiraan pasar sebesar 6.4% YoY.

Penjualan ritel aktual terkontraksi 11.6% MoM dan 3.7% YoY pada April 2026, yang bertepatan dengan berakhirnya periode Hari Ramadan dan Idulfitri 1447 H. Namun, penjualan ritel diperkirakan akan membaik pada Mei 2026, meski tetap terkontraksi sebesar 0.9% MoM dan 3.2% YoY.

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined by 2.1 points from 123.0 in April 2026 to 120.9 in May 2026, marking its lowest level so far in 2026. Despite the decline, the CCI still reflects consumer optimism regarding economic conditions, supported by positive expectations for both current and future economic prospects. Although consumers’ perceptions of current economic conditions remained in optimistic territory, the Current Economics Conditions Index (CECI) recorded a sharp decline of 4.3 points, falling from 116.5 in April 2026 to 112.2 in May 2026.

Inflasi tahunan AS meningkat menjadi 4.2% YoY pada Mei 2026 dari 3.8% YoY pada April 2026, sesuai ekspektasi pasar dan menjadi level tertinggi sejak April 2023. Kenaikan ini didorong oleh kenaikan signifikan harga energi sebesar 23.5% YoY. Di sisi lain, inflasi inti tahunan naik tipis menjadi 2.9% YoY, yang ditopang kenaikan harga sewa rumah.

Penjualan mobil baru di Indonesia naik 14% YoY pada Mei 2026, lebih lambat dari bulan sebelumnya yang naik 55%. Di samping itu, Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) turun ke level terendahnya sejauh tahun 2026 yakni 123.0 pada April 2026.

June 11th, 2026

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah signifikan pada Rabu (10/6).

Faktor negatif dari eskalasi di Timur Tengah dan koreksi saham teknologi.

Memudarnya harapan kesepakatan damai AS-Iran dalam waktu dekat.

Indeks keyakinan konsumen turun di level 120.9 pada Mei 2026 (10/6).

Penjualan mobil baru di Indonesia meningkat 14% YoY (10/6).

Harga minyak menguat sekitar 2% (10/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 2 bps ke level 4.548% (10/6).

Harga emas melemah 4.5% di level US$4,070/troy oz (10/6).

IHSG berpeluang uji level 6000, namun waspadai profit taking karena faktor negatif eksternal.

Top picks (11/6): INDF, PGAS, BBNI, TLKM dan ASSA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Bank Indonesia (BI) decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 5.50% on June 9, 2026, following the previous rate hike to 5.25% on May 20, 2026, outside the scheduled monthly Indonesia’s Board of Governors Meeting (RDG). In addition, the Deposit Facility Rate and Lending Facility Rate were also increased by 25 bps to 4.50% and 6.25%, respectively. The policy move was aimed at strengthening Rupiah exchange rate against US dollar stability amid evolving geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, maintaining inflation rate within the BI target range of 2.5% ± 1%, and attracting foreign capital inflows. Following  the announcement, the Rupiah appreciated by 0.48% to Rp18,090/US$ (9/6), after previously reaching its weakest level of Rp18,090/US$ (9/6).

U.S Existing Home Sales naik 3.2% MoM menjadi 4.17 juta unit (annualized) pada Mei 2026, melampaui ekspektasi pasar sebesar 4.07 juta unit. Kenaikan ini mencerminkan ketahanan permintaan perumahan di tengah suku bunga KPR yang masih relatif tinggi.

Bank Indonesia menaikkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.50%, beserta suku bunga Deposit Facility dan suku bunga Lending Facility menjadi 4.50% dan 6.25%, di luar jadwal Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) bulanan. Langkah tersebut diambil untuk memperkuat nilai tukar Rupiah di tengah tekanan geopolitik, menjaga level inflasi, dan menarik aliran masuk investasi asing.

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed pada Selasa (9/6).

Saham sektor chip melemah setelah sehari rebound.

Menteri Energi AS mengatakan lalu lintas kapal melalui Selat Hormuz meningkat.

OpenAI mengajukan dokumen IPO kepada SEC.

BI menaikkan BI Rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.5% (9/6).

Harga minyak turun sekitar 3% (9/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 2 bps ke level 4.526% (9/6).

Harga emas melemah 0.7% di level US$4,298/troy oz (9/6).

Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi bergerak pada kisaran 5600-5850.

Top picks (10/6): BBRI, BBNI, INCO, BRPT dan TINS.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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June 10th, 2026

Phintraco Sekuritas Sector Update
Tower Sector
Aditya Prayoga

>Tower sector growth remained subdued in 1Q26 amid continued demand normalization from telcom operators. Aggregate tenants increased 4.9% YoY to 124.1K, while average lease rates declined 6.7% YoY to IDR10.51 million per tenant per month, resulting in a 2.1% YoY decline in aggregate tower revenue to IDR3.90 trillion.

>Despite pressure on the core tower business, aggregate sector revenue still grew 6.9% YoY to IDR5.85 trillion, supported by strong non-tower revenue growth of 31.5% YoY to IDR1.95 trillion. TOWR’s non-tower contribution increased to 42% of revenue (vs. 33% in 1Q25), reinforcing its role as the key growth driver.

>Aggregate EBITDA grew 2.6% YoY to IDR4.68 trillion, while EBITDA margin normalized to 80.4% (vs. 83.3% in 1Q25) due to the increasing contribution of lower-margin non-tower businesses. Meanwhile, aggregate fiber network length expanded 8.7% YoY to 296K km, highlighting the sector’s continued focus on fiber infrastructure.

>We expect non-tower businesses to remain the primary growth driver, with tenant growth likely to stay at c.3–5% p.a., while fiber businesses could sustain growth of c.8–12% p.a. FWA deployment may provide additional upside for both fiber and tenant demand over the medium term.

>We expect the contribution of non-tower businesses to continue increasing, accompanied by a gradual normalization in sector EBITDA margins toward c.76–79%.

>Upside risks include : 1) lower-than-expected tenant decommissioning rate, 2) lease rate stabilization, and 3) faster monetization of non-tower businesses.

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Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed pada Senin (8/6).

Rebound pada indeks S&P500 dan Nasdaq Composite didukung oleh pulihnya saham-saham chip dan gencatan senjata Iran dan Israel.

Investor menantikan CPI dan PPI bulan Mei pada Rabu (10/6) dan Kamis (11/6).

Data cadangan devisa RI turun pada level US$144.9 miliar di Mei 2026 dari US$146.2 miliar di April 2026 (8/6).

Penjualan sepeda motor turun 5.1% YoY menjadi 479,388 unit di Mei 2026 (8/6).

Harga minyak naik sekitar 1% (8/6).

U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 3 bps ke level 4.568% (8/6).

Harga emas menguat 0.33% di level US$4,343/troy oz (8/6).

Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi akan menguji level support di 5,100.

Top picks (9/6): ADMR, SILO, BRMS dan MBMA.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Ekspektasi inflasi 1 tahun di AS naik menjadi 3.6% pada April 2026, tertinggi dalam setahun, yang menunjukkan bahwa tekanan inflasi jangka pendek masih persisten. Di saat yang sama, ekspektasi inflasi 3-5 tahun tetap stabil di sekitar 3.0-3.1%, sementara ekspektasi pengangguran naik ke 43.9%.

Cadangan devisa Indonesia turun menjadi US$144.9 miliar pada Mei 2026, dari US$146.2 miliar pada April 2026. Meski demikian, cadangan devisa Indonesia masih melampaui standar kecukupan internasional, yakni setara dengan 5.6 bulan impor.