14 February 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat di Kamis (13/2) merespon penundaan implementasi reciprocal tariffs. Tame inflation di AS berlanjut dengan realisasi Producer Price Index (PPI) yang bertahan di level 3.5% yoy di Januari 2025. Presiden AS, Donald Trump dikabarkan telah berbicara dengan Presiden Rusia, Vladimir Putin dan Presiden Ukraina, Volodymyr Zelenskyy dan memerintahkan perwakilan AS untuk memulai pembicaraan penghentian perang. Pasar antisipasi data penjualan ritel AS di Januari 2025 yang diperkirakan turun 0.10% MoM dibanding pertumbuhan 0.40% MoM di Desember 2024. Pasar juga menantikan rilis data Property Price Index di 4Q24. Data ini dapat menjadi salah satu indikator konsumsi rumah tangga yang diyakini menjadi mover utama pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di 4Q24. Selama bertahan di atas 6600, IHSG berpeluang kembali menguji pivot area 6650-6700 di Jumat (14/2). IHSG masih menjaga peluang rebound lanjutan dengan pembentukan long lower shadow (13/2). Top picks (14/2) : PTBA, ANTM, PGEO dan BSDE. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Headline Inflation: 0.50% MoM Headline Inflation: 3.00% YoY Core Inflation: 0.40% MoM Core Inflation: 3.30% YoY U.S. headline inflation rose by 10 basis points to 0.5% MoM in January 2025, from 0.4% MoM in December 2024 and above market expectations of 0.3% MoM. This increase was influenced by a 0.4% MoM rise in the shelter index in January 2025, accounting for nearly 30% of the monthly increase across all goods and services. The energy index rose to 1.1% MoM, with the most significant contributor being the fuel oil index, which increased by 6.2% MoM in January 2025. The food index also increased by 0.4% MoM in January 2025. Additionally, core inflation, which excludes food and energy items, rose by 20 basis points to 0.4% MoM in January 2025 from 0.2% MoM in December 2024. This was due to increased prices for used cars and trucks, as well as hotel accommodation services, which resulted from wildfires in Los Angeles. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

13 February 2025

Mayoritas indeks Wall Street melemah pada perdagangan Rabu (12/2). Inflasi AS naik ke 3.0% yoy di Januari 2025 dari 2.9% yoy di Desember 2024. Kenaikan inflasi tersebut dinilai memvalidasi pandangan hawkish the Fed terkait kebijakan sukubunga acuan di 2025. Di sisi lain, ECB justru menilai laju inflasi di Eropa berada di jalur yang benar menuju target inflasi ECB. Harga batubara masih lanjutkan pelemahan seiring rencana peningkatan produksi China untuk menjaga stabilitas pasokan di negararanya. IHSG catat technical rebound (+1.74%) pasca uji level 6550 yang diyakini sebagai bottom level dari berbagai sentimen yang menekan IHSG. IHSG berpeluang lanjutkan technical rebound ke kisaran 6700 di Kamis (13/2). Indonesia catat pertumbuhan penjualan ritel sebesar 1.8% yoy di Desember 2024, naik dari 0.9% yoy di November 2024. Sebelumnya, Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) berada di 127.2 di Januari 2025, turun tipis dari 127.7 di Desember 2024. Top picks (13/2) : AUTO, MBMA, LSIP, AMRT, dan ACES.

Consumer Confidence Index: 127.2 Retail Sales: -4.8% MoM* | 0.4% YoY* *preliminary Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dipped slightly in January 2024, driven by a decrease in the assessment of current economic conditions, likely due to government budget efficiency policies. However, consumer expectations for the future improved, potentially influenced by declining interest rates. This shift is also reflected in household spending, with a smaller proportion allocated to consumption and a larger share going towards debt payments. Furthermore, retail sales growth is expected to slow significantly in January 2025, following a period of increased spending during the holiday season. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BRIS' net profit grew 22.83% YoY to IDR7 trillion in FY24. The net margin income IDR17.3 trillion grew by 7.1% YoY in FY24. BRIS recorded a financing growth of 15.9% YoY to IDR278 trillion in FY24. This growth was supported by the development of consumer financing (+16.34% YoY), which contributed 55.9% to BRIS' total FY24 financing Tier-1 ROE increased significantly to 17.77% (+89 bps YoY) in FY24. Fee-based income also increased significantly, with the fee-based ratio rising from 15.80% in FY23 to 17.95% in FY24. The gold business has the potential to be a BRIS performance booster. BRIS's gold business recorded significant growth of +78.2% YoY to IDR12.8 trillion in FY24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.47% and Terminal Growth of 7.38%, we estimate a higher fair value for BRIS of 3,580 (upside potential of 17.44%). Considering BRIS's fair price and relative valuation of around 2.75x 5-year Mean P/B, we maintain our buy rating for BRIS. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BMRI's net profit in FY24 grew limitedly (1.3% YoY), reaching 99% of our FY24 estimate. This growth is in line with the development of Interest Income, which grew 14.1% YoY, although Interest Expense increased higher (+35% YoY). Wholesale Business was able to maintain BMRI's credit growth. BMRI recorded a total credit of Rp1,670.5 trillion, increasing by 19.5% YoY in FY24. The current Account savings account (CASA) ratio grew 52 bps YoY in FY24. BMRI recorded a CASA of IDR1,271 trillion (+8.49% YoY) in FY24, with a CASA ratio recorded at 74.8% (+52 bps) YoY. We estimate interest income can grow 7% YoY in FY25F.Another income optimization comes from fee-basedincome, one of which comes from the adaptation of Livin'. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.87% and Terminal Growth of 3.39%, we estimate BMRI's fair value at 6,325 (9.76x expected P/E). Therefore, we still maintain a buy rating for BMRI with a lower fair value and a potential upside of 29.61%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

12 Februari 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street bergerak mixed di Selasa (11/2). Uncertainty meningkat pada outlook sukubunga acuan the Fed seiring peningkatan potensi eskalasi perang dagang yang dipicu oleh implementasi kebijakan tarif terbaru oleh Pemerintah AS. Uni Eropa menyatakan akan melakukan aksi balasan terhadap penerapan tarif impor 25% atas produk baja dan aluminium mulai 4 Maret 2025 oleh Pemerintah AS. Pasar masih mengantisipasi rencana reciprocal tariff oleh Presiden AS, Donald Trump yang awalnya diyakini pasar akan diumumkan pada Senin (10/2). Dari dalam negeri, pasar kecewa dengan realisasi Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) Indonesia di 127.2 di Januari 2025 yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan di 128 dan dari posisi Desember 2024 di 127.7. Konfirmasi breaklow 6550 akan memvalidasi indikasi losing momentum IHSG dan berpotensi lanjutkan bearish trend. Untuk saat ini waspadai level psikologis 6500 sebelum support level berikutnya di 6400. Top picks (12/2) : AUTO, MBMA, LSIP, AMRT, dan ACES. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -