BBRI : Performance below Expectation, Maintain buy with lower target price

17 Feb 2025
BBRI recorded a net profit of IDR60.1 trillion, growing 0.1% YoY in FY24. Interest Income grew 10% YoY, followed by Net Interest Income, which rose 3.4% YoY to IDR137.4 trillion in FY24. Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew 5.1% YoY to IDR919 trillion in FY24. With a CASA ratio of 67.30% in FY24. Loan Deposit Ratio (LDR) increased from 84.22% in FY23 to 88.85%. Despite experiencing tighter liquidity, BBRI's LDR increase was the lowest compared to other big four banks. Moderate credit growth to improve asset quality. BBRI credit grew 7% YoY to IDR1,355 trillion in FY24.4. For FY25F, BBRI targets credit growth of 7%-9% lower than the 2024 target (10%-12%), which aligns with BBRI's efforts to maintain asset quality. Based on BBRI's FY24 performance using the Discounted Cash Flow method, we maintain a BUY rating for BBRI with a fair value of 5.325 (12.94x expected P/E) and a relative valuation below 2.27x its 5-year average P/E and a potential upside of 37.95%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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PHINTAS Monthly SSF Review

17 Feb 2025
17 February  2025
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IHSG diperkirakan cenderung mengakhiri fase konsolidasi

17 Feb 2025
>Indeks-indeks Wall Street catatkan penguatan mingguan di pekan lalu. >Sentimen utama berasal dari penundaan pengumuman reciprocal tarrifs oleh Pemerintah AS setelah Presiden AS, Donald Trump memerintahkan review terhadap kebijakan tersebut. >IHSG diperkirakan cenderung mengakhiri fase konsolidasi di support area 6550-6750 dengan uji 6700-6750 di pekan ini. >Nilai ekspor Indonesia diperkirakan tumbuh 6.99% yoy di Januari 2025 dibandingkan 4.78% yoy di Desember 2024. >Dari eksternal, pasar akan mencermati serangkaian pidato dari petinggi the Fed, diantaranya Harker dari Philadelphia, serta perwakilan Dewan Gubernur, Bowman dan Waller di awal pekan ini. >Top picks : CPIN, PWON, MAPA, INDY, ENRG, dan SMGR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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ISAT: Profitability Under Pressure Amid Rising Operational Costs

14 Feb 2025

 ISAT recorded a net profit decline of IDR1.03 trillion in 4Q24 (-39.93% YoY; -9.69% QoQ), with net profit margin weakening to 7.34% (vs. 8.26% in 3Q24; 12.49% in 4Q23) due to rising operating expenses, primarily driven by higher marketing costs and cost of service. ISAT's revenue grew modestly to IDR14.7 trillion (+1.73% QoQ; +2.24% YoY), supported by the MIDI segment (+4.45% QoQ; +7.49% YoY), while the cellular segment remained relatively flat at IDR11 trillion (+1.44% QoQ; +1.94% YoY). EBITDA contracted to IDR6.37 trillion (-3.24% QoQ; +1.49% YoY) with a margin of 45.29%.Data segment revenue contracted to IDR10.88 trillion (-2.92% QoQ ; -0.86% YoY), in line with a decline in subscribers to 94.70 million (vs. 98.70 million in 3Q24). However, blended ARPU increased to IDR38.90k (vs. IDR37.20k in 3Q24), reflecting ISAT's optimization strategy to retain high-value customers. Management targets above-industry revenue growth, EBITDA growth of >10%, capital expenditure of Rp13 trillion, and expansion into AI-powered services using GPUs. The company also plans a dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2026. We maintain a BUY rating with a lower target price of Rp2,200, based on DCF valuation with an 11% WACC and 2% terminal growth, with downside risks including intense industry competition and weak consumer purchasing power.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research

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IHSG berpeluang kembali menguji pivot area 6650-6700 di Jumat (14/2)

14 Feb 2025
Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat di Kamis (13/2) merespon penundaan implementasi reciprocal tariffs. Tame inflation di AS berlanjut dengan realisasi Producer Price Index (PPI) yang bertahan di level 3.5% yoy di Januari 2025. Presiden AS, Donald Trump dikabarkan telah berbicara dengan Presiden Rusia, Vladimir Putin dan Presiden Ukraina, Volodymyr Zelenskyy dan memerintahkan perwakilan AS untuk memulai pembicaraan penghentian perang. Pasar antisipasi data penjualan ritel AS di Januari 2025 yang diperkirakan turun 0.10% MoM dibanding pertumbuhan 0.40% MoM di Desember 2024. Pasar juga menantikan rilis data Property Price Index di 4Q24. Data ini dapat menjadi salah satu indikator konsumsi rumah tangga yang diyakini menjadi mover utama pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di 4Q24. Selama bertahan di atas 6600, IHSG berpeluang kembali menguji pivot area 6650-6700 di Jumat (14/2). IHSG masih menjaga peluang rebound lanjutan dengan pembentukan long lower shadow (13/2). Top picks (14/2) : PTBA, ANTM, PGEO dan BSDE. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -
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US CPI Inflation January 2025

13 Feb 2025
Headline Inflation: 0.50% MoM Headline Inflation: 3.00% YoY Core Inflation: 0.40% MoM Core Inflation: 3.30% YoY U.S. headline inflation rose by 10 basis points to 0.5% MoM in January 2025, from 0.4% MoM in December 2024 and above market expectations of 0.3% MoM. This increase was influenced by a 0.4% MoM rise in the shelter index in January 2025, accounting for nearly 30% of the monthly increase across all goods and services. The energy index rose to 1.1% MoM, with the most significant contributor being the fuel oil index, which increased by 6.2% MoM in January 2025. The food index also increased by 0.4% MoM in January 2025. Additionally, core inflation, which excludes food and energy items, rose by 20 basis points to 0.4% MoM in January 2025 from 0.2% MoM in December 2024. This was due to increased prices for used cars and trucks, as well as hotel accommodation services, which resulted from wildfires in Los Angeles. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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Level 6550 diyakini sebagai bottom level IHSG

13 Feb 2025
Mayoritas indeks Wall Street melemah pada perdagangan Rabu (12/2). Inflasi AS naik ke 3.0% yoy di Januari 2025 dari 2.9% yoy di Desember 2024. Kenaikan inflasi tersebut dinilai memvalidasi pandangan hawkish the Fed terkait kebijakan sukubunga acuan di 2025. Di sisi lain, ECB justru menilai laju inflasi di Eropa berada di jalur yang benar menuju target inflasi ECB. Harga batubara masih lanjutkan pelemahan seiring rencana peningkatan produksi China untuk menjaga stabilitas pasokan di negararanya. IHSG catat technical rebound (+1.74%) pasca uji level 6550 yang diyakini sebagai bottom level dari berbagai sentimen yang menekan IHSG. IHSG berpeluang lanjutkan technical rebound ke kisaran 6700 di Kamis (13/2). Indonesia catat pertumbuhan penjualan ritel sebesar 1.8% yoy di Desember 2024, naik dari 0.9% yoy di November 2024. Sebelumnya, Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) berada di 127.2 di Januari 2025, turun tipis dari 127.7 di Desember 2024. Top picks (13/2) : AUTO, MBMA, LSIP, AMRT, dan ACES.
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