Daily Fixed Income Report – 10 Juli 2025
Presiden Donald Trump memperingatkan akan mengenakan tarif impor hingga 200% pada perusahaan farmasi, semikonduktor, dan logam yang tidak memindahkan produksinya ke Amerika Serikat dalam waktu 1.5 tahun. Langkah ini bertujuan menekan perusahaan agar meningkatkan kapasitas manufaktur dalam negeri, sekaligus mengguncang pasar keuangan dan menurunkan saham perusahaan farmasi besar.
Penjualan ritel di Indonesia tumbuh 1.9% YoY di Mei 2025, pulih dari kontraksi 0.3% YoY di April yang merupakan penurunan tahunan pertama sejak April 2024. Kenaikan ini didorong oleh peningkatan penjualan makanan, minuman, dan tembakau sebesar 4.0%, serta barang budaya dan rekreasi sebesar 4.7%. Namun, secara bulanan penjualan ritel turun 1.3% MoM pada Mei, membaik dari penurunan 5.1% MoM pada April, terutama karena peningkatan pengeluaran selama beberapa hari libur di bulan tersebut.
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Didorong berita individual emiten, IHSG berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan ke level 6970-7000
Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat (9/7).
Pasar mencermati perkembangan tarif Trump, mencerna FOMC Minutes, serta faktor positif dari penguatan saham sektor teknologi.
Risalah rapat The Fed pada 17-18 Juni menunjukkan The Fed tetap yakin akan memangkas suku bunga tahun ini (9/7).
Presiden Trump mengirimkan surat yang menetapkan tarif baru AS terhadap Filipina, Brunei, Moldova, Aljazair, Irak, Libya, dan Sri Lanka (9/7).
Euforia IPO dan berita aksi korporasi individual saham menjadi faktor positif di BEI.
U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 8 bps ke 4.342%.
Harga emas turun 0.1% ke level US$3,297/troy oz, didorong oleh penguatan dollar AS.
Secara teknikal IHSG berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan ke level 6970-7000.
Top picks (10/7): SCMA, EMTK, MBMA, ACES dan MDKA.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
Ratna Lim
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Rising Consumer Confidence Fuels Optimism for Retail Sales Growth in June 2025
Consumer confidence rose slightly in May 2025, reaching 117.8, primarily due to improved current economic conditions, despite growing concerns about job availability. This period also saw increased consumer spending, particularly on consumption, leading to a decline in savings for lower-middle-income groups. Retail sales, after a dip in May, are projected to rebound in June, driven by the automotive and apparel sectors, as well as the alignment with upcoming holidays and promotions.
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IHSG berpotensi melanjutkan rebound jika bertahan di atas 6900 didukung volume
Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed (8/7).
Pasar mencermati kejelasan perkembangan tarif Trump.
Trump akan mengenakan tarif sebesar 50% pada impor tembaga.
Trump juga berencana akan memberlakukan tarif tinggi seperti 200% pada impor farmasi.
Data retail sales domestik bulan Mei 2025 diperkirakan naik 0.3% YoY dari turun 0.3% YoY di April 2025 (9/7).
U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 1 bps ke 4.407%.
Harga emas turun 0.8% ke level US$3,307/troy oz, didorong oleh penguatan dollar AS dan yield US-Treasury.
>Secara teknikal diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi melanjutkan rebound jika bertahan di atas 6900 didukung volume.
Top picks (9/7): BUMI, TAPG, INTP, JPFA dan ISAT.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
Ratna Lim
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U.S. Imposes Reciprocal Tariffs on ASEAN: Economic Impact Expected
Last night (7/7), U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter to ASEAN leaders announcing the continuation of reciprocal import tariff policies, which will take effect on August 1, 2025. It is expected to cause corrections in ASEAN financial markets, including stock and bond markets. It is also anticipated that ASEAN Central Banks, especially Bank Indonesia, will likely maintain a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate cuts due to concerns about inflation. Indonesia faces a 32% tariff on all exported products, unchanged from the initial rate before the 90-day tariff policy delay was implemented. Other countries face different rates, such as Malaysia, which has a rate of 25%, up from 24%, although still lower than other ASEAN nations like Laos and Myanmar, both at 40%. It is followed by the top 6 ASEAN countries, Thailand and Cambodia, both at 36%.
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TAPG : Sustaining Strong Yields, Powering Future Growth
We expect TAPG booked revenue of IDR 10.5 trillion in FY25F (+9.0% YoY), supported by higher sales volumes of CPO (~680 thousand tons, +6.9% YoY) and PKO (~27 thousand tons, +9.2% YoY). The strong growth was driven by robust domestic demand following the B40 biodiesel mandate, as well as solid PKO demand as a cocoa butter substitute. CPO remains the main revenue contributor (~87%), followed by palm kernel (~9%) and PKO (~4%).
In terms of profitability, TAPG is projected to record a net profit of IDR 3.4 trillion (+10.9% YoY), with a solid net profit margin at 32.8%. This strong performance is underpinned by manageable cost of goods sold, stable fertilizer costs (~IDR 802 billion, +2.0% YoY), and controlled external FFB purchases (~17–18% of total processed volume). Meanwhile, lower interest expenses (estimated at IDR 53 billion, –16.6% YoY) further strengthen the company’s capital structure and support profitability.
TAPG also maintains strong operational fundamentals, with a blended plantation age profile of 14.2 years and ~82% of planted area in the productive phase (7–20 years old). The nucleus estate yield remains solid at ~23 tons/ha, supporting steady production and healthy margins. Total FFB processed is projected to rise to ~3.96 million tons (+2.7% YoY) in FY25F, with internal supply remaining dominant (~82–83%).
On the cash flow side, robust free cash flow (7Y CAGR: 24.7%) enables an aggressive dividend policy, reflected in a sharply higher total dividend of IDR 3.3 trillion in FY24 (DPR: 106.3%). The DPS increased significantly to IDR 167 (yield: ~25%), while the cash balance remains healthy at around IDR 1 trillion by end-2024. This supports future expansion while maintaining attractive shareholder returns.
We initiate coverage on TAPG with a BUY recommendation and a target price of IDR 1,300 per share, reflecting FY25F valuations of 7.5x PER and 2.2x PBV, using a DCF approach (WACC: 16.4%; terminal growth: 2%). We like TAPG for its productive plantation profile, solid balance sheet, and strong cash generation, which provide flexibility for measured long-term growth.
Key risks include lower-than-expected FFB yield, CPO price volatility, and unfavorable regulatory changes. Overall, TAPG is well-positioned to maintain strong operational performance and deliver sustainable value going forward.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Daily Fixed Income Report – 8 Juli 2025
Presiden Donald Trump akan menjalakan tarif impor di 1 Agustus 2025 setelah memberi waktu tambahan bagi negara-negara mitra dagang untuk mencapai kesepakatan baru. Kebijakan ini disertai ancaman tarif tambahan sebesar 10% untuk negara yang dianggap mendukung kebijakan BRICS, tanpa pengecualian. Sementara itu, pasar keuangan global menunjukkan reaksi negatif, dengan indeks S&P 500 turun 0.5% dan dolar AS menguat 0.5% terhadap beberapa mata uang yang direpresentasikan oleh Dollar Index.
Penjualan ritel di Uni Eropa meningkat 1.9% YoY, dengan zona euro mencatat pertumbuhan 1.8% YoY. Secara bulanan, volume penjualan ritel turun 0.8% MoM di UE dan 0.7% MoM di zona euro, dipengaruhi oleh penurunan signifikan di Swedia sebesar 4.6%. Meskipun penurunan ini menimbulkan kekhawatiran, potensi pemulihan tetap ada karena daya beli mulai membaik.
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Indonesia dikenakan tarif impor 32% oleh AS mulai 1 Agustus 2025
Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah cukup signifikan pada Senin (7/7).
Presiden Trump mengirimkan surat kepada beberapa negara dan memberikan tarif impor lebih tinggi.
Deadline tarif diperpanjang dari 9 Juli 2025 menjadi 1 Agustus 2025.
Trump mengancam akan memberlakukan tarif tambahan sebesar 10% terhadap negara-negara yang mendukung kebijakan aliansi BRICS.
Indonesia juga mendapatkan surat dari Trump dan dikenakan tarif sebesar 32%.
U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 5 bps menjadi 4.387%.
Harga emas koreksi 0.1% ke US$3,332/troy oz.
Jika IHSG gagal bertahan di atas 6900, diperkirakan akan kembali menguji level support di 6800.
Top picks (8/7): PTRO, BREN, SRTG, ASII, TLKM dan BBRI.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
Ratna Lim
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