BBRI : Performance below Expectation, Maintain buy with lower target price

17 Feb 2025
BBRI recorded a net profit of IDR60.1 trillion, growing 0.1% YoY in FY24. Interest Income grew 10% YoY, followed by Net Interest Income, which rose 3.4% YoY to IDR137.4 trillion in FY24. Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew 5.1% YoY to IDR919 trillion in FY24. With a CASA ratio of 67.30% in FY24. Loan Deposit Ratio (LDR) increased from 84.22% in FY23 to 88.85%. Despite experiencing tighter liquidity, BBRI's LDR increase was the lowest compared to other big four banks. Moderate credit growth to improve asset quality. BBRI credit grew 7% YoY to IDR1,355 trillion in FY24.4. For FY25F, BBRI targets credit growth of 7%-9% lower than the 2024 target (10%-12%), which aligns with BBRI's efforts to maintain asset quality. Based on BBRI's FY24 performance using the Discounted Cash Flow method, we maintain a BUY rating for BBRI with a fair value of 5.325 (12.94x expected P/E) and a relative valuation below 2.27x its 5-year average P/E and a potential upside of 37.95%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ISAT: Profitability Under Pressure Amid Rising Operational Costs

14 Feb 2025

 ISAT recorded a net profit decline of IDR1.03 trillion in 4Q24 (-39.93% YoY; -9.69% QoQ), with net profit margin weakening to 7.34% (vs. 8.26% in 3Q24; 12.49% in 4Q23) due to rising operating expenses, primarily driven by higher marketing costs and cost of service. ISAT's revenue grew modestly to IDR14.7 trillion (+1.73% QoQ; +2.24% YoY), supported by the MIDI segment (+4.45% QoQ; +7.49% YoY), while the cellular segment remained relatively flat at IDR11 trillion (+1.44% QoQ; +1.94% YoY). EBITDA contracted to IDR6.37 trillion (-3.24% QoQ; +1.49% YoY) with a margin of 45.29%.Data segment revenue contracted to IDR10.88 trillion (-2.92% QoQ ; -0.86% YoY), in line with a decline in subscribers to 94.70 million (vs. 98.70 million in 3Q24). However, blended ARPU increased to IDR38.90k (vs. IDR37.20k in 3Q24), reflecting ISAT's optimization strategy to retain high-value customers. Management targets above-industry revenue growth, EBITDA growth of >10%, capital expenditure of Rp13 trillion, and expansion into AI-powered services using GPUs. The company also plans a dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2026. We maintain a BUY rating with a lower target price of Rp2,200, based on DCF valuation with an 11% WACC and 2% terminal growth, with downside risks including intense industry competition and weak consumer purchasing power.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research

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BRIS: Innovation Maintains BRIS Profits Growth

13 Feb 2025
BRIS' net profit grew 22.83% YoY to IDR7 trillion in FY24. The net margin income IDR17.3 trillion grew by 7.1% YoY in FY24. BRIS recorded a financing growth of 15.9% YoY to IDR278 trillion in FY24. This growth was supported by the development of consumer financing (+16.34% YoY), which contributed 55.9% to BRIS' total FY24 financing Tier-1 ROE increased significantly to 17.77% (+89 bps YoY) in FY24. Fee-based income also increased significantly, with the fee-based ratio rising from 15.80% in FY23 to 17.95% in FY24. The gold business has the potential to be a BRIS performance booster. BRIS's gold business recorded significant growth of +78.2% YoY to IDR12.8 trillion in FY24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.47% and Terminal Growth of 7.38%, we estimate a higher fair value for BRIS of 3,580 (upside potential of 17.44%). Considering BRIS's fair price and relative valuation of around 2.75x 5-year Mean P/B, we maintain our buy rating for BRIS. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BMRI: Wholesale business supports loan growth resilience

13 Feb 2025
BMRI's net profit in FY24 grew limitedly (1.3% YoY), reaching 99% of our FY24 estimate. This growth is in line with the development of Interest Income, which grew 14.1% YoY, although Interest Expense increased higher (+35% YoY). Wholesale Business was able to maintain BMRI's credit growth. BMRI recorded a total credit of Rp1,670.5 trillion, increasing by 19.5% YoY in FY24. The current Account savings account (CASA) ratio grew 52 bps YoY in FY24. BMRI recorded a CASA of IDR1,271 trillion (+8.49% YoY) in FY24, with a CASA ratio recorded at 74.8% (+52 bps) YoY. We estimate interest income can grow 7% YoY in FY25F.Another income optimization comes from fee-basedincome, one of which comes from the adaptation of Livin'. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.87% and Terminal Growth of 3.39%, we estimate BMRI's fair value at 6,325 (9.76x expected P/E). Therefore, we still maintain a buy rating for BMRI with a lower fair value and a potential upside of 29.61%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BBNI: Moderation in Term Deposit Rate Potentially Becomes BBNI’s Catalyst in FY25F

23 Jan 2025
BBNI’s Interest Income grew 8.3% YoY to IDR66.6.7 trillion in FY24 (99% of our 2024F estimate). BBNI’s net interest income grew 6.5% QoQ, down 1.9% YoY in FY24. The higher increase in interest expense compared to interest income pressured BBNI’s interest margin (interest income +8.3% YoY vs. interest expense +29.2% YoY in FY24). BBNI's credit quality remains healthy amid macroeconomic fluctuations. BBNI's gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) fell 10 bps YoY to 2.0% in FY24, with credit growing 11.6% YoY vs. 7.6% YoY in FY23. Moderation of Term Deposits (TD) rate and growth of the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) can potentially optimize BBNI's performance in FY25F. With BBNI's FY24 performance slightly below our expectations, we are lowering our FY25F projection. However, we maintain our BUY rating for BBNI with a lower estimated fair value of 6,150 (18.64x expected P/E) and a potential upside of 28.34%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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TBIG: Balancing Challenges and Growth Potential Amidst a Moderate Outlook

22 Jan 2025
3Q24 Financial Performance and Near-Term Challenges TBIG reported revenue of IDR 1.71 trillion in 3Q24 (+0.17% YoY; +2.37% QoQ), with EBITDA reaching IDR 1.46 trillion (+1.66% YoY; +0.35% QoQ) and an EBITDA margin of 85.63%. Despite a slight increase in revenue, tenant growth remains limited, with a total of 42.4 thousand tenants (+2.35% YTD). The decline in tenancy ratio to 1.84x for 9M24 reflects the impact of the ongoing consolidation between ISAT and Hutchison. We anticipate continued pressure through 2025 due to high interest rates and ongoing consolidation among telecommunications operators. Moderate Growth Projection and Fiber Segment Contribution Although the challenges of operator consolidation and high interest rates will limit growth, the fiber segment is expected to provide significant contribution to TBIG’s growth. We project TBIG's topline to grow moderately by 8.08% in 2025F, with the fiber segment contributing 11.50% to revenue in 2025F. However, tenant growth is expected to remain flat, with a projected total of 43 thousand tenants by 2025 and a slight decrease in tenancy ratio to 1.79x. Initiate Coverage with HOLD Rating We initiate coverage on TBIG with a HOLD rating and a target price of IDR 2,250, implying an upside potential of 7.66%, which reflects an EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.50x for FY25F. Our valuation is based on a combination of DCF (70%) and EV/EBITDA multiple (30%). The HOLD rating is assigned considering the moderate sentiment we expect to prevail throughout 2025. Challenges such as ongoing telecommunications operator consolidation and relatively high interest rates are projected to limit TBIG's growth potential. Upside risks include: (1) A reduction in interest rates, and (2) a low level of overlapping tenants. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ACES: Rebranding to AZ-KO Brand Potentially Reduces Operating Expenses

09 Jan 2025
ACES recorded revenue of IDR6.23 trillion in 9M24, growing 13.37% YoY. The revenue growth was driven by the Lifestyle Products segment, which grew 20.55% YoY to IDR2.7 trillion in 9M24, and the Home Improvement Products segment, which grew 9.10% YoY to IDR3.18 trillion in 9M24. ACES recorded higher operating profit amid higher operating expenses in 9M24. ACES's operating profit grew 20.27% YoY to IDR748 billion in 9M24 (vs. IDR622 billion in 9M23) amid a 14.2% YoY increase in operating expenses to IDR1.9 trillion in 9M24 (vs. IDR1.67 trillion in 9M23). ACES officially released the ACE Hardware license by introducing a new brand called AZ-KO. In the long term, we assess that the license termination with ACE Hardware will reduce ACES's operating expenses and potentially improve profitability. However, in the short term, ACES's advertising and promotion expenses could potentially increase along with introducing the new brand. ACES plans to continue expanding to reach more customers. As of October 2024, ACES has opened 15 new stores in various cities in Indonesia with Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) of 9.3% YTD in 10M24 (vs. 8% Guidance 2024). We assess that ACES's expansion plans amidst the transition to a new brand can strengthen ACES's presence in the market and potentially drive future financial performance. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.81% and Terminal Growth of 3.06%, we estimate ACES's fair value at IDR955 per share (Expected PE at 17.29x and EV/EBITDA at 8.93x in FY24). We give ACES a Buy rating with a potential upside 35.46%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BNGA : CASA growth and selective loan growth are still BNGA’s focus

09 Des 2024
BNGA's net profit grew 4.7% YoY to IDR5.1 trillion in 9M24. This aligns with Interest Income, which grew 7.8% YoY to IDR18 trillion in 9M24. BNGA revised its Cost of Credit (COC) guidance to below 1% for FY24F. BNGA lowered its COC to 0.88% in 9M24 from 1.22% in 9M23. Credit growth was accompanied by improvements in asset quality in 9M24. BNGA recorded credit growth of 6.4% YoY to IDR218.5 trillion in 9M24. Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew 8.8% YoY in 9M24. CASA was recorded at IDR171 trillion, an increase of 8.8% YoY, with a CASA ratio of 67.7% in 9M24. CASA growth and selective loan growth are still BNGA's focus. BNGA will continue to focus on corporate and consumer financing. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.4% and Terminal Growth of 4%, we estimate BNGA's fair value at Rp2,315 (8.57x expected P/E). Therefore, we maintain a buy rating for BNGA with a potential upside of 30.03% By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BBTN: Growth property sector will optimize BBTN profitability

04 Des 2024
BBTN recorded an Interest Income of IDR22.37 trillion, growing 7.4% YoY in 9M24. Meanwhile, Interest Expense increased 26.0% YoY to IDR13.47 trillion, with an Operating Profit Before Provision (PPOP) of IDR4.02 trillion (-32% YoY) in 9M24. BBTN's loan & financing grew 11.9% YoY to IDR356 trillion in 9M24. This growth was supported by housing loan growth, which rose 10.4% YoY in 9M24. The current Account Saving Account (CASA) ratio grew 150 bps YoY in 9M24. BBTN recorded total Third Party Funds of IDR371 trillion (+14.5% YoY) in 9M24. BBTN will continue its efforts to develop high-yield loans in FY25F. BBTN targets 15 Sales Centers in FY25, compared to 6 Sales Centers in 9M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.67% and Terminal growth of 7.59%, we estimate BBTN's fair value at 1,460 (5.60x expected P/E). Considering BBTN's fair price and relative valuation, below its 0.73 5-year average P/B, we maintain a buy rating for with a potential upside of 20.91%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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MIDI : Launching JA-DI to Increase Profitability

02 Des 2024
MIDI recorded revenue of Rp14.69 trillion in 9M24, growing 13.64% YoY (vs. Rp12.92 trillion in 9M23). Revenue in Food segment grew 12.8% YoY to Rp8.85 trillion (vs. Rp7.85 trillion in 9M23), Fresh Food segment grew 16% YoY to Rp2.08 trillion (vs. Rp1.79 trillion in 9M23), and Non-Food segment grew 14.32% YoY to Rp3.74 trillion (vs. Rp3.27 trillion in 9M23). Non-operational performance improved in 9M24. MIDI's non-operating expenses decreased by 57% YoY to Rp36 billion in 9M24 (vs. Rp83 billion in 9M23). The decline was aligned with MIDI's Interest Expenses, which decreased by 55.7% YoY due to the repayment of MIDI's short-term bank debt in 9M24. We assess that this condition can potentially improve MIDI's financial performance, especially in maximizing profitability in the future. Expansion continues in 9M24. During 9M24, MIDI added 123 Alfamidi stores and 9 Alfamidi Super stores, indicating that MIDI continues to expand to increase revenue. At the same time, 3 Midi Fresh outlets were closed. In addition, MIDI also evaluated Lawson stores by closing 79 Lawson stores that had negative EBITDA or cash flow to reduce further losses. In the future, MIDI plans to close all Lawson outlets with a store-in-store format as it is considered less profitable and will focus on Lawson with a stand-alone format. MIDI innovated by launching a pilot project called JA-DI (Jajan di Alfamidi) in August 2024. MIDI targets to open 50 JA-DI booths by the end of 2024. We believe that this innovation can potentially increase MIDI's sales and profitability in the future. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.63% and Terminal Growth of 7.80%, we estimate MIDI's fair value at IDR513 per share (Expected PE at 24.94x and EV/EBITDA at 9.24x in FY24). We give MIDI a Buy rating with a potential upside of 24.00%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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