TLKM: Soft Start, Brighter Ahead
TLKM reported 1Q25 revenue of IDR 36.64 trillion (-2.9% QoQ; -2.1% YoY), in line with expectations (Phintas: 23.72%, Cons: 23.60%). The decline was driven by weaker performance in Data, Internet & IT Services, which contracted -5.42% YoY. However, the IndiHome segment grew by +0.41% QoQ (+3.45% YoY) to IDR 6.66 trillion.
Operationally, administrative expenses rose by 18.83% YoY due to seasonal effects, while marketing expenses decreased by -40.90% QoQ, reflecting cost efficiency. TLKM recorded an EBITDA of IDR 18.23 trillion (-0.92% QoQ; -6.12% YoY) with a margin of 49.76%, and net profit reached IDR 5.81 trillion (-2.75% QoQ; -4.01% YoY).
Telkomsel’s deliberate churn elimination led to a 0.9% YoY decline in subscribers to 158.8 million, though postpaid subscribers increased by 6.2% YoY. ARPU declined to IDR 42.4k, but data consumption grew 5.3% QoQ (+19.78% YoY). IndiHome added 230K new net subscribers, with convergence penetration at 55%. BTS units increased to 278K, including 1,910 5G BTS (+169.1% YoY).
Commitment to improving market conditions through starter pack price adjustments is expected to restore market rationality and drive long-term profitability. While this strategy should gradually boost ARPU, it may result in a slight decline in subscriber numbers. As a result, we forecast modest revenue growth of 1.68% YoY for FY25E and 2.46% YoY for FY26F.
Despite the flat revenue growth, we expect TLKM’s EBITDA margin to improve, reaching 49.87% in FY25E and 50.37% in FY26F. The company's ability to sustain profitability amid a challenging environment underscores its operational efficiency.
With a combination of steady revenue and high interest expenses, we estimate TLKM’s net profit at IDR 22.41 trillion for FY25E, with a net profit margin of 14.69%, highlighting the company’s resilience and capacity for stable financial performance.
We maintain a BUY rating with a new target price of IDR 2,950, implying a forward EV/EBITDA of 4.55×/4.33× for FY25F/FY26F. TLKM’s stock trades at a 22.7% discount to the 5-year average, supported by a buyback plan and dividends. Downside risks include ARPU pressure, competition, and weakened purchasing power.
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BBNI : Moderation in Term Deposit Rate Potentially Becomes BBNI’s Catalyst in FY25F
BBNI’s net profit grew 1% YoY (4.4% QoQ) to IDR 5.4 trillion in 3M25. BBNI’s net interest income rose 4.7% YoY but declined 10.9% QoQ in 3M25.
The increase in interest expenses, which outpaced interest income, pressured BBNI’s interest margin (interest income +5.3% YoY vs. interest expense +6.2% YoY in 3M25).
Moderation of Term Deposits (TD) rate and growth of the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) can potentially optimize BBNI's performance in FY25F.
BBNI’s TD rates have continued to rise in line with increases in the benchmark interest
rate. BBNI’s TD rates for 2022–2024 were (3.32%, 4.65%, and 4.82%).Thus, we believe that with a decline in the BI rate, BBNI’s TD rate could also moderate by around ±1% in 2025F
With BBNI's 3M35 performance slightly below our expectations, we lower our FY25F projection. However, we maintain our BUY rating for BBNI with a lower estimated fair value of 5.325 (8.29x expected P/E) and a potential upside of 27.09%.
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ACES : Net Profit Growth Driven by Solid Revenue in FY24
ACES booked revenue growth of 12.75% YoY to IDR8.58 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by a significant increase in lifestyle product sales by 17.99% YoY to IDR3.71 trillion, followed by home improvement product sales up by 9.67% YoY to IDR4.39 trillion in FY24. Meanwhile, toy product sales increased 3.34% YoY to IDR315 billion, and consignment sales increased 4.22% YoY to IDR156 billion in FY24.
ACES booked Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) of 8.6% YoY in March 2025. This marked a recovery from the February 2025 SSSG realization, which contracted by 6.6% YoY. The improvement in SSSG in March 2025 was supported by increased demand during the Ramadhan period and ahead of Eid al-Fitr.
ACES booked a net profit growth of 15.82% YoY to IDR885 billion in FY24. The growth in net profit was supported by ACES's double-digit revenue growth in FY24, which was able to cover the increase in operating expenses.
Expansion will continue in 2025. The positive performance in FY24 strengthens ACES's commitment to expanding to more areas in Indonesia, both physically and through its omnichannel. ACES plans to expand to the easternmost region of Indonesia, with a target of opening 25-30 new stores in 2025.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.38% and Terminal Growth of 2.5%, we estimate ACES's fair value at IDR 685 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on ACES with a lower target and potential upside of 37.00%.
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BBCA : Loan Growth is Accompanied by Maintained Asset Quality
BBCA's net profit grew 9.8% YoY to IDR14.1 trillion in 3M25 (IDR56.6 trillion Annualized or 25% of our 2025F).
A maintained Term Deposit Rate accompanied BBCA's Third Party Fund growth. Third Party Funds (TPF) grew 6.5% YoY to IDR1.2 trillion in 3M25.
Increased third-party funds (TPF) also accompanied this credit growth. BBCA's TPF grew 2.9% YoY to IDR1.134 trillion in FY24, with the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) growing 4.4% YoY. BBCA's Term Deposit Rate fell 90 bps YoY to 3.15%. Quarterly, BBCA's TD rate also recorded a decline of 20 bps (3.13% in 4Q24).
BBCA's loan growth grew 12.6% YoY to IDR941 trillion in 3M25 (vs industry 9.16%).Corporate loan supported this growth, which rose 13.9% YoY, followed by Consumer loan (+11.3% YoY).
BBCA's asset quality remains healthy amid macroeconomic fluctuations. Gross NPL is above BBCA's gross NPL in the last four years (2%).
Strong customer relationships are BBCA's competitive advantage. Customers increased by 7% YoY to 33 million in 3M25, with BCA's mobile banking transaction volume reaching 9.9 billion transactions (+19% YoY) in 3M25.
We maintain our BUY recommendation for BBCA shares, with an estimated fair value of Rp11,400. This assessment is based on the Dividend Discount Model and relative valuation analysis, which is still below 4.37x average +1 St. Dev P/B 5 years.
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ANTM : Gold Drives ANTM’s FY24 Growth, Dominating Key Drivers
ANTM reported revenue of IDR25.99 trillion in 4Q24 (+29.88% QoQ; +156.09% YoY), bringing FY24 revenue to IDR69.19 trillion, up 68.57% YoY (vs. FY23: IDR41.05 trillion). This growth was mainly driven by robust growth in gold revenue, which jumped 120.34% YoY to IDR57.56 trillion (vs. FY23: IDR26.12 trillion).
Gold sales surpassed management's guidance by 17.22% in FY24 (vs. 37.35 tons / 1,200,959 troy ounces). By the end of 2024, gold sales had reached 43.78 tons (1,407,431 troy ounces). ANTM's gold selling price significantly increased, climbing to IDR1.52 million per gram on December 25, 2024 (-1.25% MoM; +25.46% YoY). Despite the higher price, sales growth remained strong and rose by 67.5% YoY (vs. FY23: 26.13 tons / 840,067 troy ounces). This advancement was driven by increased domestic demand amid geopolitical tensions, which the company capitalized on by ramping up production and strengthening reserves through an annual gold purchase of 30 tons from Freeport's smelter starting in 2025.
The nickel segment is expected to be optimized in FY25. Following the approval of the Work Plan and Budget for 2024, management aims to increase nickel ore production to 16.9 million wmt (+102.29% from 8.35 million wmt in FY24). Overcoming these regulatory challenges is anticipated to significantly enhance operational capacity, facilitating recovery in nickel-related revenue streams.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation method, with a required rate of return of 8.97% and a terminal growth rate of 1.15%, we estimate ANTM’s fair value at IDR2,400 per share (implying 13.37x / 1.58x expected P/E and P/BV). This positive outlook is fueled by rising domestic demand, increasing gold prices, and improved efficiency in reducing ferronickel production cash costs.
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MIDI : Potential Efficiency From Lawson Divestment
MIDI booked revenue growth of 14.62% YoY to IDR19.88 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by a 22.71% YoY increase in sales of the fresh food segment to IDR2.96 trillion in FY24, followed by the non-food segment up 17% YoY to IDR5.25 trillion and the food segment up 11.71% YoY to IDR11.66 trillion in FY24.
Operating expenses pressured net profit in FY24. MIDI booked a 7.89% YoY decrease in net profit to IDR476 billion in FY24. The decrease was due to an increase in selling and distribution expenses by 14.17% YoY to IDR3.27 trillion in FY24 and general and administrative expenses by 16.65% YoY to IDR456 billion.
Continued expansion supported revenue growth in FY24. Alfamidi stores increased by 190 stores to 2,368 stores, and Alfamidi Super stores increased by 16 stores to 62 stores in FY24. Meanwhile, MIDI closed 3 Midi Fresh stores in FY24, bringing the number of MIDI Fresh stores to 5 stores.
MIDI divested Lawson to AMRT. This decision is based on considerations for implementing a more effective and efficient business strategy. With this transaction, MIDI is expected to improve and enhance its financial performance and focus more on its core business in the minimarket and supermarket segment.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.58% and Terminal Growth of 3.88%, we estimate MIDI's fair value at IDR428 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on MIDI with a lower target and potential upside of 25.15%.
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AMRT : Strengthen Ready-to-Eat (RTE) Products Through Lawson Acquisition
AMRT booked revenue growth of 10.55% YoY to IDR118.23 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by a 10.08% YoY increase in sales of the food segment to IDR83.28 trillion and an 11.7% YoY increase in the non-food segment to IDR34.95 trillion in FY24.
AMRT's net profit grew 20.71% QoQ in 4Q24. The growth was driven by higher revenue and operating cost efficiency in 4Q24. This operating efficiency was mainly due to the decrease in selling and distribution expenses by 5.89% QoQ to IDR4.72 trillion in 4Q24, which caused operating expenses to decrease by 2.6% QoQ to IDR5 trillion in 4Q24.
Continued expansion supported FY24 performance. AMRT's stores increased by 967 stores to 23,277 stores in FY24. In 2024, AMRT added 3 new distribution centers to improve supply chain efficiency and plans to add 2 new distribution centers in 2025.
AMRT acquired all the shares of PT Lancar Wiguna Sejahtera (LWS), which is owned by MIDI. The acquisition is expected to expand and strengthen AMRT's Ready-to-Eat (RTE) food product category, as LWS currently operates 374 Lawson stores that sell mainly RTE products to consumers.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 6.85% and Terminal Growth of 3.09%, we estimate AMRT's fair value at IDR2,570 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on AMRT with a lower target and potential upside of 31.46%.
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CTRA: The geographic diversification of CTRA’s portfolio remains a competitive advantage
Net profit grew 15% YoY to IDR2.3 trillion in FY24. Revenue rose 21% YoY to IDR11.2 trillion in FY24. The revenue growth was driven by a 25% YoY growth in the property development segment and +7% YoY in the recurring segment in FY24.
A geographically diversified product portfolio is the advantage of CTRA's residential segment. Until FY24, CTRA had 89 projects in 34 cities in Indonesia. In FY24, Greater Jakarta contributed 40% of marketing sales, followed by Greater Surabaya 23% and Sumatra 19%. With this diversification, CTRA can minimize concentration risk.
CTRA's marketing sales grew 8% YoY to IDR11 trillion in FY24. This achievement continues the upward trend in 2023, where CTRA recorded the highest marketing sales at IDR10.2 trillion. CTRA's average marketing sales growth has reached 14% in the last three years.
We estimate CTRA's net profit can grow 9% YoY in FY25F. CTRA's solid bottom line performance is supported by VAT incentives borne by the government, loan-tovalue discounts, and relatively stable Non-Performing Loan conditions in the property sector.
We maintain our buy rating for CTRA, which has an estimated fair value of 1320 (previously 1570) and a potential upside of 61.96%. The fair value is obtained using the Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods and reflects 10.77x expected P/E FY25F and a 55% discount to NAV.
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BSDE: BSD City is expected to be a key driver of marketing sales FY25F
Net profit grew 117% YoY to IDR4.9 trillion in FY24. This growth is in line with the increase in revenue of 19.6% YoY to IDR13.8 trillion in FY24. In addition, the revenue margin also increased.
Land and building sales remain the segment with the highest margin in FY24. Gross profit margin (GPM) from land and building sales was 66%, followed by the water management segment at 64% and Construction at 59%.
BSDE marketing sales grew 2% YoY to IDR 9.7 trillion and exceeded the target of IDR 9.5 trillion in FY24. For FY25, BSDE is targeting marketing sales of IDR10 trillion (+3% YoY), which is contributed by the residential segment (51%), commercial (34%), and others (15%).
The BSD city residential segment, as the flagship project of BSDE, is targeted tocontribute 18% of the total FY25F marketing sales target.
We estimate that revenue will grow 8% YoY to reach IDR 15 trillion in FY25E. The continued implementation of loan-to-value (LTV) discounts, government-covered VAT incentives in 2025, and BSDE's strong reputation in project development are expected to be key growth drivers
We maintain our buy rating for BSDE, which has an estimated fair value of 1185 (previously 1425) and a potential upside of 50.78%. The fair value is derived using the discounted cash flow method and net asset value revaluation, which reflects an expected P/E of 7.48x FY25F and a discount to NAV of 65%.
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MTEL : Steady Core, Accelerating Edge
MTEL recorded revenue of IDR 2.49 trillion in 4Q24 (+5.14% QoQ; +7.25% YoY), bringing total FY24 revenue to IDR 9.31 trillion (+8.30% YoY). This result exceeded our estimates (Phintas: 103%) but was slightly below market consensus (Cons: 96%). Growth was primarily driven by a strong rebound in the fiber segment, which surged 40.40% YoY (+114.14% QoQ), reaching IDR 212 billion in 4Q24. Meanwhile, the tower leasing segment saw more modest growth, with revenue reaching IDR 1.96 trillion (+0.05% QoQ; +2.45% YoY).
EBITDA for 4Q24 came in at IDR 2.03 trillion (+3.03% QoQ; +8.65% YoY), boosting total FY24 EBITDA to IDR 7.70 trillion (+11.18% YoY). The EBITDA margin expanded to 82.68% from 80.53% in FY23, reflecting solid operational efficiency. Net Profit for FY24 was IDR 2.11 trillion (+0.38% YoY), in line with our forecast (Phintas: 99%), although slightly below market consensus (Cons: 88%).
MTEL continues to show operational resilience despite industry consolidation. The company recorded a solid +4.28% YoY growth in tenants, reaching 59.87 thousand tenants (vs. 57.41 thousand in FY23). Fiber network expansion saw significant growth, rising +56.94% YoY to 51.04 thousand km. The tenancy ratio stood at 1.52x (vs. 1.51x in FY23). MTEL operates 39 thousand towers, with 16 thousand towers in Java (41% of the portfolio) and a tenancy ratio of 1.64x. The rest of the towers are located outside Java (59% of the portfolio), with a lower tenancy ratio of 1.44x.
While the tower industry is facing challenges due to consolidation, particularly with the EXCL-FREN merger, the impact on MTEL’s performance is expected to be limited, as EXCL’s contribution to MTEL’s revenue is relatively small (FY24: 12.16% vs. 4-year average of 10.58%). For FY25E, we forecast MTEL to achieve a revenue of IDR 9.58 trillion, driven by a strong tower leasing segment (IDR 7.84 trillion). This growth will be supported by a recovery in demand for collocation services and build-to-suit (B2S) offerings, particularly from tenants like IOH. MTEL has allocated a capex budget of IDR 5.4 trillion for FY25E, targeting an additional 2.5 thousand new tenants (net after EXCL-FREN consolidation).
MTEL has set a target of expanding 10 thousand km of fiber through both organic and inorganic strategies. We estimate fiber business revenue to grow +3.65% YoY to IDR 579 billion in FY25E. EBITDA is expected to reach IDR 7.88 trillion in FY25E, with margins remaining strong at around 82.31% to 82.51% for FY25-F27F. Despite the moderate growth outlook and elevated interest expenses, we expect net profit to grow by +3.90% YoY to IDR 3.90 trillion in FY25E.
We maintain our BUY rating for MTEL with a revised target price of IDR 700 (previous: IDR 720), reflecting an EV/EBITDA of 9.7x for FY25F. Despite headwinds from industry consolidation, MTEL’s long-term prospects remain positive, underpinned by a solid capital structure, low leverage, and growth potential from the fiber business. Downside Risks: 1)Weakening tenant demand, particularly for new build-to-suit (B2S) projects and collocation. 2) Pressure from high interest rates, which could affect profitability.
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