TUGU: Top General Insurance Player, Strong Fundamentals & High Dividend

06 Oct 2025 Company Update
TUGU stands out as a leading general insurance player with an integrated ecosystem. Although the company is backed by Pertamina as its controlling shareholder (58.5%), contributions from the parent account for less than 30% of premiums.Strong fundamentals are underpinned by favorable industry prospects. As one of the largest listed general insurers, TUGU benefits from a capital base that far exceeds OJK’s minimum requirements, with a consistently high RBC ratio of over 300%.Solid financial performance with attractive dividend potential. TUGU became one of the first general insurers to adopt PSAK 117 in 2025. In the longer run, PSAK 117 will make earnings more predictable and aligned with global benchmarks.We project EPS growth of 9–11% CAGR over the next four years. Based on this outlook and an assumed payout ratio of 40%, TUGU’s dividend yield could reach 8–10% in the coming years.Attractive valuation & initiate with a BUY recommendation at Rp1,960/share. Our valuation is based on three approaches: (1) Dividend Discount Model (50% weight), reflecting TUGU’s profile as a dividend play; (2) ROE vs. PBV comparison (25% weight), capturing a fair multiple of book value relative to capital strength and market appetite; and (3) discount to investment portfolio (25% weight). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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SIDO: Expansion into Global Market with a Strong Brand

02 Oct 2025 Company Update
SIDO experienced a decrease in revenue by 3.57% YoY to IDR1.83 trillion in 6M25, along with lower sales in all of SIDO's business segments in 6M25. Going forward, we expect a better demand in 2H25, along with the estimated peak of the rainy season that will happen from November 2025 to February 2026, which can potentially boost the demand for SIDO's Tolak Angin products.We estimate SIDO's net profit to be stable in FY25F. This estimate is based on the limited revenue growth potential in FY25F due to people's purchasing power that has not fully recovered, especially in the lower-middle class. During 6M25, SIDO experienced a decrease in net profit by 1.32% YoY to IDR600 billion, along with the decrease in revenue, which caused operating profit to decrease by 1.75% YoY to IDR746 billion in 6M25.The chemical, pharmaceutical, and traditional medicine industries still have room to grow in the long term. This is based on the GDP trends of the chemical, pharmaceutical, and traditional medicine industries, which have continued to recover after Covid-19. In addition, manufacturing activity in this industry remains in an expansive zone in 2Q25 and has tended to stabilize over the past year.SIDO is the market leader for common cold products, with the Tolak Angin brand. In addition, SIDO's Tolak Angin and Kuku Bima Ener-G! products have successfully penetrated the global market. This indicates that SIDO's products are not only well-received in the domestic market but also able to compete globally, which is expected to drive long-term growth.We give a Buy recommendation for SIDO with an estimated fair value of IDR635 per share or potential upside of 20.95%. This recommendation is based on a calculation using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.26% and a Terminal Growth of 2.00%.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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STAA: Young Estates, Strong Yields, Refinery-Driven Upside

29 Sep 2025 Company Update
STAA is a fully integrated palm oil company with 49k hectares of planted land across North & South Sumatra and Kalimantan. The plantation profile is relatively young, with an average tree age of 14 years—74.3% in prime stage (8–20 years), 9.4% mature (>20 years), and 10% immature. Productivity remains superior, with combined FFB yields of 23.41 tons/ha and 23.98 tons/ha for nucleus estates, above the industry average of ~19–20 tons/ha. Operations are supported by 10 palm oil mills (450 TPH), a kernel crushing plant (600 TPD), a solvent extraction plant (500 TPD), and a downstream refinery & fractionation facility (2,000 TPD), making STAA fully integrated from upstream to downstream.CPO production is expected to remain stable in 2H25F under neutral climatic conditions, with an 82% ENSO-neutral probability through August and 48% into winter, maintaining consistent rainfall in Southeast Asia. A major supply rebound appears limited, given structural headwinds in Indonesia and Malaysia such as stagnant output, aging trees, and slow replanting. On pricing, global CPO has averaged USD 972/MT as of mid-September, while price spreads have narrowed due to India’s restocking ahead of Diwali and lower import tariffs, offering modest price support.We project FY25E revenue of IDR 8.38 trillion (+30.1% YoY), underpinned by stronger volumes, improved ASP, and incremental downstream contribution from the refinery (olein ~IDR 4.43 trillion, stearin ~IDR 838 billion, RBDPO ~IDR 99 billion, PFAD ~IDR 205 billion). Gross profit is forecast at IDR 2.23 trillion (+1.98% YoY) with ~27% margin, initially weighed by external CPO purchases (IDR 1.12 trillion) and new plant ramp-up. Margins are expected to expand to 28–29% in FY26–FY27F as internal feedstock utilization improves. Net profit FY25E is estimated at IDR 1.33 trillion (+3.6% YoY) with a 16% net margin, rising to IDR 1.64 trillion (+23.7% YoY) and ~18–19% margin in FY26F–FY28F as downstream operations scale.We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and a target price of IDR 1,400/share, implying PER of 11.5x/9.3x and PBV of 2.5x/2.1x for FY25E/FY26F, using a DCF approach (WACC 11.5%; TG 2.5%). The stock currently trades at an EV/ha of IDR 299 million, above the industry average of IDR 162.9 million—reflecting its younger plantation profile, high productivity, low replanting needs, and growing downstream integration.We view STAA as attractive due to: (1) productive plantation age averaging 14 years, (2) core estate yields near 24 tons/ha, (3) new Riau refinery enhancing value capture, and (4) a healthy balance sheet with low leverage to support measured growth.Key downside risks include: (1) global CPO price volatility, (2) weather-related yield disruptions, (3) fertilizer price fluctuations, and (4) regulatory changes on biodiesel mandates or export taxes.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research –Disclaimer On–
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TAPG: Strong Fundamentals, Promising Returns Ahead

12 Sep 2025 Company Update
TAPG posted solid top-line growth in 2Q25, driven by strong performance in the CPO, PK, and PKO segments. Revenue reached IDR 2.89 trillion (+10.2% QoQ; +33.4% YoY), mainly from CPO at IDR 2.34 trillion (+7.1% QoQ; +24.4% YoY) with sales volume of 168k tons (+11.7% QoQ; +12.6% YoY) despite a slight ASP decline to IDR 13,895/kg (-4.1% QoQ; +10.5% YoY). The PK segment contributed IDR 348 billion (+13.6% QoQ; +94.9% YoY), while PKO also performed well with 6.6k tons (+50.0% QoQ; +20.0% YoY) and ASP rising to IDR 26,451/kg (+7.6% QoQ; +64.1% YoY).Profitability improved as COGS was well-managed, standing at IDR 1.76 trillion (+3.3% QoQ; +22.6% YoY), driven by higher raw material costs of IDR 1.23 trillion (+10.0% QoQ; +35.5% YoY) and external FFB purchases of 338k tons (+9.0% QoQ; +18.8% YoY). Gross profit reached IDR 1.12 trillion (+23.3% QoQ; +55.5% YoY), while net profit was IDR 889 billion (+10.4% QoQ; +49.3% YoY) with net margin improving to 30.8%. Earnings from associates of IDR 272 billion (+4.8% QoQ; +37.7% YoY) also supported the bottom line.TAPG 1H25 strong results prompt upward revisions: FY25F/FY26F revenue +4.8%/+7.3%, EBITDA +5.9%/+7.9%, NP +5.5%/+9.6%. CPO prices seen stable at MYR4,200–4,500/MT, while higher PK & PKO ASPs boost margins.We maintain our BUY recommendation with an increased target price of IDR 1,700/share, implying P/E of 9.2x/8.3x and P/BV of 2.8x/2.6x for FY25F/FY26F.We view TAPG as still attractive due to: (1) a relatively young plantation profile (blended age: 14.2 years) with stable productivity prospects, (2) a consistent dividend track record (DPR AVG-3Y: >50%), and (3) a healthy and solid balance sheet with DER <1xKey downside risks : (1) global CPO and edible oil price volatility, (2) unfavorable government regulations, and (3) weather disruptions affecting plantation productivity.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On-
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EXCL: New Chapter, New Potential

08 Sep 2025 Company Update
EXCL recorded a net loss of IDR 1.6 trillion in 2Q25, driven by higher operating expenses and integration costs. On the revenue side, EXCL posted IDR 10.5 trillion (+22.0% QoQ; +21.8% YoY), supported by the data segment at IDR 9.6 trillion (+21.4% QoQ; +19.5% YoY). The combined subscriber base of EXCL.IJ and FREN.IJ reached 82.6 million, contributing to a 2Q25 data consumption increase of 3.8 PB (+34.0% QoQ; +43.5% YoY). However, blended ARPU declined to IDR 36k (–10.0% QoQ; –18.2% YoY) due to FREN’s ARPU contribution (IDR 25k in 1Q25), lower than EXCL (IDR 40k in 1Q25).EBITDA remained relatively stable at IDR 4.5 trillion (+3.8% QoQ; –0.4% YoY), though margin fell to 42.8% (vs 52.3% in 2Q24) as opex rose significantly from asset consolidation and post-merger network integration. Total opex climbed +45.5% QoQ to IDR 10.55 trillion, driven by higher infrastructure costs (+29.1% QoQ), depreciation (+54.6% QoQ), and employee expenses (+114.1% QoQ).XLSmart has emerged as a new force in the telecom industry, combining XL Axiata and Smartfren’s networks to create a foundation for sustainable growth. The expanded spectrum portfolio and wider coverage now reach 475 cities, including 156 new cities, with 11k BTS activated for Smartfren. Total BTS grew 28% YoY to 209.82k (pre-merger: 163.88k), while 4G BTS increased 39% YoY to 160.34k. The merger is expected to enhance customer experience, improve ARPU, and reinforce EXCL’s position as a leading player with long-term growth potential.For FY25E, management projects EBITDA margin in the low-to-mid 40% range, reflecting integration costs. Integration costs for 2H25 are guided at IDR 1 trillion, covering network consolidation, tower dismantling, and employee expenses. Total CAPEX is expected at IDR 20 trillion. Gross merger synergies are projected at USD 100–200 million (±IDR 1.6–3.2 trillion), mainly from network consolidation and tower lease savings, creating long-term value for profitability.We maintain our BUY recommendation on EXCL with a higher target price of Rp3,100/share (prev: Rp2,900), implying EV/EBITDA of 6.35x/5.92x for FY25E/FY26F. We remain optimistic about post-merger prospects as synergies gradually materialize, although integration challenges remain. By comparison, the ISAT-Hutch merger showed flat performance 2–3 years post-merger, though EBITDA improved in the second year as cost structures normalized.Downside Risks: slower-than-expected traffic growth and longer-than-anticipated network integration.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research –Disclaimer On–
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KLBF : Innovation and Collaboration to Drive Long-term Growth

04 Sep 2025 Company Update
KLBF booked revenue growth of 4.6% YoY to IDR17.08 trillion in 6M25. This growth was driven by higher sales in almost all of KLBF's business segments, except for the nutritional segment, which experienced a decrease of 3.26% YoY to IDR4 trillion in 6M25.We estimate KLBF's net profit to potentially grow 7.97% YoY to IDR3.5 trillion in FY25F. This estimate is based on potential revenue growth supported by KLBF's various initiatives. During 6M25, KLBF booked a net profit growth of 10.78% YoY to IDR2.03 trillion. This growth was driven by non-operating efficiency amidst increasing operating expenses in 6M25.The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the chemical, pharmaceutical, and traditional medicine industries continued its positive trend in 2Q25. Meanwhile, the PMI of this industry has remained in the expansive zone since 4Q23. We assess that this industry still has room to grow in the future, considering that this industry has a crucial position in the economy, with a contribution to GDP reaching IDR108.6 trillion in 2Q25.KLBF continues to innovate and collaborate to drive long-term growth. In the past year, KLBF has undertaken various initiatives, such as the inauguration of a radiopharmaceutical production plant, established a strategic partnership with GE HealthCare, established a joint venture with Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc., and continues to innovate by presenting products that are affordable and practical. We assess that the various initiatives undertaken have the potential to drive KLBF's business growth in the future.We give a Buy recommendation for KLBF with an estimated fair value of IDR1,640 per share or a potential upside of 38.98%. This recommendation is based on a calculation using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.47% and a Terminal Growth of 3.00%.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ASII: Resilient Growth Through Diversified Business Portfolio

30 Aug 2025 Company Update
ASII's revenue in 2Q25 increased by 0.9% YoY compared to 2Q24, primarily driven by growth in the Agribusiness segment, which rose by 34.6% YoY. During the 1H25 period, ASII's revenue grew by 1.8% YoY to Rp162.86 trillion. Net profit in 1H25 fell by 2.2% YoY to Rp 15.52 trillion, although this reflected an improvement compared to the performance in 1Q25, supported by net profit growth of 23.8% QoQ in 2Q25.The company's diversification strategy facilitated revenue growth despite challenges in the automotive and mining sectors. Although ASII's car sales declined this year due to weakened consumer purchasing power and increased competition, it successfully maintained a market share above 53%.In the mining sector, falling coal prices impacted the performance of the Heavy Equipment Manufacturing and Construction Equipment (HEMCE) segment. However, increased sales of heavy equipment and rising gold prices contributed positively to this segment's growth. In the Agribusiness segment, a boost in production and higher crude palm oil (CPO) prices led to increased contributions.We estimate ASII's revenue will grow moderately to Rp 335.99 trillion in FY25F (+1.5% YoY). The HEMCE segment remains the primary contributor, accounting for approximately 41.3% of ASII's total revenue. Net profit is projected to reach Rp33.18 trillion in FY25F (-2.6% YoY). Net profit growth is expected to come primarily from the Financial Services, Agribusiness, Infrastructure, and Information Technology segments.We are initiating coverage on ASII with a BUY recommendation and target price of Rp6,100 per share, using a DCF valuation approach (assuming WACC: 9.02% and TG: 1.9%). This target price reflects a PER25E valuation of 7.44x and a PBV25E of 0.90x, which are below the historical PE and PBV over the past five years of 8.6x and 0.94x, respectively.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ICBP : Innovation and Efficiency to Drive Performance in FY25

28 Aug 2025 Company Update
ICBP booked revenue growth of 1.73% YoY to IDR37.6 trillion in 6M25. This growth was driven by an increase in sales in the food seasoning segment of 6.5% YoY, the snack foods segment of 3.27% YoY, and the noodles segment of 2.53% YoY.On a quarterly basis, ICBP's revenue decreased by 13.73% QoQ to IDR17.42 trillion in 2Q25, in line with the decrease in sales across all business segments. We assess that this condition was caused by the normalization of public consumption after Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr. Going forward, we estimate that demand can potentially improve in 2H25, especially in 4Q25, in line with the momentum of Christmas and New Year celebrations.ICBP's cost of goods sold increased by 6.64% YoY to IDR23.81 trillion in 6M25. We assess that this increase was mainly due to the increase in the average price of CPO in 6M25, considering that CPO is one of ICBP's raw materials in producing its products. This condition caused gross profit to decrease by 5.76% YoY to IDR13.79 trillion in 6M25.ICBP's net profit grew 41.81% YoY to IDR6.2 trillion in 6M25. This growth was driven by a decrease in financial expenses of 66.35% YoY to IDR1.29 trillion in 6M25 due to a decrease in foreign exchange losses from financing activities to IDR227 billion in 6M25 (vs. IDR2.75 trillion in 6M24).We estimate that ICBP's net profit has the potential to grow 13.31% YoY to IDR10.36 trillion in FY25F. This estimate is based on the expectation of continued operational efficiency and a stable rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, which has the potential to decrease financial expenses.We maintain our Buy Recommendation for ICBP with a higher target price of IDR13,450 per share (previous IDR13,275). This recommendation is based on calculations using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.29% and a Terminal Growth of 2.95%.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ADMF: Sustains Dominance in Indonesia’s Multifinance

27 Aug 2025 Company Update
EBIT grew by 5.73% QoQ, while Net Income increased by 15.79% QoQ in 2Q25. ADMF recorded an improvement in operational performance with EBIT rising to IDR 855 billion in 2Q25 (vs. IDR 809 billion in 1Q25.Synergy Loans Lowered Financing Costs. Through funding and credit facilities sourced from its parent company and affiliated group syndications, ADMF managed to reduce its cost of financing by 14.17% YoY to IDR 1.58 trillion in 6M25 (vs. IDR 1.84 trillion in 6M24).Stable Asset Quality Amid Weakening Consumer Purchasing Power. Despite declining car and motorcycle sales and lower consumer confidence, which dropped 5.5% to 117.8 in 6M25 (vs. 123.3 in 6M24), ADMF maintained its asset quality.Motorcycle Segment as the Key Contributor. The motorcycle segment remains ADMF’s primary revenue driver, contributing 49.43% to total revenue in 6M25, with a GPM of 73.39%.Merger with MFIN as a Revenue Catalyst. Through this merger, ADMF will further strengthen its position in Indonesia’s automotive financing industry.Using the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) with a required return of 8.71% and a terminal growth rate of 1.50%, we estimate ADMF’s fair value at IDR 10,475 per share (implying an expected P/E of 7.23x and P/BV of 0.89x in FY25). Considering both the intrinsic valuation and relative valuation, which remains below the 5-year average P/BV of 0.93x, we assign a BUY rating on ADMF with an upside potential of 15.75%.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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