INTP: Driving Margin Growth Toward a Promising 2025

20 Nov 2024
INTP achieved revenue of IDR5.20 trillion in 3Q24 (+28.54% QoQ; +4.81% YoY), with cumulative revenue reaching IDR13.32 trillion until 9M24, driven by a 9.4% YoY increase in domestic cement sales volume. Gross profit margin improved to 34.35% in 3Q24 (vs 27.66% in 2Q24), supported by efficiency in energy and labor costs, despite higher finance costs due to the Grobogan Cement acquisition. INTP recorded a net profit of IDR621 billion in 3Q24 (+35.19% QoQ; +2.86% YoY), contributing to a cumulative net profit of IDR1.06 trillion until 9M24, showcasing resilience in a competitive market. Cement demand is expected to grow 1-2.5% in 2025, fueled by government initiatives like the 3 million houses program, the Capital City of the Archipelago (IKN) project, and property sector relaxations, boosting INTP's utilization ratio to 60%. Bulk cement continues to dominate, supported by national strategic projects (PSN) and rising demand from commercial developments such as warehouses, smelters, and housing in new growth areas, while bagged cement faces weaker demand due to low purchasing power. We give rating BUY for INTP with a target price of IDR8,100 (+18.80% upside), implying FY24F/FY25F EV/EBITDA of 8.66x/7.92x. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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AMRT : Continued Expansion Drives Financial Performance

13 Nov 2024
AMRT recorded revenue of IDR88.21 trillion in 9M24, growing 10.24% YoY. The revenue growth was driven by Food segment revenue, which grew 10.52% YoY to IDR62.37 trillion in 9M24 (vs. IDR56.43 trillion in 9M23), while Non-Food segment revenue grew 9.55% YoY to IDR25.85 trillion in 9M24 (vs. IDR23.59 trillion in 9M23). Better non-operating performance offsets higher operating expenses. AMRT's operating expenses increased by 11.98% YoY to IDR14.45 trillion in 9M24 (vs. IDR12.9 trillion in 9M23). Meanwhile, AMRT's non-operating expenses decreased by 79.61% YoY to IDR16 billion in 9M24 (vs. IDR80 billion in 9M23). This condition caused AMRT's net profit to grow 9.79% YoY to IDR2.48 trillion in 9M24 (vs. IDR2.26 trillion in 9M23). Alfagift as an alternative for consumers to shop online, contributed 6.6% to revenue in 9M24. Online sales generated from Alfagift in 9M24 grew by more than 45% YoY, signaling AMRT's efforts to increase revenue. The store network continues to increase. From January to September 2024, AMRT added 945 stores, consisting of 652 company-owned stores and 293 Franchise stores, bringing the total to 23,255 stores across Indonesia. We assess that these efforts can potentially improve AMRT's future financial performance. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.94% and Terminal Growth of 7.02%, we estimate AMRT's fair value at IDR3,650 per share (Expected PE at 32.03x and EV/EBITDA at 18.58x in FY24). We give AMRT a Buy rating with a potential upside of 15.89%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ANTM: Advances Amid Challenges: Profit from Gold, Efficiency from Capital Structure

12 Nov 2024
ANTM's revenue grew 39.7% YoY to IDR 43.2 trillion in 9M24, driven by gold sales, but profitability dropped as COGS rose sharply, leading to a decline in gross margin, EBIT, and net income. Commodity price fluctuations positively impact ANTM's revenue, particularly for gold and nickel, with gold prices rising 26.3% YTD to IDR1,539,000 per gram and nickel prices improving to USD15,706 per ton, contributing to a 39.7% YoY revenue growth in 9M24 ANTM reduced its debt-to-equity ratio from 28.2% in 2021 to 5.4% in Q3 2024, while also cutting interest expenses, reflecting a more efficient and conservative debt management strategy. ANTM’s revenue is projected to reach IDR51.8 trillion in FY24, driven by strong gold and nickel demand, with nickel benefiting from increased use in electric vehicle batteries, while concerns over a U.S. recession from a slowing labor market and high debt-to-GDP may push investors toward gold, boosting ANTM’s performance. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method, we estimate ANTM’s fair value at IDR 1,750 (14.12x expected P/E for FY24F). Considering ANTM’s fair value, we assign a buy rating with a potential upside of approximately 13.3% . By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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CTRA : Well Diversified Portfolio

06 Nov 2024
Net profit grew 11.99% yoy to IDR1.3 trillion in 9M24. Revenue rose 8% yoy to IDR7.1 trillion in 9M24. CTRA recorded marketing sales of IDR8.7 trillion in 9M24, equivalent to 78% of the FY24F marketing sales target. This achievement continues the upward trend in 2023, where CTRA recorded its highest marketing sales. A geographically diversified product portfolio is CTRA's advantage. As of 9M24, CTRA has 89 projects in 34 cities in Indonesia. Management targets marketing sales to reach IDR11.1 trillion (+9% yoy). We estimate that CTRA can record revenue growth of 9% yoy to IDR10.1 trillion and net profit of +10% yoy in FY24F. Using Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods, we estimate CTRA's fair value at 1570 (15.46x expected P/E FY24F and 35% discount to NAV). Considering CTRA's fair price, we give CTRA a buy rating with a potential upside of 31.54% By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ICBP: Revenue Growth Accompanied by Improved Non-Operational Performance

06 Nov 2024
ICBP recorded a revenue of IDR55.49 trillion in 9M24, growing 8.14% YoY. ICBP's revenue growth in 9M24 was in line with revenue growth across all operating segments, with the most significant increase in the Food Seasonings segment at 15.75% YoY. Better non-operating performance boosted net profit in 9M24. ICBP's net profit grew 202% QoQ or 15.57% YoY to Rp9.37 trillion in 9M24 (vs. Rp1.65 trillion in 2Q24; Rp8.11 trillion in 9M23). ICBP's net profit was in line with the improvement in its non-operating performance mainly due to the appreciation of Rupiah against US$, which enabled ICBP to reverse its loss on foreign exchange in 2Q24 to gain on foreign exchange in 3Q24. Potentially benefiting from the Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) program. The program can potentially benefit food and beverage issuers, especially those related to processed foods such as milk, seasonings, and their supporters. From January-September 2024, the segment's revenue growth reached 15.75% YoY to Rp3.3 trillion (vs. Rp2.85 trillion in January-September 2023) in line with the Makan Bergizi Gratis trial has been ongoing in several schools. The government plans to implement an excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in packaging in 2025. We assess that the impact of the excise policy will be insignificant to ICBP's sales performance, especially for the beverage segment, which only contributed around 2.29% to ICBP's total sales in 9M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.42% and Terminal Growth of 2.49%, we estimate ICBP's fair value at IDR13,340 per share (Expected PE at 15.29x and EV/EBITDA at 9.90x in FY24). Therefore, we give Hold rating on ICBP with a higher target and potential upside of 8.24%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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INDF : Consumer Branded Product Segment Drives Revenue in 9M24

06 Nov 2024
INDF's revenue grew 11.86% QoQ or 3.64% YoY to IDR86.9 trillion in 9M24. INDF's revenue growth in 9M24 was driven by the revenue of the Consumer Branded Product (CBP) segment, which rose 9.14% QoQ or 8.38% YoY to IDR55.57 trillion. However, three other segments, namely Bogasari, Agribusiness, and Distribution, experienced revenue decline in 9M24. All operating segments recorded operating profit growth. All three of INDF's operating segments could still record operating profit growth despite sales pressure in 9M24 (Table 3). Agribusiness segment recorded the most significant operating profit growth of 63.74% YoY to Rp1.88 trillion (vs. 1.15 trillion in 9M23). Rising Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices drove the Agribusiness segment's operating profit growth in 9M24. From January to September 2024, the average CPO price increased by 3.78% YoY to MYR4,006/ton. We assess that the Agribusiness segment has attractive prospects going forward, along with the new government's targets and policies that could potentially benefit this segment. INDF's net profit growth in 9M24 was driven by improved non-operating performance. During 9M24, INDF's net profit reached Rp12.29 trillion, growing 180% QoQ or 25.33% YoY. This growth was driven by the strengthening of the Rupiah against the US$ so that INDF could reverse the loss on foreign exchange in 2Q24 into profit on foreign exchange in 3Q24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.58% and Terminal Growth of 2.75%, we estimate INDF's fair value at IDR8,196 per share (Expected PE at 6.04x and EV/EBITDA at 3.90x in FY24). Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on INDF with a higher target and potential upside of 10.01%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BMRI: Strong Wholesale Business Positioning Amidst Tight Competition

04 Nov 2024
BMRI's net profit of 9M24 grew 7.6% yoy to 78% of our FY24 estimate. BMRI recorded a net profit of IDR42 trillion (+7.6% yoy) in 9M24. Wholesale Business remains the highest compared to peers. BMRI recorded a total credit of IDR1.6 trillion, increasing by 20.8% yoy in 9M24. Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew by 15% in 9M24. BMRI recorded CASA of IDR1.2 trillion (+15% yoy) in 9M24, with a CASA ratio of 73.8% (+12 bps) yoy. Non-Performing Loans (NPL) fell 36 bps yoy to 1.13 in 9M24. This achievement also continues the downward trend in NPL in the last three years (NPL of (2.72 in FY21, 1.92 in FY22, and 1.19 in FY23). BMRI's credit growth is targeted at 16%-18% in FY24F.Several factors, such as improving domestic consumption, the realization of private and government investment, a continuation of National Strategic Projects. BMRI's strong position in the wholesale segment allows BMRI to optimize these positive catalysts. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.52% and Terminal Growth of 3.39%, we estimate BMRI's fair value at 7,900 (12.37x expected P/E). Therefore, we still give BMRI a buy rating with a potential upside of 18.77%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BRIS: Innovation Maintains BRIS Profits Growth

04 Nov 2024
BRIS net profit grew 21.6% yoy to IDR5.1 trillion in 9M24. Net Margin Income of IDR12.6 trillion grew 3.5% yoy in 9M24. BRIS recorded financing growth of 8.09% yoy to IDR318.5 trillion in 9M24. Consumer financing growth (+16.27% yoy) supported this growth, which contributed 54.57% to BRIS total 9M24 financing. Tier 1 ROE increased significantly (+740 bps yoy) in 9M24. BRIS recorded an ROE of 17.59% in 9M24, higher than 16.85% in 9M23 and 16.88% in FY23. The gold business could be a booster for BRIS' performance. BRIS focuses on increasing its gold business in 2024.BRIS' gold business was able to record significant growth of +60.53% yoy to IDR 15.7 trillion in 9M24 with a contribution of 4.07% of total revenue. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.85% and Terminal Growth of 7.83%, we estimate the fair value of BRIS at 3,300 (23.69x expected P/E). Considering BRIS's fair price and relative valuation of around 2.4x 5-year Mean P/B, we give a buy rating for BRIS with a potential upside of 11.89%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ISAT: Strong EBITDA, Sustainable Growth amidst Tight Competition

01 Nov 2024
ISAT’s 3Q24 revenue reached IDR 13.84 trillion, marking an 8.20% YoY increase but a slight 2.16% decrease from the previous quarter. The cumulative 9M24 revenue of IDR 41.82 trillion represents an 11.61% YoY increase, covering 78% of the full-year forecast. Net profit grew by 40.50% YoY in 3Q24 but saw a 22.23% quarterly decline The Multimedia, Data Communication, and Internet (MIDI) segment grew significantly, with a 31.91% YoY increase. However, Cellular segment revenue, while up by 5.80% YoY, experienced a 2.60% QoQ decline. ISAT’s 3Q24 EBITDA stood at IDR 6.59 trillion (up 8.29% YoY), with a marginal decline in EBITDA margin to 47.62% ISAT added 3,000 BTS towers in 2024, improving reach to 2.1 million people and extending services to 370 new villages. Enhanced distribution with 2,000 rural distribution points and 2,500 new service points, along with the launch of the Digital Intelligence Operations Center (DIOC) for real-time network monitoring A stronger performance is expected in 4Q24, driven by anticipated data demand during the Pilkada, Christmas, and New Year seasons. An upcoming frequency auction could further enhance network capacity if ISAT secures additional frequencies The company retains a "BUY" rating with a target price of IDR 3,000, anticipating an 18.80% upside. Potential risks include price competition, regulatory shifts, and high-interest rates. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BSDE : Township, Has the Potential to Support BSDE Income Again

01 Nov 2024
Net profit grew 52.72% yoy to IDR2.7 trillion in 9M24. This growth is in line with the increase in revenue of 37.75% yoy to IDR10.1 trillion in 9M24. BSD City is designated as a National Strategic Project (PSN). This project is carried out in approximately 59.6 hectares, focusing on developing the education, biomedical, and digital regions, with an estimated investment value of Rp18.55 trillion. BSDE marketing sales achieved 72% of the 2024F marketing sales target. BSDE posted marketing sales of IDR6.84 trillion (+1% yoy) in 9M24. Net profit is projected to return above IDR2.9 trillion in FY24F. During the election period in 3M24, BSDE was able to record growth in marketing sales (+3% yoy) and revenue (+31% yoy). Net profit is projected to return above IDR 2.9 trillion in FY24F. Using discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate BSDE's fair value to be 1425 (8.64x expected P/E FY24F and 67% discount to NAV). Considering BSDE's fair price, we give BSDE a buy rating with a potential upside of 16.82%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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