FX Reserves: US$156.1 billion | 0.24% MoM |7.62% YoY Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.24% MoM to US$156.1 billion in January 2025 from US$155.7 billion in December 2024. This increase was influenced by several factors, including the government's global bond issuance, tax and service revenue realization, and Rupiah exchange rate stabilization policies implemented amid continued uncertainty in international financial markets. Furthermore, the current level of foreign exchange reserves remains high, equivalent to 6.7 months of imports or 6.5 months of government external debt payments. It is above the international adequacy standard of 3 months of imports. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Wall Street ditutup beragam di Kamis (6/2), dipengaruhi oleh lanjutan rilis kinerja keuangan 4Q24 dari perusahaan-perusahaan di AS. Mayoritas indeks di Eropa lanjutkan penguatan di Kamis (6/2) merespon keputusan BoE untuk memangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps menjadi 4.5% (6/2). Data ketenagakerjaan terbaru di AS membangun spekulasi bahwa the Fed akan less-hawkish dalam FOMC Maret 2025. Rally harga emas terhenti di Kamis (6/2) dengan koreksi 0.45% ke US$2,880/troy oz. Presiden AS, Donald Trump dikabarkan memerintahkan U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent untuk menurukan 10-Year Bond Yield di AS tanpa perlu pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed. Bagi Indonesia, disamping pengetatan likuiditas, kondisi ini berpotensi memicu rotasi ke obligasi jangka panjang, khususnya obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia karena berpotensi menawarkan return yang lebih menarik ketika dibandingkan dengan U.S. Treasury Bonds. IHSG masih akan bergerak di bawah level psikologis 7000 pada akhir pekan ini (7/2). Top picks (7/2) : MYOR, MAPI, AMRT, INDF, dan BUKA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

7 February 2025

S&P Global PMI Manufacturing Index: 51.2 S&P Global PMI Services Index: 52.9 ISM PMI Manufacturing Index: 50.9 ISM PMI Services Index: 52.8 The US manufacturing sector expanded in early 2025, driven by confidence in the Trump administration’s protectionist policies, including tax cuts and import tariffs. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 50.9, marking the first expansion after 26 months of contraction, with increased demand, production, and employment. Meanwhile, the services sector remained in expansion but slowed due to weaker new orders and extreme weather disruptions. The S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 52.9, and the ISM Services PMI declined to 52.8, as cold weather affected businesses and transportation, while interest rate expectations influenced financial services demand. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

GDP Growth Rate: 5.02% YoY GDP Growth Rate: 0.53% QoQ Full Year GDP Growth Rate 2024: 5.03% Indonesia's economic growth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), recorded only 5.02% YoY in Q4 2024, down from 5.04% YoY in Q4 2023 and below the government's 5.2% target set in the macroeconomic basic assumptions of the 2024 State Budget (APBN). The GDP value in Q4 2024 at current prices was IDR 5,674.9 trillion, and at constant prices was IDR 3,296.7 trillion. All expenditure-based components experienced growth. The element with the most extensive distribution was household consumption, contributing 54.04% and growing by 4.94% YoY. Additionally, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), expenditure for capital goods with a useful life of more than one year and not considered consumption goods, contributed 29.15% to total GDP and experienced growth of 5.03% YoY. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

06 February 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street lanjutkan penguatan di Rabu (6/2). Pemerintah AS memutuskan menunda implementasi tarif kepada Kanada dan Meksiko menyusul kesepakatan bilateral dengan keduanya. Sejumlah pelaku pasar berpandangan bahwa kebijakan tarif merupakan bentuk pendekatan negosiasi Pemerintah AS. Harga emas lanjutkan penguatan (+0.31%) ke US$2,884/troy oz (5/2). Harga crude melemah 2.15% ke US$71.14/barel (5/2) merepon kenaikan U.S. Crude oil Inventories ke 8.66 juta barel. Indonesia catat perbaikan realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi ke 5.02% yoy di 4Q24 dari 4.95% yoy di 3Q24. Pelaku pasar nampaknya memiliki ekspektasi lebih tinggi, mengingat data-data makro di Desember 2024 secara konsisten cenderung berada di atas ekspektasi. IHSG diperkirakan fluktuatif dalam rentang 6950-7150 untuk beberapa waktu kedepan. Top picks (6/2) : ANTM, INCO, TINS, PNBN, dan TLKM.

EXCL recorded a net profit of IDR502 billion in 4Q24 (+92.81% YoY; +22.07% QoQ), which was in line with our projection of 101.51% of the target. This solid net profit contributed to an improved net profit margin that reached 5.29% in 12M24 (vs 3.93% in 12M23). In addition, the company managed to keep operating expenses growing at the lower-single-digit level, with total operating expenses reaching Rp28.80 trillion in 12M24 (+3.08% YoY). This achievement was reflected in sales and marketing expenses that were successfully reduced by >10%, recording Rp505 billion in 4Q24 (-22.53% YoY; -1.03% QoQ). Overall, EXCL's EBITDA was recorded at IDR4.50 trillion in 4Q24 (+10.97% YoY; +5.64% QoQ), with EBITDA margin continuing to grow reaching 51.99% in 12M24 (vs 49.14% in 12M23). EXCL's data segment continues to show mid-high single-digit growth throughout 2024, with data consumption rising sharply at year-end, reaching 2,724 petabytes in 4Q24 (vs 2,194 PB in 3Q24). The increase in data consumption was driven by high demand due to the momentum of Christmas, New Year, and regional elections. In the broadband sector, EXCL is now the second largest ISP player in Indonesia, with >1 million fixed broadband subscribers. Although its contribution to revenue is still relatively small (<10%), this segment shows attractive growth potential in the future. We maintain a BUY rating on EXCL with a potential upside of 22.76% to IDR2,900 per share. Currently, we have not updated our valuation pending FY25 guidance from the management. However, we remain optimistic about EXCL's prospects, especially as the fixed broadband segment still has significant room for growth, supported by the acquisition of ~750k Link Net subscribers, as we have discussed in our previous report (please see report). We see this segment as having great potential going forward, both in fixed broadband and fixed mobile convergence. Downside risk: potential regulatory hurdles in the merger process and pressure from price competition. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On- .

Indeks-indeks Wall Street catat technical rebound di Selasa (4/2). AS memutuskan menunda implementasi tarif impor atas produk dari Kanada dan Meksiko selama 30 hari menyusul kesepakatan bilateral dengan Kanada dan Meksiko. Kanada sempat melakukan aksi balasan dengan menerapkan tarif impor baru atas produk asal AS. Aksi balasan juga dilakukan oleh Tiongkok yang menerapkan tarif impor sampai dengan 15% bagi produk batubara dan gas alam dan sampai dengan 10% bagi produk CPO, peralatan pertanian dan otomotif. Perkembangan di atas memperkuat pandangan sejumlah pelaku pasar bahwa kebijakan tarif merupakan salah satu alat negosiasi oleh Pemerintah AS. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperkirakan berada di 4.98% yoy di 4Q24 dari 4.95% yoy di 3Q24. Realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi di bawah 5% yoy tersebut kemungkinan berdampak negatif terhadap psikologis pasar, khususnya dalam jangka pendek. IHSG diperkirakan fluktuatif dalam rentang 6950-7150 untuk beberapa waktu kedepan. Top picks (5/2) : BRPT, MAIN, BRIS,INDF dan ADRO By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

5 February 2025