06 February 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street lanjutkan penguatan di Rabu (6/2). Pemerintah AS memutuskan menunda implementasi tarif kepada Kanada dan Meksiko menyusul kesepakatan bilateral dengan keduanya. Sejumlah pelaku pasar berpandangan bahwa kebijakan tarif merupakan bentuk pendekatan negosiasi Pemerintah AS. Harga emas lanjutkan penguatan (+0.31%) ke US$2,884/troy oz (5/2). Harga crude melemah 2.15% ke US$71.14/barel (5/2) merepon kenaikan U.S. Crude oil Inventories ke 8.66 juta barel. Indonesia catat perbaikan realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi ke 5.02% yoy di 4Q24 dari 4.95% yoy di 3Q24. Pelaku pasar nampaknya memiliki ekspektasi lebih tinggi, mengingat data-data makro di Desember 2024 secara konsisten cenderung berada di atas ekspektasi. IHSG diperkirakan fluktuatif dalam rentang 6950-7150 untuk beberapa waktu kedepan. Top picks (6/2) : ANTM, INCO, TINS, PNBN, dan TLKM.

EXCL recorded a net profit of IDR502 billion in 4Q24 (+92.81% YoY; +22.07% QoQ), which was in line with our projection of 101.51% of the target. This solid net profit contributed to an improved net profit margin that reached 5.29% in 12M24 (vs 3.93% in 12M23). In addition, the company managed to keep operating expenses growing at the lower-single-digit level, with total operating expenses reaching Rp28.80 trillion in 12M24 (+3.08% YoY). This achievement was reflected in sales and marketing expenses that were successfully reduced by >10%, recording Rp505 billion in 4Q24 (-22.53% YoY; -1.03% QoQ). Overall, EXCL's EBITDA was recorded at IDR4.50 trillion in 4Q24 (+10.97% YoY; +5.64% QoQ), with EBITDA margin continuing to grow reaching 51.99% in 12M24 (vs 49.14% in 12M23). EXCL's data segment continues to show mid-high single-digit growth throughout 2024, with data consumption rising sharply at year-end, reaching 2,724 petabytes in 4Q24 (vs 2,194 PB in 3Q24). The increase in data consumption was driven by high demand due to the momentum of Christmas, New Year, and regional elections. In the broadband sector, EXCL is now the second largest ISP player in Indonesia, with >1 million fixed broadband subscribers. Although its contribution to revenue is still relatively small (<10%), this segment shows attractive growth potential in the future. We maintain a BUY rating on EXCL with a potential upside of 22.76% to IDR2,900 per share. Currently, we have not updated our valuation pending FY25 guidance from the management. However, we remain optimistic about EXCL's prospects, especially as the fixed broadband segment still has significant room for growth, supported by the acquisition of ~750k Link Net subscribers, as we have discussed in our previous report (please see report). We see this segment as having great potential going forward, both in fixed broadband and fixed mobile convergence. Downside risk: potential regulatory hurdles in the merger process and pressure from price competition. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On- .

Indeks-indeks Wall Street catat technical rebound di Selasa (4/2). AS memutuskan menunda implementasi tarif impor atas produk dari Kanada dan Meksiko selama 30 hari menyusul kesepakatan bilateral dengan Kanada dan Meksiko. Kanada sempat melakukan aksi balasan dengan menerapkan tarif impor baru atas produk asal AS. Aksi balasan juga dilakukan oleh Tiongkok yang menerapkan tarif impor sampai dengan 15% bagi produk batubara dan gas alam dan sampai dengan 10% bagi produk CPO, peralatan pertanian dan otomotif. Perkembangan di atas memperkuat pandangan sejumlah pelaku pasar bahwa kebijakan tarif merupakan salah satu alat negosiasi oleh Pemerintah AS. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperkirakan berada di 4.98% yoy di 4Q24 dari 4.95% yoy di 3Q24. Realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi di bawah 5% yoy tersebut kemungkinan berdampak negatif terhadap psikologis pasar, khususnya dalam jangka pendek. IHSG diperkirakan fluktuatif dalam rentang 6950-7150 untuk beberapa waktu kedepan. Top picks (5/2) : BRPT, MAIN, BRIS,INDF dan ADRO By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

5 February 2025

Inflation: MoM:-0.76% YoY: 0.76% Core Inflation: MoM: 0.30% YoY: 2.36% Volatile Food: MoM: 2.95% YoY: 3.07% Administered Price : MoM:-7.38% YoY:-6.41% Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 0.76% YoY in January 2025 from 1.57% YoY in December 2024, recording its lowest level since 2000. This inflation rate was lower than the consensus forecast of 1.88%. Core inflation increased to 2.36% YoY in January 2025 from 2.26% YoY in December 2024. Commodities contributing to core inflation included jewelry, cooking oil, ground coffee, and rice with side dishes. Meanwhile, the volatile food group experienced inflation of 3.07% YoY in January 2025, up from 0.12% YoY in December 2024, primarily due to price increases in red chilies, bird's eye chilies, and fresh fish. Government-regulated prices experienced deflation of 6.41% YoY in January 2025 from inflation of 0.56% YoY in December 2024, with significant contributions from electricity tariffs, airfare, and railway fares. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

4 February 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street catatkan intraday rebound di Senin (3/2). Presiden AS, Donald Trump menunda implementasi tarif terhadap produk asal Meksiko sampai dengan 1 bulan kedepan. Perubahan kebijakan tersebut terjadi pasca pembicaraan bilateral antara Presiden AS dengan Presiden Meksiko, Claudia Sheinbaum. Kondisi di atas memperkuat pandangan bahwa kebijakan tarif terbaru yang diterapkan oleh AS merupakan bagian dari upaya negosiasi Pemerintah AS untuk mencapai tujuan utamanya. Harga Crude mendekati level US$70/barel (-0.25%), sebaliknya harga emas tembus US$2,800/troy oz (+0.50%) dipicu oleh peningkatan uncertainty risk di atas. Intraday rebound juga dicatatkan oleh IHSG dengan kembali ke atas level psikologis 7000 di penutupan Senin (3/2). Secara teknikal, IHSG menjaga peluang technical rebound di Selasa (4/2). Perkembangan terbaru kebijakan tarif oleh Pemerintah AS berpotensi memicu pembalikan (penguatan) terbatas nilai tukar Rupiah di Selasa (4/2). Pasar mengantisipasi data U.S. JOLTs Job Openings malam nanti (4/2) yang diperkirakan turun ke 7.88 juta di Desember 2024 dari 8.10 juta di November 2024. Top picks (4/2) : BBRI, BBNI, TLKM, TPIA, dan CTRA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

GDP Growth Rate 4Q24 Advance Estimated (qoq): 2.30% The Fed Interest Rate: 4.25-4.50% PCE Headline Inflation: 2.60% YoY Unemployment Rate: 4.10% US economic growth expanded by 2.30% QoQ in the first estimate for Q4 2024, down from 3.10% in Q3 2024, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and below market expectations of 2.6%. Nevertheless, the general inflation indicator Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose to 2.60% YoY in December 2024 from 2.40% YoY in November 2024, aligning with market expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in January 2025 is expected by market consensus to remain at 4.1%, with the release scheduled for this week (7/2). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

3 February 2025