INDF : Operational Efficiency Drives EBITDA Improvement

18 Jul 2024
INDF's revenue grew limited 0.81% YoY to IDR30.7 trillion in 3M24.  Despite the limited revenue growth, INDF recorded a Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) decline by 3.87% YoY to IDR19.5 trillion in 3M24. As a result, the gross profit grew significantly by 10.19% YoY to IDR11.2 trillion in 3M24. EBITDA grew significantly in line with efficient operating activities. INDF recorded EBITDA grew significantly by 25.18% YoY to Rp7.2 trillion in 3M24 from Rp5.7 trillion in 3M23. This growth aligned with a significant decrease in operating expenses by 9.42% YoY to Rp3.9 trillion in 3M24 from Rp4.4 trillion in 3M23. This condition shows that INDF can increase efficiency in its operating activities, reflected in significant EBITDA growth. Raw material prices flatten, INDF's profitability has the potential to stabilize. In producing its products, INDF utilizes critical raw materials such as CPO and Wheat, so its profitability depends on fluctuations in raw material prices. If CPO and Wheat prices are more stable in the future, INDF's profitability will potentially stabilize. The Company's subsidiaries have a global bond burden in USD. PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP), as a subsidiary of INDF restructured its debt to finance the acquisition of Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) by issuing four global bonds in USD. This action increased ICBP's total debt in FY21, and its interest expenses also increased significantly. ICBP's average sales growth post-PCL acquisition from 2020 to 2023 was 12.73%. Then, ICBP's average net profit margin (NPM) from 2020 to 2023 is 12.78%, so we believe ICBP's NPM will stabilize at a 2-digit level in the next few years. We estimate that this condition can cover high-interest expenses and minimize liquidity risk. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 8.05% and Terminal Growth of 2.75%, we estimate INDF's fair value at IDR7,842 per share (Expected PE at 6.48x and EV/EBITDA at 3.91x in FY24). We give INDF a Buy rating with potential upside 31.80%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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MBMA: Enhanced Earnings Momentum with an Integrated Nickel Supply Chain

01 Jul 2024
In 1Q24, MBMA's revenue fell 2.25% to US$444.23 mn, and net profit dropped 41.3% QoQ to US$3.67 million. This was due to significant declines in Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and Limonite Ore sales, impacted by adverse weather and equipment shortages. NPI production and sales also decreased, with an 8.6% QoQ drop in Average Selling Price (ASP) amid fluctuating nickel prices. High-Grade Nickel Matte (HGNM) sales increased 18.4% QoQ to US$196.94 mn, despite lower production and a 3.82% drop in ASP to US$13,673/tonne. The revenue growth was driven by reduced purchasing costs for Low-Grade Nickel Matte (LGNM) and a 7.30% QoQ decline in All-In-Sustaining Cost (AISC), leading to a significant rise in cash margin by 2,905% QoQ to US$511/tonne. MBMA is set for growth in 2024F with advancements in its High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) and Acid Iron Metal (AIM) projects. The AIM acid plant successfully delivered its first acid post-1Q24, with further developments expected by 2Q24 and 2H24. The PT ESG HPAL plant is targeting late 2024 for commissioning and subsequent nickel production. These projects are anticipated to enhance MBMA's market position, diversify and increase revenue, and support long-term growth. We assign a BUY rating to MBMA with a potential upside of 20.58% or IDR760 per share. This valuation is based on the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method with a WACC rate of 11.43% and terminal growth of 5%. The positive outlook is driven by growth projects, AIM plant production, and the planned HPAL plant commissioning. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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TOWR : Unlocking Hidden Revenue Streams

27 Jun 2024
TOWR recorded revenue up 6% YoY to IDR3.05 trillion in 1Q24, driven by the non-rental segment which jumped 7% YoY to IDR403 billion from FTTH services, with EBITDA of IDR2.4 trillion and net profit increasing 6% YoY to IDR797 billion. Despite stagnant tower and tenant growth, the company focuses on growth and development as the telecommunications industry shifts to the Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) segment, with demand increasing and connectivity reaching 13.534 million in 1Q24, up 22.40% YoY. Fiber to the Home (FTTH) demand jumped significantly, with 124,704 thousand home connections in 1Q24, growing 424.30% YoY, while Fiber to the Tower (FTTT) was supported by fiber optic length reaching 186,571 km in 1Q24, an increase of 14.90% YoY. We project TOWR's revenue in FY24 to be IDR3.4 trillion, reflecting a growth of 5.60% YoY. This growth is mainly driven by the non-rental segment Anticipating slower growth in the tower rental segment, TOWR focuses on expanding its fiber optic segment through the development of Fiber to the Tower (FTTT) and Fiber to the Home (FTTH), aiming to capitalize on the industry's shift towards Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) and projecting 7% YoY EBITDA growth to IDR10.44 trillion, supporting a net profit increase of IDR3.4 trillion in FY24. We assign a buy rating to TOWR with a potential upside of 26.20% or IDR860 per share. This valuation is based on Discounted Cash Flow with a WACC rate of 7.10% and terminal growth of 2.00%. TOWR has upside potential with an EV/EBITDA implication of 7.99x and EV/Tower of 2.48x for FY24F. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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MYOR : Strong Positioning in Global Market

26 Jun 2024
MYOR's export share amounted to 36.12% of total sales in 3M24. MYOR's export sales amounted to Rp3.16 trillion or contributed 36.12% of MYOR's total sales in 3M24. When compared to its peers, MYOR's export portion is the largest, which shows that it has a strong positioning in the global market and has advantages over national fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. Net sales grew a limited 3.65% YoY in 3M24. MYOR's sales were recorded at IDR8.76 trillion in 3M24 or grew a limited 3.65% YoY from IDR8.45 trillion in 3M23. The sales growth was supported by a significant increase in the packaged processed food segment of 10.18% YoY. Meanwhile, the packaged processed beverages segment grew limitedly by 1.10% YoY. MYOR recorded a net profit of Rp1.13 trillion, growing significantly by 53.31% YoY during 3M24. The profit growth was driven by interest income, fixed asset sales, and foreign exchange gains that grew significantly. As a result, profit before tax earned by MYOR grew significantly by 53.76% YoY to Rp1.40 trillion in 3M24 from Rp915 billion in 3M23. MYOR is facing some high raw material prices. Some of MYOR's main raw materials for producing its products are Cocoa and Coffee, most of which are obtained domestically. During 2024, the prices of both raw materials have increased. We assess if the increase in raw material prices increases continuously and cannot be adequately addressed by MYOR, it will potentially erode the company's profit margin in the future. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 7.21% and Terminal Growth of 4.55%, we estimate MYOR's fair value at IDR2,950 per share (Expected PE at 17.29x and EV/EBITDA at 10.59x in FY24). We give MYOR a Buy rating with potential upside of 25.53%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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CTRA : Well Diversified Portfolio

21 Jun 2024
>Net profit grew 17.1% yoy to IDR 413 billion in 3M24. Revenue rose 8.7% yoy to IDR 2.3 trillion in 3M24. >CTRA recorded marketing sales of IDR 3.3 trillion in 3M24, equivalent to 30% of the FY24F marketing sales target. >A geographically diversified product portfolio is CTRA's advantage. As of 3M24, CTRA has 88 projects in 34 cities in Indonesia. >Consistent growth of Recurring Income. The majority of CTRA's Recurring Income comes from shopping centers (37%) and health facilities (32%). >Management targets marketing sales to reach IDR 11.1 trillion (+9% yoy). CTRA's solid bottom line performance is accompanied by a stable debt condition (net gearing ratio –11.1%). >Using the Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods we estimate the fair value of CTRA at 1390 (13.44x expected P/E FY24F and 40% discount to NAV). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BSDE : Township, Has the Potential to Support BSDE Income Again

05 Jun 2024
Net profit grew 56.23% yoy to IDR 1.5 trillion in 3M24. This growth is in line with an increase in revenue of 31.25% to IDR 3.8 trillion in 3M24 compared to the increase in Cost of Goods Sold, which only increased 9.56% yoy to IDR 1.1 trillion. Sustainable and integrated product portfolio. After the COVID-19 pandemic,people increasingly want housing that supports a healthy and environmentally friendly lifestyle (Asia Pacific 2023, JLL). BSD City is designated as a National Strategic Project (PSN). This project is being carried out with an area of around 59.6 hectares. BSDE marketing sales exceeded the marketing sales target in FY23. BSDE posted marketing sales of IDR 9.5 trillion (+8% yoy), which reflects 108% of the FY23 marketing sales target (IDR 8.8 trillion). Net profit is projected to return above IDR 2 trillion in FY24F. During the election period 3M24, BSDE recorded growth in marketing sales (3% yoy) and revenue (31% yoy). Using the discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate the fair value of BSDE to be 1300 (8.64x expected P/E FY24F and 67% discount to NAV). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ICBP : Better Revenue Growth Potential

03 Jun 2024
ICBP recorded net revenue of IDR19.92 trillion during 3M24, a limited growth of 4.07%. Although ICBP’s revenue growth was limited, ICBP was able to record an Operating Profit Margin of 24.69% during 3M24. Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) revenue was overshadowed by high inflation rate in some of its operating regions. During 2023, PCL recorded revenue of IDR16.4 trillion, growing 10.92% YoY. This growth was lower than the sales growth in 2022, which reached 19.79% YoY. However, ICBP could still post a solid Operating Profit Margin in 2023 at 21.19%. Better than the Operating Profit Margin in 2022, which amounted to 20.65%. The acquisition of Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) in 2020 also contributed to ICBP’s revenue growth. Based on data from the World Instant Noodles Association (WINA), demand for instant noodles in PCL's operating regions tends to increase from 2019-2023 such as Nigeria (CAGR +9.19%), Egypt (CAGR +30.99%), Turkey (CAGR +29.08%), and Kenya (CAGR +21.67%). We believe it will positively impact for ICBP's revenue due to PCL's strong market share in the region. Profit margins have the potential to stabilize in line with the softening of raw material prices. If CPO and Wheat prices stabilize more in the future, it will potentially boost the company's profit margin stability. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.49% and Terminal Growth of 2%, we estimate ICBP’s fair value at IDR12,504 per share (Expected PE at 14.91x and EV/EBITDA at 9.28x in FY24). We give ICBP a Buy rating with a potential upside of 28.25%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ISAT : Transforming into a Tech Powerhouse

31 Mei 2024
ISAT's 1Q24 revenue rose 16% YoY (1% QoQ) to Rp13.84 trillion. ARPU increased 14% YoY (-3% QoQ) to Rp37.5k, subscribers grew 2% YoY (2% QoQ) to 100.80 thousand. 2G and 4G BTS expanded by 11% and 21% QoQ, respectively, outside Java, driving operating expenses up 15.50% YoY to Rp11.10 trillion. Nonetheless, EBITDA grew 22.10% YoY to Rp6.5 trillion, with a 47% margin, resulting in a net profit of IDR1.3 trillion (39% YoY, -8% QoQ). Management allocated ~Rp12 trillion for capex, focusing on expanding the network in eastern Indonesia. In 1Q24, ISAT added 32k new 4G BTS towers, totaling 184k. This efficient expansion enhances the 4G network, improving customer experience. Management targets an EBITDA margin of ~50%, with revenue growth expected to surpass industry averages. ISAT entered a $200 million partnership with Nvidia, cementing its cloud service position in Indonesia. It also partnered with Netcracker for IT infrastructure upgrades and collaborated with Mastercard and Cisco on cybersecurity. IT Services revenue is expected to reach 5-7% of total revenue from FY24 to FY29. We project ISAT to achieve revenue of IDR 54.63 trillion (+7% YoY) in FY24, mainly driven by a 6.70% CAGR (2024-2029) in the data segment and a 4% CAGR (2024-2029) in subscribers. Operating expenses are estimated to rise by 6% YoY to IDR 43.23 trillion due to expansion efforts, particularly outside Java. EBITDA is estimated at IDR 26.37 trillion with a margin of 48%. With these factors, we anticipate a net profit of IDR 5.19 trillion (+15.32% YoY) in FY24. Using Discounted Free Cash Flow with a Required Return of 9.00% and a terminal growth rate of 3.00% suggests a potential increase of 23.40%, or IDR12,200 per share (implying PBV at 2.04X and PE at 14.54x for FY24F). Therefore, a BUY rating is assigned for ISAT. Risks include: 1) ARPU competition in the low-price segment, 2) potential market share disruption from the EXCL-FREN merger, and 3) potential disruption to the FMC business from the presence of Starlink. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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SMRA: Potential for Post-Election Property Sales Recovery

20 Mei 2024
SMRA's net profit grew 62% yoy to IDR 441 billion in 3M24. This growth aligns with revenue growth to IDR 2.13 trillion in 3M24. The increase in net gearing ratio in 3M24 was relatively limited.This increase is not a significant problem, considering that SMRA's equity value is enormous, and the net gearing ratio still below 50%. SMRA is targeting total marketing sales in FY24F to reach IDR 5 trillion. This target is an increase of 11% compared to FY23F results. Property Vs. Interest Rates. During the high interest rates in 2023, mortgage financing still recorded growth, although limited. After the election is over, property sales have the potential to increase. During the election period, consumers tend to postpone purchasing a house; for example, in 2019, residential property sales experienced slower growth (+1.19% yoy) compared to 2018 growth of 13.95%yoy. Using the discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate the fair value of SMRA to be 705 (10.80x expected P/E FY24F and 50% discount to NAV. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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MTEL : Collocation Growth Driving Profitability

13 Mei 2024
MTEL's revenue surged by 7.33% YoY to IDR2.21 trillion, driven chiefly by the tower leasing segment's 5.40% YoY growth (+7.19% QoQ) to Rp1.84 trillion. The uptick in tower rental was propelled by a significant 16.56% YoY increase (+1.43% QoQ) in collocation, particularly fueled by non-Telkom customers during 1Q24. MTEL witnessed an 8.42% YoY rise in tenants during the same period. This robust performance translated into an EBITDA of Rp1.84 trillion, marking a substantial 39.99% YoY increase (+27.58% QoQ) and resulting in an EBITDA Margin of 83.5% in 1Q24 (vs. 81.5% in 1Q23), culminating in a net profit of Rp521 billion, reflecting a 3.98% YoY growth. MTEL, a leading presence in Southeast Asia with 38,135 towers in Indonesia, added 121 new towers in 1Q24, primarily outside Java, expecting a 7.15% CAGR (2024-2029) in tenant growth, supported by Rp5.6 trillion allocated for capex in 2024, signaling high single-digit revenue and EBITDA growth. We forecast FY24E revenue to IDR9.4 trillion in FY24, primarily fueled by the tower leasing segment's 11.49% CAGR (2024-2029) and the addition of 4k new tenants. Expansion by non-telecom companies will also boost growth in the collocation segment, despite increased depreciation costs. Using the Discounted Free Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 5.8% and Terminal Growth of 3% as terminal value. We assess that MTEL has an upside potential of 25.21% or IDR720 per share (Expected PE at 28x and EV/EBITDA at 10.16x in FY24F); thus, we give a Buy rating to MTEL. However, we need to consider the following risks: 1) Regulatory changes, 2) increased competition from telecommunication and tower operators, 3) economic downturn and rising interest rates may negatively affect MTEL's profitability and tower rental income and squeeze its profit margin.
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