MDKA: Improved 1H24 Results Boosted by Nickel Business

03 Okt 2024
MDKA reported 1H24 revenue of US$1.09bn, reflecting strong 110.3% YoY growth, primarily driven by a 162.6% surge in nickel sales under PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk (IDX: MBMA), reaching US$921mn. Despite lower ASP for Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and High-Grade Nickel Matte (HGNM), solid production and sales were supported by lower All-in-Sustaining Costs (AISC) and cash costs. MDKA achieved record production levels with 42.78kt of NPI and 25.44kt of HGNM, boosted by adding a third Rotary Kiln-Electric Furnace (RKEF) plant. Gold Revenue Up, Copper Sales Down: MDKA's gold sales volume in 1H24 was 51.63koz, down 4.24% YoY, but higher gold prices pushed ASP to US$2,182/oz, resulting in a 19.6% YoY increase in gold revenue to US$117.21mn. Conversely, Wetar’s copper sales dropped to 6.34kt with a lower ASP of US$3.92/lb, leading to a 20.5% YoY decline in revenue to US$54.47mn. Margins Limited by Rising Costs: Despite EBITDA growth to US$139.91mn (1H23: US$74.52mn), the EBITDA margin fell to 15.09% (1H23: 19.32%) due to increased NPI production costs and higher finance costs of US$53.4mn. This led to a US$12.5mn loss attributable to owners. FY2024 Outlook: We project MDKA’s net profit attributable to owners to reach US$63mn for FY24F, driven by the AIM and HPAL projects, and accelerated mine development at Wetar. Gold production is expected to reach 100koz—120koz, copper production at 14kt—16kt, while NPI production is revised to 80kt—85kt due to furnace relining in Sept-24. Valuation: Using the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, we estimate MDKA’s fair value at IDR3,030 (15.77x / 4.77x expected EV/EBITDA and P/BV). The upside is supported by key growth drivers, particularly the nickel business, including the AIM and HPAL projects, which are expected boost earnings over 2024 - 2025 significantly. In addition to the nickel business, gold and copper prices are projected to maintain their upward trajectory, supported by China’s stimulus efforts and a dovish Federal Reserve policy, which should create favorable market conditions for commodity prices. Key Risks: 1) A potential decline in metals demand; 2) Project execution delays; and 3) A hawkish shift by the Fed. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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CPIN : Good Performance Supports Bright Outlook in FY24

17 Sep 2024
CPIN's revenue amounted to IDR32.96 trillion in 6M24, growing 6.7% YoY from IDR30.89 trillion in 6M23. CPIN's revenue growth during the first half of 2024 was driven by significant growth in two of its business segments, Day-old Chick (DOC) by 40% YoY to IDR1 trillion (vs IDR722 billion in 6M23) and Processed Chicken by 34.45% YoY to IDR6 trillion (vs IDR4.48 trillion in 6M23). The increase in margin is in line with the decline in Corn and Soybean Meal (SBM) prices. The domestic corn price at the farmer level is IDR5,990/Kg, a significant 17.9% YTD decline from the 2024 starting price of IDR7,300/Kg. The decline in domestic corn prices is in line with the increasing harvest in the March-April 2024 period. Meanwhile, SBM prices stood at US$323/ton, down 14.84% YTD from the starting price of US$380/ton at the beginning of 2024. We assess that if the September-October harvest is abundant, then domestic corn prices have the potential to stabilize and thus improve the company's profitability. CPIN recorded net profit growth of 28.3% YoY to IDR1.76 trillion in 6M24. CPIN's net profit growth was driven by top-line growth as well as operational and non-operational gains. We assess that if CPIN can maintain and even improve its operational efficiency, it will potentially improve CPIN's bottom-line growth. CPIN has an extensive distribution network. CPIN has a retail network selling Processed Chick products such as Prima Freshmart, which can serve online transactions and physical stores in various locations, making it easily accessible to retail consumers. CPIN also collaborates with modern retailers to expand market penetration and reach various consumer segments. In addition, CPIN also has a distribution network for the international market in exporting Processed Chick products to multiple countries. During 6M24, CPIN's export sales grew significantly by 273% YoY to Rp90 billion (vs Rp24 billion in 6M23). Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 7.70% and Terminal Growth 3.86%, we estimate CPIN’s fair value at IDR5,850 per share (Expected PE at 26.75x and EV/EBITDA at 15.06x in FY24). We give CPIN a Buy rating with potential upside of 21.87%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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MTEL: FTS Progresses with Steady Growth and Innovation Toward a New Era of Connectivity

05 Sep 2024
MTEL booked revenue of IDR2.24 trillion in 2Q24, growing by +1.72% QoQ and +8.18% YoY, reflecting 46% of the 2024E target. The tower leasing segment remains the key driver, with revenue up by 7.20% YoY to IDR3.70 trillion in 1H24 MTEL's fiber segment experienced impressive growth of 104.90% YoY, reaching IDR175 billion, with the addition of 5,081 km of optical fiber in 1H24. EBITDA increased by 10.59% YoY to IDR1.85 trillion, with a margin of 82.67%. Net profit grew by 4.19% YoY to IDR543 billion. MTEL's introduction of Flying Tower Station (FTS) aims to enhance connectivity in remote areas, with commercialization expected by 2026. This technology is projected to be a new revenue stream between 2026-2031. MTEL's innovative, sustainable, and aesthetic tower designs in the IKN area, where 19 sites have been completed as of 1H24, with a target of 82 towers by year-end. We maintain our BUY recommendation for MTEL with a target price of IDR720 per share, reflecting a potential upside of 10.42%. This valuation is based on a blended valuation between DCF and Multiple Valuation with 5% terminal growth. This potential upside implies a PER and EV/EBITDA valuation of 24.70x and 9.80x, respectively, for FY24F. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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TLKM : ERP Pressure Hit TLKM’s EBITDA in 2Q24

29 Agu 2024
TLKM recorded revenue growth of 1.27% YoY in 2Q24, primarily driven by significant increases in the data, internet, and IT services segment (+7.17% YoY). The performance of the IndiHome segment experienced a sharp decline of -15.12% YoY, weighing down the company's total revenue. Early Retirement Program (ERP) and investment in GOTO contributed to a decline in EBITDA by -4.86% YoY and a reduction in net profit by -9.85% YoY. Telkomsel Lite saw subscriber growth of +4.30% YoY, despite a decline in ARPU due to targeting the low-cost market segment. Telkom introduced EZNet with competitive pricing in the fixed broadband market, expected to increase the number of subscribers but potentially pressuring ARPU and yield. We maintain our BUY recommendation for TLKM with a lower target price of IDR3,440 per share, reflecting a potential upside of 15.40%. This valuation is based on DCF with terminal growth of 2%. This upside potential implies a PER and EV/EBITDA valuation of 14.56x and 4.80x, respectively, for FY24F. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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JPFA: Corn Price Stability Drives JPFA’s Profitability

20 Agu 2024
JPFA recorded revenue growth of 14.46% YoY to IDR27.64 trillion in 6M24. JPFA's double-digit revenue growth was supported by a significant increase in revenue of the Poultry Breeding segment by 48.35% YoY to IDR1.60 trillion. We assess JPFA's performance in 2H24 has the potential to remain solid, along with relatively stable Live Bird and Day Old Chick prices. Corn and Soybean Meal (SBM) prices have decreased significantly. The domestic corn price at the farm gate stood at IDR5,780/kg, down significantly by 20.8% YTD from the starting price of IDR7,300/kg at the beginning of 2024. Meanwhile, SBM prices stood at US$302/ton, down 20.4% YTD from the starting price of US$380/ton at the beginning of 2024. We expect corn and SBM prices to stabilize in the future as the domestic corn harvest period in September-October 2024. JPFA's net profit grew 1,318% YoY to IDR1.59 trillion in 6M24. The significant growth in net profit was supported by cost efficiency and non-operational performance. We expect JPFA's net profit to grow 180% YoY to IDR2.64 trillion in FY24E, in line with revenue growth of 7.93% YoY to IDR55.23 trillion in FY24E. The Closed-House system at JPFA's poultry farms can improve the quality of poultry. Implementing the Closed-House system on all JPFA poultry farms can help reduce the risk of climate change and reduce the impact on the environment (odors and flies), therefore minimizing the potential for disease, fostering high productivity, and improving poultry quality. PT So Good Food (SGF) uses environmentally friendly fuel. SGF seeks to replace coal fuel with palm kernel shells in the boiler engine to reduce fly ash bottom ash (FABA) waste and emissions. We expect SGF's revenue to potentially increase in FY24, along with adding a new nugget processing line with a production capacity of up to 2.5 tons per hour. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 9.85% and Terminal Growth 4.01%, we estimate JPFA’s fair value at IDR1,990 per share (Expected PE at 6.31x and EV/EBITDA ad 4.88x in FY24). We give JPFA a Buy rating with potential upside of 25.13%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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INCO : Limited Improvements by Escalating Production Costs

01 Agu 2024
INCO reported 2Q24 revenue of $248.81 million, up 8.21% QoQ but down 15.88% YoY, slightly missing the 1H24 forecast of $478.75 million. Higher production costs raised cash costs to $9,989/tonne, though kept below $10,000/tonne. Despite an 8.92% QoQ drop in Nickel Matte production and a 3.69% decrease in sales, a 12.35% increase in the LME nickel price boosted the ASP to $14,214/tonne. Consequently, INCO's cash margin improved to $4,225/tonne, up from $3,194 in 1Q24. INCO's net profit was weakened by a derivative asset loss. Despite QoQ improvements due to a low base effect from 1Q24, EBITDA for 6M24 was $132.09 million, down from $276.93 million in 6M23, with the EBITDA margin dropping to 27.59% from 42.02%. A $6.12 million loss from the fair value of a derivative asset related to PT Kolaka Nickel Indonesia, driven by declining nickel prices, impacted net profit. As a result, net profit fell 82.06% YoY to $37.28 million, just 21.86% of the 2024 forecast. Despite challenges, management is optimistic about meeting production targets and maintaining healthy cash margins. INCO aims to produce 70,800 tonnes of nickel in matte and keep cash costs competitive. For 2024, the revenue forecast has been revised down to $976.98 million with an anticipated net profit of $117.03 million, reflecting expected continued pressure on nickel prices. The LME nickel price is projected to range between $17,500 and $18,000, with INCO's realization expected at around 78%. We maintain a BUY rating for INCO with a lower estimated fair value of IDR 4,370/share (implying 29.73x P/E and 1.02x P/BV) based on the DCF method. Despite ongoing weakness in ASP realization, we see potential for improved performance and lower cash costs through the remainder of 2024. Key downside risks include volatility in nickel prices, rising energy consumption and costs, and potential project delays. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BBCA : Credit Quality Remains Healthy Amidst Macroeconomic Conditions

29 Jul 2024
BBCA's net profit grew 11.1% yoy to IDR26.9 trillion in 6M24 (IDR61.53 trillion Annualized or 47% of our 2024F). Resilience in loan growth in the last five years. BBCA recorded loan growth of 15.5% yoy in 6M24. BBCA's credit quality remains healthy amidst macroeconomic conditions. BBCA's Current Account Savings Account (CASA) ratio is consistently above the industry. Lowest Cost of Fund (COF) compared to peers amidst high interest rates. Despite high interest rates, BBCA's cost of funds has remained stable in the last five years Strong customer relationships are BBCA's competitive advantage. The number of customers increased 6% yoy to 31.9 billion in 6M24, with transaction volume reaching 17 billion (+21% yoy) in 6M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.21% and Terminal Growth of 8.09%, we estimate the fair value of BBCA at 10,950 (24.71x expected P/E). So, we give BBCA a hold rating with a higher target and potential upside of 8.84%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritas YT : Phintraco Sekuritas TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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INDF : Operational Efficiency Drives EBITDA Improvement

18 Jul 2024
INDF's revenue grew limited 0.81% YoY to IDR30.7 trillion in 3M24.  Despite the limited revenue growth, INDF recorded a Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) decline by 3.87% YoY to IDR19.5 trillion in 3M24. As a result, the gross profit grew significantly by 10.19% YoY to IDR11.2 trillion in 3M24. EBITDA grew significantly in line with efficient operating activities. INDF recorded EBITDA grew significantly by 25.18% YoY to Rp7.2 trillion in 3M24 from Rp5.7 trillion in 3M23. This growth aligned with a significant decrease in operating expenses by 9.42% YoY to Rp3.9 trillion in 3M24 from Rp4.4 trillion in 3M23. This condition shows that INDF can increase efficiency in its operating activities, reflected in significant EBITDA growth. Raw material prices flatten, INDF's profitability has the potential to stabilize. In producing its products, INDF utilizes critical raw materials such as CPO and Wheat, so its profitability depends on fluctuations in raw material prices. If CPO and Wheat prices are more stable in the future, INDF's profitability will potentially stabilize. The Company's subsidiaries have a global bond burden in USD. PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP), as a subsidiary of INDF restructured its debt to finance the acquisition of Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) by issuing four global bonds in USD. This action increased ICBP's total debt in FY21, and its interest expenses also increased significantly. ICBP's average sales growth post-PCL acquisition from 2020 to 2023 was 12.73%. Then, ICBP's average net profit margin (NPM) from 2020 to 2023 is 12.78%, so we believe ICBP's NPM will stabilize at a 2-digit level in the next few years. We estimate that this condition can cover high-interest expenses and minimize liquidity risk. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 8.05% and Terminal Growth of 2.75%, we estimate INDF's fair value at IDR7,842 per share (Expected PE at 6.48x and EV/EBITDA at 3.91x in FY24). We give INDF a Buy rating with potential upside 31.80%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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MBMA: Enhanced Earnings Momentum with an Integrated Nickel Supply Chain

01 Jul 2024
In 1Q24, MBMA's revenue fell 2.25% to US$444.23 mn, and net profit dropped 41.3% QoQ to US$3.67 million. This was due to significant declines in Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and Limonite Ore sales, impacted by adverse weather and equipment shortages. NPI production and sales also decreased, with an 8.6% QoQ drop in Average Selling Price (ASP) amid fluctuating nickel prices. High-Grade Nickel Matte (HGNM) sales increased 18.4% QoQ to US$196.94 mn, despite lower production and a 3.82% drop in ASP to US$13,673/tonne. The revenue growth was driven by reduced purchasing costs for Low-Grade Nickel Matte (LGNM) and a 7.30% QoQ decline in All-In-Sustaining Cost (AISC), leading to a significant rise in cash margin by 2,905% QoQ to US$511/tonne. MBMA is set for growth in 2024F with advancements in its High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) and Acid Iron Metal (AIM) projects. The AIM acid plant successfully delivered its first acid post-1Q24, with further developments expected by 2Q24 and 2H24. The PT ESG HPAL plant is targeting late 2024 for commissioning and subsequent nickel production. These projects are anticipated to enhance MBMA's market position, diversify and increase revenue, and support long-term growth. We assign a BUY rating to MBMA with a potential upside of 20.58% or IDR760 per share. This valuation is based on the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method with a WACC rate of 11.43% and terminal growth of 5%. The positive outlook is driven by growth projects, AIM plant production, and the planned HPAL plant commissioning. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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TOWR : Unlocking Hidden Revenue Streams

27 Jun 2024
TOWR recorded revenue up 6% YoY to IDR3.05 trillion in 1Q24, driven by the non-rental segment which jumped 7% YoY to IDR403 billion from FTTH services, with EBITDA of IDR2.4 trillion and net profit increasing 6% YoY to IDR797 billion. Despite stagnant tower and tenant growth, the company focuses on growth and development as the telecommunications industry shifts to the Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) segment, with demand increasing and connectivity reaching 13.534 million in 1Q24, up 22.40% YoY. Fiber to the Home (FTTH) demand jumped significantly, with 124,704 thousand home connections in 1Q24, growing 424.30% YoY, while Fiber to the Tower (FTTT) was supported by fiber optic length reaching 186,571 km in 1Q24, an increase of 14.90% YoY. We project TOWR's revenue in FY24 to be IDR3.4 trillion, reflecting a growth of 5.60% YoY. This growth is mainly driven by the non-rental segment Anticipating slower growth in the tower rental segment, TOWR focuses on expanding its fiber optic segment through the development of Fiber to the Tower (FTTT) and Fiber to the Home (FTTH), aiming to capitalize on the industry's shift towards Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) and projecting 7% YoY EBITDA growth to IDR10.44 trillion, supporting a net profit increase of IDR3.4 trillion in FY24. We assign a buy rating to TOWR with a potential upside of 26.20% or IDR860 per share. This valuation is based on Discounted Cash Flow with a WACC rate of 7.10% and terminal growth of 2.00%. TOWR has upside potential with an EV/EBITDA implication of 7.99x and EV/Tower of 2.48x for FY24F. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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