ERAA : iPhone 16 Series Potentially Drives Revenue in FY25

16 Mei 2025
ERAA booked a decrease in revenue by 4.61% YoY to IDR15.88 trillion in 1Q25. This decrease was caused by the operator product segment sales, which decreased significantly by 28.23%% YoY to IDR396 billion in 1Q25, followed by the cellular phones and tablet segment, which decreased by 9.15% YoY to IDR12.34 trillion in 1Q25. We estimate ERAA's net profit to potentially increase by 9.59% YoY to IDR1.22 trillion in FY25F. This estimate is based on potential revenue growth of 9.04% YoY to IDR71.18 trillion in FY25F amidst a potential smartphone market that could drive future profitability. In 1Q25, ERAA's net profit decreased by 20.5% YoY to IDR212 billion. The decrease was in line with ERAA's lower revenue in 1Q25. The smartphone market in Indonesia grew by 15.5% YoY to nearly 40 million units in 2024. This growth is driven by the ultra-low-end smartphone segment (priced US$600) decreasing by 9.2% YoY in line with the iPhone 16 ban in 4Q24. The iPhone 16 series has been officially released in Indonesia since April 2025. We assess that ERAA will benefit from the entry of the iPhone 16 into Indonesia, considering that ERAA has iBox outlets to sell iPhone products. We give a Buy recommendation for ERAA with an estimated fair value of IDR555 per share or a potential upside of 11.45%. This recommendation is based on a calculation using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.60% and a Terminal Growth of 2.29%.
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INCO : Initial Ore Sales Offset by Lower Nickel Matte ASP

16 Mei 2025
INCO reported a net profit of US$21.80 million in 1Q25 (+228% QoQ; +252% YoY). This result was driven by gains from a fair value assessment of a call option related to the HPAL project (IGP Pomalaa). A positive contribution also came from the initial sale of nickel ore, which generated revenue of US$2.54 million in 1Q25. Total revenue declined to US$206.53 million (-14.60% QoQ; -10.18% YoY). The decrease was attributed to a 10.94% QoQ drop in nickel matte sales volume to 17,096 tons (vs. 19,196 tons in 4Q24), along with a lower average selling price (ASP), which fell to US$11,932/ton (-5.28% QoQ from US$12,597/ton in 4Q24). Cash costs improved in line with lower energy expenses. Despite the weaker nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) affecting the ASP, INCO successfully implemented significant cost-control measures in 1Q25, reducing its cash cost by 5.31% QoQ to US$8,501/ton (vs. US$8,978/ton in 4Q24). The reduction was primarily supported by lower HSFO and coal consumption. Focus on initiating nickel ore sales and diversifying downstream products. INCO is taking strategic steps to start nickel ore sales as part of its efforts to strengthen its commercial strategy. The company has received approval for the revised 2024 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) and plans to submit the 2025 RKAB. Using the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, with a required rate of return of 8.78% and a terminal growth rate of 1.46%, we estimate the fair value of INCO’s fair value at IDR 3,560 per share (implying 32.67x / 0.82x expected P/E and P/BV). This positive outlook is supported by improved cash cost efficiency and product diversification.
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PANI: PIK 2 Strategic Development Supports PANI’s Net Profit

15 Mei 2025
PANI's revenue decrease 4% YoY to Rp612 billion in 3M25. This decline was in line with the decrease in other revenues by 69% YoY to Rp6.9 billion in 3M25 due to the high base effect in 3M24. Optimal landbank with maintained debt structure. PANI has a total land area of 1,845 ha in 3M25, an increase of 238 ha compared to 1,607 ha in FY23. PIK 2 has become a prestigious residential, business, entertainment, and tourism destination. The PIK 2 area, which is close to the sea and the facilities that have been built are a special attraction for consumers, including large companies, to join, invest, and explore business opportunities. PANI properties are supported by complete infrastructure and facilities. PIK 2 is located in a strategic area, close to the outer and inner ring road toll road, making it easy to access Jakarta and South Tangerang, and only 7 minutes to SoekarnoHatta Airport. We give PANI a buy rating. Its estimated fair value is 15,200, and its potential upside is 33%. The fair value is obtained using the Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods. It reflects 169x expected P/E FY25F and a 70% discount to NAV. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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TLKM: Soft Start, Brighter Ahead

08 Mei 2025
TLKM reported 1Q25 revenue of IDR 36.64 trillion (-2.9% QoQ; -2.1% YoY), in line with expectations (Phintas: 23.72%, Cons: 23.60%). The decline was driven by weaker performance in Data, Internet & IT Services, which contracted -5.42% YoY. However, the IndiHome segment grew by +0.41% QoQ (+3.45% YoY) to IDR 6.66 trillion. Operationally, administrative expenses rose by 18.83% YoY due to seasonal effects, while marketing expenses decreased by -40.90% QoQ, reflecting cost efficiency. TLKM recorded an EBITDA of IDR 18.23 trillion (-0.92% QoQ; -6.12% YoY) with a margin of 49.76%, and net profit reached IDR 5.81 trillion (-2.75% QoQ; -4.01% YoY). Telkomsel’s deliberate churn elimination led to a 0.9% YoY decline in subscribers to 158.8 million, though postpaid subscribers increased by 6.2% YoY. ARPU declined to IDR 42.4k, but data consumption grew 5.3% QoQ (+19.78% YoY). IndiHome added 230K new net subscribers, with convergence penetration at 55%. BTS units increased to 278K, including 1,910 5G BTS (+169.1% YoY). Commitment to improving market conditions through starter pack price adjustments is expected to restore market rationality and drive long-term profitability. While this strategy should gradually boost ARPU, it may result in a slight decline in subscriber numbers. As a result, we forecast modest revenue growth of 1.68% YoY for FY25E and 2.46% YoY for FY26F. Despite the flat revenue growth, we expect TLKM’s EBITDA margin to improve, reaching 49.87% in FY25E and 50.37% in FY26F. The company's ability to sustain profitability amid a challenging environment underscores its operational efficiency. With a combination of steady revenue and high interest expenses, we estimate TLKM’s net profit at IDR 22.41 trillion for FY25E, with a net profit margin of 14.69%, highlighting the company’s resilience and capacity for stable financial performance. We maintain a BUY rating with a new target price of IDR 2,950, implying a forward EV/EBITDA of 4.55×/4.33× for FY25F/FY26F. TLKM’s stock trades at a 22.7% discount to the 5-year average, supported by a buyback plan and dividends. Downside risks include ARPU pressure, competition, and weakened purchasing power. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research –Disclaimer On– Contact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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BBNI : Moderation in Term Deposit Rate Potentially Becomes BBNI’s Catalyst in FY25F

29 Apr 2025
BBNI’s net profit grew 1% YoY (4.4% QoQ) to IDR 5.4 trillion in 3M25. BBNI’s net interest income rose 4.7% YoY but declined 10.9% QoQ in 3M25. The increase in interest expenses, which outpaced interest income, pressured BBNI’s interest margin (interest income +5.3% YoY vs. interest expense +6.2% YoY in 3M25). Moderation of Term Deposits (TD) rate and growth of the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) can potentially optimize BBNI's performance in FY25F. BBNI’s TD rates have continued to rise in line with increases in the benchmark interest rate. BBNI’s TD rates for 2022–2024 were (3.32%, 4.65%, and 4.82%).Thus, we believe that with a decline in the BI rate, BBNI’s TD rate could also moderate by around ±1% in 2025F With BBNI's 3M35 performance slightly below our expectations, we lower our FY25F projection. However, we maintain our BUY rating for BBNI with a lower estimated fair value of 5.325 (8.29x expected P/E) and a potential upside of 27.09%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119055611 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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ACES : Net Profit Growth Driven by Solid Revenue in FY24

25 Apr 2025
ACES booked revenue growth of 12.75% YoY to IDR8.58 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by a significant increase in lifestyle product sales by 17.99% YoY to IDR3.71 trillion, followed by home improvement product sales up by 9.67% YoY to IDR4.39 trillion in FY24. Meanwhile, toy product sales increased 3.34% YoY to IDR315 billion, and consignment sales increased 4.22% YoY to IDR156 billion in FY24. ACES booked Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) of 8.6% YoY in March 2025. This marked a recovery from the February 2025 SSSG realization, which contracted by 6.6% YoY. The improvement in SSSG in March 2025 was supported by increased demand during the Ramadhan period and ahead of Eid al-Fitr. ACES booked a net profit growth of 15.82% YoY to IDR885 billion in FY24. The growth in net profit was supported by ACES's double-digit revenue growth in FY24, which was able to cover the increase in operating expenses. Expansion will continue in 2025. The positive performance in FY24 strengthens ACES's commitment to expanding to more areas in Indonesia, both physically and through its omnichannel. ACES plans to expand to the easternmost region of Indonesia, with a target of opening 25-30 new stores in 2025. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.38% and Terminal Growth of 2.5%, we estimate ACES's fair value at IDR 685 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on ACES with a lower target and potential upside of 37.00%.
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BBCA : Loan Growth is Accompanied by Maintained Asset Quality

25 Apr 2025
BBCA's net profit grew 9.8% YoY to IDR14.1 trillion in 3M25 (IDR56.6 trillion Annualized or 25% of our 2025F). A maintained Term Deposit Rate accompanied BBCA's Third Party Fund growth. Third Party Funds (TPF) grew 6.5% YoY to IDR1.2 trillion in 3M25. Increased third-party funds (TPF) also accompanied this credit growth. BBCA's TPF grew 2.9% YoY to IDR1.134 trillion in FY24, with the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) growing 4.4% YoY. BBCA's Term Deposit Rate fell 90 bps YoY to 3.15%. Quarterly, BBCA's TD rate also recorded a decline of 20 bps (3.13% in 4Q24). BBCA's loan growth grew 12.6% YoY to IDR941 trillion in 3M25 (vs industry 9.16%).Corporate loan supported this growth, which rose 13.9% YoY, followed by Consumer loan (+11.3% YoY). BBCA's asset quality remains healthy amid macroeconomic fluctuations. Gross NPL is above BBCA's gross NPL in the last four years (2%). Strong customer relationships are BBCA's competitive advantage. Customers increased by 7% YoY to 33 million in 3M25, with BCA's mobile banking transaction volume reaching 9.9 billion transactions (+19% YoY) in 3M25. We maintain our BUY recommendation for BBCA shares, with an estimated fair value of Rp11,400. This assessment is based on the Dividend Discount Model and relative valuation analysis, which is still below 4.37x average +1 St. Dev P/B 5 years. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ANTM : Gold Drives ANTM’s FY24 Growth, Dominating Key Drivers

24 Apr 2025
ANTM reported revenue of IDR25.99 trillion in 4Q24 (+29.88% QoQ; +156.09% YoY), bringing FY24 revenue to IDR69.19 trillion, up 68.57% YoY (vs. FY23: IDR41.05 trillion). This growth was mainly driven by robust growth in gold revenue, which jumped 120.34% YoY to IDR57.56 trillion (vs. FY23: IDR26.12 trillion). Gold sales surpassed management's guidance by 17.22% in FY24 (vs. 37.35 tons / 1,200,959 troy ounces). By the end of 2024, gold sales had reached 43.78 tons (1,407,431 troy ounces). ANTM's gold selling price significantly increased, climbing to IDR1.52 million per gram on December 25, 2024 (-1.25% MoM; +25.46% YoY). Despite the higher price, sales growth remained strong and rose by 67.5% YoY (vs. FY23: 26.13 tons / 840,067 troy ounces). This advancement was driven by increased domestic demand amid geopolitical tensions, which the company capitalized on by ramping up production and strengthening reserves through an annual gold purchase of 30 tons from Freeport's smelter starting in 2025. The nickel segment is expected to be optimized in FY25. Following the approval of the Work Plan and Budget for 2024, management aims to increase nickel ore production to 16.9 million wmt (+102.29% from 8.35 million wmt in FY24). Overcoming these regulatory challenges is anticipated to significantly enhance operational capacity, facilitating recovery in nickel-related revenue streams. Using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation method, with a required rate of return of 8.97% and a terminal growth rate of 1.15%, we estimate ANTM’s fair value at IDR2,400 per share (implying 13.37x / 1.58x expected P/E and P/BV). This positive outlook is fueled by rising domestic demand, increasing gold prices, and improved efficiency in reducing ferronickel production cash costs.
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MIDI : Potential Efficiency From Lawson Divestment

22 Apr 2025
MIDI booked revenue growth of 14.62% YoY to IDR19.88 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by a 22.71% YoY increase in sales of the fresh food segment to IDR2.96 trillion in FY24, followed by the non-food segment up 17% YoY to IDR5.25 trillion and the food segment up 11.71% YoY to IDR11.66 trillion in FY24. Operating expenses pressured net profit in FY24. MIDI booked a 7.89% YoY decrease in net profit to IDR476 billion in FY24. The decrease was due to an increase in selling and distribution expenses by 14.17% YoY to IDR3.27 trillion in FY24 and general and administrative expenses by 16.65% YoY to IDR456 billion. Continued expansion supported revenue growth in FY24. Alfamidi stores increased by 190 stores to 2,368 stores, and Alfamidi Super stores increased by 16 stores to 62 stores in FY24. Meanwhile, MIDI closed 3 Midi Fresh stores in FY24, bringing the number of MIDI Fresh stores to 5 stores. MIDI divested Lawson to AMRT. This decision is based on considerations for implementing a more effective and efficient business strategy. With this transaction, MIDI is expected to improve and enhance its financial performance and focus more on its core business in the minimarket and supermarket segment. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.58% and Terminal Growth of 3.88%, we estimate MIDI's fair value at IDR428 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on MIDI with a lower target and potential upside of 25.15%.
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AMRT : Strengthen Ready-to-Eat (RTE) Products Through Lawson Acquisition

17 Apr 2025
AMRT booked revenue growth of 10.55% YoY to IDR118.23 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by a 10.08% YoY increase in sales of the food segment to IDR83.28 trillion and an 11.7% YoY increase in the non-food segment to IDR34.95 trillion in FY24. AMRT's net profit grew 20.71% QoQ in 4Q24. The growth was driven by higher revenue and operating cost efficiency in 4Q24. This operating efficiency was mainly due to the decrease in selling and distribution expenses by 5.89% QoQ to IDR4.72 trillion in 4Q24, which caused operating expenses to decrease by 2.6% QoQ to IDR5 trillion in 4Q24. Continued expansion supported FY24 performance. AMRT's stores increased by 967 stores to 23,277 stores in FY24. In 2024, AMRT added 3 new distribution centers to improve supply chain efficiency and plans to add 2 new distribution centers in 2025. AMRT acquired all the shares of PT Lancar Wiguna Sejahtera (LWS), which is owned by MIDI. The acquisition is expected to expand and strengthen AMRT's Ready-to-Eat (RTE) food product category, as LWS currently operates 374 Lawson stores that sell mainly RTE products to consumers. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 6.85% and Terminal Growth of 3.09%, we estimate AMRT's fair value at IDR2,570 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on AMRT with a lower target and potential upside of 31.46%.
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