Indonesia Inflation Januari 2025

04 Feb 2025
Inflation: MoM:-0.76% YoY: 0.76% Core Inflation: MoM: 0.30% YoY: 2.36% Volatile Food: MoM: 2.95% YoY: 3.07% Administered Price : MoM:-7.38% YoY:-6.41% Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 0.76% YoY in January 2025 from 1.57% YoY in December 2024, recording its lowest level since 2000. This inflation rate was lower than the consensus forecast of 1.88%. Core inflation increased to 2.36% YoY in January 2025 from 2.26% YoY in December 2024. Commodities contributing to core inflation included jewelry, cooking oil, ground coffee, and rice with side dishes. Meanwhile, the volatile food group experienced inflation of 3.07% YoY in January 2025, up from 0.12% YoY in December 2024, primarily due to price increases in red chilies, bird's eye chilies, and fresh fish. Government-regulated prices experienced deflation of 6.41% YoY in January 2025 from inflation of 0.56% YoY in December 2024, with significant contributions from electricity tariffs, airfare, and railway fares. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
Baca Laporan

Peluang rebound terbatas Rupiah di Selasa (4/2)

04 Feb 2025
Indeks-indeks Wall Street catatkan intraday rebound di Senin (3/2). Presiden AS, Donald Trump menunda implementasi tarif terhadap produk asal Meksiko sampai dengan 1 bulan kedepan. Perubahan kebijakan tersebut terjadi pasca pembicaraan bilateral antara Presiden AS dengan Presiden Meksiko, Claudia Sheinbaum. Kondisi di atas memperkuat pandangan bahwa kebijakan tarif terbaru yang diterapkan oleh AS merupakan bagian dari upaya negosiasi Pemerintah AS untuk mencapai tujuan utamanya. Harga Crude mendekati level US$70/barel (-0.25%), sebaliknya harga emas tembus US$2,800/troy oz (+0.50%) dipicu oleh peningkatan uncertainty risk di atas. Intraday rebound juga dicatatkan oleh IHSG dengan kembali ke atas level psikologis 7000 di penutupan Senin (3/2). Secara teknikal, IHSG menjaga peluang technical rebound di Selasa (4/2). Perkembangan terbaru kebijakan tarif oleh Pemerintah AS berpotensi memicu pembalikan (penguatan) terbatas nilai tukar Rupiah di Selasa (4/2). Pasar mengantisipasi data U.S. JOLTs Job Openings malam nanti (4/2) yang diperkirakan turun ke 7.88 juta di Desember 2024 dari 8.10 juta di November 2024. Top picks (4/2) : BBRI, BBNI, TLKM, TPIA, dan CTRA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -
Baca Laporan

US Economy in Desember 2024

03 Feb 2025
GDP Growth Rate 4Q24 Advance Estimated (qoq): 2.30% The Fed Interest Rate: 4.25-4.50% PCE Headline Inflation: 2.60% YoY Unemployment Rate: 4.10% US economic growth expanded by 2.30% QoQ in the first estimate for Q4 2024, down from 3.10% in Q3 2024, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and below market expectations of 2.6%. Nevertheless, the general inflation indicator Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose to 2.60% YoY in December 2024 from 2.40% YoY in November 2024, aligning with market expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in January 2025 is expected by market consensus to remain at 4.1%, with the release scheduled for this week (7/2). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
Baca Laporan

IHSG akan ditopang data-data domestik yang relatif solid

03 Feb 2025
Wall Street melemah di Jumat (31/1) mengantisipasi penerapan kebijakan tarif baru kepada sejumlah mitra dagang AS pada 1 Februari 2025. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) di Indonesia tumbuh hingga 33.3% yoy di 4Q24, jauh lebih tinggi dari realisasi 3Q24 di 18.60% yoy. Realisasi tersebut mengindikasikan optimisme investor terhadap 100 hari Prabowo-Gibran dan memvalidasi kondisi positif indikator-indikator makro lain di Desember 2024. Inflasi total diperkirakan naik ke 1.88% yoy di Januari 2025 dari 1.57% yoy di Desember 2024, memperkuat keyakinan bahwa kondisi ekonomi yang lebih baik di Desember 2024 masih akan berlanjut sampai dengan 1Q25. IHSG berpotensi fluktuatif di awal pekan, sebelum kembali ke minor bullish trend dengan resistance terdekat di 7150-7200 pada pekan ini. Top picks : ESSA, INKP, INDF, ELSA, SRTG dan BTPS. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -
Baca Laporan

The Fed Interest Rate January 2025

31 Jan 2025
FOMC January 30th 2025: 4.25-4.50% (unchanged)
Previous: 4.25-4.50% The Fed decided to maintain interest rate within the range of 4.25–4.50% on January 30, 2025. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the U.S. central bank required a temporary pause to further observe inflation trends following a prior rate reduction at the end of the previous year (19/12). This policy was adopted due to the continued strength of the U.S. economy and the diminished restrictive impact of interest rates on economic activity compared to earlier periods. Additionally, stable labor market conditions allowed Fed policymakers to delay adjustments to the benchmark rate until more concrete evidence of a sustained decline in inflation materializes. As measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, inflation data stood at 2.40% year-over-year (YoY) in November 2024, while market consensus projections anticipated an increase to 2.60% YoY in December 2024. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
Baca Laporan

Pasar antisipasi data ekonomi dan kinerja keuangan

31 Jan 2025
Mayoritas indeks di Wall Street catatkan rebound pada perdagangan Kamis (30/1). Presiden AS, Donald Trump mengumumkan rencana implementasi tarif impor atas produk dari Kanada dan Mexico sebesar 25% apabila keduanya tidak menghentikan ekspor fetynol ke AS. ECB pangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps ke 2.75% di Kamis (30/1). Inflasi di Euro Area kemungkinan turun signifikan di Januari 2024 menyusul pullback signifikan harga minyak dan gas di akhir Januari 2024. Keputusan ECB tersebut dinilai turut menjustifikasi keputusan RDG BI untuk memangkas sukubunga acuan. Akan tetapi, kebijakan ini berpotensi memicu penguatan USD Index yang berdampak negatif pada nilai tukar Rupiah dalam jangka pendek. BBRI dan BMRI termasuk yang dijadwalkan rilis kinerja keuangan di sisa pekan ini sampai dengan pekan depan. Perhatikan pivot area 7050-7075 di perdagangan Jumat (31/1). Top picks (31/1) : LSIP, TAPG, SCMA, EMTK, dan MAPI. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -
Baca Laporan