Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Kamis (28/5). Penguatan indeks dipicu saham sektor teknologi dan harapan gencatan senjata AS-Iran. Indeks PCE prices inti tercatat di level 3.3% YoY pada April 2026 (28/5). PDB riil AS sedikit meningkat pada tingkat tahunan sebesar 1.6% YoY di 1Q26 (28/5). Rebalancing indeks MSCI Mei 2026 akan efektif berlaku pada penutupan perdagangan 29 Mei 2026. Harga minyak turun pada hari Kamis (28/5), menghapus kenaikan sebelumnya. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 3  bps ke level 4.453% (28/5). Harga emas spot melemah 0.6% ke level US$4,428/troy oz (28/5). Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi bergerak di kisaran 6000-6200. Top picks (29/5): CPIN, TLKM, MAIN, MYOR dan ERAA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Bursa Wall Street libur Memorial Day pada Senin (25/5). Indeks di bursa Eropa ditutup menguat seiring meningkatnya harapan akan kesepakatan antara AS dan Iran (25/5). Indeks utama Jepang mencapai rekor tertinggi (25/5). Pemerintah akan menerbitkan surat utang negara berdenominasi valuta asing senilai ekuivalen US$3.4 miliar. Uji coba implementasi PP No.21/2026 tentang kewajiban retensi DHE SDA akan dimulai pada awal Juni 2026 Harga minyak mentah turun sekitar 7% (25/5). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 2  bps ke level 4.558% (22/5). Harga emas spot menguat 1.1% di level US$4,559/troy oz (25/5). IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran 6100-6300. Top picks (26/5): BBCA, ADMR, ASII, PGAS dan EXCL. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Kamis (21/5). Penguatan indeks dipicu laporan bahwa draf akhir perjanjian perdamaian AS-Iran telah tercapai. Yield U.S. Treasury jangka panjang dan harga minyak turun. Fitch menyatakan bahwa peringkat bank Himbara berada pada level yang sama dengan peringkat Indonesia di BBB/Negatif. Menurut S&P Global Ratings, rencana Indonesia mengendalikan ekspor komoditas secara terpusat berpotensi merugikan ekspor. Harga minyak mentah koreksi lebih dari 2% (21/5). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun kurang dari 1 bps ke level 4.564% (21/5). Harga emas spot turun 1% di level US$4,500/troy oz (21/5). Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi menguji level psikologis di 6000, dengan support kuat berikutnya di level 5882. Top picks (22/5): HMSP, INDF, TINS, WIIM dan CPIN. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

May 29th, 2026

May 26th, 2026

May 25th, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Jumat (22/5). Faktor positif berasal dari indikasi kemajuan dalam upaya perdamaian untuk akhiri konflik Timur Tengah. Kevin Warsh telah dilantik sebagai Chairman the Fed pada Jumat (22/5). Perkembangan seputar kesepakatan AS-Iran dan dampaknya terhadap harga minyak, masih akan berpengaruh terhadap pasar global. Bursa AS akan libur Memorial Day pada hari Senin (25/5). Data ekonomi AS pekan ini diantaranya PCE price index, durable goods orders, dan estimasi ke-2 PDB 1Q26. Rebalancing MSCI Mei 2026 berlaku efektif pada penutupan perdagangan 29 Mei 2026. IHSG diperkirakan bergerak mixed pada kisaran 6000-6250 di pekan ini. Top picks pekan ini: UNVR, BBRI, ESSA, WIFI, MBMA dan ADRO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Jumat (15/5). Pelemahan indeks dipicu oleh profit taking pada saham-saham sektor teknologi serta kenaikan yield obligasi pemerintah AS. Pertemuan antara Presiden Trump dan Presiden Xi berakhir tanpa adanya kesepakatan besar. Dari AS, investor akan mencermati laporan keuangan Nvidia serta FOMC minutes. Bank Sentral Tiongkok diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga pinjaman utama tetap. RDG Bank Indonesia diperkirakan akan mempertahankan BI Rate tetap di 4.75% (20/5). Dijadwalkan akan dirilis data pertumbuhan kredit (20/5), transaksi berjalan 1Q26 (22/5) dan M2 Money Supply (22/5). Diperkirakan jika IHSG breakdown level 6700, berpotensi menguji level 6500-6550 pada pekan ini. Top picks pekan ini: CPIN, PGEO, JPFA, BTPS, SUPA dan BULL. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Jumat (8/5). Kenaikan dipicu oleh data tenaga kerja AS yang lebih baik dari estimasi. Data nonfarm payrolls menjadi 115 ribu di April 2026, lebih baik dari estimasi 55 ribu (8/5). Investor menantikan pertemuan Presiden Trump dan Presiden Xi yang dijadwalkan 14-15 Mei 2026 di Beijing. Investor akan mencermati data CPI dan PPI AS yang dirilis pekan ini. Pemerintah akan menaikkan tarif royalti minerba. Pada pekan ini dijadwalkan akan dirilis indeks keyakinan konsumen, retail sales dan penjualan sepeda motor. Diperkirakan IHSG bergerak pada 6850-7100 pekan ini menjelang long weekend. Top picks pekan ini: KLBF, MAPA, MYOR, MARK dan ERAL. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Ekonomi AS tumbuh sebesar 1.6% QoQ pada estimasi kedua 1Q26, meningkat dari 0.5% QoQ pada 4Q25, namun lebih rendah dibanding estimasi awal sebesar 2.0% QoQ. Pertumbuhan tersebut ditopang oleh konsumsi rumah tangga yang naik 1.4% QoQ. Selain itu, Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) di AS meningkat 3.8% YoY pada April 2026 dari 3.5% YoY di Maret 2025 dan sejalan dengan kenaikan harga energi. Menteri Keuangan RI, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa menyatakan bahwa stabilitas ekonomi Indonesia hingga saat ini masih terjaga, meski belakangan sempat didera isu pelemahan rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) hingga kejatuhan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG).

Canada’s Wholesale Sales naik 0.1% MoM pada estimasi awal April 2026 dari 1.9% MoM pada Maret 2026. Hal ini mencerminkan peningkatan pada penjualan di subsektor bahan dan perlengkapan bangunan. Wakil Menteri Keuangan Indonesia menepis anggapan Indonesia akan kembali menuju krisis seperti tahun 1997-1998. Juda mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sepanjang 1Q26 masih baik, inflasi masih dalam target 2.5±1%, serta pertumbuhan pendapatan relatif tinggi sebesar 13.3% YoY pada April 2026.  

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index turun ke 44.8 pada Mei 2026 dari 49.8 pada April 2026, seiring gangguan pasokan di Selat Hormuz terus mendorong kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak. Uang beredar dalam arti luas (M2) tumbuh 9.2% YoY menjadi Rp10,253.7 triliun di April 2026, sedikit lebih rendah dari pertumbuhan 9.7% YoY pada Maret 2026. Hal ini dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan M1 sebesar 13.6% YoY menjadi Rp5,936.1 triliun pada April 2026, turun dari 14.4% YoY sebesar Rp6,033.9 triliun di Maret 2026.  

May 25th, 2026

May 18th, 2026

May 11th, 2026

Code : WBSA Sector : Transportation & Logistic Sub-Sector : Logistics & Deliveries --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 30 Maret 2026 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 1 April 2026 - 8 April 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 8 April 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 9 April 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 10 April 2026 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 1.800.000.000 (satu miliar delapan ratus juta) saham biasa atas nama dengan nilai nominal Rp40,- (empat puluh Rupiah) setiap saham yang akan diterbitkan dan dikeluarkan dari portepel Perseroan dalam rangka Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham, yang selanjutnya dicatatkan pada BEI pada Tanggal Pencatatan. Nilai Nominal : Rp40 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp150 - Rp170 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp306.000.000.000,- (tiga ratus enam miliar Rupiah). Penjamin Pelaksana Emisi Efek: PT Semesta Indovest Sekuritas PT OCBC Sekuritas Indonesia Penjamin Emisi : Akan Ditentukan Kemudian   By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com

Code : SUPA Sector : Financials Sub-Sector : Banks --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 8 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 10 Desember 2025 - 15 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 15 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 16 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 17 Desember 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 4,406,612,300 (empat miliar empat ratus enam juta enam ratus dua belas ribu tiga ratus) saham biasa atas nama yang merupakan saham baru Perseroan yang mewakili sebanyakbanyaknya 13% (tiga belas persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham Nilai Nominal : Rp100 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp525 - Rp695 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp3,062,595,548,500,- (tiga triliun enam puluh dua miliar lima ratus sembilan puluh lima juta lima ratus empat puluh delapan ribu lima ratus Rupiah) Penjamin Emisi : PT Mandiri Sekuritas PT CLSA Sekuritas Indonesia PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk PT Sucor Sekuritas By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -  

Code : RLCO Sector : Consumer Non-Cyclicals Sub-Sector : Processed Foods --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 28 November 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 2 Desember 2025 - 4 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 4 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 5 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 8 Desember 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 625,000,000 (enam ratus dua puluh lima juta) saham biasa atas nama dengan nilai nominal Rp50,- (lima puluh Rupiah) setiap saham atau mewakili sebesar 20.00% (dua puluh persen) dari modal yang ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Nilai Nominal : Rp50 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp150 - Rp168 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp105,000,000,000.- (serratus lima miliar Rupiah) Penjamin Emisi : PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

BNGA booked a relatively stable 1Q26 performance, with Net Income reaching IDR 1.76 trillion, down 2.2% YoY but up 9.8% QoQ, broadly in line with our FY26 estimates. Nett Interest Income declined 3.0% YoY to IDR 3.22 trillion, as lower Interest Income was partially offset by improved funding efficiency and a decline in high-cost deposits. Loan growth remained moderate at 2.2% YoY to IDR 235 trillion, mainly supported by the Corporate and SME segments, while asset quality stayed manageable with Loans at Risk improving to 6.9% and Cost of Credit remaining low at 0.79%. Funding quality continued to improve, with CASA growing 12.2% YoY to IDR 192.3 trillion and CASA ratio reaching 73.9%, exceeding management’s long-term Forward30 target of above 70%. Going forward, BNGA is focusing on strengthening low-cost funding, fee-based income, and portfolio resilience, while maintaining gradual progress toward its long-term profitability and efficiency targets. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research •⁠ ⁠Disclaimer On -

SMRA booked revenue of IDR 2.23 trillion in 1Q26, growing 6.2% YoY, supported by stable growth from both recurring revenue (+6.1% YoY) and development revenue (+6.2% YoY). Net profit remained relatively stable at IDR 318 billion amid margin normalization and higher operating expenses. 1Q26 net profit accounted for 27.8% of our FY26 estimate, while total revenue reached approximately 21.0% of our full-year forecast. This indicates earnings performance remains broadly in line with expectations despite a softer property market environment. SMRA recorded solid marketing sales of IDR 1.20 trillion in 1Q26, increase from IDR 877 billion in 1Q25 and representing around 23% of its FY26 target of IDR 5.2 trillion. Greater Jakarta remained the main contributor, while landed houses continued to dominate total sales mix. Recurring income continued to show stable growth, supported by the retail mall and hospitality segments. Mall revenue increased 6% YoY with occupancy rates remaining strong at 84%–97%, while estate and property management revenue grew 11% YoY, supporting cash flow stability. SMRA remains focused on integrated township development through residential expansion and recurring income growth. The company continues to develop Summarecon Tangerang as a new township while expanding its commercial ecosystem through Summarecon Mall Makassar, supported by favorable economic growth prospects and VAT incentives. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

JPFA booked revenue growth of 23.6% YoY to IDR17.71 trillion in 1Q26. All business segments booked an increase in sales, with the highest sales increase from the poultry breeding segment of 29.8% YoY to IDR1.09 trillion, followed by sales in the commercial farm segment increased by 26.29% YoY to IDR7.04 trillion in line with the increase in sales volume during the Ramadan period. In terms of profitability, almost all segments booked an increase in operating profit, except for the aquaculture segment, which decreased by 15.95% YoY to IDR92 billion in 1Q26. Operating profit in the poultry breeding segment booked the highest increase of 287.61% YoY to IDR784 billion, followed by the operating profit in the commercial farm segment, which grew 237.46% YoY to IDR862 billion in 1Q26, driven by volume growth and stable prices for broilers and Day Old Chicks (DOC). JPFA’s net profit grew 166.96% YoY to IDR1.82 trillion in 1Q26. In terms of expenses, the cost of goods sold increased by 13.37% YoY to IDR13.19 trillion in 1Q26, which was lower than the revenue growth, resulting in gross profit growing 67.75% YoY to IDR4.52 trillion in 1Q26. Operating expenses increased by 23.52% YoY to IDR1.92 trillion in 1Q26, primarily due to selling and marketing expenses increased by 20.49% YoY to IDR752 billion, general and administrative expenses increased by 21.09% YoY to IDR1.15 trillion, and other expenses increased to IDR171 billion in 1Q26. Nevertheless, operating profit still grew 128.17% YoY to IDR2.6 trillion in 1Q26. Looking forward, JPFA will focus on driving growth in the poultry processing and consumer products segments. This aligns with JPFA’s long-term strategy to become a top 5 provider of processed products that prioritizes operational efficiency. With a broad brand portfolio ranging from super-premium to affordable categories, JPFA has a strong positioning to reach various consumer segments in the domestic market. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

PTBA posted solid 1Q26 results, with net profit surging 104.8% YoY to IDR801.79 billion despite slightly lower revenue (-0.3% YoY) due to heavy rainfall during the seasonally weaker early-year period. Gross profit rose 47.4% YoY, supported by lower cost of revenue, while ASP stood at US$56.68/ton. Coal production declined 22% YoY to 6.62 million tons due to high rainfall intensity, while sales remained relatively resilient, declining only 1.1% YoY. Stripping ratio stood at 5.63x, in line with FY26 guidance. The government plans to implement new coal sector regulations, including the Natural Resources Export Governance regulation, export duties, and windfall tax. These measures may pressure margins, increase costs, and complicate export processes during the initial implementation phase. PTBA continues to strengthen long-term growth through coal logistics expansion and integrated energy development. The Tanjung Enim–Keramasan railway project has reached 84.42% completion and is targeted to operate in 2H26, while downstream projects include DME, SNG, artificial graphite, anode sheet, and potassium humate fertilizer. Key risks include the planned implementation of export duties, windfall tax, and the Natural Resources Export Governance regulation, all of which could potentially weigh on PTBA’s profitability going forward. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BBRI delivered solid earnings growth in 1Q26, with Net Interest Income increasing 11.9% YoY to IDR 40.1 trillion, supported by lower funding costs and strong CASA growth of 13.2% YoY. Interest expense declined 9.3% YoY despite a high interest rate environment, reflecting improved funding efficiency and maintain BBRI’s margin stability. Loan growth accelerated to 13.7% YoY to Rp1,562.5 trillion, supported by 9.4% YoY growth in Third Party Funds, while LDR remained manageable at 87.2%. Asset quality remained relatively stable with NPL-Gross maintained around 3%, indicating manageable credit risk despite BBRI’s large exposure to the micro and MSME segments. Going forward, higher BI Rates may lead to increased funding costs through gradual deposit repricing, although strong CASA growth and Bank Indonesia’s KLM incentive are expected to support margin stability and credit expansion momentum. *Full report:* By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

PWON delivered strong profitability growth in 1Q26, with net profit rising 28.78% YoY to IDR 512 billion, supported by revenue growth of 5.83% YoY and improving operational efficiency. Recurring revenue increased 8.28% YoY to IDR 1.43 trillion and contributed 87% of total revenue, reflecting the resilience and stability of PWON’s recurring-based business model amid softer development sales. Gross profitability improved, with GPM increasing to 57.18% from 55.22% in 1Q25, as cost of revenue increased only 0.93% YoY despite ongoing expansion activities. Marketing sales reached IDR 316 billion in 1Q26, with 34% supported by VAT incentives, while future growth is expected to be driven by high-rise developments in Bekasi and Surabaya alongside optimization of existing projects. Going forward, PWON is expected to maintain solid earnings growth supported by resilient recurring income, stable mall occupancy, improving hotel performance, and continued margin expansion, supported by its strong balance sheet and healthy cash position. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Banking liquidity improved in FY25 as Third Party Funds (TPF) grew 13.83% YoY, outpacing loan growth of 9.69% YoY, supported mainly by CASA growth and resulting in more conservative Loan to Deposit Ratios across banks.

Funding growth was solid among banks under our coverage, led by BBNI with TPF growth of 29.2% YoY, followed by BBRI at 7.4% YoY, while LDR levels remained relatively comfortable with BMRI at 87.6%, BRIS at 87.4%, and BBNI at 86.4%.

Loan growth varied across banks, with BBNI recording the highest expansion at 15.9% YoY, followed by BRIS (14.5%) and BMRI (13.4%), while BBCA and BNGA posted more moderate growth of 7.7% YoY and 4.5% YoY due to a more selective lending strategy.

Profitability performance in FY25 was mixed, with BBTN posting the strongest improvement (+16.4% YoY) supported by margin recovery, while BRIS and BTPS also recorded solid growth, whereas BBRI and BBNI experienced profit declines due to higher provisioning.

The banking sector outlook remains constructive, supported by improving liquidity conditions, stable funding costs, attractive valuations, and dividend yields of 3–8%, with potential additional catalysts from government policies encouraging greater insurance sector investment in equities.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

>Despite modest monthly and quarterly improvements, domestic cement sales in FY25 remained under pressure, with total volume reaching 62.0 million tons (-2.2% YoY). Weak demand was observed across both Java and non-Java regions, driven by project delays and lower construction activity, while pressure was more pronounced in major areas such as Jakarta, Yogyakarta, and Kalimantan. The bulk segment continued to underperform, reflecting subdued infrastructure-related demand. >INTP and SMGR recorded deeper volume contractions of -4.2% YoY and -4.3% YoY, respectively, compared with the industry average decline of ~2% YoY. This reflects weakening competitive positioning amid uneven demand recovery and persistent structural overcapacity. Increasing competition from second-tier producers has further limited growth opportunities and heightened margin pressure. >Entering FY26F, we expect domestic cement sales to gradually normalize, supported by potential reactivation of delayed infrastructure projects and improving construction activity. However, 1Q26F is likely to remain weak due to seasonal factors, earlier Ramadan and Eid holidays, and high rainfall. Volume recovery is expected to become more visible in 2Q26F–4Q26F, with full-year growth projected at low single-digit levels. >We maintain a Neutral rating on the cement sector, reflecting ongoing oversupply and limited volume growth prospects. Operational efficiency remains critical for earnings sustainability. We recommend INTP (HOLD; TP IDR 6,000), supported by its efficient cost structure and solid balance sheet. Re-rating potential remains contingent on accelerating government spending, demand recovery, and easing energy costs. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research — Disclaimer On —

>Global CPO supply is expected to remain broadly flat in FY26F, as Indonesia and Malaysia continue to face structural constraints from aging plantations. Smallholder replanting progress remains slow despite government targets, keeping productivity stagnant and limiting output recovery. >On the demand side, domestic consumption is poised to strengthen following the B50 mandate in FY26F, with total biodiesel demand estimated to require >19 mn kL (~21–22 mn tons of CPO). With tight supply and solid demand, we estimate CPO prices to stay elevated at MYR 4,200–4,800/MT, with upside potential should weather disruptions occur. >Meanwhile, persistent geopolitical tensions continue to limit the correction in global fertilizer prices, with the Global Fertilizer Price Index hovering at ~USD 678/MT (+25.8% YTD). Export restrictions in China and supply constraints from Russia, Belarus, Qatar, and North Africa are pushing up prices of urea, DAP, and potash, reinforcing expectations of above-historical fertilizer cost levels into FY26F. >Indonesia’s CPO export profile is set to become more diversified after the IEU–CEPA agreement opens access to the EU market, reducing reliance on India and China, which currently absorb ~33% of total exports. Producers with RSPO certification stand to benefit from assured market access, lower rejection risks, and potential EU premium pricing under the EUDR framework. >We maintain an OVERWEIGHT rating on the plantations sector, supported by structurally tight supply and resilient demand. Companies with efficient cash cost and young plantation age remain best positioned to sustain margins, while downstream exposure offers additional flexibility amid price volatility. Top picks: STAA (TP: Rp1,400) and TAPG (TP: Rp1,700), given their competitive cost profiles and younger estate portfolios. >Downside risks include: (1) CPO price volatility, (2) policy shifts in exports or biodiesel mandates, and (3) further fertilizer inflation linked to geopolitical risks.

By Phintraco Sekuritas | Research — Disclaimer On - Contact Us :
WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official Tele : phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

U.S. economic growth stood at 1.60% QoQ in the second estimate of 1Q26, down from the initial estimate of 2.00% QoQ, but still above the 0.5% QoQ recorded in 4Q25. However, consumption-based inflation indicators rose, with Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) at 3.8% YoY in April 2026, up from 3.5% YoY in March 2026. Core PCE also rose to 3.3% YoY in April 2026, from 3.0% YoY in March 2026

Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (BOP) deficit increased by 251% QoQ to US$9.145 billion in 1Q26, from a surplus of US$6.072 billion in 4Q25 . This was mainly driven by the capital account deficit, which rose by 156% QoQ to US$4.929 billion in 1Q26, from a surplus of US$8.795 billion. The widening capital account deficit was caused by heightened uncertainty in global financial markets. Nevertheless, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves remained strong at US$148.2 billion, equivalent to 5.8 months of import financing and government external debt payments.

Broad money supply (M2) grew by 9.2% YoY to Rp10,253.7 trillion in April 2026, slightly lower than the 9.7% YoY growth recorded in March 2026. Based on its components, the slowdown in M2 growth was influenced by a narrower money supply (M1), which grew by 13.6% YoY to Rp5,936.1 trillion in April 2026, down from 14.4% YoY or Rp6,033.9 trillion in March 2026. In addition, M1’s contribution to M2 declined to 57.9% in April 2026 from 58.3% in March 2026. The moderation in quasi-money growth was also one of the factors contributing to the slowdown in M2. Quasi-money grew by 4.7% YoY to Rp4,253.6 trillion in April 2026, slower than the 5.2% YoY growth of Rp4,268.4 trillion recorded in March 2026. The slowdown in M1 growth was driven by declines across all of its components, particularly rupiah demand deposits and rupiah savings deposits withdrawable at any time, which slowed to 21.3% YoY and 7.1% YoY, respectively, in April 2026, slightly lower than 26.4% YoY for rupiah demand deposits and 7.4% YoY for rupiah savings deposits withdrawable at any time in March 2026. Other M2 components also declined, contributing to the moderation in growth, such as foreign currency demand deposits, which fell to Rp760.1 trillion or grew by only 0.6% YoY in April 2026, slower than 4.3% YoY or Rp760.7 trillion in March 2026. However, this decline was partly offset by an increase in other savings deposits, which rose to Rp334.6 trillion, up 17.4% YoY in April 2026, compared with 16.2% YoY and Rp331.3 trillion in March 2026.

Global economic growth is expected to keep slowing amid high global uncertainty. This situation continues to weigh on trade, investment, and overall economic performance. U.S. President Donald Trump’s import tariff policies have created uncertainty, though recent negotiations indicate potential progress. Efforts toward a U.S.–China trade deal, including partial tariff cuts and delayed export restrictions, are offset by new risks from stricter transshipment monitoring. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the global economy by automating production and addressing labor shortages. The integration of AI and robotics enhances industrial efficiency and supports productivity through adaptive labor and migration policies. Global inflation pressures have eased except in the U.S., Europe, and the U.K., driven by import tariffs and strong demand. Several major central banks have started to cut interest rates, while others remain cautious to maintain stability. Global fiscal conditions are becoming more fragile due to geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff policies, and high public debt. Expansionary fiscal policies and rising interest rates are increasing debt costs and limiting fiscal space. Geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply chains, raising energy and food prices. However, global commodity prices in 2025 show mixed trends, influenced by weaker demand, supply disruptions, and climate change. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indonesia's economy is projected to grow 5.0%-5.2% YoY in 2026. Indonesia's economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, in line with expectations of improving global conditions and increased domestic investment activity. Consumer confidence index and retail sales are expected to remain positive in 2026. Supported by the government's stimulus program, assuming controlled inflation and consumption incentive. Inflation in 2026 is expected to remain within BI's target range of 2.5% ± 1%. This projection is based on relatively stable inflation expectations at low levels, the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, and synergistic efforts by Bank Indonesia and the Government. The opportunity for further cuts by Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate remains possible in 2026. This projection is based on relatively stable inflation expectations at low levels, the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, and synergistic efforts by Bank Indonesia and the Government. The allocation of government funds in banks has positively influenced national liquidity. By September 2025, the adjusted base money rose to Rp2,152.4 trillion, up from Rp1,961.34 trillion in August 2025. The 2026 APBN deficit is targeted at 2.68% of GDP. The 2026 APBN targets state revenue at IDR 3,153.6 trillion, comprising IDR 2,357.7 trillion in tax revenue and IDR 336 trillion in customs and excise revenue. IHSG's conservative level for 2026 is estimated at 9,255 and its aggressive level at 9,883. Sectoral Coverage: Banks, Properties & Real estate, F&B and Poultry, Retails, Telecommunication, Tower, Coal, Pharmaceuticals, Plantations, Construction, Metals & Mining, Industrial, and Cement. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

At the start of Donald Trump’s second presidency, trade wars re-emerged as a key global issue. President Trump's reciprocal tariff policy took effect on February 1, 2025, introducing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The swift in the global trade policies has increased the economic uncertainty. The Fed still sees the potential for two rate cuts this year, although it will continue to monitor the impact of tariffs. The Fed has signaled concerns about slowing economic growth and faster inflation. Geopolitical tensions have escalated in several regions. Commodity prices have become increasingly sensitive to global developments. Commodity price movements have shown divergence, with gold experiencing the highest gains, while coal prices have seen the sharpest declines.Crude prices rise to US$80–US$100/barrel if the Israel-Iran war continues and escalates. Exchange rates are expected to stabilize. After a period of volatility driven by the tariff war, exchange rate movements are projected to become more stable as trade tensions ease and potential monetary policy loosening comes into play. IHSG targeted 7,692 in 2025: Considering the various opportunities and challenges faced in 2025. Sectoral Coverage: Banking, Cement, Construction, CPO, Metals & Mining, Food & Beverage, Poultry, Retailers, Properties & Real estate, Telecommunication, and Tower. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

-May 2026- Global Highlight: Global conditions weakened as U.S., Israel, Iran tensions escalated, with the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupting arround 20% of global oil supply and raising stagflation risks. Ongoing military tensions and fragile ceasefire efforts continue to pressure markets and supply chains. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient, though moderating growth and energy driven inflation support a higher for longer interest rate outlook. Indonesia Highlight: Bank Indonesia kept rates at 4.75% amid global uncertainty and rupiah pressure, while inflation eased to 2.42% YoY in April 2026 on lower food prices. FX reserves declined due to intervention, and although retail sales and trade surplus remained supportive, weakening consumer confidence and a contractionary PMI indicate softer economic momentum. IHSG View: The JCI decreased 1.3% MoM in April 2026 (-19.55% YTD), pressured by rising oil prices, capital outflows, and negative bank outlook revisions, with continued foreign net sell and MSCI uncertainty. Market volatility is expected to persist, with the JCI projected at 8,157-8,625, supporting a selective strategy on fundamentally strong sectors. Sector Allocation: Metal Mining, Oil & Gas, Retailers, Poultry, Banks, and Infrastructure. Read more for the Stock pick. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Global inflation trends remain uneven, with easing in the U.S. and Euro Area offset by renewed upside risks from energy shocks and supply disruptions, complicating the path toward central bank targets and reinforcing a cautious global monetary stance. Major central banks including the Fed, ECB, and BOE continue to signal a “higher for longer” policy outlook, while the PBOC maintains an accommodative stance to support growth amid weak domestic demand and subdued inflation. Indonesia’s macro stability remains relatively intact with inflation within target and BI Rate held at 4.75%, but external pressures from global rates, commodity volatility, and rupiah depreciation are likely to keep policy tight to anchor expectations and maintain currency stability. Indonesia’s bond market is facing bearish flattening pressures, with short-to-medium term yields rising toward 6.5%–7.0% amid fiscal concerns, rating outlook downgrades, and sustained foreign outflows, while Bank Indonesia and domestic banks act as key stabilizing buyers. Heightened fiscal risks, geopolitical tensions, and declining foreign reserves continue to weigh on investor sentiment, keeping the 2026 bond outlook neutral with volatility ahead, though seasonal trends and reform credibility could support selective recovery in the near term. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On-

-April 2026- Research Team The Iran–Israel conflict has triggered a surge in oil prices that threatens to reverse disinflation trends in the U.S., Euro Zone, and U.K., leading central banks like the Fed, ECB, and BOE to delay interest rate cuts to combat potential stagflation. Fitch Ratings revised Indonesia’s outlook to Negative while maintaining its BBB rating due to rising policy uncertainty, low government revenue, and increasing fiscal risks from ambitious expansionary programs such as the free meals initiative. Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its interest rate at 4.75% for an extended period to safeguard the Rupiah and anchor inflation expectations, especially as domestic inflation rose to 4.76% YoY partly due to electricity tariff adjustments. Both U.S. and Indonesian bond markets are experiencing a bearish flattening trend where short-term yields are rising significantly faster than long-term yields, reflecting market expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy and heightened immediate risk. Strong U.S. Dollar performance and the Fitch downgrade led to net foreign capital outflows from Indonesian bonds in March, yet historical data shows a 60% probability of an uptrend in April with average returns of 0.54%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On-