Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah pada perdagangan Rabu (31/12). Ketiga indeks utama di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada tahun 2025. Presiden Trump menunda kenaikan tarif atas produk furnitur berlapis kain, kabinet dapur dan meja rias menjadi 1 Januari 2027 dari rencana sebelumnya 1 Januari 2026 (31/12). Neraca perdagangan RI bulan November 2025 diprediksi membukukan surplus sebesar US$2.7 miliar dari surplus US$2.4 miliar di Oktober 2025 (2/1). Data inflasi RI bulan Desember 2025 diestimasikan melambat menjadi 2.5% YoY dari 2.72% YoY di November 2025 (2/1). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 3 bps di level 4.163% (31/12). Harga emas spot turun 0.1% ke level US$4,339/troy oz (31/12). Diperkirakan penguatan IHSG berpotensi berlanjut dan menguji level 8680-8725. Top picks (2/1): BBCA, PANI, BBNI, JSMR dan ASII. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Senin (29/12). Pelemahan indeks antara lain dipicu oleh koreksi pada saham sektor teknologi menjelang akhir tahun akibat profit taking. Sentimen juga didukung oleh ekspektasi bahwa the Fed mendekati akhir siklus pengetatan kebijakan moneternya. Yen Jepang  menguat (29/12), karena pasar mempertimbangkan waktu kenaikan suku bunga tambahan di Jepang. Investor akan mencermati FOMC minutes dari pertemuan the Fed di Desember 2025 (31/12). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 2 bps di level 4.108%. Harga emas dan perak mengalami koreksi setelah sebelumnya mencapai level tertinggi baru (29/12). Harga minyak mentah menguat karena potensi gangguan pasokan di Timur Tengah (29/12). Diperkirakan penguatan IHSG berpotensi berlanjut menguji level resistance di 8670-8725, selama IHSG bertahan di atas level 8630. Top picks (30/12): BBRI, PTRO, BREN, ADMR dan AMMN. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Selasa (23/12). Penguatan indeks didukung oleh kenaikan saham-saham teknologi besar dan optimisme terhadap perekonomian AS. Ekonomi AS tumbuh 4.3% YoY pada 3Q25 setelah tumbuh 3.8% YoY di 2Q25, dan jauh di atas konsensus 3.3% YoY (23/12). Fed funds futures  masih memperkirakan akan ada dua kali pemangkasan suku bunga the Fed pada tahun depan (23/12). Pemerintah AS akan menaikkan tarif impor semikonduktor dari Tiongkok pada Juni 2027. Dari AS (24/12), investor akan menantikan data intial jobless claims. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield relatif stabil di level 4.169%. Harga emas spot menguat 1.03% ke level US$4,491/troy oz (23/12), mencapai level tertinggi baru lagi. Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi bergerak sideways di kisaran support 8500-8525 dan resistance 8650-8680. Top picks (24/12): WIFI, INET, HRUM, ISAT dan MBMA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

January 2nd, 2026

December 30th, 2025

December 29th, 2025

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada pekan lalu. Kenaikan indeks terutama didorong oleh saham-saham sektor keuangan dan industri. Harga emas mencapai level tertinggi baru di US$4,530/troy oz, ditopang oleh meningkatnya kenaikan permintaan akan aset safe-haven (26/12). Pada pekan ini, investor mengantisipasi potensi terjadinya Santa Claus rally di Wall Street, yang secara historis terjadi pada lima hari perdagangan tahun berjalan dan dua hari perdagangan tahun baru. Investor juga masih akan fokus pada indikasi kebijakan moneter the Fed pada tahun 2026. Dari domestik, pada pekan ini dijadwalkan akan dirilis data indeks manufacturing PMI dan inflasi Desember. Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi menguji level 8430-8500 dalam jangka pendek. Namun potensi technical rebound terbuka pada awal tahun baru seiring harapan baru dan kondisi IHSG yang oversold. Top picks pekan ini: AUTO, TKIM, AVIA, DOID, ASII dan BTPS. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup mixed pada pekan lalu. Berlanjutnya rebound saham sektor teknologi mendorong penguatan indeks di Wall Street pada Jumat (19/12). Pada pekan ini menjelang libur Natal, diperkirakan bursa AS dan Eropa cenderung stabil karena kalender ekonomi yang relatif sepi. Perhatian pasar akan tertuju pada pertemuan Komite Tetap Kongres Rakyat Nasional di Tiongkok pada 22-27 Desember 2025. Dari Jepang, investor akan mencermati risalah pertemuan kebijakan BOJ serta  data inflasi dan industrial production. Dari domestik akan dirilis data M2 Money Supply bulan November 2025 (22/12). Investor mencermati pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah. Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi melanjutkan koreksi menguji level 8500-8550. Top picks pekan ini: SIDO, ISAT, AMMN, MYOR, MIDI dan JSMR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Jumat (28/11). Indeks PCE prices tercatat sebesar 2.8% YoY di September 2025 dari 2.7% YoY di Agustus 2025, namun sesuai dengan perkiraan. Pada pekan ini, fokus perhatian pasar global akan tertuju pada pertemuan the Fed hari Selasa-Rabu waktu AS (9-10/12), yang diperkirakan akan menurunkan suku bunga sebesar 25 bps. Investor juga akan mencermati proyeksi ekonomi terbaru dari the Fed. Dari domestik akan dirilis penjualan sepeda motor bulan November 2025 (8/12), Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen bulan November 2025 (9/12) dan penjualan ritel bulan Oktober 2025 (10/12). Harga emas di pasar spot menguat 1% ke level US$4,212/troy oz dan harga perak kembali mencapai level tertinggi baru di US$59/troy oz (5/12). Pekan ini diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi menguji level psikologis 8700 jika the Fed menurunkan suku bunga. Top picks pekan ini: PNLF, TLKM, MEDC, ADMR, MBMA dan PGEO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Initial Jobless Claims di AS turun 16 ribu menjadi 199 ribu pada pekan berakhir 27 Desember, jauh di bawah ekspektasi pasar 220 ribu dan mencatat level terendah sejak Januari. Continuing Claims juga menurun menjadi 1.89 juta pada pekan berakhir 20 Desember dari revisi 1.91 juta , serta mencapai 1.86 juta pada pekan yang sama menurut data terbaru, mencerminkan volatilitas musiman libur akhir tahun. Klaim dari pegawai federal naik sedikit menjadi 812 dari 805 pada pekan berakhir 13 Desember 2025. Kementerian Keuangan RI menerbitkan kebijakan baru terkait penjualan Surat Utang Negara (SUN) melalui mekanisme pengumpulan pemesanan di pasar perdana domestic. Pemerintah kini mengizinkan perusahaan teknologi finansial (fintech) serta Penyelenggara Perdagangan Melalui Sistem Elektronik (PPMSE) atau marketplace untuk berperan sebagai Mitra Distribusi, sebagaimana diatur dalam Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) Nomor 94 Tahun 2025 tentang Penjualan Surat Utang Negara dengan Cara Pengumpulan Pemesanan di Pasar Perdana Domestik.  

Initial Jobless Claims di AS turun 10 ribu menjadi 214 ribupada periode berakhir 20 Desember 2025, jauh di bawah ekspektasi 223 ribu dan mencatat level terendah sejak Januari tahun ini meskipun di tengah musim libur. Sementara Continuing Jobless Claims naik menjadi 1.9 juta pada minggu berakhir 13 Desember 2025 mencerminkan pasar tenaga kerja AS yang stabil di tengah tren perekrutan dan pemecatan rendah. Menteri Keuangan RI, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, menyiapkan pembiayaan senilai Rp 2 triliun khusus bagi industri furnitur dan tekstil dalam negeri. Plafon kredit ini akan disalurkan melalui Lembaga Pembiayaan Ekspor Indonesia (LPEI). Keputusan tersebut dilakukan berdasarkan usulan pengusaha yang sebelumnya pernah mengajukan kebutuhan pembiayaan sebesar Rp 16 triliun. Saat ini pembiayaan tersebut juga telah dapat diakses oleh pengusaha lewat LPEI dengan bunga sebesar 6%.  

Indeks Chicago Fed National Activity (CFNAI) di AS naik dari -0.31 pada Agustus menjadi -0.21 pada September 2025, menandakan kontraksi aktivitas ekonomi mereda. Namun, indeks masih berada di wilayah negatif selama enam bulan berturut-turut, seiring pelemahan pada penjualan, pesanan, persediaan, serta konsumsi dan perumahan, namun komponen ketenagakerjaan mengalami perbaikan secara signifikan. Jumlah uang beredar dalam arti luas (M2) di Indonesia tumbuh lebih tinggi 8.3% YoY menjadi Rp9,891.6 triliun di November 2025 dari 7.7% YoY di Oktober 2025. Hal ini didorong oleh pertumbuhan uang beredar sempit (M1) tumbuh lebih tinggi 11.4% YoY menjadi Rp 5,748.0 triliun dari 11.0% YoY di Oktober dengan kontribusi 58.1% terhadap M2 di November 2025.  

December 29th, 2025

December 22nd, 2025

December 15th, 2025

Code : SUPA Sector : Financials Sub-Sector : Banks --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 8 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 10 Desember 2025 - 15 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 15 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 16 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 17 Desember 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 4,406,612,300 (empat miliar empat ratus enam juta enam ratus dua belas ribu tiga ratus) saham biasa atas nama yang merupakan saham baru Perseroan yang mewakili sebanyakbanyaknya 13% (tiga belas persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham Nilai Nominal : Rp100 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp525 - Rp695 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp3,062,595,548,500,- (tiga triliun enam puluh dua miliar lima ratus sembilan puluh lima juta lima ratus empat puluh delapan ribu lima ratus Rupiah) Penjamin Emisi : PT Mandiri Sekuritas PT CLSA Sekuritas Indonesia PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk PT Sucor Sekuritas By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -  

Code : RLCO Sector : Consumer Non-Cyclicals Sub-Sector : Processed Foods --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 28 November 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 2 Desember 2025 - 4 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 4 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 5 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 8 Desember 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 625,000,000 (enam ratus dua puluh lima juta) saham biasa atas nama dengan nilai nominal Rp50,- (lima puluh Rupiah) setiap saham atau mewakili sebesar 20.00% (dua puluh persen) dari modal yang ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Nilai Nominal : Rp50 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp150 - Rp168 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp105,000,000,000.- (serratus lima miliar Rupiah) Penjamin Emisi : PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

Code : PJHB Sector : Transportation & Logistic Sub-Sector : Logistics & Deliveries --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 29 Oktober 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 30 Oktober 2025 - 3 November 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 3 November 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 4 November 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 5 November 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 480.000.000 (empat ratus delapan puluh juta) saham biasa atas nama, atau sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 25% (dua puluh lima persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp50 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp310 - Rp330 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp158.400.000.000,- (seratus lima puluh delapan miliar empat ratus juta Rupiah). Penjamin Emisi : PT Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

ICBP booked limited revenue growth of 1.4% YoY to IDR56.27 trillion in 9M25. This revenue was driven by increased sales in almost all of ICBP's business segments, except for the beverages segment and the nutrition and special foods segment, which experienced sales decreases of 13.5% YoY and 7% YoY in 9M25, respectively. Meanwhile, the noodles segment, as ICBP's largest revenue contributor, booked an increase in sales of 1.7% YoY to IDR40.93 trillion in 9M25, driven by strong sales volume. ICBP's operating expenses decreased by 17.3% YoY to IDR7.06 trillion in 9M25. This condition caused operating profit to grow 6.2% YoY to IDR12.74 trillion in 9M25. ICBP's net profit decreased by 12.6% YoY to IDR8.19 trillion in 9M25. This decrease was mainly due to an increase in financial expenses to IDR3.01 trillion in 9M25 due to foreign exchange losses from financing activities of IDR1.43 trillion. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating for ICBP with the same projections and fair value as in the previous company update at IDR13,450. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

>EXCL continued to record pressured performance in 3Q25, as the integration phase with FREN remains ongoing. The company booked a net loss of IDR1.38tn for the quarter (vs IDR1.61tn in 2Q25), bringing 9M25 net loss to IDR2.60tn. On the topline, EXCL delivered sequential improvement with 3Q25 revenue reaching IDR11.45tn (+9.14% QoQ), driving 9M25 revenue to IDR30.55tn (+20.45% YoY). Growth remained anchored by the data segment, which contributed IDR10.29tn (+7.43% QoQ), supported by rising data traffic of 3,903 PB (+2.25% QoQ) and early impacts from starter-pack rationalization that is beginning to lift active customer quality. Blended ARPU increased to IDR38.90k (vs IDR36.00k in 2Q25), reflecting improved customer productivity despite a slightly lower total subscriber base of 79.60mn as of 9M25. >Profitability remained under pressure as integration-related expenses continued to weigh on operating performance. Adjusting for >these one-off items, underlying trends showed a more constructive picture, with normalized EBITDA rising to IDR5.4tn in 3Q25, compared to reported EBITDA that was held back by IDR544bn of integration costs. A similar divergence was seen in earnings, where normalized PAT reached IDR1.15tn, contrasting sharply with reported net losses driven by integration expenses, accelerated depreciation, and asset impairments. Higher D&A primarily reflected the accelerated amortization of the 900 MHz spectrum (to be returned to Komdigi in FY26) and the accelerated depreciation of legacy equipment following vendor migration. Despite near-term pressures, management remains committed to distributing dividends this year, implying a 1.32% dividend yield based on the 3-year average payout ratio (~41%). However, dividend capacity may be more constrained going forward as integration continues. >Execution on strategic priorities remains intact, with management outlining three key growth pillars: Mobile, Enterprise, and Home. Across its XL, Axis, and Smartfren brands, EXCL aims to enhance service quality through product simplification and higher digital ecosystem engagement, supported by greater usage across MyXL, MySmartfren, and Axisnet. In enterprise, EXCL continues expanding its position as a preferred ICT partner via ESTA (Enterprise Smart Technology & Automation)—a comprehensive platform offering connectivity, IoT, cloud solutions, cybersecurity, and automation capabilities. In Home Broadband, EXCL is strengthening its positioning as one of Indonesia’s leading fixed broadband providers by enhancing customer experience and flexibility, with XL Satu expected to drive stronger loyalty and deeper household penetration. These initiatives, alongside improving customer quality and the unwinding of integration-related costs, form the foundation for EXCL’s medium-term recovery outlook. >We maintain our BUY recommendation on EXCL with a TP of IDR3,100. While the company continues to face near-term earnings pressure, we view the weakness as temporary and largely attributable to ongoing integration. We remain constructive on EXCL’s outlook, supported by rising data traffic, improving customer quality, and stabilizing ARPU trends. In our view, the strengthening of EXCL’s three growth pillars will be instrumental in driving operational improvements post-integration. Downside risks include (1) slower-than-expected integration progress, delaying synergy realization, and (2) intensified pricing pressure that could hinder monetization. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research — Disclaimer On — Contact Us: WA: 08119055611 IG: phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

PGAS's performance in 9M25 was in line with our expectations. PGAS booked revenue of US$985 million (+1.43% QoQ) in 3Q25, therefore PGAS's revenue grew 3.78% YoY to US$2,923 million in 9M25 (75.61% of the FY25 estimate). Rising cost of revenue. The boost in natural gas prices from suppliers by 15.32% YoY to US$1,558 million (vs. US$1,351 million in 9M24) caused the cost of revenue to rise 8.59% YoY to US$2,421 million in 9M25. Net profit fell by 9.68% YoY to US$238 million in 9M25 (vs. US$263 million in 9M24), which brought NPM lower to 8.14% from 9.35%. The PGAS project is progressing according to the planned target in 9M25. As of 9M25, the oil transportation project has begun to progress towards the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) stage, with a focus on welding. We changed our recommendation from Buy to Hold, with the same fair value as in the initiate report at Rp1,860/saham. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

MBMA’s EBITDA grew by 22% YoY in 9M25, in line with improved cost of revenue efficiency. The majority of MBMA’s EBITDA was supported by the NPI segment, reflecting the Company’s focus on lower-cost downstream nickel production. From a bottom-line perspective, MBMA’s net profit grew by 69% QoQ to US$16 million in 3Q25, bringing total net profit to US$25 million in 9M25. The improvement in net profit was mainly driven by a significant increase in net income from associates, which rose to US$14 million. MBMA delivered solid operational performance while managing cash costs. Saprolite and limonite ore production was recorded at 4.5 million and 9.9 million wmt in 9M25, with the majority sourced from the SCM nickel mine. MBMA continues to unlock new opportunities through its AIM and HPAL plants. Commissioning of the AIM plant progressed smoothly, with acid production reaching 251,715 tonnes, alongside initial output from the chloride unit comprising 48,228 tonnes of iron pellets, 464 tonnes of copper sponge, and 7.3 tonnes of gold mud. Using the Sum of the Parts method, we estimate MBMA’s fair value at p670/share (26.2x Expected EV/EBITDA FY25F, Terminal Growth of 1.46%, and Required Return of 8.58%), higher than the previous Rp525/share. Considering MBMA’s fair price and performance, we assign a Buy rating to MBMA with a potential upside of 24.07%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

MDKA's revenue declined amidst the transition and optimization of its nickel business. MDKA's revenue decrease 23% YoY to US$1.29 billion in 9M25 from US$1.67 billion in 9M24. MDKA's EBITDA Increase 33% YoY to US$295 million in 9M25. This increase was in line with a 33% YoY reduction in cost of revenue to US$950 million, driven by a 43% YoY decrease in processing costs due to the halt of HGNM production. From the bottom line, MDKA's net profit loss is starting to improve. MDKA suffered a loss of US$35 million in 9M25, down from US$67 million in 9M24. MDKA continues to focus on production optimization and cost efficiency. This is evidenced by a significant increase in nickel production targets, with limonite ore increasing 48% YoY and saprolite increasing 135% YoY. MDKA continues to strengthen its mineral business portfolio through the development of gold and copper projects, which will drive the company's future growth. MDKA also continues to optimize nickel downstreaming through MBMA. Using the Sum of the Parts method, we estimate MDKA's fair value at Rp3,140/share (14.5x Expected EV/EBITDA FY25F, Terminal Growth of 1.46%, and Required Return of 9.35%), higher than the previous Rp2,510/share. Considering MDKA's fair price and performance, we give MDKA a buy rating with a potential upside of 43.38%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

SMRA’s net profit declined by 41% YoY to Rp549.6 billion in 9M25. This decline was mainly driven by a 15% YoY decrease in revenue to Rp6.41 trillion in 9M25. On the other hand, SMRA’s recurring income increased by 8.1% YoY, driven by a 7% YoY rise in the mall and retail segment in 9M25. The performance improvement was accompanied by stable funding quality at SMRA. SMRA’s marketing sales increased by 34% YoY in 9M25 (71% of the FY25 target), supported by the Serpong area, which contributed 44% of total marketing sales in 9M25. Government stimulus is expected to optimize SMRA’s marketing and sales performance. SMRA targets marketing sales of Rp5 trillion in FY25, a 15% increase from FY24 realization. Marketing sales reached Rp3.57 trillion in 9M25, equivalent to 71% of the FY25 target. Based on SMRA’s performance, using the Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods, we maintain a Buy rating on SMRA with a lower fair value of Rp540 per share (5.17x expected P/E and a 65% discount to NAV), revised down from Rp600 per share, implying a potential upside of 41.36%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

>Global CPO supply is expected to remain broadly flat in FY26F, as Indonesia and Malaysia continue to face structural constraints from aging plantations. Smallholder replanting progress remains slow despite government targets, keeping productivity stagnant and limiting output recovery. >On the demand side, domestic consumption is poised to strengthen following the B50 mandate in FY26F, with total biodiesel demand estimated to require >19 mn kL (~21–22 mn tons of CPO). With tight supply and solid demand, we estimate CPO prices to stay elevated at MYR 4,200–4,800/MT, with upside potential should weather disruptions occur. >Meanwhile, persistent geopolitical tensions continue to limit the correction in global fertilizer prices, with the Global Fertilizer Price Index hovering at ~USD 678/MT (+25.8% YTD). Export restrictions in China and supply constraints from Russia, Belarus, Qatar, and North Africa are pushing up prices of urea, DAP, and potash, reinforcing expectations of above-historical fertilizer cost levels into FY26F. >Indonesia’s CPO export profile is set to become more diversified after the IEU–CEPA agreement opens access to the EU market, reducing reliance on India and China, which currently absorb ~33% of total exports. Producers with RSPO certification stand to benefit from assured market access, lower rejection risks, and potential EU premium pricing under the EUDR framework. >We maintain an OVERWEIGHT rating on the plantations sector, supported by structurally tight supply and resilient demand. Companies with efficient cash cost and young plantation age remain best positioned to sustain margins, while downstream exposure offers additional flexibility amid price volatility. Top picks: STAA (TP: Rp1,400) and TAPG (TP: Rp1,700), given their competitive cost profiles and younger estate portfolios. >Downside risks include: (1) CPO price volatility, (2) policy shifts in exports or biodiesel mandates, and (3) further fertilizer inflation linked to geopolitical risks.

By Phintraco Sekuritas | Research — Disclaimer On - Contact Us :
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Consumer confidence trend weakened in the past year. As of September 2025, the CCI was recorded at level 115.0, a decrease from level 117.2 in August 2025, and became the lowest level since April 2022. This condition indicates that consumers are starting to be more cautious in their consumption, especially for non-basic needs products. Inflation in several expenditure groups showed mixed trends. The food, beverage, and tobacco group experienced the most volatile movement compared to other groups. As of October 2025, inflation in this group reached 4.99% YoY, indicating that the prices of goods and services in this group have increased relatively, therefore potentially reducing people's purchasing power in non-basic expenditure groups. Retail sales relatively solid until August 2025. As of August 2025, retail sales grew 3.5% YoY to 223.6. Despite lower than the 4.7% YoY growth in July 2025, on a monthly basis, the realization grew 0.6% MoM, indicating a recovery towards the end of the year. Online sales of retail issuers showed a positive trend. This condition indicates that the e-commerce platforms provided by retail issuers are quite effective in fulfilling the needs of modern consumers. In addition, the majority of retail issuers are focused on expanding their stores to areas outside Java, aligned with the high consumption potential in outside Java, which is expected to drive long-term revenue growth. With the various catalyst above, we upgrade our rating to overweight for the Retailers sector. Our top picks in the Retailers sector are MIDI, with an estimated fair value of IDR530/share, and ERAA, with an estimated fair value of IDR555/share. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Consumer confidence trend weakened in the past year. As of September 2025, the CCI was recorded at level 115.0, a decrease from level 117.2 in August 2025, and became the lowest level since April 2022. Domestic inflation increased in September 2025. Domestic inflation increased to 2.65% YoY in September 2025. This condition indicates that prices of goods and services tend to increase, but remain controlled. However, the government has officially launched the economic stimulus package for 2025, which can potentially maintain people's purchasing power. Raw material price movements tend to be mixed during 9M25. On a quarterly basis, several raw materials, such as cocoa and wheat, showed a decreasing trend, and coffee prices were relatively stable in 3Q25, so the profitability of F&B issuers can potentially recover in 2H25, although the recovery is relatively limited due to stronger CPO prices. Live bird and DOC prices recovery continues until September 2025. The recovery in live bird and DOC prices is aligned with the culling program implemented by the government from early April to July 2025. We assess that if the recovery in live birds and DOC prices continues, then the profitability of poultry issuers in both segments has the potential to increase. With the various catalysts above, we maintain our overweight rating on the F&B and Poultry sectors. Our top picks are INDF, with an estimated fair value of IDR9,650, and JPFA, with an estimated fair value of IDR2,720. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

U.S. economic growth expanded by 4.3% QoQ in the first estimate of Q3 2025, exceeding the consensus of 3.3% and increasing from 3.8% QoQ in Q2 2025, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (Figure 1). This aligns with the general inflation indicator, Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which rose significantly by 70bps to 2.80% QoQ in Q3 2025 from 2.1% QoQ in Q2 2025.

Broad money supply (M2) growth accelerated to 8.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) in November 2025, reaching IDR 9,891.6 trillion, up from 7.7% YoY in October (Figure 1). By components, M2 expansion was mainly driven by stronger growth in narrow money (M1), which rose 11.4% YoY to IDR 5,748.0 trillion, up from 11.0% YoY in October, accounting for 58.1% of total M2. Meanwhile, quasi-money grew by 5.9% YoY in November 2025. The expansion in M1 was largely attributable to faster growth in rupiah savings deposits withdrawable on demand, which increased 7.5% YoY in November from 6.2% YoY in October. In addition, M2 growth was supported by an 8.7% YoY increase in net claims on the central government, alongside 7.9% YoY bank credit growth and a 9.7% YoY rise in net foreign assets in November 2025.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 324.12 points in November 2025 from 324.80 points in September 2025, while core CPI increased to 331.068 points from 330.542 points over the same period. This development reflects a broad easing of overall price pressures, driven mainly by declines in more volatile components such as food prices. In contrast, the rise in core CPI, which excludes food and energy, indicates that underlying inflationary pressures remain, particularly within non-energy services, including housing rent costs. It should be noted that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to the federal government shutdown, resulting in the absence of CPI and inflation data for that month.

Global economic growth is expected to keep slowing amid high global uncertainty. This situation continues to weigh on trade, investment, and overall economic performance. U.S. President Donald Trump’s import tariff policies have created uncertainty, though recent negotiations indicate potential progress. Efforts toward a U.S.–China trade deal, including partial tariff cuts and delayed export restrictions, are offset by new risks from stricter transshipment monitoring. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the global economy by automating production and addressing labor shortages. The integration of AI and robotics enhances industrial efficiency and supports productivity through adaptive labor and migration policies. Global inflation pressures have eased except in the U.S., Europe, and the U.K., driven by import tariffs and strong demand. Several major central banks have started to cut interest rates, while others remain cautious to maintain stability. Global fiscal conditions are becoming more fragile due to geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff policies, and high public debt. Expansionary fiscal policies and rising interest rates are increasing debt costs and limiting fiscal space. Geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply chains, raising energy and food prices. However, global commodity prices in 2025 show mixed trends, influenced by weaker demand, supply disruptions, and climate change. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indonesia's economy is projected to grow 5.0%-5.2% YoY in 2026. Indonesia's economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, in line with expectations of improving global conditions and increased domestic investment activity. Consumer confidence index and retail sales are expected to remain positive in 2026. Supported by the government's stimulus program, assuming controlled inflation and consumption incentive. Inflation in 2026 is expected to remain within BI's target range of 2.5% ± 1%. This projection is based on relatively stable inflation expectations at low levels, the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, and synergistic efforts by Bank Indonesia and the Government. The opportunity for further cuts by Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate remains possible in 2026. This projection is based on relatively stable inflation expectations at low levels, the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, and synergistic efforts by Bank Indonesia and the Government. The allocation of government funds in banks has positively influenced national liquidity. By September 2025, the adjusted base money rose to Rp2,152.4 trillion, up from Rp1,961.34 trillion in August 2025. The 2026 APBN deficit is targeted at 2.68% of GDP. The 2026 APBN targets state revenue at IDR 3,153.6 trillion, comprising IDR 2,357.7 trillion in tax revenue and IDR 336 trillion in customs and excise revenue. IHSG's conservative level for 2026 is estimated at 9,255 and its aggressive level at 9,883. Sectoral Coverage: Banks, Properties & Real estate, F&B and Poultry, Retails, Telecommunication, Tower, Coal, Pharmaceuticals, Plantations, Construction, Metals & Mining, Industrial, and Cement. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

At the start of Donald Trump’s second presidency, trade wars re-emerged as a key global issue. President Trump's reciprocal tariff policy took effect on February 1, 2025, introducing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The swift in the global trade policies has increased the economic uncertainty. The Fed still sees the potential for two rate cuts this year, although it will continue to monitor the impact of tariffs. The Fed has signaled concerns about slowing economic growth and faster inflation. Geopolitical tensions have escalated in several regions. Commodity prices have become increasingly sensitive to global developments. Commodity price movements have shown divergence, with gold experiencing the highest gains, while coal prices have seen the sharpest declines.Crude prices rise to US$80–US$100/barrel if the Israel-Iran war continues and escalates. Exchange rates are expected to stabilize. After a period of volatility driven by the tariff war, exchange rate movements are projected to become more stable as trade tensions ease and potential monetary policy loosening comes into play. IHSG targeted 7,692 in 2025: Considering the various opportunities and challenges faced in 2025. Sectoral Coverage: Banking, Cement, Construction, CPO, Metals & Mining, Food & Beverage, Poultry, Retailers, Properties & Real estate, Telecommunication, and Tower. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id