Wall Street tutup di Senin (20/1) untuk memperingati Marthin Luther King Day. Donald Trump dilantik sebagai Presiden AS ke-47 di Senin (20/1). Dalam pidatonya, sinyal-sinyal mengenai pengenaan tarif yang lebih besar bagi produk dari negara lain yang berpotensi memicu perang dagang kembali disinggung. Selain itu, Trump juga menyampaikan visi untuk menekan harga komoditas energi melalui peningkatan volume produksi domestik. Harga komoditas, khususnya minyak bumi melemah lebih dari 1%, sementara harga gas alam melemah hampir 3% di Senin (20/1). Upaya AS meningkatkan volume produksi energi dapat meredam laju inflasi atau mempercepat penurunan inflasi di 2025. Pasar menantikan rilis laporan keuangan FY24 dari sejumlah emiten di IDX, terutama emiten Perbankan pada pekan ini. IHSG rawan pullback ke kisaran 7130-7150 di Selasa (21/1). Top picks (21/1) : MDKA, AKRA, SMGR, PNLF, dan JPFA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Saham-saham teknologi di AS mengalami pullback pada perdagangan Kamis (16/1). Pullback tersebut menyebabkan pelemahan pada mayoritas indeks di Wall Street, terutama Nasdaq (-0.89%) di Kamis (16/1). U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield turun signifikan ke 4.615% di Kamis (16/1). Realisasi pertumbuhan penjualan ritel di AS sebesar 0.4% yoy di Desember 2024 yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan (0.5% yoy). Data ini dinilai membuka peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan lebih banyak dari 2 kali di 2025. Harga minyak alami pullback sebesar 0.87% untuk Brent dan 1.62% untuk Crude di Kamis (16/1). Pasar mengantisipasi serangkaian data ekonomi Tiongkok pada hari ini (17/1). >Pertumbuhan ekonomi Tiongkok diperkirakan kembali ke 5% yoy di 4Q24 dari 4.6% yoy di 3Q24. Nilai tukar Rupiah kembali bergerak ke atas Rp16,300/USD di Kamis (16/1), berpotensi memicu koreksi pada saham-saham bank yang menjadi movers dalam 2 hari terakhir. IHSG diperkirakan bergerak fluktuatif dalam rentang 7075-7130 di Jumat (16/1). Top picks (17/1) : TOWR, BRPT, UNVR, MYOR dan ASSA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks utama Wall Street menguat lebih dari 1% di Rabu (15/1). Realisasi inflasi inti AS berada di 3.2% yoy di Desember 2024, lebih rendah dari perkiraan di 3.3% yoy. Sebelumnya inflasi produsen AS juga catatkan realisasi yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan di Desember 2024. Kondisi ini membangun keyakinan bahwa the Fed masih berpeluang memangkas sukubunga acuan lebih dari 2 kali di 2025. Inggris mencatatkan inflasi total di 2.5% yoy di Desember 2024, dibanding perkiraan di 2.6% yoy. Harga minyak dan gas naik lebih dari 3% pada perdagangan Rabu (15/1) disebabkan oleh penurunan U.S. Crude Oil Inventories sebesar 1.9 juta barel. IHSG berpeluang uji resistance 7100-7130 di Kamis (16/1). Penguatan Rabu (15/1) ditopang oleh technical rebound signifikan pada saham-saham bank berkapitalisasi besar dan penguatan-penguatan saham rate-sensitive lainnya, terutama properti. Kondisi ini merespon pemangkasan sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps oleh BI (15/1). Top picks (16/1) : BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, BBCA, CTRA dan BSDE. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

21 January 2025

20 Januari 2025

17 January 2025

Wall Street catatkan penguatan mingguan terbaik dalam beberapa bulan. Penguatan tersebut dipengaruhi oleh spekulasi pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed lebih dari 2 kali pasca rilis data inflasi yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan di AS. IHSG ditopang ekspektasi dampak positif dari perbaikan ekonomi Tiongkok terhadap ekonomi Indonesia, khususnya kinerja ekspor. Dari dalam negeri, stimulus fiskal dan moneter di awal 2025 diyakini menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi dari sisi konsumsi rumah tangga dan belanja Pemerintah. Data-data terbaru Desember 2024 juga membangun keyakinan realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi 4Q24 yang lebih baik dari perkiraan. IHSG masih berpeluang lanjutkan pola minor bullish reversal di pekan ini. Top picks : CPIN, ESSA, TINS, BRIS, MAPI dan AMRT. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks Wall Street melemah lebih dari 1.5% di Jumat (10/1). U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls naik ke 256 ribu di Desember 2024 dari 212 ribu di November 2024 dan U.S. Unemployment Rate ke 4.1% di Desember 2024 dari 4.2% di November 2024. U.S. 10-year bond yield naik ke 4.763% (+0.082%). Rupiah mungkin akan sedikit tertopang oleh pengaruh dari keputusan People's Bank of China (PBOC) untuk menghentikan sementara pembelian treasury bond. Penjualan kendaraan di Indonesia relatif membaik di Desember 2024 yang memperkuat ekspektasi pasar bahwa aktivitas ekonomi di Desember 2024 jauh lebih baik dari perkiraan dan diyakini meningkat di 1Q25. IHSG rawan pullback ke kisaran 7050-7000 (support area), khususnya di awal pekan. Top picks : ADMR, BUMI, PTBA, ENRG, ANTM dan TOWR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks Wall Street catatkan rebound pada perdagangan Jumat (3/1). Rebound tersebut ditopang oleh penguatan harga saham sejumlah perusahaan teknologi besar di AS. IHSG diperkirakan bergerak konsolidatif dalam rentang 7100-7200 di awal pekan dan 7100-7230 di sisa pekan ini. Pasar mengantisipasi data ketenagakerjaan AS yang diperkirakan melemah. Pasar mungkin melihatnya sebagai konfirmasi perlambatan ekonomi di Amerika Serikat, sehingga dapat memengaruhi sikap The Fed terhadap kebijakan suku bunga. Dari dalam negeri, pasar mengantisipasi data IKK penjualan ritel, dan cadangan devisa. Top picks : DOID, MAIN, PNBN, JPFA, ISAT dan MBMA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Code : HGII Sector : Infrastructure Sub-Sector : Electric Utilities --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 31 Desember 2024 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 03 - 07 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 07 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 08 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 09 Januari 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 1,300,000,000 saham biasa atas nama dengan nilai nominal Rp25 setiap saham atau sebanyak-banyaknya 20% dari jumlah modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp25 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp200 - Rp230 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp299,000,000,000 Penjamin Emisi : PT OCBC Sekuritas Indonesia PT UOB Kay Hian Sekuritas --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Code : RATU Sector : Energy Sub-Sector : Oil & Gas Production & Refinery --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 30 Desember 2024 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 02 - 06 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 06 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 7 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 8 Januari 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak – banyaknya 543.010.800 saham biasa atas nama dengan nilai nominal Rp 10 setiap saham atau sebanyak – banyaknya 20 % dari jumlah modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp10 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp900 - Rp1,150 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp218,562,870,000 Penjamin Emisi : PT Henan Putihrai Sekuritas Tbk --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Code : KSIX Sector : Properties & Real Estate Sub-Sector : Real Estate Development & Management --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 27 Desember 2024 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 02 - 06 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 06 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 07 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 08 Januari 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 320,674,800 saham baru yang merupakan saham biasa atas nama yang dikeluarkan dari Pertopel Perseroan dengan nilai nominal Rp100 setiap saham atau sebanyak-banyaknya 15.00% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp100 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp312 - Rp468 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp150,075,806,400 Penjamin Emisi : PT UOB Kay Hian Sekuritas --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

ACES recorded revenue of IDR6.23 trillion in 9M24, growing 13.37% YoY. The revenue growth was driven by the Lifestyle Products segment, which grew 20.55% YoY to IDR2.7 trillion in 9M24, and the Home Improvement Products segment, which grew 9.10% YoY to IDR3.18 trillion in 9M24. ACES recorded higher operating profit amid higher operating expenses in 9M24. ACES's operating profit grew 20.27% YoY to IDR748 billion in 9M24 (vs. IDR622 billion in 9M23) amid a 14.2% YoY increase in operating expenses to IDR1.9 trillion in 9M24 (vs. IDR1.67 trillion in 9M23). ACES officially released the ACE Hardware license by introducing a new brand called AZ-KO. In the long term, we assess that the license termination with ACE Hardware will reduce ACES's operating expenses and potentially improve profitability. However, in the short term, ACES's advertising and promotion expenses could potentially increase along with introducing the new brand. ACES plans to continue expanding to reach more customers. As of October 2024, ACES has opened 15 new stores in various cities in Indonesia with Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) of 9.3% YTD in 10M24 (vs. 8% Guidance 2024). We assess that ACES's expansion plans amidst the transition to a new brand can strengthen ACES's presence in the market and potentially drive future financial performance. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.81% and Terminal Growth of 3.06%, we estimate ACES's fair value at IDR955 per share (Expected PE at 17.29x and EV/EBITDA at 8.93x in FY24). We give ACES a Buy rating with a potential upside 35.46%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BNGA's net profit grew 4.7% YoY to IDR5.1 trillion in 9M24. This aligns with Interest Income, which grew 7.8% YoY to IDR18 trillion in 9M24. BNGA revised its Cost of Credit (COC) guidance to below 1% for FY24F. BNGA lowered its COC to 0.88% in 9M24 from 1.22% in 9M23. Credit growth was accompanied by improvements in asset quality in 9M24. BNGA recorded credit growth of 6.4% YoY to IDR218.5 trillion in 9M24. Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew 8.8% YoY in 9M24. CASA was recorded at IDR171 trillion, an increase of 8.8% YoY, with a CASA ratio of 67.7% in 9M24. CASA growth and selective loan growth are still BNGA's focus. BNGA will continue to focus on corporate and consumer financing. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.4% and Terminal Growth of 4%, we estimate BNGA's fair value at Rp2,315 (8.57x expected P/E). Therefore, we maintain a buy rating for BNGA with a potential upside of 30.03% By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BBTN recorded an Interest Income of IDR22.37 trillion, growing 7.4% YoY in 9M24. Meanwhile, Interest Expense increased 26.0% YoY to IDR13.47 trillion, with an Operating Profit Before Provision (PPOP) of IDR4.02 trillion (-32% YoY) in 9M24. BBTN's loan & financing grew 11.9% YoY to IDR356 trillion in 9M24. This growth was supported by housing loan growth, which rose 10.4% YoY in 9M24. The current Account Saving Account (CASA) ratio grew 150 bps YoY in 9M24. BBTN recorded total Third Party Funds of IDR371 trillion (+14.5% YoY) in 9M24. BBTN will continue its efforts to develop high-yield loans in FY25F. BBTN targets 15 Sales Centers in FY25, compared to 6 Sales Centers in 9M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.67% and Terminal growth of 7.59%, we estimate BBTN's fair value at 1,460 (5.60x expected P/E). Considering BBTN's fair price and relative valuation, below its 0.73 5-year average P/B, we maintain a buy rating for with a potential upside of 20.91%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT) -13 November 2024- Indonesia's economy has shown a solid recovery, with GDP growth observed across spending sectors. This reflects resilience and a balanced approach to economic recovery. Household consumption remains a primary driver of economic growth, contributing steadily to domestic demand and encouraging broader sectoral gains. Business conditions have improved, seen in positive consumer confidence and absolute sales indices, creating a supportive environment for local and international investments. Indicators such as decreasing poverty and unemployment rates and improvements in income distribution suggest gradual progress in the quality of life for many Indonesians. The government has set an optimistic economic growth target of 5.20% for 2025, with strong domestic consumption expected to play a central role in achieving this goal. Prabowo-Gibran administration intends to prioritize human resource development, emphasizing educational improvement, vocational training, and digital skills to strengthen workforce readiness. Bank Indonesia is expected to continue with flexible monetary policies, which may include easing measures, to help sustain economic growth amid global uncertainties. IHSG targeted 8698 in 2025: Considering the various opportunities and challenges faced in 2025. Sectoral Coverage: Banking, Cement, Metal & Mining, Food & Beverage, Poultry, Properties & Real estate, Telecommunication, and Tower. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

The majority of countries started to show an increase in economic growth in 2Q24, after experiencing a slowdown at the beginning of the year. Global monetary policy was less-aggressive than expected in 2024. Several central banks started easing their monetary policy in 3Q24 as the inflation rate flattened. Geopolitical conflicts continue in 2024. The conflict in the Middle East has expanded to involve countries other than Israel and Palestine. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue. Several commodity prices tend to stagnate in 2024 and There is still uncertainty risk from geopolitical conflict. Political conditions in global countries' election years were relatively stable. Economic activity's recovery has the potential to continue in 2025. This is driven by the easing of the monetary policy of several central banks, which could continue in 2025. The exchange rate has the potential to be more stable in 2025. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

**REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023** >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. **REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023** >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023.PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT) *"2024 Economic & Market Outlook: Searching for Opportunities in a Political Year."* -December 2023- --------------- *REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023* >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. *REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023* >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023. --------------- *OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. *OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id www.taspro.co.id --------------- **OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. **OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -