Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Rabu (10/12). Seperti yang diperkirakan the Fed menurunkan suku bunga sebesar 25 bps menjadi 3.75% (10/12). The Fed masih memperkirakan hanya satu kali penurunan suku bunga pada tahun 2026. Data inflasi Tiongkok meningkat 0.7% YoY di November 2025 dari 0.2% YoY di Oktober 2025 (10/12). Penjualan ritel Indonesia meningkat 4.3% YoY pada Oktober 2025, berakselerasi dari pertumbuhan 3.7% YoY di September 2025, serta dari perkiraan yang sebesar 4% YoY (10/12). Penjualan mobil domestik tumbuh 0.3% MoM di November 2025. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 3 bps ke level 4.153%. Harga emas spot menguat 0.7% ke level US$4,236/troy oz (10/12). Diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak pada kisaran 8625-8750. Top picks (11/12): ARTO, PTPP, SMDR, ASSA dan MBMA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mix di kisaran terbatas pada Selasa (9/12). Investor cenderung bersikap wait and see menjelang dirilisnya hasil pertemuan the Fed yang diperkirakan akan menurunkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 25 bps. Data  lowongan pekerjaan AS meningkat pada bulan Oktober, naik 12 ribu menjadi 7.67 juta (9/12). Data ADP Employment bulanan meningkat rata-rata 4,750 per minggu dalam empat pekan yang berakhir pada 22 November 2025 (9/10). Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen Indonesia (IKK) naik pada level 124 di bulan November 2025 dari level 121.2 di Oktober 2025. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik lebih dari 1 bps ke level 4.184%. Harga emas spot menguat  0.4% ke level US$4,205/troy oz (9/12). Diperkirakan IHSG berpeluang untuk koreksi jangka pendek menuju level 8625-8650 (10/12). Top picks (10/12): BRPT, JPFA, UNVR, MYOR dan WIFI. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Senin (8/12). Investor cenderung berhati-hati menjelang pertemuan the Fed di Selasa-Rabu pekan ini waktu AS. Yield US-Treasury dengan tenor 10 tahun yang terus naik menjadi sentimen negatif. Penjualan sepeda motor domestik tumbuh 2.1% YoY di November 2025, setelah tumbuh 8.4% YoY di Oktober 2025. Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen bulan November diperkirakan naik di level 122 dari 121.2 di Oktober 2025 (9/12). Data penjualan ritel Oktober diperkirakan tumbuh 4% YoY dari 3.7% YoY di September 2025 (10/12). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik lebih dari 2 bps ke level 4.168%. Harga emas spot melemah 0.2% ke level US$4,189/troy oz (8/12). Diperkirakan IHSG berpeluang melanjutkan penguatan menuju level 8750-8800. Top picks (9/12): HRUM, INDY, BUMI, INKP dan INCO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

December 12th, 2025

December 11th, 2025

December 10th, 2025

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Jumat (28/11). Indeks PCE prices tercatat sebesar 2.8% YoY di September 2025 dari 2.7% YoY di Agustus 2025, namun sesuai dengan perkiraan. Pada pekan ini, fokus perhatian pasar global akan tertuju pada pertemuan the Fed hari Selasa-Rabu waktu AS (9-10/12), yang diperkirakan akan menurunkan suku bunga sebesar 25 bps. Investor juga akan mencermati proyeksi ekonomi terbaru dari the Fed. Dari domestik akan dirilis penjualan sepeda motor bulan November 2025 (8/12), Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen bulan November 2025 (9/12) dan penjualan ritel bulan Oktober 2025 (10/12). Harga emas di pasar spot menguat 1% ke level US$4,212/troy oz dan harga perak kembali mencapai level tertinggi baru di US$59/troy oz (5/12). Pekan ini diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi menguji level psikologis 8700 jika the Fed menurunkan suku bunga. Top picks pekan ini: PNLF, TLKM, MEDC, ADMR, MBMA dan PGEO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

December 1 st, 2025

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Jumat (28/11). Ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga the Fed di Desember masih menjadi katalis positif. Pada pekan ini dari AS akan dirilis indeks PCE prices bulan September 2025, serta indeks ISM manufacturing PMI, indeks Michigan Consumer Confidence preliminary dan ADP Employment bulan November 2025. Investor juga menantikan data inflasi Euro Area dan indeks PMI Tiongkok. Dari domestik, investor akan mencermati indeks PMI manufacturing, neraca perdagangan dan inflasi (1/12), serta cadangan devisa (5/12). Harga perak mencapai rekor tertinggi baru di US$55/troy oz (28/11). Diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak di kisaran 8470-8600 pada pekan ini. Top picks pekan ini: PWON, INKP, PGAS, NCKL, PSAB dan ERAA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Defisit neraca perdagangan AS menyempit menjadi US$52.8 miliar pada September 2025, terendah sejak Juni 2020, dari US$59.3 miliar pada Agustus seiring ekspor naik 3.0% menjadi US$289.3 miliar dan impor hanya naik 0.6% menjadi US$342.1 miliar. Defisit terbesar tercatat dengan Irlandia sebesar US$18.2 miliar, diikuti Meksiko dan Uni Eropa masing-masing US$17.8 miliar, sementara defisit dengan China turun menjadi US$11.4 miliar dan dengan Vietnam hampir tidak berubah di US$14.4 miliar. Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) menetapkan perlakuan khusus bagi kredit atau pembiayaan dari perbankan, lembaga non-bank, lembaga keuangan mikro, dan lembaga jasa keuangan lainnya di wilayah bencana Aceh, Sumatera Utara, dan Sumatera Barat. Kebijakan ini mengacu pada POJK No.19/2022 tentang Dampak Bencana.  

The Fed memangkas suku bunga acuan sebesar 25 bps menjadi kisaran 3.5%–3.75% di 11 Desember 2025, sejalan dengan ekspektasi pasar dan menandai level terendah sejak 2022. Komite tetap terpecah yaitu Stephen Miran mendorong penurunan suku bunga yang lebih dalam sebesar 50bps, sebaliknya dengan Austan Goolsbee dan Jeffrey Schmid yang berpendapat agar suku bunga tetap dipertahankan. The Fed juga memproyeksi pemotongan suku bunga 1x sebesar 25bps di 2026, sementara inflasi PCE diperkirakan lebih rendah (2.9% dari 3.0%) di 2025 dan (2.4% dari 2.6%) di 2026. Penjualan ritel Indonesia tumbuh 4.3% YoY pada Oktober 2025 meningkat dari 3.7% YoY pada September 2025. Ini merupakan pertumbuhan tertnggi sejak Juli 2025, terutama didorong oleh percepatan penjualan makanan, minuman, dan tembakau (6.4%) serta barang budaya dan rekreasi (6.7%) yang turut didukung oleh upaya pemerintah menjaga daya beli masyarakat.  

JOLTs Job Openings AS naik tipis sebesar 12 ribu menjadi 7.67 juta pada Oktober 2025 dari 7.66 juta di September, setelah sebelumnya naik signifikan 431 ribu dari 7.23 juta di Agustus dan melampaui ekspektasi 7.2 juta. Kenaikan terutama terjadi di sektor perdagangan, transportasi, dan utilitas serta kesehatan dan layanan sosial. Sementara lowongan di jasa profesional dan bisnis, pemerintah federal turun. Indeks Keyakinan konsumen (IKK) Indonesia naik menjadi 124.0 poin pada November 2025 dari 121.2 poin di Oktober 2025. Ini merupakan level kepercayaan konsumen tertinggi sejak Februari, didorong oleh peningkatan pada seluruh enam sub-indeks utama. Selain itu, Indeks Ekonomi Saat Ini (IKE) naik menjadi 111.5 poin dan Indeks Ekspektasi Konsumen (IEK) naik menjadi 136.6 poin pada November 2025.

December 8th, 2025

December 1st, 2025

November 24th, 2025

Code : SUPA Sector : Financials Sub-Sector : Banks --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 8 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 10 Desember 2025 - 15 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 15 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 16 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 17 Desember 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 4,406,612,300 (empat miliar empat ratus enam juta enam ratus dua belas ribu tiga ratus) saham biasa atas nama yang merupakan saham baru Perseroan yang mewakili sebanyakbanyaknya 13% (tiga belas persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham Nilai Nominal : Rp100 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp525 - Rp695 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp3,062,595,548,500,- (tiga triliun enam puluh dua miliar lima ratus sembilan puluh lima juta lima ratus empat puluh delapan ribu lima ratus Rupiah) Penjamin Emisi : PT Mandiri Sekuritas PT CLSA Sekuritas Indonesia PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk PT Sucor Sekuritas By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -  

Code : RLCO Sector : Consumer Non-Cyclicals Sub-Sector : Processed Foods --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 28 November 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 2 Desember 2025 - 4 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 4 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 5 Desember 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 8 Desember 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 625,000,000 (enam ratus dua puluh lima juta) saham biasa atas nama dengan nilai nominal Rp50,- (lima puluh Rupiah) setiap saham atau mewakili sebesar 20.00% (dua puluh persen) dari modal yang ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Nilai Nominal : Rp50 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp150 - Rp168 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp105,000,000,000.- (serratus lima miliar Rupiah) Penjamin Emisi : PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

Code : PJHB Sector : Transportation & Logistic Sub-Sector : Logistics & Deliveries --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 29 Oktober 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 30 Oktober 2025 - 3 November 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 3 November 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 4 November 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 5 November 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 480.000.000 (empat ratus delapan puluh juta) saham biasa atas nama, atau sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 25% (dua puluh lima persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp50 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp310 - Rp330 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp158.400.000.000,- (seratus lima puluh delapan miliar empat ratus juta Rupiah). Penjamin Emisi : PT Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

ICBP booked limited revenue growth of 1.4% YoY to IDR56.27 trillion in 9M25. This revenue was driven by increased sales in almost all of ICBP's business segments, except for the beverages segment and the nutrition and special foods segment, which experienced sales decreases of 13.5% YoY and 7% YoY in 9M25, respectively. Meanwhile, the noodles segment, as ICBP's largest revenue contributor, booked an increase in sales of 1.7% YoY to IDR40.93 trillion in 9M25, driven by strong sales volume. ICBP's operating expenses decreased by 17.3% YoY to IDR7.06 trillion in 9M25. This condition caused operating profit to grow 6.2% YoY to IDR12.74 trillion in 9M25. ICBP's net profit decreased by 12.6% YoY to IDR8.19 trillion in 9M25. This decrease was mainly due to an increase in financial expenses to IDR3.01 trillion in 9M25 due to foreign exchange losses from financing activities of IDR1.43 trillion. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating for ICBP with the same projections and fair value as in the previous company update at IDR13,450. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

>EXCL continued to record pressured performance in 3Q25, as the integration phase with FREN remains ongoing. The company booked a net loss of IDR1.38tn for the quarter (vs IDR1.61tn in 2Q25), bringing 9M25 net loss to IDR2.60tn. On the topline, EXCL delivered sequential improvement with 3Q25 revenue reaching IDR11.45tn (+9.14% QoQ), driving 9M25 revenue to IDR30.55tn (+20.45% YoY). Growth remained anchored by the data segment, which contributed IDR10.29tn (+7.43% QoQ), supported by rising data traffic of 3,903 PB (+2.25% QoQ) and early impacts from starter-pack rationalization that is beginning to lift active customer quality. Blended ARPU increased to IDR38.90k (vs IDR36.00k in 2Q25), reflecting improved customer productivity despite a slightly lower total subscriber base of 79.60mn as of 9M25. >Profitability remained under pressure as integration-related expenses continued to weigh on operating performance. Adjusting for >these one-off items, underlying trends showed a more constructive picture, with normalized EBITDA rising to IDR5.4tn in 3Q25, compared to reported EBITDA that was held back by IDR544bn of integration costs. A similar divergence was seen in earnings, where normalized PAT reached IDR1.15tn, contrasting sharply with reported net losses driven by integration expenses, accelerated depreciation, and asset impairments. Higher D&A primarily reflected the accelerated amortization of the 900 MHz spectrum (to be returned to Komdigi in FY26) and the accelerated depreciation of legacy equipment following vendor migration. Despite near-term pressures, management remains committed to distributing dividends this year, implying a 1.32% dividend yield based on the 3-year average payout ratio (~41%). However, dividend capacity may be more constrained going forward as integration continues. >Execution on strategic priorities remains intact, with management outlining three key growth pillars: Mobile, Enterprise, and Home. Across its XL, Axis, and Smartfren brands, EXCL aims to enhance service quality through product simplification and higher digital ecosystem engagement, supported by greater usage across MyXL, MySmartfren, and Axisnet. In enterprise, EXCL continues expanding its position as a preferred ICT partner via ESTA (Enterprise Smart Technology & Automation)—a comprehensive platform offering connectivity, IoT, cloud solutions, cybersecurity, and automation capabilities. In Home Broadband, EXCL is strengthening its positioning as one of Indonesia’s leading fixed broadband providers by enhancing customer experience and flexibility, with XL Satu expected to drive stronger loyalty and deeper household penetration. These initiatives, alongside improving customer quality and the unwinding of integration-related costs, form the foundation for EXCL’s medium-term recovery outlook. >We maintain our BUY recommendation on EXCL with a TP of IDR3,100. While the company continues to face near-term earnings pressure, we view the weakness as temporary and largely attributable to ongoing integration. We remain constructive on EXCL’s outlook, supported by rising data traffic, improving customer quality, and stabilizing ARPU trends. In our view, the strengthening of EXCL’s three growth pillars will be instrumental in driving operational improvements post-integration. Downside risks include (1) slower-than-expected integration progress, delaying synergy realization, and (2) intensified pricing pressure that could hinder monetization. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research — Disclaimer On — Contact Us: WA: 08119055611 IG: phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

PGAS's performance in 9M25 was in line with our expectations. PGAS booked revenue of US$985 million (+1.43% QoQ) in 3Q25, therefore PGAS's revenue grew 3.78% YoY to US$2,923 million in 9M25 (75.61% of the FY25 estimate). Rising cost of revenue. The boost in natural gas prices from suppliers by 15.32% YoY to US$1,558 million (vs. US$1,351 million in 9M24) caused the cost of revenue to rise 8.59% YoY to US$2,421 million in 9M25. Net profit fell by 9.68% YoY to US$238 million in 9M25 (vs. US$263 million in 9M24), which brought NPM lower to 8.14% from 9.35%. The PGAS project is progressing according to the planned target in 9M25. As of 9M25, the oil transportation project has begun to progress towards the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) stage, with a focus on welding. We changed our recommendation from Buy to Hold, with the same fair value as in the initiate report at Rp1,860/saham. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

AADI’s revenue in 9M25 was in line with our expectations. The company recorded revenue of US$1.21 billion in 3Q25 (-2.1% QoQ; -13.2% YoY), resulting in a 10.9% YoY decline in 9M25 revenue to US$3.61 billion, which represents 70.5% of our FY25 estimate. The company’s expenses were lower in line with the decline in sales. Cost of revenue contracted by 9.0% YoY to US$2.67 billion in 9M25. This decrease was mainly driven by a 1.9% YoY reduction in mining costs to US$1.18 billion. From a bottom-line perspective, AADI’s performance was pressured by declines in profits from associated entities and a sizable corporate income tax expense. Global coal benchmark prices are expected to remain stable below US$110 per ton. Despite relatively strong demand from China and India, downward pressure on prices persists due to increased supply from major producing countries, declining coal consumption in developed economies, and the normalization of gas prices. In line with AADI’s performance, which remains in line with our previous estimates, we maintain our fair value estimate for AADI at Rp10,200 with a Buy recommendation. Currently, AADI is trading at a PBV of 1.03x, which is below its one-year average PBV of 1.08x. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

AALI posted a solid 3Q25 performance with revenue of IDR 7.67tn (+3.4% QoQ; +28.4% YoY), bringing 9M25 revenue to IDR 22.12tn, above both our estimate and consensus. Growth was supported by stronger CPO (+31.4% YoY) and palm kernel (+89.2% YoY) revenues, alongside improving CPO output (882k tons) and higher sales volume (+14% YoY) and ASP (+14% YoY). However, the mature plantation profile continues to drive higher external FFB sourcing, pushing raw material costs to IDR 13.54tn (+43.7% YoY) and total cost of revenue to IDR 18.86tn (+32% YoY). Net profit reached IDR 368bn in 3Q25 (-13.4% QoQ) and IDR 1.07tn in 9M25 (+33.6% YoY), broadly in line with consensus, with NPM slightly softer at 4.84%. While operational results were more resilient than initially expected—supported by firmer global CPO prices (avg MYR 4,294/MT)—margin expansion remains constrained by elevated raw material costs. We revise FY26F/27F revenue to IDR 29.03tn/30.88tn and net profit to IDR 1.43tn/1.50tn. We downgrade our recommendation from BUY to HOLD, while raising our target price to IDR 8,000 (Prev: IDR 7,000) as we roll forward our valuation to FY26F. The higher target price reflects adjustments to revenue and earnings assumptions; however, limited visibility on margin expansion—driven by structurally higher raw material costs—restricts the potential for a meaningful re-rating. Upside risks include: (1) CPO prices outperforming our base-case projections, (2) faster-than-expected normalization of raw material costs in line with estate productivity improvements, and (3) production outturn exceeding our FY26F baseline assumptions. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research — Disclaimer On — Contact Us: WA: 08119055611 IG: phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

Saprolite Ore Unlocking New Revenue Stream in 9M25. INCO booked its initial saprolite ore sales of 896,263 Wet Metric Ton (Wmt) from the Bahodopi and Pomalaa blocks in 3Q25, earlier than the previous expectation of 4Q25. This sale generated revenue of US$43,491 thousand with a contribution of 6.17% to total revenue, allowing saprolite ore sales to support nickel matte revenue, which declined due to a lower average selling price (ASP) of US$12,106 in 9M25 (-8.72% YoY). Volume Production and Sales Continue Their Growth Trend. On a quarterly basis, nickel matte production and sales volumes reached their highest levels in the past five years. Production volume came in at 19,391 metric tons (MT) in 3Q25 (+4.49% QoQ; +7.68% YoY), while sales volume reached 19,557 MT in 3Q25 (+8.51% QoQ; +10.19% YoY). Fuel Oil and Coal Efficiency. Operational efficiency, especially in energy consumption costs, continues to be prioritized as production activity increases. Fuel oil and lubricant expenses fell 7.20% YoY to US$138,535 in 9M25 (vs. US$149,288 in 9M24), while coal fuel expenses reached US$52,746 thousand in 9M25 (-10.70% YoY). CAPEX Realization Supporting Long Term Growth. INCO continues to invest in projects that will strengthen future operations. As of 9M25, CAPEX realization reached US$331.4 million, up 64.96% YoY (vs. US$200.9 million in 9M24). This CAPEX allocation is aimed at accelerating the progress of the Bahodopi and Pomalaa mine execution projects. Using the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) method, we raise our fair value estimate for INCO to Rp5,150 (from previously Rp3,560) and maintain a Buy recommendation with an upside potential of 34.46%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research * Disclaimer On -

>Global CPO supply is expected to remain broadly flat in FY26F, as Indonesia and Malaysia continue to face structural constraints from aging plantations. Smallholder replanting progress remains slow despite government targets, keeping productivity stagnant and limiting output recovery. >On the demand side, domestic consumption is poised to strengthen following the B50 mandate in FY26F, with total biodiesel demand estimated to require >19 mn kL (~21–22 mn tons of CPO). With tight supply and solid demand, we estimate CPO prices to stay elevated at MYR 4,200–4,800/MT, with upside potential should weather disruptions occur. >Meanwhile, persistent geopolitical tensions continue to limit the correction in global fertilizer prices, with the Global Fertilizer Price Index hovering at ~USD 678/MT (+25.8% YTD). Export restrictions in China and supply constraints from Russia, Belarus, Qatar, and North Africa are pushing up prices of urea, DAP, and potash, reinforcing expectations of above-historical fertilizer cost levels into FY26F. >Indonesia’s CPO export profile is set to become more diversified after the IEU–CEPA agreement opens access to the EU market, reducing reliance on India and China, which currently absorb ~33% of total exports. Producers with RSPO certification stand to benefit from assured market access, lower rejection risks, and potential EU premium pricing under the EUDR framework. >We maintain an OVERWEIGHT rating on the plantations sector, supported by structurally tight supply and resilient demand. Companies with efficient cash cost and young plantation age remain best positioned to sustain margins, while downstream exposure offers additional flexibility amid price volatility. Top picks: STAA (TP: Rp1,400) and TAPG (TP: Rp1,700), given their competitive cost profiles and younger estate portfolios. >Downside risks include: (1) CPO price volatility, (2) policy shifts in exports or biodiesel mandates, and (3) further fertilizer inflation linked to geopolitical risks.

By Phintraco Sekuritas | Research — Disclaimer On - Contact Us :
WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official Tele : phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

Consumer confidence trend weakened in the past year. As of September 2025, the CCI was recorded at level 115.0, a decrease from level 117.2 in August 2025, and became the lowest level since April 2022. This condition indicates that consumers are starting to be more cautious in their consumption, especially for non-basic needs products. Inflation in several expenditure groups showed mixed trends. The food, beverage, and tobacco group experienced the most volatile movement compared to other groups. As of October 2025, inflation in this group reached 4.99% YoY, indicating that the prices of goods and services in this group have increased relatively, therefore potentially reducing people's purchasing power in non-basic expenditure groups. Retail sales relatively solid until August 2025. As of August 2025, retail sales grew 3.5% YoY to 223.6. Despite lower than the 4.7% YoY growth in July 2025, on a monthly basis, the realization grew 0.6% MoM, indicating a recovery towards the end of the year. Online sales of retail issuers showed a positive trend. This condition indicates that the e-commerce platforms provided by retail issuers are quite effective in fulfilling the needs of modern consumers. In addition, the majority of retail issuers are focused on expanding their stores to areas outside Java, aligned with the high consumption potential in outside Java, which is expected to drive long-term revenue growth. With the various catalyst above, we upgrade our rating to overweight for the Retailers sector. Our top picks in the Retailers sector are MIDI, with an estimated fair value of IDR530/share, and ERAA, with an estimated fair value of IDR555/share. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Consumer confidence trend weakened in the past year. As of September 2025, the CCI was recorded at level 115.0, a decrease from level 117.2 in August 2025, and became the lowest level since April 2022. Domestic inflation increased in September 2025. Domestic inflation increased to 2.65% YoY in September 2025. This condition indicates that prices of goods and services tend to increase, but remain controlled. However, the government has officially launched the economic stimulus package for 2025, which can potentially maintain people's purchasing power. Raw material price movements tend to be mixed during 9M25. On a quarterly basis, several raw materials, such as cocoa and wheat, showed a decreasing trend, and coffee prices were relatively stable in 3Q25, so the profitability of F&B issuers can potentially recover in 2H25, although the recovery is relatively limited due to stronger CPO prices. Live bird and DOC prices recovery continues until September 2025. The recovery in live bird and DOC prices is aligned with the culling program implemented by the government from early April to July 2025. We assess that if the recovery in live birds and DOC prices continues, then the profitability of poultry issuers in both segments has the potential to increase. With the various catalysts above, we maintain our overweight rating on the F&B and Poultry sectors. Our top picks are INDF, with an estimated fair value of IDR9,650, and JPFA, with an estimated fair value of IDR2,720. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 10, 2025. This marked the third rate cut in 2025. The decision was taken amid indicators showing that economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace, alongside slowing job gains and a rising unemployment rate through September 2025. With economic uncertainty remaining elevated, the Fed assessed that downside risks to the labor market had increased, making policy easing necessary to maintain balance within its dual mandate.  

Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) strengthened to 124.0 in November 2025 from 121.2 in October, driven mainly by improved consumer expectations and better assessments of current economic conditions. The Current Income Index posted its largest gain, reflecting more substantial household income, while durable goods purchasing sentiment also improved. Despite this optimism, the share of spending for consumption edged down slightly to 74.6%, as more households, particularly middle-income groups, increased their savings allocation. Rising confidence coincided with expectations of firmer retail sales growth, projected to accelerate to 5.9% YoY in November, supported by stronger demand across household, recreational, and essential goods ahead of year end holidays.

U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment improved to 53.3 in early December 2025 from 51 in November, still pessimistic but above expectations as a better medium‑term outlook and lower inflation fears lifted the expectations index to 55, while current conditions slipped to 50.7 amid still high living costs, especially housing rents. At the same time, PCE inflation slightly up to 2.8% YoY in September 2025 from 2.7% YoY in August 2025, driven by stronger goods prices with non‑durables up 1.7% YoY, while services inflation eased to 3.4% YoY as healthcare and hospital costs moderated, suggesting overall price pressures are gradually rotating from services back toward goods.

Global economic growth is expected to keep slowing amid high global uncertainty. This situation continues to weigh on trade, investment, and overall economic performance. U.S. President Donald Trump’s import tariff policies have created uncertainty, though recent negotiations indicate potential progress. Efforts toward a U.S.–China trade deal, including partial tariff cuts and delayed export restrictions, are offset by new risks from stricter transshipment monitoring. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the global economy by automating production and addressing labor shortages. The integration of AI and robotics enhances industrial efficiency and supports productivity through adaptive labor and migration policies. Global inflation pressures have eased except in the U.S., Europe, and the U.K., driven by import tariffs and strong demand. Several major central banks have started to cut interest rates, while others remain cautious to maintain stability. Global fiscal conditions are becoming more fragile due to geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff policies, and high public debt. Expansionary fiscal policies and rising interest rates are increasing debt costs and limiting fiscal space. Geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply chains, raising energy and food prices. However, global commodity prices in 2025 show mixed trends, influenced by weaker demand, supply disruptions, and climate change. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indonesia's economy is projected to grow 5.0%-5.2% YoY in 2026. Indonesia's economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, in line with expectations of improving global conditions and increased domestic investment activity. Consumer confidence index and retail sales are expected to remain positive in 2026. Supported by the government's stimulus program, assuming controlled inflation and consumption incentive. Inflation in 2026 is expected to remain within BI's target range of 2.5% ± 1%. This projection is based on relatively stable inflation expectations at low levels, the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, and synergistic efforts by Bank Indonesia and the Government. The opportunity for further cuts by Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate remains possible in 2026. This projection is based on relatively stable inflation expectations at low levels, the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, and synergistic efforts by Bank Indonesia and the Government. The allocation of government funds in banks has positively influenced national liquidity. By September 2025, the adjusted base money rose to Rp2,152.4 trillion, up from Rp1,961.34 trillion in August 2025. The 2026 APBN deficit is targeted at 2.68% of GDP. The 2026 APBN targets state revenue at IDR 3,153.6 trillion, comprising IDR 2,357.7 trillion in tax revenue and IDR 336 trillion in customs and excise revenue. IHSG's conservative level for 2026 is estimated at 9,255 and its aggressive level at 9,883. Sectoral Coverage: Banks, Properties & Real estate, F&B and Poultry, Retails, Telecommunication, Tower, Coal, Pharmaceuticals, Plantations, Construction, Metals & Mining, Industrial, and Cement. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

At the start of Donald Trump’s second presidency, trade wars re-emerged as a key global issue. President Trump's reciprocal tariff policy took effect on February 1, 2025, introducing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The swift in the global trade policies has increased the economic uncertainty. The Fed still sees the potential for two rate cuts this year, although it will continue to monitor the impact of tariffs. The Fed has signaled concerns about slowing economic growth and faster inflation. Geopolitical tensions have escalated in several regions. Commodity prices have become increasingly sensitive to global developments. Commodity price movements have shown divergence, with gold experiencing the highest gains, while coal prices have seen the sharpest declines.Crude prices rise to US$80–US$100/barrel if the Israel-Iran war continues and escalates. Exchange rates are expected to stabilize. After a period of volatility driven by the tariff war, exchange rate movements are projected to become more stable as trade tensions ease and potential monetary policy loosening comes into play. IHSG targeted 7,692 in 2025: Considering the various opportunities and challenges faced in 2025. Sectoral Coverage: Banking, Cement, Construction, CPO, Metals & Mining, Food & Beverage, Poultry, Retailers, Properties & Real estate, Telecommunication, and Tower. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id