Daily Research

Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi melemah menuju level 8350-8400 (21/11)

21 Nov 2025 Daily Research
Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah cukup signifikan pada Kamis  (20/11). Pelemahan indeks dipicu oleh memudarnya rally saham Nvidia  di tengah kekhawatiran baru akan valuasi saham AI. Data tenaga kerja AS melemahkan prospek penurunan suku bunga di Desember. Data nonfarm payrolls AS bulan September 2025 sebanyak 119 ribu, rebound dari penurunan 4 ribu di Agustus 2025 (20/11). Tingkat pengangguran AS naik di level 4.4% dari 4.3% (20/11). Neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia surplus US$4.0 miliar (1.1% dari PDB) di 3Q25 dari defisit US$2.7 miliar (0.8% dari PDB) di 2Q25. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 3 bps ke level 4.098%. Harga emas spot melemah 0.7% di level US$4,051/troy oz (20/11). Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi melemah menuju level 8350-8400 (21/11). Top picks (21/11): GZCO, WIFI, INKP, BBYB, dan MEDC. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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Prospek pemangkasan suku bunga the Fed di Desember melemah

20 Nov 2025 Daily Research
Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Rabu (19/11). Saham sektor teknologi rebound menjelang dirilisnya laporan keuangan Nvidia. Perbedaan pendapat pejabat the Fed membuat peluang penurunan suku bunga the Fed di Desember hanya 26% (19/11). Data nonfarm payrolls AS bulan September 2025 diperkirakan sebanyak 50 ribu, naik dari 22 ribu di Agustus 2025 (20/11). Seperti yang diperkirakan RDG BI mempertahankan BI Rate tetap di level 4.75% (19/11). Pertumbuhan kredit bulan Oktober 2025 melambat menjadi 7.36% YoY dari 7.7% di September 2025 (19/11). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik lebih dari 1 bps ke level 4.133%. Harga emas spot menguat 1.2% di level US$4,116/troy oz. Dalam jangka pendek, IHSG diperkirakan masih akan bergerak sideways di kisaran 8300-8450. Top picks (20/11): HRTA, SMGR, ISAT, PYFA dan SSIA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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RDG BI diperkirakan mempertahankan BI Rate di level 4.75% (19/11)

19 Nov 2025 Daily Research
Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Selasa (18/11). Investor berlanjut melakukan penjualan pada saham-saham terkait AI dan sektor teknologi di bursa AS. Investor menantikan data nonfarm payrolls AS bulan September yang akan dirilis Kamis (20/11). Inflasi PPI juga akan dirilis hari Kamis (20/11). RDG BI diperkirakan akan mempertahankan BI Rate tetap di level 4.75% (19/11). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 1 bps ke level 4.119%. Harga emas spot menguat 0.6% di level US$4,068/troy oz. Secara teknikal diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi  melanjutkan pelemahan hingga menguji support area di 8300-8325. Top picks (19/11): TPIA, CPIN, ISAT, BBRI dan ULTJ. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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Technical Research

Today’s Selective Shares by Phintraco Sekuritas

21 Nov 2025 Technical Research
November 21st, 2025
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Today’s Selective Shares by Phintraco Sekuritas

20 Nov 2025 Technical Research
November 20th, 2025
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Today’s Selective Shares by Phintraco Sekuritas

19 Nov 2025 Technical Research
November 19th, 2025
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Weekly Research

Investor menantikan hasil RDG Bank Indonesia di pekan ini

17 Nov 2025 Weekly Research
Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup mixed  pada pekan lalu. Rotasi sektor teknologi, berakhirnya shutdown dan kekhawatiran bahwa the Fed tidak akan menurunkan suku bunga di Desember, merupakan faktor yang mempengaruhi pergerakan indeks di Wall Street pekan lalu. AS dan Swiss mencapai kesepakatan dagang (14/11). Investor akan menantikan hasil RDG BI (19/11). Dari domestik, akan dirilis data pertumbuhan kredit (19/11) dan M2 Money Supply (21/11). Diperkirakan dalam jangka pendek, IHSG berpotensi menguji level 8300-8325,  dalam jangka menengah panjang, IHSG masih  bullish. Top picks pekan ini: ANTM, MAPI, MAIN, SMDR dan DOID. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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Diperkirakan IHSG berpeluang menguji level 8400-8450

10 Nov 2025 Weekly Research
Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah pada pekan lalu. Kekhawatiran akan valuasi saham teknologi yang mahal dan shutdown yang berkepanjangan menjadi sentimen negatif. Indeks  Michigan Consumer Sentiment AS turun ke level 50.3 di November dari 53.6 di Oktober (7/11) Harga emas spot kembali menguat di atas level US$4,000/troy oz (7/11) karena pelemahan Dolar AS serta shutdown. Dari domestik, akan dirilis data consumer confidence, retail sales (10/11), serta penjualan sepeda motor dan mobil di pekan ini. Diperkirakan terbuka penguatan IHSG lebih lanjut menguji level 8400-8450, selama  bertahan di atas level 8300. Top picks pekan ini: ARTO, WIFI, ASII, ADRO, TOBA dan BRPT. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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Pekan ini investor menantikan data ekonomi domestik dan review indeks MSCI

03 Nov 2025 Weekly Research
Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada pekan lalu. Government shutdown yang masih berlangsung membuat data ekonomi AS yang dirilis terbatas. Pekan ini investor mencermati data ekonomi AS diantaranya ADP Employment, ISM PMI dan Michigan Consumer Sentiment index. Bank of England diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunganya tetap di pertemuan pekan ini. Investor akan mencermati pengumuman review indeks MSCI November 2025 (5/11). Dari domestik, dijadwalkan akan dirilis data manufaktur PMI, neraca perdagangan, inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi 3Q25 dan cadangan devisa. Secara teknikal, IHSG diperkirakan bergerak konsolidasi di kisaran 8000-8280 pekan ini Top picks pekan ini: TLKM, LSIP, INCO, DEWA, PSAB dan SMGR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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Fixed Income Research

Daily Fixed Income Report – 21 November 2025

21 Nov 2025 Fixed Income Research
NonFarm Payroll (NFP) di AS tumbuh 119 ribu pada September 2025, pulih dari penurunan 4 ribu di Agustus 2025 dan melebihi ekspektasi pasar sebesar 50 ribu. Pertumbuhan terbesar dalam 5 bulan terakhir sejak April 2025 didorong sektor kesehatan (43 ribu), jasa makanan dan minuman (37 ribu), namun terjadi penurunan pekerjaan di pemerintah federal (-3 ribu), dan manufaktur (-6 ribu). Pasar Obligasi ditutup melemah pada perdagagan Kamis (20/11) dari Indonesia Composite Bond Index (ICBI) turun 0.06% ke level 438.3. Pergerakan yield Surat Utang Negara (SUN) seri acuan bergerak mixed. Yield SUN tenor 5 tahun (FR0104) naik 2bps menjadi 5.44%, 10 tahun (FR0103) naik 2bps menjadi 6.15%, 15 tahun (FR0106) naik 1bps menjadi 6.38%. Sementara yield tenor 20 tahun (FR0107) tetap di 6.51%.    
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Daily Fixed Income Report – 20 November 2025

20 Nov 2025 Fixed Income Research
NAHB Housing Market Index di AS naik menjadi 38 poin pada November 2025 dari 37 poin di Oktober 2025, didorong oleh peningkatan penjualan dan jumlah kunjungan calon pembeli. Meski demikian, pasar perumahan masih menghadapi tekanan harga karena 41% pembangun rumah menurunkan harga jual di November 2025 dengan rata-rata penurunan harga jual di 6%. Hal ini menunjukkan tantangan yang masih berlanjut di sektor perumahan AS. Pasar Obligasi ditutup menguat pada perdagagan Rabu (19/11) tercatat dari Indonesia Composite Bond Index (ICBI) yang 0.06% ke level 438.59. Pergerakan yield Surat Utang Negara (SUN) seri acuan bergerak mixed. Yield SUN tenor 5 tahun (FR0104) naik 1bps di 5.42%. Sedangkan, yield SUN 10 tahun (FR0103) tetap di 6.13%, 15 tahun (FR0106) tetap di 6.36%, dan 20 tahun (FR0107) tetap di 6.51%.  
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Daily Fixed Income Report – 19 November 2025

19 Nov 2025 Fixed Income Research
Intial Jobless Claims di AS mencapai 232.000 pada pekan yang berakhir 18 Oktober, tetap di atas rata-rata sejak akhir 2Q25. Klaim pengangguran naik menjadi 1.9 juta pada pekan sebelumnya, mendekati level tertinggi sejak 2021 dan menunjukkan aktivitas perekrutan yang lemah. BI diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di 4.75% pada RDG besok (19/11) setelah memangkas 150 bps selama setahun terakhir. Namun, perkiraan inflasi yang rendah kedepan dapat memberikan ruang untuk pemangkasan suku bunga lebih lanjut. Meski demikian, BI juga harus memperhatikan nilai tukar rupiah yang cenderung melemah dalam beberapa bulan terakhir.  
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Single Stock Future

PHINTAS Weekly SSF Review

November 17th, 2025
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PHINTAS Weekly SSF Review

3 November 2025
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PHINTAS Weekly SSF Review

27 October 2025
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IPO Summary

PT Pelayaran Jaya Hidup Baru Tbk (PJHB)

23 Oct 2025 IPO Summary
Code : PJHB Sector : Transportation & Logistic Sub-Sector : Logistics & Deliveries --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 29 Oktober 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 30 Oktober 2025 - 3 November 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 3 November 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 4 November 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 5 November 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 480.000.000 (empat ratus delapan puluh juta) saham biasa atas nama, atau sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 25% (dua puluh lima persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp50 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp310 - Rp330 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp158.400.000.000,- (seratus lima puluh delapan miliar empat ratus juta Rupiah). Penjamin Emisi : PT Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (EMAS)

09 Sep 2025 IPO Summary
Code : EMAS Sector : Basic Materials Sub-Sector : Diversified Metals & Minerals --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 15 September 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 17 September 2025 - 19 September 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 19 September 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 22 September 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 23 September 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 1.618.023.300 (satu miliar enam ratus delapan belas juta dua puluh tiga ribu tiga ratus) saham biasa atas nama, yang mewakili sebesar-besarnya 10,00% (sepuluh koma nol nol persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham, yang dikeluarkan dari portepel Perseroan. Nilai Nominal : Rp150 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp1800 - Rp3020 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp4.886.430.366.000 Penjamin Emisi : PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk PT Sinarmas Sekuritas PT Indo Premier Sekuritas --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasprofits By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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PT Merry Riana Edukasi Tbk (MERI)

26 Jun 2025 IPO Summary
Code : MERI Sector : Consumer Cyclicals Sub-Sector : Education Services --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 30 Juni 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 2 Juli 2025 - 7 Juli 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 7 Juli 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 8 Juli 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 9 Juli 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak – banyaknya 266.660.000 (dua ratus enam puluh enam juta enam ratus enam puluh ribu) Saham Biasa Atas Nama yang seluruhnya adalah saham baru dan dikeluarkan dari portepel Perseroan atau sebanyak – banyaknya 25% (dua puluh lima persen) dari total modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh setelah Penawaran Umum. Nilai Nominal : Rp12.5 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp110 - Rp150 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp39.999.000.000 Penjamin Emisi : PT Lotus Andalan Sekuritas --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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Company Flash

“ICBP: Operational Efficiency Drives Operating Profit Growth”

17 Nov 2025 Company Flash
ICBP booked limited revenue growth of 1.4% YoY to IDR56.27 trillion in 9M25. This revenue was driven by increased sales in almost all of ICBP's business segments, except for the beverages segment and the nutrition and special foods segment, which experienced sales decreases of 13.5% YoY and 7% YoY in 9M25, respectively. Meanwhile, the noodles segment, as ICBP's largest revenue contributor, booked an increase in sales of 1.7% YoY to IDR40.93 trillion in 9M25, driven by strong sales volume. ICBP's operating expenses decreased by 17.3% YoY to IDR7.06 trillion in 9M25. This condition caused operating profit to grow 6.2% YoY to IDR12.74 trillion in 9M25. ICBP's net profit decreased by 12.6% YoY to IDR8.19 trillion in 9M25. This decrease was mainly due to an increase in financial expenses to IDR3.01 trillion in 9M25 due to foreign exchange losses from financing activities of IDR1.43 trillion. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating for ICBP with the same projections and fair value as in the previous company update at IDR13,450. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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“EXCL : Integration Headwinds Offset by Improving Core Metrics”

14 Nov 2025 Company Flash
>EXCL continued to record pressured performance in 3Q25, as the integration phase with FREN remains ongoing. The company booked a net loss of IDR1.38tn for the quarter (vs IDR1.61tn in 2Q25), bringing 9M25 net loss to IDR2.60tn. On the topline, EXCL delivered sequential improvement with 3Q25 revenue reaching IDR11.45tn (+9.14% QoQ), driving 9M25 revenue to IDR30.55tn (+20.45% YoY). Growth remained anchored by the data segment, which contributed IDR10.29tn (+7.43% QoQ), supported by rising data traffic of 3,903 PB (+2.25% QoQ) and early impacts from starter-pack rationalization that is beginning to lift active customer quality. Blended ARPU increased to IDR38.90k (vs IDR36.00k in 2Q25), reflecting improved customer productivity despite a slightly lower total subscriber base of 79.60mn as of 9M25. >Profitability remained under pressure as integration-related expenses continued to weigh on operating performance. Adjusting for >these one-off items, underlying trends showed a more constructive picture, with normalized EBITDA rising to IDR5.4tn in 3Q25, compared to reported EBITDA that was held back by IDR544bn of integration costs. A similar divergence was seen in earnings, where normalized PAT reached IDR1.15tn, contrasting sharply with reported net losses driven by integration expenses, accelerated depreciation, and asset impairments. Higher D&A primarily reflected the accelerated amortization of the 900 MHz spectrum (to be returned to Komdigi in FY26) and the accelerated depreciation of legacy equipment following vendor migration. Despite near-term pressures, management remains committed to distributing dividends this year, implying a 1.32% dividend yield based on the 3-year average payout ratio (~41%). However, dividend capacity may be more constrained going forward as integration continues. >Execution on strategic priorities remains intact, with management outlining three key growth pillars: Mobile, Enterprise, and Home. Across its XL, Axis, and Smartfren brands, EXCL aims to enhance service quality through product simplification and higher digital ecosystem engagement, supported by greater usage across MyXL, MySmartfren, and Axisnet. In enterprise, EXCL continues expanding its position as a preferred ICT partner via ESTA (Enterprise Smart Technology & Automation)—a comprehensive platform offering connectivity, IoT, cloud solutions, cybersecurity, and automation capabilities. In Home Broadband, EXCL is strengthening its positioning as one of Indonesia’s leading fixed broadband providers by enhancing customer experience and flexibility, with XL Satu expected to drive stronger loyalty and deeper household penetration. These initiatives, alongside improving customer quality and the unwinding of integration-related costs, form the foundation for EXCL’s medium-term recovery outlook. >We maintain our BUY recommendation on EXCL with a TP of IDR3,100. While the company continues to face near-term earnings pressure, we view the weakness as temporary and largely attributable to ongoing integration. We remain constructive on EXCL’s outlook, supported by rising data traffic, improving customer quality, and stabilizing ARPU trends. In our view, the strengthening of EXCL’s three growth pillars will be instrumental in driving operational improvements post-integration. Downside risks include (1) slower-than-expected integration progress, delaying synergy realization, and (2) intensified pricing pressure that could hinder monetization. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research — Disclaimer On — Contact Us: WA: 08119055611 IG: phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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“PGAS: Revenue meets estimates, higher supplier prices weigh on profits”

12 Nov 2025 Company Flash
PGAS's performance in 9M25 was in line with our expectations. PGAS booked revenue of US$985 million (+1.43% QoQ) in 3Q25, therefore PGAS's revenue grew 3.78% YoY to US$2,923 million in 9M25 (75.61% of the FY25 estimate). Rising cost of revenue. The boost in natural gas prices from suppliers by 15.32% YoY to US$1,558 million (vs. US$1,351 million in 9M24) caused the cost of revenue to rise 8.59% YoY to US$2,421 million in 9M25. Net profit fell by 9.68% YoY to US$238 million in 9M25 (vs. US$263 million in 9M24), which brought NPM lower to 8.14% from 9.35%. The PGAS project is progressing according to the planned target in 9M25. As of 9M25, the oil transportation project has begun to progress towards the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) stage, with a focus on welding. We changed our recommendation from Buy to Hold, with the same fair value as in the initiate report at Rp1,860/saham. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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Company Update

ANTM: Integrated Project Expansion Will Support Future Growth Path

19 Nov 2025 Company Update
ANTM’s revenue expanded 66.7% YoY to IDR 71.03 trillion in 9M25. This growth was supported by a 64.3% YoY increase in gold sales to IDR 58.67 trillion, a 171.9% YoY improvement in nickel ore sales to IDR 9.53 trillion, and a 22.5% YoY increase in alumina sales to IDR 1.37 trillion in 9M25. ANTM delivered strong profitability through 9M25. The company’s gross profit increased 167.7% YoY to IDR 10.98 trillion in 9M25, lifting its GPM to 15.2% from 9.5% in 9M24. ANTM maintains its gold sales target in the range of 30–40 tons for 2026. ANTM’s gold sales still increased 19.6% YoY to 34.2 tons in 9M25. To support its 2026 sales target, ANTM is ensuring a smooth supply flow from Freeport following the operational incident. ANTM continues to strengthen nickel downstream development in Indonesia. Nickel ore production increased 71.9% YoY to 12.55 million wmt in 9M25, enabling the company to expand processing into higher-value products such as NPI and MHP. To ensure stable alumina production, ANTM continues to secure sufficient bauxite supply. ANTM’s bauxite production increased 262.9% YoY to 2.31 million tons in 9M25. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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INET : Undervalued Digital Infrastructure with Strengthening Growth Visibility

17 Nov 2025 Company Update
>PT Sinergi Inti Andalan Prima Tbk (INET) continues to strengthen its positioning as an integrated digital-infrastructure operator, underpinned by fast-expanding capacity and accelerating contribution from newly developed business segments. Since its establishment in 2016, INET has scaled into one of Indonesia’s key wholesale connectivity players, serving more than 100 domestic and international clients across data-center interconnection, colocation backbone, local loop, NAP services, submarine-cable leasing, and FTTH contracting. The company’s ecosystem is further reinforced through three strategically aligned subsidiaries—GPI, PFI, and IAB—which collectively establish a vertically integrated value chain ranging from network development to bandwidth monetization. >GPI is currently executing a large-scale FTTH rollout across Bali–Lombok using next-generation Wi-Fi 7 technology, while PFI manages 20 Tbps of submarine bandwidth capacity obtained through an IRU scheme with Jejaring Mitra Persada. Notably, approximately 50% of this capacity has already been secured under long-term leases by a subsidiary of WIFI.IJ, providing early revenue visibility as the asset ramps up. Meanwhile, IAB has secured a sizeable mandate to construct two million homepasses in Java under PT Integrasi Jaringan Ekosistem (IJE), positioning the company for rapid scaling of contractor-based revenue as backbone integration with WIFI supports smoother execution. >INET’s growth strategy is further supported by a planned rights issue of IDR 3.2 trillion, aimed at reinforcing capital structure and accelerating network expansion. The rights issue consists of 12.8 billion new shares at an exercise price of IDR 250, with a ratio of 3 existing shares for every 4 new shares. The majority shareholder, PT Abadi Kreasi Unggul Nusantara, has committed to fully subscribing, indicating strong conviction in INET’s long-term roadmap. Proceeds will be allocated to: (1) GPI (~IDR 2.8tn) for Wi-Fi 7 deployment across Bali–Lombok; (2) PFI (IDR 213bn) for IRU obligations tied to the Rising 8 cable system; and (3) IAB (IDR 135bn) to accelerate FTTH rollout in Java. The remaining funds will enhance working capital, providing financial buffer for nationwide expansion. >Driven by multiple new verticals entering full monetization phase, we project INET to deliver a remarkable revenue CAGR of 233.19% over 2024–2028F. The submarine-cable segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.41% during FY26F–FY30F as utilization rises from 50% to 70%, while the FTTH-contracting business is projected to record a 15.62% CAGR supported by the two-million-homepass mandate. In parallel, the Bali–Lombok FTTH segment—powered by Wi-Fi 7 speeds up to 2 Gbps—is forecast to sustain a CAGR above 70.50%. Profitability trends remain constructive, with GPM improving from 35.7% in FY24 to 53.0% by FY26F. Net profit is expected to reach IDR 372bn in FY26F, reflecting a 57.38% CAGR, with NPM expanding to 14.10% in FY26F and stabilizing at 31–33% during FY27–FY30F. >We initiate coverage on INET with a BUY rating and a target price of IDR 600, implying FY26F/FY27F PBV of 3.5x/3.2x based on a DCF valuation (TG: 3.0%, WACC: 10.3%). We consider the current share price to be undervalued, as it has yet to fully reflect INET’s structural earnings uplift and scaling potential that should become more evident by FY26F. Key downside risks include (1) execution delays in the rollout of FTTH and submarine-cable projects, and (2) slower-than-expected customer acquisition in new markets. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research — Disclaimer On — Contact Us: WA: 08119055611 IG: phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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CPIN: Live Bird and DOC Price Recovery Drives Revenue in 3Q25

14 Nov 2025 Company Update
CPIN booked limited revenue growth of 1.8% YoY to IDR50.6 trillion in 9M25. This revenue was driven by an increase in sales in the feed segment of 20.2% YoY to IDR14.44 trillion, the Day Old Chick (DOC) segment increased by 30.7% YoY to IDR2.32 trillion, and other segments increased by 3.92% YoY to IDR977 billion in 9M25. On a quarterly basis, CPIN's revenue grew 14.2% QoQ to IDR17.54 trillion in 3Q25, driven by increased sales in almost all business segments, except for the processed chicken segment and other segments, which decreased by 1.8% QoQ and 12.4% QoQ in 3Q25, respectively. Meanwhile, sales in the broiler segment increased by 14.6% QoQ, the feed segment grew by 20.1% QoQ, and the DOC segment increased by 51.4% QoQ in 3Q25. CPIN's operating expenses decreased by 7.3% YoY to IDR2.95 trillion in 9M25, due to relatively stable general and administrative expenses, gains on changes in the fair value of biological assets, higher other operating income, and lower other operating expenses. CPIN's net profit grew 41.1% YoY to IDR3.37 trillion in 9M25. This growth was aligned with an increase in operating profit due to lower operating expenses. In addition, CPIN's net profit was also driven by an increase in financial income from interest on current accounts and deposits, foreign exchange gains, and lower financial expenses due to a decrease in interest expenses from bank debt. CPIN, through its subsidiary PT Charoen Pokphand Jaya Farm, has completed the purchase of poultry breeding facilities worth more than IDR400 billion from PT Satwa Utama Raya, a Controlled Company whose shares are indirectly owned by CPIN at 99.99%. This step reflects efforts to optimize business structure and operational efficiency, therefore potentially supporting long-term profitability. We maintain our Buy recommendation for CPIN with a higher target price of IDR5,700/share (previous IDR5,400). This recommendation is based on calculations using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 6.95% and a Terminal Growth of 3.43%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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Sectoral Update

Retailers: Online Sales Increase Amid Strong Expansion

05 Nov 2025 Sectoral Update
Consumer confidence trend weakened in the past year. As of September 2025, the CCI was recorded at level 115.0, a decrease from level 117.2 in August 2025, and became the lowest level since April 2022. This condition indicates that consumers are starting to be more cautious in their consumption, especially for non-basic needs products. Inflation in several expenditure groups showed mixed trends. The food, beverage, and tobacco group experienced the most volatile movement compared to other groups. As of October 2025, inflation in this group reached 4.99% YoY, indicating that the prices of goods and services in this group have increased relatively, therefore potentially reducing people's purchasing power in non-basic expenditure groups. Retail sales relatively solid until August 2025. As of August 2025, retail sales grew 3.5% YoY to 223.6. Despite lower than the 4.7% YoY growth in July 2025, on a monthly basis, the realization grew 0.6% MoM, indicating a recovery towards the end of the year. Online sales of retail issuers showed a positive trend. This condition indicates that the e-commerce platforms provided by retail issuers are quite effective in fulfilling the needs of modern consumers. In addition, the majority of retail issuers are focused on expanding their stores to areas outside Java, aligned with the high consumption potential in outside Java, which is expected to drive long-term revenue growth. With the various catalyst above, we upgrade our rating to overweight for the Retailers sector. Our top picks in the Retailers sector are MIDI, with an estimated fair value of IDR530/share, and ERAA, with an estimated fair value of IDR555/share. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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F&B and Poultry: Government Stimulus Potentially Maintains People’s Purchasing Power

23 Oct 2025 Sectoral Update
Consumer confidence trend weakened in the past year. As of September 2025, the CCI was recorded at level 115.0, a decrease from level 117.2 in August 2025, and became the lowest level since April 2022. Domestic inflation increased in September 2025. Domestic inflation increased to 2.65% YoY in September 2025. This condition indicates that prices of goods and services tend to increase, but remain controlled. However, the government has officially launched the economic stimulus package for 2025, which can potentially maintain people's purchasing power. Raw material price movements tend to be mixed during 9M25. On a quarterly basis, several raw materials, such as cocoa and wheat, showed a decreasing trend, and coffee prices were relatively stable in 3Q25, so the profitability of F&B issuers can potentially recover in 2H25, although the recovery is relatively limited due to stronger CPO prices. Live bird and DOC prices recovery continues until September 2025. The recovery in live bird and DOC prices is aligned with the culling program implemented by the government from early April to July 2025. We assess that if the recovery in live birds and DOC prices continues, then the profitability of poultry issuers in both segments has the potential to increase. With the various catalysts above, we maintain our overweight rating on the F&B and Poultry sectors. Our top picks are INDF, with an estimated fair value of IDR9,650, and JPFA, with an estimated fair value of IDR2,720. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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Cement: Weak Demand and High Capacity Keep Pressure on Margins

22 Oct 2025 Sectoral Update
>Domestic cement demand remains sluggish as of 9M25, with total sales of 44.61 mn tons (-3.1% YoY), reflecting only 69.7% of FY25F estimates — below the five-year average of 72%. The slowdown in construction activity, especially in Jakarta (-17.6% YoY) and Kalimantan (-16.8% YoY), reflects weaker purchasing power and the fiscal shift toward human-capital programs under the 2025–2029 RPJMN. >The structural oversupply issue continues to weigh on the sector, with installed capacity of 120 mn tons versus annual consumption of only 62–64 mn tons, translating to utilization of 52–55%. We expect utilization to hover around 55–58% through FY26F–FY29F, assuming a slow demand recovery, limited new project initiation, and flat FY26F volume growth (Phintas est: 0–1%). >SMGR recorded 8.44 mn tons (+1.65% QoQ; -3.83% YoY) sales in 3Q25, with market share slipping to 47.9%. INTP posted 5.07 mn tons (+25.6% QoQ; -7.0% YoY) and 13.07 mn tons (-4.5% YoY) in 9M25, maintaining market share at 29.3%. Growth outside Java (+29.4% QoQ) helped offset weakness in Java, but not fully. >We maintain a Neutral view on the cement sector amid persistent oversupply and muted consumption growth. Operational efficiency remains the main profitability driver. We recommend HOLD INTP with a TP of Rp6,000/share ( EV/EBITDA 4.56x/4.19x FY26F–FY27F ). Potential re-rating may occur if government spending accelerates and bulk cement demand recovers alongside lower energy costs. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research – Disclaimer On – Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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Macro Flash

U.S. Labor Market Moderated in September 2025

21 Nov 2025 Macro Flash
The U.S. labor market data released after the end of the government shutdown showed signs of improvement, though not across all indicators. In the latest September 2025 data, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) posted a significant increase, and wage growth remained stable, although the unemployment rate continued to rise.
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Indonesia’s Balance of Payment Deficit Showed Improvement, Driven by a Surplus Current Account in 3Q25

21 Nov 2025 Macro Flash
Indonesia’s Balance of Payments deficit recovered by 5.33% quarter-on-quarter to USD 6.4 billion in the third quarter of 2025, supported by a surplus in the current account position of USD 4.0 billion, while portfolio investment and other investment both recorded deficits of USD 7.1 billion and USD 3.4 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves remained high at USD 148.7 billion, equivalent to 6.0 months of import financing in 3Q25.
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Bank Indonesia Holds Rate at 4.75% to Stabilize Inflation and Rupiah

20 Nov 2025 Macro Flash
The Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia (BI) maintained its policy rate at 4.75%, with the Deposit Facility Rate at 3.75% and the Lending Facility Rate at 5.50% on November 19, 2025. This decision is consistent with the short-term policy focus on maintaining the stability Rupiah againts the US dollar and attracting foreign portfolio investment inflows amid global uncertainty. This uncertainty is also influenced by the Fed’s cautious approach to lowering the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), as inflation remains elevated and signs of labor-market weakness persist in the US. At the same time, disruptions to government operations due to the US shutdown further add to global market risk pressures.
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Market Outlook

Global Economic Research : Embracing the Economic Dynamics of 2026

11 Nov 2025 Market Outlook
Global economic growth is expected to keep slowing amid high global uncertainty. This situation continues to weigh on trade, investment, and overall economic performance. U.S. President Donald Trump’s import tariff policies have created uncertainty, though recent negotiations indicate potential progress. Efforts toward a U.S.–China trade deal, including partial tariff cuts and delayed export restrictions, are offset by new risks from stricter transshipment monitoring. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the global economy by automating production and addressing labor shortages. The integration of AI and robotics enhances industrial efficiency and supports productivity through adaptive labor and migration policies. Global inflation pressures have eased except in the U.S., Europe, and the U.K., driven by import tariffs and strong demand. Several major central banks have started to cut interest rates, while others remain cautious to maintain stability. Global fiscal conditions are becoming more fragile due to geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff policies, and high public debt. Expansionary fiscal policies and rising interest rates are increasing debt costs and limiting fiscal space. Geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply chains, raising energy and food prices. However, global commodity prices in 2025 show mixed trends, influenced by weaker demand, supply disruptions, and climate change. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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Indonesia Economic Research: Embracing the Economic Dynamics of 2026

11 Nov 2025 Market Outlook
Indonesia's economy is projected to grow 5.0%-5.2% YoY in 2026. Indonesia's economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, in line with expectations of improving global conditions and increased domestic investment activity. Consumer confidence index and retail sales are expected to remain positive in 2026. Supported by the government's stimulus program, assuming controlled inflation and consumption incentive. Inflation in 2026 is expected to remain within BI's target range of 2.5% ± 1%. This projection is based on relatively stable inflation expectations at low levels, the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, and synergistic efforts by Bank Indonesia and the Government. The opportunity for further cuts by Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate remains possible in 2026. This projection is based on relatively stable inflation expectations at low levels, the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, and synergistic efforts by Bank Indonesia and the Government. The allocation of government funds in banks has positively influenced national liquidity. By September 2025, the adjusted base money rose to Rp2,152.4 trillion, up from Rp1,961.34 trillion in August 2025. The 2026 APBN deficit is targeted at 2.68% of GDP. The 2026 APBN targets state revenue at IDR 3,153.6 trillion, comprising IDR 2,357.7 trillion in tax revenue and IDR 336 trillion in customs and excise revenue. IHSG's conservative level for 2026 is estimated at 9,255 and its aggressive level at 9,883. Sectoral Coverage: Banks, Properties & Real estate, F&B and Poultry, Retails, Telecommunication, Tower, Coal, Pharmaceuticals, Plantations, Construction, Metals & Mining, Industrial, and Cement. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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Navigating the Potential Shifting of the Global Economic Landscape

23 Jun 2025 Market Outlook
At the start of Donald Trump’s second presidency, trade wars re-emerged as a key global issue. President Trump's reciprocal tariff policy took effect on February 1, 2025, introducing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The swift in the global trade policies has increased the economic uncertainty. The Fed still sees the potential for two rate cuts this year, although it will continue to monitor the impact of tariffs. The Fed has signaled concerns about slowing economic growth and faster inflation. Geopolitical tensions have escalated in several regions. Commodity prices have become increasingly sensitive to global developments. Commodity price movements have shown divergence, with gold experiencing the highest gains, while coal prices have seen the sharpest declines.Crude prices rise to US$80–US$100/barrel if the Israel-Iran war continues and escalates. Exchange rates are expected to stabilize. After a period of volatility driven by the tariff war, exchange rate movements are projected to become more stable as trade tensions ease and potential monetary policy loosening comes into play. IHSG targeted 7,692 in 2025: Considering the various opportunities and challenges faced in 2025. Sectoral Coverage: Banking, Cement, Construction, CPO, Metals & Mining, Food & Beverage, Poultry, Retailers, Properties & Real estate, Telecommunication, and Tower. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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