Indeks-indeks Wall Street ditutup flat di Kamis (19/12) pasca pelemahan signifikan di Rabu (18/12). Pergerakan ini masih dipengaruhi oleh sinyal the Fed mengenai pemangkasan yang less-aggressive di tahun 2025. U.S. 10-year bond yield naik 0.068% ke 4.566% di Kamis (19/12). Indeks-indeks utama di Eropa melemah lebih dari 1% di perdagangan Kamis (19/12). Harga brent melemah 1% ke US$72.65/barel, sementara harga crude melemah 1.03% ke US$69.85/barel di Kamis (19/12). Rupiah mulai menguji level Rp16,300/USD di Kamis (19/12) sore. Secara historis pada tahun ini, level Rp16,200/USD merupakan critical level atau trigger level, khususnya bagi BI untuk melakukan upaya pengembalian stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah yang lebih agresif. IHSG breaklow level psikologis 7000 di Kamis (19/12). Waspadai support level terdekat IHSG berikutnya di 6900. Top picks (20/12) : PGEO, ICBP, INTP, TLKM dan EMTK. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks Wall Street melemah singnifikan di perdagangan Rabu (18/12). FOMC the Fed memangkas sukubunga acuan 25 bps (18/12). Pernyataan Powell mengindikasikan bahwa the Fed kemungkinan hanya memangkas 50 bps yang terbagi dalam 2 kali pemangkasan di tahun 2025, jauh lebih sedikit dari perkiraan awal pasar. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield melonjak ke atas 4.5% (18/12). USD Index menguat lebih dari 1% ke 108.15 di pagi ini (19/12). IHSG masih rawan melanjutkan pelemahan di Kamis (19/12). Waspadai potensi pelemahan ke kisaran level 7000-7030 di sisa pekan ini. Lonjakan yield obligasi di AS diperkirakan memicu berlanjutnya capital outflow dari pasar modal Indonesia. Keputusan BI untuk menahan sukubunga acuan di 6% (18/12) diperkirakan berdampak terbatas terhadap hal tersebut, khususnya dalam jangka pendek. Top picks (19/12) : SSIA, ACES, ANTM, HRUM dan TINS. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

DJIA (-0.61%) catatkan rally pelemahan selama 9 hari berturut-turut di Selasa (17/12). The Fed diperkirakan memangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps dalam FOMC tanggal 17-18 Desember 2024. Pasar berharap dan mengantisipasi petunjuk arah kebijakan moneter the Fed dari Kepala the Fed, Jerome Powel pasca FOMC. BoE diperkirakan menahan sukubunga acuan di pertemuan Desember ini. U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield mulai bergerak turun dari 4.4% pada perdagangan Selasa (17/12). Penurunan diperkirakan berlanjut sampai dengan pasca FOMC. IHSG kembali membentuk black marubozu pasca three black crows. Pola ini mengindikasikan tekanan jual masih relatif besar. Pasar nampaknya dipengaruhi oleh faktor non fundamental. Faktor yang dimaksud adalah periode penawaran umum dari 3 calon emiten, yaitu CBDK, DGWG dan RATU di pekan pertama Januari 2025. Kondisi ini diperkirakan menyebabkan pengetatan likuiditas di pasar saham pada 2 pekan terakhir Desember 2024. Top picks (18/12) : BRPT, EXCL, ISAT, JPFA, dan KLBF. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

20 December 2024

19 December 2024

18 December 2024

Rally indeks-indeks Wall Street berakhir di pekan lalu. Pelemahan tersebut terindikasi dipicu oleh kecenderungan “cash is king” seiring penguatan USD Index. Pasar nampaknya menantikan keputusan the Fed dalam FOMC 18 Desember 2024 sebagai katalis atau validasi untuk melakukan window dressing di pekan terakhir 2024. Kondisi tersebut berpotensi menekan IHSG, khususnya di awal pekan ini. Potensi capital outflow diperkirakan cukup kuat di awal pekan. Sentimen kemungkinan berbalik pasca pengumuman hasil FOMC (18/12). Pergerakan IHSG di awal pekan juga akan dipengaruhi oleh respon pasar terhadap data ekonomi Tiongkok. Top picks : MIDI, MYOR , ICBP, DOID, ARTO, dan ADRO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks Wall Street ditopang oleh keyakinan pasar terhadap peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed di Desember 2024. CME FedWatch Tools catat peluang pemangkasan 25 bps di Desember 2024 mencapai 86% (6/12). IHSG mulai berbalik memasuki fase bullish reversal. Pullback wajar mungkin akan terjadi beberapa kali dalam bullish reversal ini, mengingat Stochastic RSI telah memasuki overbought area. Pasar mengantisipasi data indeks keyakinan konsumen dan penjualan ritel. Keduanya akan mempengaruhi keyakinan pasar terhadap peluang perbaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi kembali ke atas 5% di 4Q24. IHSG berpotensi lanjutkan penguatan uji level psikologis 7400 sampai dengan 7450-7480 di pekan ini. Top picks : JPFA, EXCL, AKRA, BBTN, MEDC, ERAA, dan TOWR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat di Jumat (29/11). S&P 500 catat kinerja bulanan terbaik di 2024. Sejumlah petinggi bank sentral di Eropa memperingatkan potensi kondisi higher-for-longer sukubunga acuan di tahun 2025 seiring ekspektasi peningkatan intensitas trade wars. Net sell investor asing diperkirakan mereda di Senin (2/12) pasca efektifnya hasil review terbaru indeks MSCI. Anggaran program Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) dikabarkan ditekan ke Rp10,000/pack dari Rp15,000/pack. Kabar ini bersamaan dengan kabar bahwa rencana kenaikan PPN menjadi 12% di 2025 akan ditunda. Kondisi-kondisi di atas diperkirakan memicu fluktuasi IHSG di konsolidasi area 7100-7230 pada pekan ini. Top picks : EXCL, BFIN, ASSA, PNLF, TAPG, dan MAPI. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Code : RATU Sector : Energy Sub-Sector : Oil & Gas Production & Refinery --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 30 Desember 2024 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 02 - 06 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 06 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 7 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 8 Januari 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak – banyaknya 543.010.800 saham biasa atas nama dengan nilai nominal Rp 10 setiap saham atau sebanyak – banyaknya 20 % dari jumlah modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp10 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp900 - Rp1,150 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp218,562,870,000 Penjamin Emisi : PT Henan Putihrai Sekuritas Tbk --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Code : KSIX Sector : Properties & Real Estate Sub-Sector : Real Estate Development & Management --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 27 Desember 2024 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 02 - 06 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 06 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 07 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 08 Januari 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 320,674,800 saham baru yang merupakan saham biasa atas nama yang dikeluarkan dari Pertopel Perseroan dengan nilai nominal Rp100 setiap saham atau sebanyak-banyaknya 15.00% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp100 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp312 - Rp468 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp150,075,806,400 Penjamin Emisi : PT UOB Kay Hian Sekuritas --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Code : CBDK Sector : Properties & Real Estate Sub-Sector : Real Estate Development & Management --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 30 Desember 2024 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 03 - 09 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 09 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 10 Januari 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 13 Januari 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 566,894,500 saham biasa dengan nilai nominal Rp20 setiap saham, yang mewakili sebesar-besarnya 10.00% dari total modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham yang seluruhnya merupakan Saham Baru dan dikeluarkan dari portepel Perseroan. Nilai Nominal : Rp20 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp3000 - Rp4060 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp2,301,591,670,000 Penjamin Emisi : PT Trimegah Sekuritas Tbk --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BNGA's net profit grew 4.7% YoY to IDR5.1 trillion in 9M24. This aligns with Interest Income, which grew 7.8% YoY to IDR18 trillion in 9M24. BNGA revised its Cost of Credit (COC) guidance to below 1% for FY24F. BNGA lowered its COC to 0.88% in 9M24 from 1.22% in 9M23. Credit growth was accompanied by improvements in asset quality in 9M24. BNGA recorded credit growth of 6.4% YoY to IDR218.5 trillion in 9M24. Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew 8.8% YoY in 9M24. CASA was recorded at IDR171 trillion, an increase of 8.8% YoY, with a CASA ratio of 67.7% in 9M24. CASA growth and selective loan growth are still BNGA's focus. BNGA will continue to focus on corporate and consumer financing. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.4% and Terminal Growth of 4%, we estimate BNGA's fair value at Rp2,315 (8.57x expected P/E). Therefore, we maintain a buy rating for BNGA with a potential upside of 30.03% By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BBTN recorded an Interest Income of IDR22.37 trillion, growing 7.4% YoY in 9M24. Meanwhile, Interest Expense increased 26.0% YoY to IDR13.47 trillion, with an Operating Profit Before Provision (PPOP) of IDR4.02 trillion (-32% YoY) in 9M24. BBTN's loan & financing grew 11.9% YoY to IDR356 trillion in 9M24. This growth was supported by housing loan growth, which rose 10.4% YoY in 9M24. The current Account Saving Account (CASA) ratio grew 150 bps YoY in 9M24. BBTN recorded total Third Party Funds of IDR371 trillion (+14.5% YoY) in 9M24. BBTN will continue its efforts to develop high-yield loans in FY25F. BBTN targets 15 Sales Centers in FY25, compared to 6 Sales Centers in 9M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.67% and Terminal growth of 7.59%, we estimate BBTN's fair value at 1,460 (5.60x expected P/E). Considering BBTN's fair price and relative valuation, below its 0.73 5-year average P/B, we maintain a buy rating for with a potential upside of 20.91%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

MIDI recorded revenue of Rp14.69 trillion in 9M24, growing 13.64% YoY (vs. Rp12.92 trillion in 9M23). Revenue in Food segment grew 12.8% YoY to Rp8.85 trillion (vs. Rp7.85 trillion in 9M23), Fresh Food segment grew 16% YoY to Rp2.08 trillion (vs. Rp1.79 trillion in 9M23), and Non-Food segment grew 14.32% YoY to Rp3.74 trillion (vs. Rp3.27 trillion in 9M23). Non-operational performance improved in 9M24. MIDI's non-operating expenses decreased by 57% YoY to Rp36 billion in 9M24 (vs. Rp83 billion in 9M23). The decline was aligned with MIDI's Interest Expenses, which decreased by 55.7% YoY due to the repayment of MIDI's short-term bank debt in 9M24. We assess that this condition can potentially improve MIDI's financial performance, especially in maximizing profitability in the future. Expansion continues in 9M24. During 9M24, MIDI added 123 Alfamidi stores and 9 Alfamidi Super stores, indicating that MIDI continues to expand to increase revenue. At the same time, 3 Midi Fresh outlets were closed. In addition, MIDI also evaluated Lawson stores by closing 79 Lawson stores that had negative EBITDA or cash flow to reduce further losses. In the future, MIDI plans to close all Lawson outlets with a store-in-store format as it is considered less profitable and will focus on Lawson with a stand-alone format. MIDI innovated by launching a pilot project called JA-DI (Jajan di Alfamidi) in August 2024. MIDI targets to open 50 JA-DI booths by the end of 2024. We believe that this innovation can potentially increase MIDI's sales and profitability in the future. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.63% and Terminal Growth of 7.80%, we estimate MIDI's fair value at IDR513 per share (Expected PE at 24.94x and EV/EBITDA at 9.24x in FY24). We give MIDI a Buy rating with a potential upside of 24.00%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT) -13 November 2024- Indonesia's economy has shown a solid recovery, with GDP growth observed across spending sectors. This reflects resilience and a balanced approach to economic recovery. Household consumption remains a primary driver of economic growth, contributing steadily to domestic demand and encouraging broader sectoral gains. Business conditions have improved, seen in positive consumer confidence and absolute sales indices, creating a supportive environment for local and international investments. Indicators such as decreasing poverty and unemployment rates and improvements in income distribution suggest gradual progress in the quality of life for many Indonesians. The government has set an optimistic economic growth target of 5.20% for 2025, with strong domestic consumption expected to play a central role in achieving this goal. Prabowo-Gibran administration intends to prioritize human resource development, emphasizing educational improvement, vocational training, and digital skills to strengthen workforce readiness. Bank Indonesia is expected to continue with flexible monetary policies, which may include easing measures, to help sustain economic growth amid global uncertainties. IHSG targeted 8698 in 2025: Considering the various opportunities and challenges faced in 2025. Sectoral Coverage: Banking, Cement, Metal & Mining, Food & Beverage, Poultry, Properties & Real estate, Telecommunication, and Tower. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

The majority of countries started to show an increase in economic growth in 2Q24, after experiencing a slowdown at the beginning of the year. Global monetary policy was less-aggressive than expected in 2024. Several central banks started easing their monetary policy in 3Q24 as the inflation rate flattened. Geopolitical conflicts continue in 2024. The conflict in the Middle East has expanded to involve countries other than Israel and Palestine. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue. Several commodity prices tend to stagnate in 2024 and There is still uncertainty risk from geopolitical conflict. Political conditions in global countries' election years were relatively stable. Economic activity's recovery has the potential to continue in 2025. This is driven by the easing of the monetary policy of several central banks, which could continue in 2025. The exchange rate has the potential to be more stable in 2025. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

**REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023** >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. **REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023** >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023.PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT) *"2024 Economic & Market Outlook: Searching for Opportunities in a Political Year."* -December 2023- --------------- *REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023* >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. *REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023* >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023. --------------- *OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. *OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id www.taspro.co.id --------------- **OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. **OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -