MBMA : Transforming Nickel Production for Sustainable Long-Term Profitability

24 Mar 2025
MBMA's net profit dropped by -61.8% QoQ to USD 13.78 million in 3Q24. This issue arises from lowered production and negative margins in the High-Grade Nickel Matte (HGNM). Mining exploration has increased to achieve the demand for 9 million wmt limonite ore annually, driven by the presence of High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) plants at PT ESG ("PT ESG New Energy Material") and PT Meiming ("PT Meiming New Energy Material") in 2025. Opportunity to provide batteries for electric vehicles (EVs). MBMA has successfully produced 164,985 tonnes of acid and 225,036 tonnes of steam, while its two HPAL plants with GEM Co., Ltd. are set to optimally produce Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) in 2025. This advancement will allow MBMA to maintain its market share and revenue streams through enhanced downstream operational capabilities, acquisition of nickel processing facilities, product diversification, and expansive nickel ore resources. We estimate MBMA's fair value at Rp525 (implying 32.17x/2.2x expected P/E and P/BV). This positive outlook is driven by the expected additional sales of more than 25,000 tonnes of Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), cost efficiency, and optimization of mining explorations. Therefore, we maintain our buy rating for MBMA with a potential upside of 77.46%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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SSMS: Strong Productivity and Integration Support Growth

13 Mar 2025
SSMS posted revenue of IDR11.01 trillion in FY25E (+5.33% YoY), supported by strong FFB productivity and optimization of processing capacity. Nucleus FFB production reached 1,723 thousand tons (95% of total 1,817 thousand tons of FFB produced), with a 4-year CAGR of 4.06%. The nucleus FFB yield stood at 25x (vs. blended yield of 22x in FY23). SSMS operates eight palm oil mills (PKS) with an average capacity of 540 tons per hour or 3,200 tons per day. With a production CAGR of 2.03% (FY20-FY23), plant utilization remained at ~65% in FY23, processing 2,345 thousand tons of FFB, 76% sourced internally. Looking ahead, internal supply is projected to grow to 1,841 thousand tons in FY26F (CAGR 2020-2026E: 2.23%), increasing internal contribution to processed FFB to 80-81%, with mill utilization projected at 65-66% in FY25E/FY26F. With high productivity and operational efficiency, we estimate CPO productivity to remain solid (CAGR 2020-2025F: 2.57%), supported by prime-phase tree age. The olein segment is expected to contribute significantly, with a sales volume CAGR of 2.17% (2021-2025F) and ASP estimated at IDR 13,400–IDR 13,500/kg in FY25F. We initiate a BUY rating for SSMS with a target price of IDR2,375, based on a DCF valuation (WACC: 8.30%, terminal growth: 2.0%). The B35-to-B40 transition in 2025 is expected to drive higher domestic CPO consumption, further supporting SSMS's growth. Additionally, its young tree age (Nucleus Only: 15-16 years, Blended: 14.8 years) enables optimal FFB production. The fully integrated upstream-to-downstream model adds value by allowing product diversification with higher margins. Key risks: 1) Global CPO price fluctuations; 2) Regulatory changes; 3) Rising operational costs impacting profitability. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On-  
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JPFA : Resilient Performance Drives Profitability in FY24

12 Mar 2025
JPFA's net profit increased 239.6% YoY to IDR3.21 trillion in FY24. The net profit growth aligned with an interest income increase of 13.45% YoY to IDR50 billion in FY24 (vs. IDR44 billion in FY23). In addition, JPFA's interest expenses decreased by 11.98% YoY to IDR870 billion in FY24 (vs. IDR988 billion in FY23). The Commercial Farm segment successfully booked an operating profit of IDR1.59 trillion in FY24. The Commercial Farm segment's operating profit in FY24 marks the first profit for the segment after experiencing operating losses from 2019 to 2023. The positive performance of the Commercial Farm segment in FY24 was in line with the increase in average Live Bird prices by 9.96% QoQ or 10.38% YoY in 4Q24 to IDR20,174/Kg. Raw material price stability can potentially drive JPFA's profitability. The average domestic corn price in February 2025 was IDR6,360/kg, which decreased by around 1% MoM from IDR6,426/kg in January 2025. Meanwhile, the average price of Soybean Meal (SBM) was US$300/ton, which decreased by around 3% MoM from US$310/ton in January 2025. JPFA conducted a study on nutritious meal programs in schools from May to June 2024. Overall, the study's results can improve students' nutritional intake, which is reflected in the reduction of the number of students with malnutrition status by 2.8%. This initiative signifies JPFA's readiness to support and collaborate with the government in the Free Nutritious Meal program, which is currently underway in stages. With JPFA's performance exceeded our expectations, we increased our FY25F projection. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on JPFA with a higher fair value estimate of IDR2,400 per share (Expected PE at 6.83x and EV/EBITDA at 4.73x in FY25F). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BBTN: Monetizing housing ecosystem will optimize BBTN profitability

12 Mar 2025
BBTN booked an interest income of IDR29.55 trillion, growing by 4.5% YoY in FY24. Meanwhile, interest expense increased by 21.9% YoY to IDR17.85 trillion, with a pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) of IDR5.87 trillion (-28.7% YoY) in FY24. Housing Loans continue to support BBTN's loan growth. BBTN's loans & financing grew 7.3% YoY to IDR358 trillion in FY24. BBTN continues to strive to increase fee-based income by launching Bale by BTN in February 2025 to increase BBTN's transactional banking. Management targets the number of Bale by BTN users to grow 62% YoY in FY25F compared to previous BTN mobile banking users. BBTN will continue its efforts to develop high-yield loans in FY25F. BBTN targets 15 Sales Centers in FY25, compared to 9 Sales Centers in FY24. management targets the contribution to non-subsidized KPR to increase >20% in FY25. With BBTN's performance supported by various stimuli for the property sector (three million homes program, property tax elimination) and a potentially lower BI rate in FY25F, we estimate that BBTN's net profit can grow by around 20% YoY in FY25F. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.15% and Terminal Growth of 7.56%, we estimate BBTN's fair value at 1,250 (4.5x expected P/E). Considering BBTN's fair price and relative valuation below -1 standard deviation of 0.51 of its 5-year P/E, we maintain our buy rating for BBTN with a lower fair value and potential upside of 26.26% By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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MYOR : Profitability Improved Driven by Product Selling Price Adjustment in 4Q24

10 Mar 2025
MYOR booked revenue growth of 14.57% YoY to IDR36.1 trillion in FY24. The growth was in line with the increase in production capacity from the new plant, the launch of several new products, and product selling price adjustments. The potential for increased demand during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr is believed to maintain the positive trend of MYOR's revenue. MYOR still has the challenge of rising raw material prices. The average price of cocoa increased 135.6% YoY to US$7,980/ton in FY24. Meanwhile, the average price of coffee increased by 37.7% YoY to US$239/Lbs in FY24. This condition made MYOR's cost of goods sold increase by 20.46% YoY to IDR26.85 trillion in FY24, therefore making MYOR's Gross Profit Margin (GPM) decreased in FY24 to 25.57%. We assess that MYOR's future profitability recovery will depend on the price normalization of both raw materials. MYOR booked a net profit growth of 227% QoQ to IDR1 trillion in 4Q24. The growth was in line with the increase in revenue by 10.8% QoQ to IDR10.43 trillion due to the launch of several new products and product selling price adjustments made since October 2024. Meanwhile, on an annualized basis, MYOR's net profit decreased by 5.46% YoY to IDR3.1 trillion in FY24 due to the higher raw material prices and higher interest expenses by 40.52% YoY to IDR425 billion in line with the issuance of IDR500 billion bonds. MYOR is targeting revenue growth of 12-15% YoY in FY25, while GPM is targeted at 23-25%, assuming coffee and cocoa prices remain relatively stable until the end of 2025. In addition, MYOR has budgeted capital expenditures of IDR1 trillion in 2025, which are focused on driving expansion and increasing production capacity. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.18% and Terminal Growth of 3.73%, we estimate MYOR's fair value at IDR2,850 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on MYOR with a lower target and potential upside of 23.38%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BNGA: Optimize Consumer Loans with Maintained Liquidity

04 Mar 2025
BNGA's net profit grew 5.4% YoY to IDR 6.8 trillion in FY24. This is in line with the growth of Interest Income by 8.6% YoY to IDR24.2 trillion in FY24. BNGA plans to increase the dividend payout ratio (DPR) to 60% for the 2024 financial year. BNGA's average dividend payout ratio in the last 3 years is 47% (50% for FY23, 44% for FY22, and 45% for FY21). Loan growth was accompanied by improvements in asset quality in FY24. BNGA booked loan growth of 6.9% YoY to IDR228 trillion in FY24. Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew 14.2% YoY to IDR172 trillion in FY24. BNGA aims to optimize consumer loans through mortgage loan optimization and OCTO mobile. For the consumer segment, BNGA will optimize mortgage loans by focusing on secondary cities without ignoring big cities (with low Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital) Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.74% and Terminal Growth of 4.9%, we estimate BNGA's fair value at Rp2,040 (7.15x expected P/E). Therefore, we maintain a buy rating for BNGA with a potential upside of 22.89%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BTPS : Potential for continued asset quality improvements

03 Mar 2025
BTPS's net profit decrease 2% YoY to IDR1.06 trillion in FY24. This aligns with BTPS's more conservative strategy in distributing financing in 2024 to maintain BTPS's asset quality. BTPS asset quality improvement continues. BTPS Net Non-Performing Financing (NPF), which was 0.0% in FY24, was lower than 0.3% in FY23, with financing loss provision (CKPN) down 28% YoY in FY24. BTPS focuses on reducing cycle one financing (new customers) to enhance asset quality. For information, the number of cycle one customers was 23% in FY24, lower than 29% in FY23 and 32% in FY22. Consumer empowerment to increase consumer loyalty. BTPS has an empowerment program called bestee" to increase the capacity of its customers as entrepreneurs by providing them access to knowledge or assistance from contributors through an integrated digital platform. With the potential of Islamic banking in Indonesia, asset quality and development, and improvement of BTPS service quality, We estimate BTPS's net profit can grow ~3% in FY25F. We estimate BTPS' fair value at 1,225 (8.68x expected P/E). Considering BTPS' fair price and relative valuation below 1.7x –1 standard deviation of 5-year P/B, we maintain our buy rating for BTPS with a potential upside of 40.00%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BDMN : Loan Growth Maintained with Good Asset Quality

03 Mar 2025
BDMN booked net interest income growing 2% QoQ and 2% YoY to IDR15.6 trillion in FY24. In line with this growth, Pre Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) also increased to IDR8.3 trillion (+1% YoY) in FY24. Loan grew 8% YoY with a Gross NPL of 1.9% (-30 bps YoY) in FY24.This value is among the lowest gross NPL values compared to peers. Loan at Risk (LaR) has tended to decline in the last 5 years. The LaR ratio fell 100 bps YoY to 10.6% in FY24. Adira Finance's contribution to total loan is maintained at around 30%. Adira Finance is the second highest contributing segment after wholesales to BDMN's total loan. Interest Income is estimated to grow 6% YoY to IDR15.6 trillion in FY25F. Management targets BDMN's loan growth in 2025 of 9% to 11%, with Corporate loan is targeted to grow double digits. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.93% and Terminal Growth of 1.35%, we estimate BDMN's fair value at 2,810 (7.34x expected P/E). Therefore, we maintain a buy rating for BDMN with a potential upside of 18.07% By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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AALI : Rising CPO Demand Supports Growth, but Cost Pressures Persist

25 Feb 2025
AALI posted revenue of IDR5.52 trillion in 4Q24 (-7.46% QoQ; +9.18% YoY), supported by the CPO and derivatives segment at IDR5.09 trillion (-6.66% QoQ; +7.79% YoY). Despite a 20.15% QoQ decline in the cost of revenue, rising raw material costs (+24.76% QoQ; +44.82% YoY). However, efficiency in harvesting costs (-39.46% QoQ) helped boost gross profit to IDR1.33 trillion (+84.86% QoQ; +62.58% YoY). Net profit rose to IDR346 billion in 4Q24 (+15.43% QoQ; +35.68% YoY), driven by an improved cost structure. Cumulatively, FY24 net profit surged 43.24% YoY to IDR1.14 trillion, with net profit margin improving to 5.26% (vs. 5.09% in FY23). The biodiesel sector continues to drive CPO demand, with a 5-year CAGR of 22.73%, supported by the B20-B35 transition. In 2023, CPO consumption for biodiesel reached 10k tons (46% of total domestic consumption). The planned B40 implementation in 2025 is expected to further boost demand. We initiate a BUY with a TP of IDR7,000, backed by strong CPO demand. However, risks include potential B40 delays, declining FFB production, and rising raw material costs impacting margins. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On-
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BBRI : Performance below Expectation, Maintain buy with lower target price

17 Feb 2025
BBRI recorded a net profit of IDR60.1 trillion, growing 0.1% YoY in FY24. Interest Income grew 10% YoY, followed by Net Interest Income, which rose 3.4% YoY to IDR137.4 trillion in FY24. Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew 5.1% YoY to IDR919 trillion in FY24. With a CASA ratio of 67.30% in FY24. Loan Deposit Ratio (LDR) increased from 84.22% in FY23 to 88.85%. Despite experiencing tighter liquidity, BBRI's LDR increase was the lowest compared to other big four banks. Moderate credit growth to improve asset quality. BBRI credit grew 7% YoY to IDR1,355 trillion in FY24.4. For FY25F, BBRI targets credit growth of 7%-9% lower than the 2024 target (10%-12%), which aligns with BBRI's efforts to maintain asset quality. Based on BBRI's FY24 performance using the Discounted Cash Flow method, we maintain a BUY rating for BBRI with a fair value of 5.325 (12.94x expected P/E) and a relative valuation below 2.27x its 5-year average P/E and a potential upside of 37.95%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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