MIDI : Launching JA-DI to Increase Profitability

02 Des 2024
MIDI recorded revenue of Rp14.69 trillion in 9M24, growing 13.64% YoY (vs. Rp12.92 trillion in 9M23). Revenue in Food segment grew 12.8% YoY to Rp8.85 trillion (vs. Rp7.85 trillion in 9M23), Fresh Food segment grew 16% YoY to Rp2.08 trillion (vs. Rp1.79 trillion in 9M23), and Non-Food segment grew 14.32% YoY to Rp3.74 trillion (vs. Rp3.27 trillion in 9M23). Non-operational performance improved in 9M24. MIDI's non-operating expenses decreased by 57% YoY to Rp36 billion in 9M24 (vs. Rp83 billion in 9M23). The decline was aligned with MIDI's Interest Expenses, which decreased by 55.7% YoY due to the repayment of MIDI's short-term bank debt in 9M24. We assess that this condition can potentially improve MIDI's financial performance, especially in maximizing profitability in the future. Expansion continues in 9M24. During 9M24, MIDI added 123 Alfamidi stores and 9 Alfamidi Super stores, indicating that MIDI continues to expand to increase revenue. At the same time, 3 Midi Fresh outlets were closed. In addition, MIDI also evaluated Lawson stores by closing 79 Lawson stores that had negative EBITDA or cash flow to reduce further losses. In the future, MIDI plans to close all Lawson outlets with a store-in-store format as it is considered less profitable and will focus on Lawson with a stand-alone format. MIDI innovated by launching a pilot project called JA-DI (Jajan di Alfamidi) in August 2024. MIDI targets to open 50 JA-DI booths by the end of 2024. We believe that this innovation can potentially increase MIDI's sales and profitability in the future. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.63% and Terminal Growth of 7.80%, we estimate MIDI's fair value at IDR513 per share (Expected PE at 24.94x and EV/EBITDA at 9.24x in FY24). We give MIDI a Buy rating with a potential upside of 24.00%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BDMN : Credit Growth Maintained with Good Asset Quality

02 Des 2024
BDMN recorded a net profit growth of 41% QoQ to IDR2.32 trillion in 9M24. Net Interest Income grew 4% YoY to IDR11.7 trillion in 9M24. Credit grew 12% YoY, with a Gross NPL of 2.0% (-30 bps YoY) in 9M24. BDMN distributed total credit, reaching IDR186 billion (+12% YoY) in 9M24. Loan at Risk (LaR) has tended to decline in the last 5 years. BDMN continues to improve in terms of disbursed credit. Adira Finance's contribution to total credit is maintained at around 30%. Adira Finance is the second highest contributing segment after wholesales to BDMN's total credit. Interest Income is estimated to grow 9% to IDR13.7 trillion in FY24. Management targets BDMN's credit growth 2024 of 9% to 10%.Corporate credit is targeted to grow double digits, with credit for the green energy sector reaching 25% of total credit in FY24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.5% and Terminal Growth of 1.6%, we estimate BDMN's fair value at 2,920 (11.44x expected P/E). So, we give BDMN a buy rating with a potential upside of 15.21%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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SMRA: Potential for optimizing marketing sales in the remainder of 2024

28 Nov 2024
SMRA's net profit grew 43% yoy to IDR933 billion in 9M24. This growth is in line with revenue growth to IDR7.5 trillion in 9M24. Better funding potential. SMRA made a non-cash deposit in the form of mall assets to its subsidiary PT Summarecon Investment Property (SMIP) on June 26, 2024. The government-borne VAT incentive (PPN DTP) can potentially optimize SMRA's marketing sales achievement in FY24F. Net profit is estimated to grow around 42% yoy in FY24F. The residential property segment is expected to continue contributing to this achievement, along with the potential stimulus from the government, the massive launch of new housing and clusters after the election, and high interest rates. Using discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate SMRA's fair value to be 770 (8.61x expected P/E FY24F and 50% discount to NAV). Considering SMRA's fair price, we give SMRA a buy rating with a potential upside of 35.62%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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EXCL: Robust 9M24 Performance Amid Declining 3Q24

25 Nov 2024
EXCL recorded a solid EBITDA performance with 9M24 reaching Rp13.30 trillion, equivalent to 79.68% of FY24F estimate, supported by annual growth in the data segment despite quarterly contraction. Operational efficiency remains strong with a manageable increase in operating expenses at a low single-digit level, ensuring sustained profitability growth. The Fixed Broadband (FBB) segment saw significant subscriber growth, surpassing 1 million after the strategic Link Net acquisition, positioning EXCL as the second-largest FBB player in Indonesia. EXCL's digital ecosystem, including MyXL, has achieved 55% penetration among 32.2 million users, enhancing customer loyalty and revenue generation opportunities. We maintain BUY with a target price of IDR2,900, offering 18.80% upside potential and implying EV/EBITDA of 4.75x/4.70x for FY24F/FY25F. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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INTP: Driving Margin Growth Toward a Promising 2025

20 Nov 2024
INTP achieved revenue of IDR5.20 trillion in 3Q24 (+28.54% QoQ; +4.81% YoY), with cumulative revenue reaching IDR13.32 trillion until 9M24, driven by a 9.4% YoY increase in domestic cement sales volume. Gross profit margin improved to 34.35% in 3Q24 (vs 27.66% in 2Q24), supported by efficiency in energy and labor costs, despite higher finance costs due to the Grobogan Cement acquisition. INTP recorded a net profit of IDR621 billion in 3Q24 (+35.19% QoQ; +2.86% YoY), contributing to a cumulative net profit of IDR1.06 trillion until 9M24, showcasing resilience in a competitive market. Cement demand is expected to grow 1-2.5% in 2025, fueled by government initiatives like the 3 million houses program, the Capital City of the Archipelago (IKN) project, and property sector relaxations, boosting INTP's utilization ratio to 60%. Bulk cement continues to dominate, supported by national strategic projects (PSN) and rising demand from commercial developments such as warehouses, smelters, and housing in new growth areas, while bagged cement faces weaker demand due to low purchasing power. We give rating BUY for INTP with a target price of IDR8,100 (+18.80% upside), implying FY24F/FY25F EV/EBITDA of 8.66x/7.92x. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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AMRT : Continued Expansion Drives Financial Performance

13 Nov 2024
AMRT recorded revenue of IDR88.21 trillion in 9M24, growing 10.24% YoY. The revenue growth was driven by Food segment revenue, which grew 10.52% YoY to IDR62.37 trillion in 9M24 (vs. IDR56.43 trillion in 9M23), while Non-Food segment revenue grew 9.55% YoY to IDR25.85 trillion in 9M24 (vs. IDR23.59 trillion in 9M23). Better non-operating performance offsets higher operating expenses. AMRT's operating expenses increased by 11.98% YoY to IDR14.45 trillion in 9M24 (vs. IDR12.9 trillion in 9M23). Meanwhile, AMRT's non-operating expenses decreased by 79.61% YoY to IDR16 billion in 9M24 (vs. IDR80 billion in 9M23). This condition caused AMRT's net profit to grow 9.79% YoY to IDR2.48 trillion in 9M24 (vs. IDR2.26 trillion in 9M23). Alfagift as an alternative for consumers to shop online, contributed 6.6% to revenue in 9M24. Online sales generated from Alfagift in 9M24 grew by more than 45% YoY, signaling AMRT's efforts to increase revenue. The store network continues to increase. From January to September 2024, AMRT added 945 stores, consisting of 652 company-owned stores and 293 Franchise stores, bringing the total to 23,255 stores across Indonesia. We assess that these efforts can potentially improve AMRT's future financial performance. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.94% and Terminal Growth of 7.02%, we estimate AMRT's fair value at IDR3,650 per share (Expected PE at 32.03x and EV/EBITDA at 18.58x in FY24). We give AMRT a Buy rating with a potential upside of 15.89%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ANTM: Advances Amid Challenges: Profit from Gold, Efficiency from Capital Structure

12 Nov 2024
ANTM's revenue grew 39.7% YoY to IDR 43.2 trillion in 9M24, driven by gold sales, but profitability dropped as COGS rose sharply, leading to a decline in gross margin, EBIT, and net income. Commodity price fluctuations positively impact ANTM's revenue, particularly for gold and nickel, with gold prices rising 26.3% YTD to IDR1,539,000 per gram and nickel prices improving to USD15,706 per ton, contributing to a 39.7% YoY revenue growth in 9M24 ANTM reduced its debt-to-equity ratio from 28.2% in 2021 to 5.4% in Q3 2024, while also cutting interest expenses, reflecting a more efficient and conservative debt management strategy. ANTM’s revenue is projected to reach IDR51.8 trillion in FY24, driven by strong gold and nickel demand, with nickel benefiting from increased use in electric vehicle batteries, while concerns over a U.S. recession from a slowing labor market and high debt-to-GDP may push investors toward gold, boosting ANTM’s performance. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method, we estimate ANTM’s fair value at IDR 1,750 (14.12x expected P/E for FY24F). Considering ANTM’s fair value, we assign a buy rating with a potential upside of approximately 13.3% . By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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CTRA : Well Diversified Portfolio

06 Nov 2024
Net profit grew 11.99% yoy to IDR1.3 trillion in 9M24. Revenue rose 8% yoy to IDR7.1 trillion in 9M24. CTRA recorded marketing sales of IDR8.7 trillion in 9M24, equivalent to 78% of the FY24F marketing sales target. This achievement continues the upward trend in 2023, where CTRA recorded its highest marketing sales. A geographically diversified product portfolio is CTRA's advantage. As of 9M24, CTRA has 89 projects in 34 cities in Indonesia. Management targets marketing sales to reach IDR11.1 trillion (+9% yoy). We estimate that CTRA can record revenue growth of 9% yoy to IDR10.1 trillion and net profit of +10% yoy in FY24F. Using Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods, we estimate CTRA's fair value at 1570 (15.46x expected P/E FY24F and 35% discount to NAV). Considering CTRA's fair price, we give CTRA a buy rating with a potential upside of 31.54% By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ICBP: Revenue Growth Accompanied by Improved Non-Operational Performance

06 Nov 2024
ICBP recorded a revenue of IDR55.49 trillion in 9M24, growing 8.14% YoY. ICBP's revenue growth in 9M24 was in line with revenue growth across all operating segments, with the most significant increase in the Food Seasonings segment at 15.75% YoY. Better non-operating performance boosted net profit in 9M24. ICBP's net profit grew 202% QoQ or 15.57% YoY to Rp9.37 trillion in 9M24 (vs. Rp1.65 trillion in 2Q24; Rp8.11 trillion in 9M23). ICBP's net profit was in line with the improvement in its non-operating performance mainly due to the appreciation of Rupiah against US$, which enabled ICBP to reverse its loss on foreign exchange in 2Q24 to gain on foreign exchange in 3Q24. Potentially benefiting from the Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) program. The program can potentially benefit food and beverage issuers, especially those related to processed foods such as milk, seasonings, and their supporters. From January-September 2024, the segment's revenue growth reached 15.75% YoY to Rp3.3 trillion (vs. Rp2.85 trillion in January-September 2023) in line with the Makan Bergizi Gratis trial has been ongoing in several schools. The government plans to implement an excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in packaging in 2025. We assess that the impact of the excise policy will be insignificant to ICBP's sales performance, especially for the beverage segment, which only contributed around 2.29% to ICBP's total sales in 9M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.42% and Terminal Growth of 2.49%, we estimate ICBP's fair value at IDR13,340 per share (Expected PE at 15.29x and EV/EBITDA at 9.90x in FY24). Therefore, we give Hold rating on ICBP with a higher target and potential upside of 8.24%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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INDF : Consumer Branded Product Segment Drives Revenue in 9M24

06 Nov 2024
INDF's revenue grew 11.86% QoQ or 3.64% YoY to IDR86.9 trillion in 9M24. INDF's revenue growth in 9M24 was driven by the revenue of the Consumer Branded Product (CBP) segment, which rose 9.14% QoQ or 8.38% YoY to IDR55.57 trillion. However, three other segments, namely Bogasari, Agribusiness, and Distribution, experienced revenue decline in 9M24. All operating segments recorded operating profit growth. All three of INDF's operating segments could still record operating profit growth despite sales pressure in 9M24 (Table 3). Agribusiness segment recorded the most significant operating profit growth of 63.74% YoY to Rp1.88 trillion (vs. 1.15 trillion in 9M23). Rising Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices drove the Agribusiness segment's operating profit growth in 9M24. From January to September 2024, the average CPO price increased by 3.78% YoY to MYR4,006/ton. We assess that the Agribusiness segment has attractive prospects going forward, along with the new government's targets and policies that could potentially benefit this segment. INDF's net profit growth in 9M24 was driven by improved non-operating performance. During 9M24, INDF's net profit reached Rp12.29 trillion, growing 180% QoQ or 25.33% YoY. This growth was driven by the strengthening of the Rupiah against the US$ so that INDF could reverse the loss on foreign exchange in 2Q24 into profit on foreign exchange in 3Q24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.58% and Terminal Growth of 2.75%, we estimate INDF's fair value at IDR8,196 per share (Expected PE at 6.04x and EV/EBITDA at 3.90x in FY24). Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on INDF with a higher target and potential upside of 10.01%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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