PGEO: Clean and Green Profit in Ring of Fire
05 Feb 2024
Indonesia aims to be a net-zero carbon country by 2060. To support the plan, the government released Perpres No. 112/2022 to accelerate renewable energy.
Indonesia is the second largest installed geothermal in the world, producing 2,356MW, consisting of 14.6% of global production.
PGEO using IPO's fund for 85% as CAPEX to reach 1GW of its production by 2025
PGEO has a policy to pay dividends below 50% of its net income.
PGEO has a pricing policy anchoring CPI and PPI USA for the price.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.24% and Terminal Growth of 4.78%, we estimate PGEO's fair value at 1,657 (25x expected P/E). Based on PGEO's fair price and potential upside of 24.57%, we recommend a buy rating for PGEO.
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ANTM: Despite declining revenue in 9M23, there was an increase in net profit
29 Jan 2024
>ANTM's net profit increased by 8.44% YoY to IDR2.85 trillion in 9M23, despite a decrease in revenue of 8.27% YoY to IDR30.89 trillion compared to 9M22's IDR33.68 trillion.
>The most significant contribution to product sales came from gold sales of Rp19.29 trillion, or 62.43% of total sales.
>Despite fluctuating commodity prices, the Company reduced its operating expenses by 15.20% YoY to IDR2.75 trillion in 9M23, compared to IDR3.24 trillion in the same period the previous year.
>In 9M23, the Company produced 908 kg (29,193 troy oz) of gold from its mines and sold 19,460 kilograms (625,654 troy oz).
>The Company is collaborating with Ningbo Contemporary Brunp Lygend Co Ltd (CBL) to expedite the development of new renewable energy ventures.
>Sales growth is expected to decline by -2.14% in FY2023F. We further expect sales growth to normalize to 12.23% by FY2027F, which is still relatively high compared to the average of recent years due to the potential for additional production capacity and new product mix.
>Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.72% and Terminal Growth of 5.01%, we estimate ANTM's fair value at 2,292 (20.29x expected P/E). Based on ANTM's fair price and potential upside of 39.34%, we recommend a buy rating for ANTM.
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POWR : Reheating Indonesia’s Industry after Covid-19
09 Jan 2024
POWR : Reheating Indonesia’s Industry after Covid-19
>Back to pra pandemic electricity level consumption.
>The data center saw the biggest increase in energy consumption.
>Green path to sustainable energy.
>Big spare of net capacity factor.
>Long-term debt maturity in 2026.
>POWR has a stable Dividend Payout Ratio (DOPR).
>We considered some recent conditions that probably affecting the company.
>Using Discounted Free Cash Flow with Required Return as 6.80% and 4.7x EV/EBITDA Multiple Exit as the terminal value. We consider that POWR has potential upside 38%, that we attach buy rating for POWR.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
- Disclaimer On -
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BBCA : BBCA’s Advantage Includes the Highest CASA and Lowest CoF
02 Jan 2024
>BBCA's net profit increased 26% yoy to IDR 36.4 trillion in 9M23.This growth was in line with the growth in NII (+21.3%) yoy and a decrease in provision costs (-41.5%) yoy.
>BBCA's credit quality remains healthy despite high credit growth. BBCA recorded gross Non-Performing Loans (NPL) falling 20 bps to 2.0% yoy in 9M23.
>Consistently records the highest CASA ratio compared to peers in the last three years.
>Lowest Cost of Funds (CoF) compared to peers amidst high-interest rates.
>BBCA will optimize Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) in 2024F, accompanied by a decrease in Loan at Risk (LaR) in 2023.
>BBCA is developing Two flagship mobile apps, myBCA and BCAmobile.
>Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.14% and Terminal Growth of 7.97%, we estimate the fair value of BBCA at 10,718 (26.97x expected P/E).
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
- Disclaimer On -
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BMRI : Pertumbuhan Kredit yang Solid Menopang Laba Bersih BMRI
22 Des 2023
>Laba bersih BMRI naik 25% yoy menjadi Rp25.23 triliun di 6M23.
>Pertumbuhan Kredit BMRI tetap terjaga di level 12% dengan Gross NPL terendah dibandingkan peers.
>CASA tumbuh 12.60% yoy di 6M23.
>Target pertumbuhan kredit oleh manajemen BMRI pada rentang 10% hingga 12% di FY23.
>Menggunakan metode Discounted Cash Flow dengan Required Return sebesar 10.57% dan Terminal Growth sebesar 5.81%, kami memperkirakan nilai wajar BMRI di 6,530 (13.04x expected P/E).
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BBRI : Pertumbuhan Segmen Mikro dan Ultra Mikro
22 Des 2023
>Laba bersih BBRI naik 18.80% yoy menjadi Rp29.56 triliun di 6M23.
>BBRI menjadi Bank dengan jumlah penyaluran kredit tertinggi di 6M23.
>CASA tumbuh 10.10% yoy di 6M23.
>Kredit Umum Pedesaan (Kupedes) mencatkan kenaikan 30% yoy pada 6M23.
>Potensi pertumbuhan segmen Mikro dan Ultra Mikro.
>Menggunakan metode Discounted Cash Flow dengan Required Return sebesar 11.07% dan Terminal Growth sebesar 5.48%, kami memperkirakan nilai wajar BBRI di 6,272 (16.79x expected P/E).
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BNGA : Pertumbuhan CASA ratio dan Selective Loan menjadi Fokus BNGA di 2024
22 Des 2023
>Laba bersih BNGA tumbuh 27.6% yoy menjadi Rp4.9 triliun di 9M23.
>BNGA merevisi turun panduan Cost of Credit (COC) menjadi 1.1%-1.2% di 9M23.
>Pertumbuhan kredit diiringi perbaikan kualitas aset di 9M23.
>CASA tetap tumbuh dalam 5 tahun terakhir.
>Nilai transaksi OCTO mobile tumbuh 97.3% yoy di 9M23.
>Pertumbuhan CASA rasio serta selective loan growth menjadi fokus BNGA.
>Menggunakan metode Dividend Discount Model kami mendapatkan harga wajar BNGA sebesar 1,946 (9.12x expected PER). Sehingga kami memberikan rating buy untuk BNGA dengan potential upside 14.47%.
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