AMRT : Strengthen Ready-to-Eat (RTE) Products Through Lawson Acquisition

17 Apr 2025
AMRT booked revenue growth of 10.55% YoY to IDR118.23 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by a 10.08% YoY increase in sales of the food segment to IDR83.28 trillion and an 11.7% YoY increase in the non-food segment to IDR34.95 trillion in FY24. AMRT's net profit grew 20.71% QoQ in 4Q24. The growth was driven by higher revenue and operating cost efficiency in 4Q24. This operating efficiency was mainly due to the decrease in selling and distribution expenses by 5.89% QoQ to IDR4.72 trillion in 4Q24, which caused operating expenses to decrease by 2.6% QoQ to IDR5 trillion in 4Q24. Continued expansion supported FY24 performance. AMRT's stores increased by 967 stores to 23,277 stores in FY24. In 2024, AMRT added 3 new distribution centers to improve supply chain efficiency and plans to add 2 new distribution centers in 2025. AMRT acquired all the shares of PT Lancar Wiguna Sejahtera (LWS), which is owned by MIDI. The acquisition is expected to expand and strengthen AMRT's Ready-to-Eat (RTE) food product category, as LWS currently operates 374 Lawson stores that sell mainly RTE products to consumers. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 6.85% and Terminal Growth of 3.09%, we estimate AMRT's fair value at IDR2,570 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on AMRT with a lower target and potential upside of 31.46%.
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CTRA: The geographic diversification of CTRA’s portfolio remains a competitive advantage

17 Apr 2025
Net profit grew 15% YoY to IDR2.3 trillion in FY24. Revenue rose 21% YoY to IDR11.2 trillion in FY24. The revenue growth was driven by a 25% YoY growth in the property development segment and +7% YoY in the recurring segment in FY24. A geographically diversified product portfolio is the advantage of CTRA's residential segment. Until FY24, CTRA had 89 projects in 34 cities in Indonesia. In FY24, Greater Jakarta contributed 40% of marketing sales, followed by Greater Surabaya 23% and Sumatra 19%. With this diversification, CTRA can minimize concentration risk. CTRA's marketing sales grew 8% YoY to IDR11 trillion in FY24. This achievement continues the upward trend in 2023, where CTRA recorded the highest marketing sales at IDR10.2 trillion. CTRA's average marketing sales growth has reached 14% in the last three years. We estimate CTRA's net profit can grow 9% YoY in FY25F. CTRA's solid bottom line performance is supported by VAT incentives borne by the government, loan-tovalue discounts, and relatively stable Non-Performing Loan conditions in the property sector. We maintain our buy rating for CTRA, which has an estimated fair value of 1320 (previously 1570) and a potential upside of 61.96%. The fair value is obtained using the Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods and reflects 10.77x expected P/E FY25F and a 55% discount to NAV. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BSDE: BSD City is expected to be a key driver of marketing sales FY25F

15 Apr 2025
Net profit grew 117% YoY to IDR4.9 trillion in FY24. This growth is in line with the increase in revenue of 19.6% YoY to IDR13.8 trillion in FY24. In addition, the revenue margin also increased. Land and building sales remain the segment with the highest margin in FY24. Gross profit margin (GPM) from land and building sales was 66%, followed by the water management segment at 64% and Construction at 59%. BSDE marketing sales grew 2% YoY to IDR 9.7 trillion and exceeded the target of IDR 9.5 trillion in FY24. For FY25, BSDE is targeting marketing sales of IDR10 trillion (+3% YoY), which is contributed by the residential segment (51%), commercial (34%), and others (15%). The BSD city residential segment, as the flagship project of BSDE, is targeted tocontribute 18% of the total FY25F marketing sales target. We estimate that revenue will grow 8% YoY to reach IDR 15 trillion in FY25E. The continued implementation of loan-to-value (LTV) discounts, government-covered VAT incentives in 2025, and BSDE's strong reputation in project development are expected to be key growth drivers We maintain our buy rating for BSDE, which has an estimated fair value of 1185 (previously 1425) and a potential upside of 50.78%. The fair value is derived using the discounted cash flow method and net asset value revaluation, which reflects an expected P/E of 7.48x FY25F and a discount to NAV of 65%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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MTEL : Steady Core, Accelerating Edge

15 Apr 2025
MTEL recorded revenue of IDR 2.49 trillion in 4Q24 (+5.14% QoQ; +7.25% YoY), bringing total FY24 revenue to IDR 9.31 trillion (+8.30% YoY). This result exceeded our estimates (Phintas: 103%) but was slightly below market consensus (Cons: 96%). Growth was primarily driven by a strong rebound in the fiber segment, which surged 40.40% YoY (+114.14% QoQ), reaching IDR 212 billion in 4Q24. Meanwhile, the tower leasing segment saw more modest growth, with revenue reaching IDR 1.96 trillion (+0.05% QoQ; +2.45% YoY). EBITDA for 4Q24 came in at IDR 2.03 trillion (+3.03% QoQ; +8.65% YoY), boosting total FY24 EBITDA to IDR 7.70 trillion (+11.18% YoY). The EBITDA margin expanded to 82.68% from 80.53% in FY23, reflecting solid operational efficiency. Net Profit for FY24 was IDR 2.11 trillion (+0.38% YoY), in line with our forecast (Phintas: 99%), although slightly below market consensus (Cons: 88%). MTEL continues to show operational resilience despite industry consolidation. The company recorded a solid +4.28% YoY growth in tenants, reaching 59.87 thousand tenants (vs. 57.41 thousand in FY23). Fiber network expansion saw significant growth, rising +56.94% YoY to 51.04 thousand km. The tenancy ratio stood at 1.52x (vs. 1.51x in FY23). MTEL operates 39 thousand towers, with 16 thousand towers in Java (41% of the portfolio) and a tenancy ratio of 1.64x. The rest of the towers are located outside Java (59% of the portfolio), with a lower tenancy ratio of 1.44x. While the tower industry is facing challenges due to consolidation, particularly with the EXCL-FREN merger, the impact on MTEL’s performance is expected to be limited, as EXCL’s contribution to MTEL’s revenue is relatively small (FY24: 12.16% vs. 4-year average of 10.58%). For FY25E, we forecast MTEL to achieve a revenue of IDR 9.58 trillion, driven by a strong tower leasing segment (IDR 7.84 trillion). This growth will be supported by a recovery in demand for collocation services and build-to-suit (B2S) offerings, particularly from tenants like IOH. MTEL has allocated a capex budget of IDR 5.4 trillion for FY25E, targeting an additional 2.5 thousand new tenants (net after EXCL-FREN consolidation). MTEL has set a target of expanding 10 thousand km of fiber through both organic and inorganic strategies. We estimate fiber business revenue to grow +3.65% YoY to IDR 579 billion in FY25E. EBITDA is expected to reach IDR 7.88 trillion in FY25E, with margins remaining strong at around 82.31% to 82.51% for FY25-F27F. Despite the moderate growth outlook and elevated interest expenses, we expect net profit to grow by +3.90% YoY to IDR 3.90 trillion in FY25E. We maintain our BUY rating for MTEL with a revised target price of IDR 700 (previous: IDR 720), reflecting an EV/EBITDA of 9.7x for FY25F. Despite headwinds from industry consolidation, MTEL’s long-term prospects remain positive, underpinned by a solid capital structure, low leverage, and growth potential from the fiber business. Downside Risks: 1)Weakening tenant demand, particularly for new build-to-suit (B2S) projects and collocation. 2) Pressure from high interest rates, which could affect profitability. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research – Disclaimer On – Contact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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INDF : Solid Operating Performance Maintain INDF’s Profitability in FY24

14 Apr 2025
INDF booked revenue growth of 3.66% YoY to IDR115.78 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by an increase in branded consumer products (CBP) segment sales by 6.88% YoY to IDR73.32 trillion in FY24. On a quarterly basis, CBP segment sales decreased 5.52% QoQ to IDR17.75 trillion in 4Q24 due to purchasing power pressure. We estimate CBP segment sales to potentially recover in 1Q25, driven by increased demand during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr period. INDF booked operating profit by segment growth of 16% YoY in FY24. The growth was driven by Agribusiness segment operating profit, which increased significantly by 88.28% QoQ to IDR1.78 trillion in 4Q24 so that cumulatively, Agribusiness segment operating profit increased by 73% YoY to IDR3.66 trillion in FY24. This increase was in line with the high CPO price in 4Q24, which caused the Agribusiness segment's sales to increase. INDF's net profit increased by 13.78% YoY to IDR13.07 trillion in FY24. The increase in net profit was in line with solid operating performance driven by an increase in operating profit of all INDF's business segments on a quarterly and cumulative basis. We estimate INDF's net profit to potentially increase by 5.57% YoY to IDR13.8 trillion in FY25F. This estimate aligns with the potential for stable operational performance so that profitability can be maintained. In the future, fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate need to be considered as they could potentially affect INDF's profitability. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.77% and Terminal Growth of 2.95%, we estimate INDF's fair value at IDR9,000 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on INDF with a higher target and potential upside of 30.43%.
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PWON: Recurring income supports PWON’s profit growth

14 Apr 2025
PWON's revenue grew 8% YoY to IDR6.7 trillion in FY24. This achievement was driven by recurring income, which grew 11% YoY to IDR5.2 trillion in FY24, contributing to 78% of total revenue. We estimate PWON's revenue can reach IDR7 trillion and net profit can reach IDR2.4 trillion (+15% YoY). PWON's diverse property business portfolio minimizes performance fluctuations due to high interest rates. Residential properties, shopping centers, hotels, and offices are PWON's portfolio. Pakuwon Residence Bekasi, Pakuwon Mall Surabaya, and new landbanks in Semarang have the potential to support PWON's performance. After successfully selling 92% of units in Tower Amor (condominium) by the end of 2024, PWON has started marketing Tower Bella, one of three condominiums to be built in Pakuwon Residence Bekasi. PWON's marketing sales are targeted to reach IDR1.8 trillion +15.8% YoY in FY25. This target is in line with PWON's achievements throughout FY24 and the progress of ongoing projects supported by ongoing VAT incentives borne by the government. We maintain our buy rating for PWON, which has an estimated fair value of 535 (9.38x expected P/E FY26F and 70% discount to NAV) and a potential upside of 62.12%. The fair value is obtained using the Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ICBP : Solid Operating Performance Amidst Rupiah Exchange Rate Pressure

11 Apr 2025
ICBP booked revenue growth of 6.9% YoY to IDR72.59 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by increased sales in all business segments. The Food Seasonings segment booked the highest increase of 17% YoY to IDR4.3 trillion, followed by the Nutrition and Special Foods segment by 11.4% YoY to IDR1.36 trillion, and the Snack Foods segment increased by 6.9% YoY to IDR4.54 trillion in FY24. In 2025, ICBP will continue to drive sales and volume growth while maintaining profitability. In the future, we expect ICBP's revenue to potentially recover in line with the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr period in 1Q25. ICBP's operating profit increased by 13.44% YoY to IDR16.32 trillion in FY24. The growth aligned with lower operating expenses due to lower foreign exchange losses from operating activities. Operating profit growth in all segments also contributed to the increase in operating profit in FY24. Cumulatively, ICBP's segment operating profit increased by 9.59% YoY to IDR16.19 trillion in FY24. We estimate ICBP's net profit to potentially increase by 6.77% YoY to IDR9.41 trillion in FY25F. This estimate aligns with the potential of solid operating performance to maintain profitability. On a quarterly basis, ICBP booked a net loss of IDR559 billion in 4Q24, bringing cumulative net profit to IDR8.81 trillion in FY24. The loss was mainly due to foreign exchange losses from financing activities of Rp2.11 trillion in 4Q24. In the future, the risk that needs to be considered is related to fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate, which could potentially affect ICBP's bottom line. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.48% and Terminal Growth of 2.99%, we estimate ICBP's fair value at IDR13,275 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on ICBP with a lower target and potential upside of 32.75%.
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TOWR: Moderate Outlook With Emerging Growth Drivers

11 Apr 2025
TOWR booked revenue of IDR 3.29 trillion in 4Q24 (–0.25% QoQ; +8.80% YoY), pushing FY24 revenue to IDR 12.74 trillion (+8.48% YoY), broadly in line with consensus (Cons: 102%) and slightly above our estimate (Phintas: 106.26%). Tower leasing segment—its largest contributor—posted modest growth of IDR 8.52 trillion (+1.44% YoY), reflecting lingering impacts from the Indosat-Hutchison merger. In contrast, revenue growth was primarily driven by the non-tower segments. FTTH & Connectivity surged to IDR 2.14 trillion (+35.21% YoY), supported by a +45.80% YoY jump in Home Connect and +33.30% YoY in service activation. Fiber revenue also posted solid growth, reaching IDR 2.07 trillion (+18.09% YoY), in line with the fiber rollout expansion to 217 thousand km (+19.34% YoY). Revenue mix is shifting, with tower leasing now contributing 66.92% (vs 71.57% in FY23), while fiber and non-tower segments grew to 18.09% and 16.78%, respectively. EBITDA margin slightly declined to 84.02% (vs 85.00% in FY23). Interest expense rose +9.78% YoY to IDR 3.14 trillion due to increased debt post-acquisition of IBST.IJ, pushing Net Debt/EBITDA to 4.80x (vs 4.46x in FY23) and DER to 2.74x. Despite financial pressure, net profit reached IDR 888 billion in 4Q24 (+5.38% QoQ; +7.25% YoY), with FY24 net profit totaling IDR 3.73 trillion (+29.28% YoY), in line with estimates (Phintas: 99.44%; Cons: 98.87%). Operator consolidation resurfaces as a key overhang, as seen with EXCL–FREN merger. Notably, EXCL was TOWR’s largest tenant in FY24 (31.68% of revenue), which makes this merger a material risk. Historical precedent from the Indosat-Hutchison merger in 2022 showed a -2.37% YoY tower revenue decline in FY23 before a +1.44% YoY recovery in FY24. We expect tower leasing revenue to slightly contract over FY25–27F (–1.02%/+2.29%/+2.70%) with declining contribution to 64.59%/64.25%/64.08%. We forecast total revenue growth to remain in the low-single-digit range over FY25–27F (+2.55%/+2.83%/+2.97%), led by continued strength in fiber segment (+9.54%/+6.72%/+6.03%) and FTTH/activation services (+10.00% YoY). EBITDA is expected to grow modestly at +1.95%/+3.08%/+3.21%, with margin slightly trending down to 83.52%/83.73%/83.92% (Mgmt guide: 83% FY25E). Net profit is projected to remain flat in FY25E (+0.46% YoY) at IDR 3.35 trillion, as topline softness and elevated interest costs persist. Net margin may compress to 25.65% in FY25E. We maintain our BUY rating on TOWR with a lower TP of IDR 650 (Prev: IDR 860), implying 7.5x EV/EBITDA FY25F. While tower segment momentum is expected to moderate due to telco consolidation headwinds, long-term growth visibility is underpinned by diversification into fiber and digital services. Backed by robust infrastructure, we believe these segments will increasingly act as growth engines. Downside risks: (1) Elevated interest rates that could pressure profitability; (2) Intensifying competition in fiber broadband. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research – Disclaimer On – Contact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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INTP : Post-Seasonal Weakness, Catalysts Begin to Align

10 Apr 2025
INTP reported FY24 revenue of IDR 18.55 trillion (+3.34% YoY), broadly in line with our expectations (Phintas: 104%) and consensus (Cons: 99%). Despite softer growth in 4Q24 due to seasonal factors such as regional elections and increased rainfall, the company managed to maintain volume growth, supported by the consolidation of Semen Grobogan. Total cement sales volume reached 18.92 million tons (+8.35% YoY), underscoring INTP’s ability to sustain operational scale in a still-fragmented and oversupplied market. INTP recorded a robust net profit of IDR 2.01 trillion in FY24 (+2.96% YoY), surpassing both our and consensus estimates (Phintas: 141%; Cons: 125%). The significant quarterly jump in 4Q24 earnings (+53.25% QoQ) further reinforces INTP’s operational leverage and margin resilience, even in the face of softer seasonal demand. INTP’s gross profit margin (GPM) expanded to 37.83% in 4Q24 (vs 34.35% in 3Q24), reflecting stronger contribution from higher-margin tier-1 cement products. This margin improvement was further supported by disciplined cost control, particularly in fuel and power costs which declined to IDR 1.36 trillion (-6.96% YoY) in 4Q24. The company’s increasing adoption of alternative fuels—reaching 21.4% usage in FY24 (vs 18.3% in FY23)—demonstrates a tangible shift toward more efficient and environmentally responsible operations. Despite continued structural overcapacity in the cement industry (utilization rate: ~53%), we believe INTP still has moderate growth potential in FY25–26. This is underpinned by the anticipated progress of the government’s 3-million-housing development initiative, which could provide a much-needed demand tailwind. We conservatively project domestic sales volume growth of +0.60% YoY in FY25F and +1.60% YoY in FY26F, supported by a moderate recovery in pricing (blended ASP growth: +2.00% in FY25F, +1.50% in FY26F). Revenue is expected to grow at a low-single-digit pace (1.35%/2.95%), while net profit is projected to dip slightly in FY25F (–3.0% YoY) before recovering in FY26F (+4.0% YoY), backed by cost efficiencies and better fuel mix optimization. We maintain our BUY rating on INTP with a lower TP of IDR 6,500 (from IDR 8,100), implying FY25F/FY26F EV/EBITDA forward 12-M of 5.43x/4.79x and EV/ton of USD 62.71/USD 57.08. Despite the downward revision, valuation remains attractive as INTP is currently trading at a 6-year trailing EV/EBITDA of 3.38x and EV/ton of USD 35.70 reflecting steep discounts of 71% and 74% to its 6-year historical average of 11.79x and USD 135.88. We see room for performance improvement post low season effect (4Q24–1Q25), supported by cost efficiency, higher alternative fuel usage, and expected demand from national housing and infrastructure projects, paving the way for gradual margin recovery. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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CPIN : Expansion Plan Potentially Maintain CPIN’s Performance in FY25

26 Mar 2025
CPIN booked revenue growth of 9.51% YoY to IDR67.48 trillion in FY24. The revenue growth was driven by significant growth in Day Old Chick (DOC) segment sales by 37.39% YoY, Processed Chicken segment by 19.31% YoY, and Broiler segment by 11.3% YoY. We expect CPIN's DOC, Processed Chicken, and Broiler segments' sales performance can potentially continue its positive trend in 1Q25 in line with the potential increase in demand during the Ramadhan period and ahead of Eid al-Fitr. CPIN's Broiler segment booked an operating profit of IDR2.03 trillion in FY24, the highest since 2019. The segment's operating profit was driven by a 9.96% QoQ or 10.38% YoY increase in the average price of broilers in 4Q24 to IDR20,174/kg, which resulted in the broiler segment's sales increased by 9.75% QoQ or 27.52% YoY to IDR9.28 trillion in 4Q24. CPIN's net profit increased by 60.11% YoY to IDR3.71 trillion in FY24. In addition to positive revenue performance in FY24, CPIN's net profit was driven by a decrease in operating expenses by 15.31% QoQ or 4.46% YoY to IDR4.23 trillion in FY24 as a result of a gain on changes in fair value of biological assets as well as other operating income. CPIN's financial income also increased by 56.58% YoY to IDR44 billion in FY24 from interest earned on current accounts and deposits, mainly on call deposits. CPIN Business Plan 2025. CPIN plans to build an animal feed factory in South Sulawesi to increase production capacity and expand its marketing network in Eastern Indonesia. We assess that this plan can potentially improve the performance of CPIN's animal feed segment, which experienced a decline in operating profit by 12.67% YoY to IDR3.98 trillion in FY24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.67% and Terminal Growth of 4%, we estimate CPIN's fair value at IDR5,400 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on CPIN with a lower target and potential upside of 22.73%.
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