MYOR : Strong Positioning in Global Market

26 Jun 2024
MYOR's export share amounted to 36.12% of total sales in 3M24. MYOR's export sales amounted to Rp3.16 trillion or contributed 36.12% of MYOR's total sales in 3M24. When compared to its peers, MYOR's export portion is the largest, which shows that it has a strong positioning in the global market and has advantages over national fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. Net sales grew a limited 3.65% YoY in 3M24. MYOR's sales were recorded at IDR8.76 trillion in 3M24 or grew a limited 3.65% YoY from IDR8.45 trillion in 3M23. The sales growth was supported by a significant increase in the packaged processed food segment of 10.18% YoY. Meanwhile, the packaged processed beverages segment grew limitedly by 1.10% YoY. MYOR recorded a net profit of Rp1.13 trillion, growing significantly by 53.31% YoY during 3M24. The profit growth was driven by interest income, fixed asset sales, and foreign exchange gains that grew significantly. As a result, profit before tax earned by MYOR grew significantly by 53.76% YoY to Rp1.40 trillion in 3M24 from Rp915 billion in 3M23. MYOR is facing some high raw material prices. Some of MYOR's main raw materials for producing its products are Cocoa and Coffee, most of which are obtained domestically. During 2024, the prices of both raw materials have increased. We assess if the increase in raw material prices increases continuously and cannot be adequately addressed by MYOR, it will potentially erode the company's profit margin in the future. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 7.21% and Terminal Growth of 4.55%, we estimate MYOR's fair value at IDR2,950 per share (Expected PE at 17.29x and EV/EBITDA at 10.59x in FY24). We give MYOR a Buy rating with potential upside of 25.53%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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CTRA : Well Diversified Portfolio

21 Jun 2024
>Net profit grew 17.1% yoy to IDR 413 billion in 3M24. Revenue rose 8.7% yoy to IDR 2.3 trillion in 3M24. >CTRA recorded marketing sales of IDR 3.3 trillion in 3M24, equivalent to 30% of the FY24F marketing sales target. >A geographically diversified product portfolio is CTRA's advantage. As of 3M24, CTRA has 88 projects in 34 cities in Indonesia. >Consistent growth of Recurring Income. The majority of CTRA's Recurring Income comes from shopping centers (37%) and health facilities (32%). >Management targets marketing sales to reach IDR 11.1 trillion (+9% yoy). CTRA's solid bottom line performance is accompanied by a stable debt condition (net gearing ratio –11.1%). >Using the Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods we estimate the fair value of CTRA at 1390 (13.44x expected P/E FY24F and 40% discount to NAV). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BSDE : Township, Has the Potential to Support BSDE Income Again

05 Jun 2024
Net profit grew 56.23% yoy to IDR 1.5 trillion in 3M24. This growth is in line with an increase in revenue of 31.25% to IDR 3.8 trillion in 3M24 compared to the increase in Cost of Goods Sold, which only increased 9.56% yoy to IDR 1.1 trillion. Sustainable and integrated product portfolio. After the COVID-19 pandemic,people increasingly want housing that supports a healthy and environmentally friendly lifestyle (Asia Pacific 2023, JLL). BSD City is designated as a National Strategic Project (PSN). This project is being carried out with an area of around 59.6 hectares. BSDE marketing sales exceeded the marketing sales target in FY23. BSDE posted marketing sales of IDR 9.5 trillion (+8% yoy), which reflects 108% of the FY23 marketing sales target (IDR 8.8 trillion). Net profit is projected to return above IDR 2 trillion in FY24F. During the election period 3M24, BSDE recorded growth in marketing sales (3% yoy) and revenue (31% yoy). Using the discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate the fair value of BSDE to be 1300 (8.64x expected P/E FY24F and 67% discount to NAV). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ICBP : Better Revenue Growth Potential

03 Jun 2024
ICBP recorded net revenue of IDR19.92 trillion during 3M24, a limited growth of 4.07%. Although ICBP’s revenue growth was limited, ICBP was able to record an Operating Profit Margin of 24.69% during 3M24. Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) revenue was overshadowed by high inflation rate in some of its operating regions. During 2023, PCL recorded revenue of IDR16.4 trillion, growing 10.92% YoY. This growth was lower than the sales growth in 2022, which reached 19.79% YoY. However, ICBP could still post a solid Operating Profit Margin in 2023 at 21.19%. Better than the Operating Profit Margin in 2022, which amounted to 20.65%. The acquisition of Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) in 2020 also contributed to ICBP’s revenue growth. Based on data from the World Instant Noodles Association (WINA), demand for instant noodles in PCL's operating regions tends to increase from 2019-2023 such as Nigeria (CAGR +9.19%), Egypt (CAGR +30.99%), Turkey (CAGR +29.08%), and Kenya (CAGR +21.67%). We believe it will positively impact for ICBP's revenue due to PCL's strong market share in the region. Profit margins have the potential to stabilize in line with the softening of raw material prices. If CPO and Wheat prices stabilize more in the future, it will potentially boost the company's profit margin stability. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.49% and Terminal Growth of 2%, we estimate ICBP’s fair value at IDR12,504 per share (Expected PE at 14.91x and EV/EBITDA at 9.28x in FY24). We give ICBP a Buy rating with a potential upside of 28.25%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ISAT : Transforming into a Tech Powerhouse

31 Mei 2024
ISAT's 1Q24 revenue rose 16% YoY (1% QoQ) to Rp13.84 trillion. ARPU increased 14% YoY (-3% QoQ) to Rp37.5k, subscribers grew 2% YoY (2% QoQ) to 100.80 thousand. 2G and 4G BTS expanded by 11% and 21% QoQ, respectively, outside Java, driving operating expenses up 15.50% YoY to Rp11.10 trillion. Nonetheless, EBITDA grew 22.10% YoY to Rp6.5 trillion, with a 47% margin, resulting in a net profit of IDR1.3 trillion (39% YoY, -8% QoQ). Management allocated ~Rp12 trillion for capex, focusing on expanding the network in eastern Indonesia. In 1Q24, ISAT added 32k new 4G BTS towers, totaling 184k. This efficient expansion enhances the 4G network, improving customer experience. Management targets an EBITDA margin of ~50%, with revenue growth expected to surpass industry averages. ISAT entered a $200 million partnership with Nvidia, cementing its cloud service position in Indonesia. It also partnered with Netcracker for IT infrastructure upgrades and collaborated with Mastercard and Cisco on cybersecurity. IT Services revenue is expected to reach 5-7% of total revenue from FY24 to FY29. We project ISAT to achieve revenue of IDR 54.63 trillion (+7% YoY) in FY24, mainly driven by a 6.70% CAGR (2024-2029) in the data segment and a 4% CAGR (2024-2029) in subscribers. Operating expenses are estimated to rise by 6% YoY to IDR 43.23 trillion due to expansion efforts, particularly outside Java. EBITDA is estimated at IDR 26.37 trillion with a margin of 48%. With these factors, we anticipate a net profit of IDR 5.19 trillion (+15.32% YoY) in FY24. Using Discounted Free Cash Flow with a Required Return of 9.00% and a terminal growth rate of 3.00% suggests a potential increase of 23.40%, or IDR12,200 per share (implying PBV at 2.04X and PE at 14.54x for FY24F). Therefore, a BUY rating is assigned for ISAT. Risks include: 1) ARPU competition in the low-price segment, 2) potential market share disruption from the EXCL-FREN merger, and 3) potential disruption to the FMC business from the presence of Starlink. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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SMRA: Potential for Post-Election Property Sales Recovery

20 Mei 2024
SMRA's net profit grew 62% yoy to IDR 441 billion in 3M24. This growth aligns with revenue growth to IDR 2.13 trillion in 3M24. The increase in net gearing ratio in 3M24 was relatively limited.This increase is not a significant problem, considering that SMRA's equity value is enormous, and the net gearing ratio still below 50%. SMRA is targeting total marketing sales in FY24F to reach IDR 5 trillion. This target is an increase of 11% compared to FY23F results. Property Vs. Interest Rates. During the high interest rates in 2023, mortgage financing still recorded growth, although limited. After the election is over, property sales have the potential to increase. During the election period, consumers tend to postpone purchasing a house; for example, in 2019, residential property sales experienced slower growth (+1.19% yoy) compared to 2018 growth of 13.95%yoy. Using the discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate the fair value of SMRA to be 705 (10.80x expected P/E FY24F and 50% discount to NAV. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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MTEL : Collocation Growth Driving Profitability

13 Mei 2024
MTEL's revenue surged by 7.33% YoY to IDR2.21 trillion, driven chiefly by the tower leasing segment's 5.40% YoY growth (+7.19% QoQ) to Rp1.84 trillion. The uptick in tower rental was propelled by a significant 16.56% YoY increase (+1.43% QoQ) in collocation, particularly fueled by non-Telkom customers during 1Q24. MTEL witnessed an 8.42% YoY rise in tenants during the same period. This robust performance translated into an EBITDA of Rp1.84 trillion, marking a substantial 39.99% YoY increase (+27.58% QoQ) and resulting in an EBITDA Margin of 83.5% in 1Q24 (vs. 81.5% in 1Q23), culminating in a net profit of Rp521 billion, reflecting a 3.98% YoY growth. MTEL, a leading presence in Southeast Asia with 38,135 towers in Indonesia, added 121 new towers in 1Q24, primarily outside Java, expecting a 7.15% CAGR (2024-2029) in tenant growth, supported by Rp5.6 trillion allocated for capex in 2024, signaling high single-digit revenue and EBITDA growth. We forecast FY24E revenue to IDR9.4 trillion in FY24, primarily fueled by the tower leasing segment's 11.49% CAGR (2024-2029) and the addition of 4k new tenants. Expansion by non-telecom companies will also boost growth in the collocation segment, despite increased depreciation costs. Using the Discounted Free Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 5.8% and Terminal Growth of 3% as terminal value. We assess that MTEL has an upside potential of 25.21% or IDR720 per share (Expected PE at 28x and EV/EBITDA at 10.16x in FY24F); thus, we give a Buy rating to MTEL. However, we need to consider the following risks: 1) Regulatory changes, 2) increased competition from telecommunication and tower operators, 3) economic downturn and rising interest rates may negatively affect MTEL's profitability and tower rental income and squeeze its profit margin.
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BBRI : Strong Financial, Amidst Declining Asset Quality

06 Mei 2024
BBRI recorded a net profit of IDR 15.89 trillion, growing 2.5% yoy in 3M24. This result grew in line with our FY24F estimate (25%).Interest Income grew 17.9% yoy, followed by Net Interest Income, which rose 9.7% yoy. BBRI revised its FY24F Cost of Credit (CoC) guidance, which was better than the 3M24 realization. BBRI recorded an increase in CoC in 3M24 in line with food inflation, which caused a rise in NPL in one of BBRI's most significant revenue contributors. The Allowance for Impairment Losses (CKPN) increase is still lower than in the last two years. CKPN increased 2% QoQ to IDR 79.84 trillion in 3M24. Current Account Savings Account (CASA) grew 7.8% yoy in 3M24. BBRI recorded total third-party funds of IDR 1,416 trillion (12.8% yoy) in 3M24. BBRI has consistently recorded credit growth in the last six years. In 3M24, BBRI credit grew 11% yoy to IDR 1.182 trillion. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 6.89% and Terminal Growth of 4.72%, we estimate BBRI's fair value at 6,165 (14.64x expected P/E FY24F). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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TLKM: Prudent Growth Strategy Amidst Connectivity Boom and Digitalization

24 Apr 2024
TLKM reported revenue growth of 3.71% YoY (1.45% QoQ) to IDR37.43 trillion in 1Q24, driven by an 11.3% YoY increase in the contribution of data, internet and IT services group to IDR22.15 trillion, despite ARPU declining 2.58% QoQ to IDR45.60k in 1Q24. The increase in revenue was followed by an increase in operating expenses by 5.30% YoY, mainly due to an increase in interconnection costs by 22.80% YoY, and employee costs which grew by 10.40% YoY due to the distribution of THR and marketing expenses increased by 4.10% YoY due to promotions ahead of Fasting and Lebaran. By 2024, Management expects revenue growth in the single-digit range while maintaining an EBITDA Margin of between 50-52% in 2024, supported by a surge in domestic connectivity demand. We forecast FY24E revenue to increase to IDR154.82 trillion, driven by revenue growth of 5%-10% and operating cost efficiency down 1%-5%, with net profit growing 8.02% YoY, ARPU stable in the range of ~Rp46-Rp47k. Using Discounted Free Cash Flow method with Required Return of 8.80% and Terminal Growth of 3.00% as terminal value. We assess that TLKM has an upside potential of 41.90% or IDR4,471 per share (Expected PBV at 2.5X and PE at 16.5x in FY24F), thus we give TLKM a BUY rating. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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INCO: Weathering Short-Term Challenges, Poised for Long-Term Growth

03 Apr 2024
In 4Q23, INCO achieved strong revenue growth of 5.5% QoQ to US$294mn, with FY23 revenue totaling US$1,232.3mn, up 4.5% YoY, driven by increased sales and production, despite a decline in Average Selling Price by -12.1% QoQ attributed to fluctuating LME nickel prices. INCO effectively controlled costs in 4Q23, reducing cash costs by 8.1% QoQ to US$8,929/tonne while achieving a significant ~16.7% YoY reduction in cash costs to US$17,329/tonne for FY23, driven by lower coal consumption and decreased Coal ASP. Short-term challenges from nickel prices are expected, but lower costs are poised to drive growth in FY24F, with steady production targets and anticipated decreases in cash costs primarily attributed to lower Fuels & Lubricants and Coal ASP. Adjusted forecasts for Nickel Matte ASP downwards reflect LME nickel price weaknesses, we anticipated 19.9% YoY decrease in revenue to US$170mn for FY24F, leading to a Net Profit Margin (NPM) of 17.28%. INCO anticipates limited near-term growth in FY24E, but remains positioned for strong future expansion driven by robust fundamentals, including the completion of key projects in 2026 focusing on Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) and Ferronickel (FeNi), aimed at meeting Indonesia's growing nickel industry downstream projects. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.62% and Terminal Growth of 9.46%, we estimate INCO’s fair value at IDR4,548 (implying 16.9x / 1.05x expected P/E and P/BV). This outlook is fueled by INCO’s strong fundamentals, including its strong cost competitiveness and promising long-term growth projects in MHP and FeNi. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119055611 IG : phintracosekuritas YT : Phintraco Sekuritas TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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