PWON: Recurring income supports PWON’s profit growth

14 Apr 2025
PWON's revenue grew 8% YoY to IDR6.7 trillion in FY24. This achievement was driven by recurring income, which grew 11% YoY to IDR5.2 trillion in FY24, contributing to 78% of total revenue. We estimate PWON's revenue can reach IDR7 trillion and net profit can reach IDR2.4 trillion (+15% YoY). PWON's diverse property business portfolio minimizes performance fluctuations due to high interest rates. Residential properties, shopping centers, hotels, and offices are PWON's portfolio. Pakuwon Residence Bekasi, Pakuwon Mall Surabaya, and new landbanks in Semarang have the potential to support PWON's performance. After successfully selling 92% of units in Tower Amor (condominium) by the end of 2024, PWON has started marketing Tower Bella, one of three condominiums to be built in Pakuwon Residence Bekasi. PWON's marketing sales are targeted to reach IDR1.8 trillion +15.8% YoY in FY25. This target is in line with PWON's achievements throughout FY24 and the progress of ongoing projects supported by ongoing VAT incentives borne by the government. We maintain our buy rating for PWON, which has an estimated fair value of 535 (9.38x expected P/E FY26F and 70% discount to NAV) and a potential upside of 62.12%. The fair value is obtained using the Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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ICBP : Solid Operating Performance Amidst Rupiah Exchange Rate Pressure

11 Apr 2025
ICBP booked revenue growth of 6.9% YoY to IDR72.59 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by increased sales in all business segments. The Food Seasonings segment booked the highest increase of 17% YoY to IDR4.3 trillion, followed by the Nutrition and Special Foods segment by 11.4% YoY to IDR1.36 trillion, and the Snack Foods segment increased by 6.9% YoY to IDR4.54 trillion in FY24. In 2025, ICBP will continue to drive sales and volume growth while maintaining profitability. In the future, we expect ICBP's revenue to potentially recover in line with the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr period in 1Q25. ICBP's operating profit increased by 13.44% YoY to IDR16.32 trillion in FY24. The growth aligned with lower operating expenses due to lower foreign exchange losses from operating activities. Operating profit growth in all segments also contributed to the increase in operating profit in FY24. Cumulatively, ICBP's segment operating profit increased by 9.59% YoY to IDR16.19 trillion in FY24. We estimate ICBP's net profit to potentially increase by 6.77% YoY to IDR9.41 trillion in FY25F. This estimate aligns with the potential of solid operating performance to maintain profitability. On a quarterly basis, ICBP booked a net loss of IDR559 billion in 4Q24, bringing cumulative net profit to IDR8.81 trillion in FY24. The loss was mainly due to foreign exchange losses from financing activities of Rp2.11 trillion in 4Q24. In the future, the risk that needs to be considered is related to fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate, which could potentially affect ICBP's bottom line. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.48% and Terminal Growth of 2.99%, we estimate ICBP's fair value at IDR13,275 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on ICBP with a lower target and potential upside of 32.75%.
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TOWR: Moderate Outlook With Emerging Growth Drivers

11 Apr 2025
TOWR booked revenue of IDR 3.29 trillion in 4Q24 (–0.25% QoQ; +8.80% YoY), pushing FY24 revenue to IDR 12.74 trillion (+8.48% YoY), broadly in line with consensus (Cons: 102%) and slightly above our estimate (Phintas: 106.26%). Tower leasing segment—its largest contributor—posted modest growth of IDR 8.52 trillion (+1.44% YoY), reflecting lingering impacts from the Indosat-Hutchison merger. In contrast, revenue growth was primarily driven by the non-tower segments. FTTH & Connectivity surged to IDR 2.14 trillion (+35.21% YoY), supported by a +45.80% YoY jump in Home Connect and +33.30% YoY in service activation. Fiber revenue also posted solid growth, reaching IDR 2.07 trillion (+18.09% YoY), in line with the fiber rollout expansion to 217 thousand km (+19.34% YoY). Revenue mix is shifting, with tower leasing now contributing 66.92% (vs 71.57% in FY23), while fiber and non-tower segments grew to 18.09% and 16.78%, respectively. EBITDA margin slightly declined to 84.02% (vs 85.00% in FY23). Interest expense rose +9.78% YoY to IDR 3.14 trillion due to increased debt post-acquisition of IBST.IJ, pushing Net Debt/EBITDA to 4.80x (vs 4.46x in FY23) and DER to 2.74x. Despite financial pressure, net profit reached IDR 888 billion in 4Q24 (+5.38% QoQ; +7.25% YoY), with FY24 net profit totaling IDR 3.73 trillion (+29.28% YoY), in line with estimates (Phintas: 99.44%; Cons: 98.87%). Operator consolidation resurfaces as a key overhang, as seen with EXCL–FREN merger. Notably, EXCL was TOWR’s largest tenant in FY24 (31.68% of revenue), which makes this merger a material risk. Historical precedent from the Indosat-Hutchison merger in 2022 showed a -2.37% YoY tower revenue decline in FY23 before a +1.44% YoY recovery in FY24. We expect tower leasing revenue to slightly contract over FY25–27F (–1.02%/+2.29%/+2.70%) with declining contribution to 64.59%/64.25%/64.08%. We forecast total revenue growth to remain in the low-single-digit range over FY25–27F (+2.55%/+2.83%/+2.97%), led by continued strength in fiber segment (+9.54%/+6.72%/+6.03%) and FTTH/activation services (+10.00% YoY). EBITDA is expected to grow modestly at +1.95%/+3.08%/+3.21%, with margin slightly trending down to 83.52%/83.73%/83.92% (Mgmt guide: 83% FY25E). Net profit is projected to remain flat in FY25E (+0.46% YoY) at IDR 3.35 trillion, as topline softness and elevated interest costs persist. Net margin may compress to 25.65% in FY25E. We maintain our BUY rating on TOWR with a lower TP of IDR 650 (Prev: IDR 860), implying 7.5x EV/EBITDA FY25F. While tower segment momentum is expected to moderate due to telco consolidation headwinds, long-term growth visibility is underpinned by diversification into fiber and digital services. Backed by robust infrastructure, we believe these segments will increasingly act as growth engines. Downside risks: (1) Elevated interest rates that could pressure profitability; (2) Intensifying competition in fiber broadband. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research – Disclaimer On – Contact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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INTP : Post-Seasonal Weakness, Catalysts Begin to Align

10 Apr 2025
INTP reported FY24 revenue of IDR 18.55 trillion (+3.34% YoY), broadly in line with our expectations (Phintas: 104%) and consensus (Cons: 99%). Despite softer growth in 4Q24 due to seasonal factors such as regional elections and increased rainfall, the company managed to maintain volume growth, supported by the consolidation of Semen Grobogan. Total cement sales volume reached 18.92 million tons (+8.35% YoY), underscoring INTP’s ability to sustain operational scale in a still-fragmented and oversupplied market. INTP recorded a robust net profit of IDR 2.01 trillion in FY24 (+2.96% YoY), surpassing both our and consensus estimates (Phintas: 141%; Cons: 125%). The significant quarterly jump in 4Q24 earnings (+53.25% QoQ) further reinforces INTP’s operational leverage and margin resilience, even in the face of softer seasonal demand. INTP’s gross profit margin (GPM) expanded to 37.83% in 4Q24 (vs 34.35% in 3Q24), reflecting stronger contribution from higher-margin tier-1 cement products. This margin improvement was further supported by disciplined cost control, particularly in fuel and power costs which declined to IDR 1.36 trillion (-6.96% YoY) in 4Q24. The company’s increasing adoption of alternative fuels—reaching 21.4% usage in FY24 (vs 18.3% in FY23)—demonstrates a tangible shift toward more efficient and environmentally responsible operations. Despite continued structural overcapacity in the cement industry (utilization rate: ~53%), we believe INTP still has moderate growth potential in FY25–26. This is underpinned by the anticipated progress of the government’s 3-million-housing development initiative, which could provide a much-needed demand tailwind. We conservatively project domestic sales volume growth of +0.60% YoY in FY25F and +1.60% YoY in FY26F, supported by a moderate recovery in pricing (blended ASP growth: +2.00% in FY25F, +1.50% in FY26F). Revenue is expected to grow at a low-single-digit pace (1.35%/2.95%), while net profit is projected to dip slightly in FY25F (–3.0% YoY) before recovering in FY26F (+4.0% YoY), backed by cost efficiencies and better fuel mix optimization. We maintain our BUY rating on INTP with a lower TP of IDR 6,500 (from IDR 8,100), implying FY25F/FY26F EV/EBITDA forward 12-M of 5.43x/4.79x and EV/ton of USD 62.71/USD 57.08. Despite the downward revision, valuation remains attractive as INTP is currently trading at a 6-year trailing EV/EBITDA of 3.38x and EV/ton of USD 35.70 reflecting steep discounts of 71% and 74% to its 6-year historical average of 11.79x and USD 135.88. We see room for performance improvement post low season effect (4Q24–1Q25), supported by cost efficiency, higher alternative fuel usage, and expected demand from national housing and infrastructure projects, paving the way for gradual margin recovery. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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CPIN : Expansion Plan Potentially Maintain CPIN’s Performance in FY25

26 Mar 2025
CPIN booked revenue growth of 9.51% YoY to IDR67.48 trillion in FY24. The revenue growth was driven by significant growth in Day Old Chick (DOC) segment sales by 37.39% YoY, Processed Chicken segment by 19.31% YoY, and Broiler segment by 11.3% YoY. We expect CPIN's DOC, Processed Chicken, and Broiler segments' sales performance can potentially continue its positive trend in 1Q25 in line with the potential increase in demand during the Ramadhan period and ahead of Eid al-Fitr. CPIN's Broiler segment booked an operating profit of IDR2.03 trillion in FY24, the highest since 2019. The segment's operating profit was driven by a 9.96% QoQ or 10.38% YoY increase in the average price of broilers in 4Q24 to IDR20,174/kg, which resulted in the broiler segment's sales increased by 9.75% QoQ or 27.52% YoY to IDR9.28 trillion in 4Q24. CPIN's net profit increased by 60.11% YoY to IDR3.71 trillion in FY24. In addition to positive revenue performance in FY24, CPIN's net profit was driven by a decrease in operating expenses by 15.31% QoQ or 4.46% YoY to IDR4.23 trillion in FY24 as a result of a gain on changes in fair value of biological assets as well as other operating income. CPIN's financial income also increased by 56.58% YoY to IDR44 billion in FY24 from interest earned on current accounts and deposits, mainly on call deposits. CPIN Business Plan 2025. CPIN plans to build an animal feed factory in South Sulawesi to increase production capacity and expand its marketing network in Eastern Indonesia. We assess that this plan can potentially improve the performance of CPIN's animal feed segment, which experienced a decline in operating profit by 12.67% YoY to IDR3.98 trillion in FY24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.67% and Terminal Growth of 4%, we estimate CPIN's fair value at IDR5,400 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on CPIN with a lower target and potential upside of 22.73%.
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SMRA: Above Expectation Performance, Maintain Our Buy Rating

26 Mar 2025
SMRA's net profit grew 79% YoY to IDR1.34 trillion in FY24. This growth aligns with revenue growth of 60% YoY to IDR10.62 trillion in FY24 Performance improvement is accompanied by stable funding quality. SMRA's marketing sales increased by 62% QoQ in FY24, supported by the beginning of project sales in Summarecon Tangerang in 4Q24. Three hundred ten units (5% of the landbank) in Summarecon Tangerang have been built, with 124 units sold in FY24.Thus, the continued development of Summarecon Tangerang can support SMRA's marketing sales in the future. Government stimulus has the potential to optimize SMRA's marketing sales achievement. SMRA targets marketing sales to reach IDR5 trillion in FY25. This target is a 15% increase compared to FY24. We estimate SMRA's fair value to be 600 (5.17x expected P/E FY25F and 65% discount to NAV) using discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods. Considering SMRA's fair price and performance, we maintain our buy rating for SMRA with a potential upside of 59.21%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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MBMA : Transforming Nickel Production for Sustainable Long-Term Profitability

24 Mar 2025
MBMA's net profit dropped by -61.8% QoQ to USD 13.78 million in 3Q24. This issue arises from lowered production and negative margins in the High-Grade Nickel Matte (HGNM). Mining exploration has increased to achieve the demand for 9 million wmt limonite ore annually, driven by the presence of High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) plants at PT ESG ("PT ESG New Energy Material") and PT Meiming ("PT Meiming New Energy Material") in 2025. Opportunity to provide batteries for electric vehicles (EVs). MBMA has successfully produced 164,985 tonnes of acid and 225,036 tonnes of steam, while its two HPAL plants with GEM Co., Ltd. are set to optimally produce Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) in 2025. This advancement will allow MBMA to maintain its market share and revenue streams through enhanced downstream operational capabilities, acquisition of nickel processing facilities, product diversification, and expansive nickel ore resources. We estimate MBMA's fair value at Rp525 (implying 32.17x/2.2x expected P/E and P/BV). This positive outlook is driven by the expected additional sales of more than 25,000 tonnes of Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), cost efficiency, and optimization of mining explorations. Therefore, we maintain our buy rating for MBMA with a potential upside of 77.46%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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SSMS: Strong Productivity and Integration Support Growth

13 Mar 2025
SSMS posted revenue of IDR11.01 trillion in FY25E (+5.33% YoY), supported by strong FFB productivity and optimization of processing capacity. Nucleus FFB production reached 1,723 thousand tons (95% of total 1,817 thousand tons of FFB produced), with a 4-year CAGR of 4.06%. The nucleus FFB yield stood at 25x (vs. blended yield of 22x in FY23). SSMS operates eight palm oil mills (PKS) with an average capacity of 540 tons per hour or 3,200 tons per day. With a production CAGR of 2.03% (FY20-FY23), plant utilization remained at ~65% in FY23, processing 2,345 thousand tons of FFB, 76% sourced internally. Looking ahead, internal supply is projected to grow to 1,841 thousand tons in FY26F (CAGR 2020-2026E: 2.23%), increasing internal contribution to processed FFB to 80-81%, with mill utilization projected at 65-66% in FY25E/FY26F. With high productivity and operational efficiency, we estimate CPO productivity to remain solid (CAGR 2020-2025F: 2.57%), supported by prime-phase tree age. The olein segment is expected to contribute significantly, with a sales volume CAGR of 2.17% (2021-2025F) and ASP estimated at IDR 13,400–IDR 13,500/kg in FY25F. We initiate a BUY rating for SSMS with a target price of IDR2,375, based on a DCF valuation (WACC: 8.30%, terminal growth: 2.0%). The B35-to-B40 transition in 2025 is expected to drive higher domestic CPO consumption, further supporting SSMS's growth. Additionally, its young tree age (Nucleus Only: 15-16 years, Blended: 14.8 years) enables optimal FFB production. The fully integrated upstream-to-downstream model adds value by allowing product diversification with higher margins. Key risks: 1) Global CPO price fluctuations; 2) Regulatory changes; 3) Rising operational costs impacting profitability. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On-  
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JPFA : Resilient Performance Drives Profitability in FY24

12 Mar 2025
JPFA's net profit increased 239.6% YoY to IDR3.21 trillion in FY24. The net profit growth aligned with an interest income increase of 13.45% YoY to IDR50 billion in FY24 (vs. IDR44 billion in FY23). In addition, JPFA's interest expenses decreased by 11.98% YoY to IDR870 billion in FY24 (vs. IDR988 billion in FY23). The Commercial Farm segment successfully booked an operating profit of IDR1.59 trillion in FY24. The Commercial Farm segment's operating profit in FY24 marks the first profit for the segment after experiencing operating losses from 2019 to 2023. The positive performance of the Commercial Farm segment in FY24 was in line with the increase in average Live Bird prices by 9.96% QoQ or 10.38% YoY in 4Q24 to IDR20,174/Kg. Raw material price stability can potentially drive JPFA's profitability. The average domestic corn price in February 2025 was IDR6,360/kg, which decreased by around 1% MoM from IDR6,426/kg in January 2025. Meanwhile, the average price of Soybean Meal (SBM) was US$300/ton, which decreased by around 3% MoM from US$310/ton in January 2025. JPFA conducted a study on nutritious meal programs in schools from May to June 2024. Overall, the study's results can improve students' nutritional intake, which is reflected in the reduction of the number of students with malnutrition status by 2.8%. This initiative signifies JPFA's readiness to support and collaborate with the government in the Free Nutritious Meal program, which is currently underway in stages. With JPFA's performance exceeded our expectations, we increased our FY25F projection. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on JPFA with a higher fair value estimate of IDR2,400 per share (Expected PE at 6.83x and EV/EBITDA at 4.73x in FY25F). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BBTN: Monetizing housing ecosystem will optimize BBTN profitability

12 Mar 2025
BBTN booked an interest income of IDR29.55 trillion, growing by 4.5% YoY in FY24. Meanwhile, interest expense increased by 21.9% YoY to IDR17.85 trillion, with a pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) of IDR5.87 trillion (-28.7% YoY) in FY24. Housing Loans continue to support BBTN's loan growth. BBTN's loans & financing grew 7.3% YoY to IDR358 trillion in FY24. BBTN continues to strive to increase fee-based income by launching Bale by BTN in February 2025 to increase BBTN's transactional banking. Management targets the number of Bale by BTN users to grow 62% YoY in FY25F compared to previous BTN mobile banking users. BBTN will continue its efforts to develop high-yield loans in FY25F. BBTN targets 15 Sales Centers in FY25, compared to 9 Sales Centers in FY24. management targets the contribution to non-subsidized KPR to increase >20% in FY25. With BBTN's performance supported by various stimuli for the property sector (three million homes program, property tax elimination) and a potentially lower BI rate in FY25F, we estimate that BBTN's net profit can grow by around 20% YoY in FY25F. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.15% and Terminal Growth of 7.56%, we estimate BBTN's fair value at 1,250 (4.5x expected P/E). Considering BBTN's fair price and relative valuation below -1 standard deviation of 0.51 of its 5-year P/E, we maintain our buy rating for BBTN with a lower fair value and potential upside of 26.26% By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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