30 Januari 2025

>Indeks-indeks Wall Street masih cenderung lanjutkan pelemahannya di Rabu (29/1). >Pemerintah AS berencana membatasi penjualan chip ke Tiongkok menyusul peluncuran AI Model oleh perusahaan asal Tiongkok, DeepSeek di awal pekan ini. >FOMC berikutnya di Maret 2025. Dengan demikian, data-data ekonomi, khususnya inflasi dan sektor tenaga kerja akan menentukan keputusan sukubunga acuan dalam FOMC tersebut. >OPEC+ berencana meningkatkan supply dalam pertemuan pada 3 Februari 2025. >Harga minyak diperkirakan semakin tertekan. Kondisi ini diyakini memperlebar ruang the Fed dalam memangkas sukubunga acuan dalam FOMC terdekat berikutnya di Maret 2025, atau setidaknya merubah pandangan hawkish the Fed. >IHSG diperkirakan bergerak fluktuatif dengan kecenderungan melemah ke kisaran 7130-7150 di Kamis (30/1). >Top picks (30/1) : PWON, BSDE, ANTM, CTRA, ICBP, TAPG. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Money M2: 4.4% YoY Money M1: 5.8% YoY Loan Growth: 10.4% YoY Broad money supply (M2) growth slowed to 4.4% YoY, reaching IDR 9,211 trillion in December 2024, down from 6.5% YoY in November 2024. By component, M2 money development was driven by narrow money (M1) growth of 5.8% YoY and quasi-money growth of 0.3% YoY in December 2024. M2 money supply growth was supported by M1 money supply growth of 56.7%, consisting of currency growth outside commercial banks rural banks and rupiah demand deposits comprising electronic money and rupiah savings. M2 money supply growth has experienced a decline over the past year, contributing to the downward inflation trend. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BBCA's interest income grew 8.6% YoY to IDR95 trillion in FY24. This growth was in line with the development of Net Interest Income to IDR82.5 trillion (+12.7% yoY or 1.4% QoQ) Consistent growth in credit distribution in the last five years. BBCA recorded credit growth of 13.8% YoY in FY24. Increased third-party funds (TPF) also accompanied this credit growth. BBCA's TPF grew 2.9% YoY to IDR1.134 trillion in FY24, with the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) growing 4.4% YoY. BBCA’s gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) decreased to 1.8% (10 bps YoY; 30 bps QoQ) in FY24. Thus, with the current price and performance of BBCA shares, we change BBCA's rating to buy by maintaining the fair value from the previous Company Update at 11,600, so the potential upside becomes 20.83%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

24 Januari 2025

>DJIA (+0.92%) memimpin rally penguatan indeks-indeks Wall Street di Kamis (23/1). >Presiden AS, Donald Trump dalam WEF menyatakan akan mendorong the Fed untuk segera memangkas sukubunga acuan dan meminta Arab Saudi untuk menurunkan harga minyak (23/1). >Harga brent melemah 1.41% ke US$77.91/barel, sementara harga crude melemah 1.50% ke US$74.31/barel di kamis (23/1). >Bank of Japan (BoJ) diperkirakan menaikan sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps menjadi 0.50% pada hari ini (24/1). >Kondisi ini berpotensi memicu aksi jual pada obligasi AS oleh investor Jepang yang berpotensi melemahkan USD Index, setidaknya dalam jangka pendek. >IHSG diperkirakan kembali bergerak fluktuatif (konsolidatif) dalam rentang 7200-7250 di Jumat (24/1). >Pasar menantikan lanjutkan rilis kinerja keuangan FY24. >Top picks (24/1) : ACES, EXCL, ERAA, MYOR, dan TOWR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

BBNI’s Interest Income grew 8.3% YoY to IDR66.6.7 trillion in FY24 (99% of our 2024F estimate). BBNI’s net interest income grew 6.5% QoQ, down 1.9% YoY in FY24. The higher increase in interest expense compared to interest income pressured BBNI’s interest margin (interest income +8.3% YoY vs. interest expense +29.2% YoY in FY24). BBNI's credit quality remains healthy amid macroeconomic fluctuations. BBNI's gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) fell 10 bps YoY to 2.0% in FY24, with credit growing 11.6% YoY vs. 7.6% YoY in FY23. Moderation of Term Deposits (TD) rate and growth of the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) can potentially optimize BBNI's performance in FY25F. With BBNI's FY24 performance slightly below our expectations, we are lowering our FY25F projection. However, we maintain our BUY rating for BBNI with a lower estimated fair value of 6,150 (18.64x expected P/E) and a potential upside of 28.34%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

23 January 2025

>Nasdaq (+1.28%) pimpin penguatan indeks utama lain di Wall Street di Rabu (22/1). >Penguatan tersebut ditopang oleh penguatan harga saham-saham teknologi menyusul rilis kinerja 4Q24 Nvidia yang berada di atas perkiraan pasar. >Harga minyak masih lanjutkan pelemahan di hari keriga (22/1). >Harga gas catatkan rebound signifikan hingga 6.6% ke US$4.005/mmbtu (22/1) dipicu perkiraan suhu dingin di belahan bumi utara di Februari 2025. >IHSG diperkirakan bergerak dalam rentang baru di 7200-7300 di sisa pekan ini. >BBNI catat pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 2.7% yoy ke Rp21.46 triliun, meski net interest income turun 1.9% yoy ke Rp40.48 triliun. >Harga BBNI menguat lebih dari 1% di Rabu (22/1), mengindikasikan respon positif pelaku pasar. >Selanjutnya, BBCA dan BRIS dijadwalkan merilis kinerja FY24 di pekan ini. >Top picks (23/1) : ACES, EXCL, ERAA, MYOR, dan TOWR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

3Q24 Financial Performance and Near-Term Challenges TBIG reported revenue of IDR 1.71 trillion in 3Q24 (+0.17% YoY; +2.37% QoQ), with EBITDA reaching IDR 1.46 trillion (+1.66% YoY; +0.35% QoQ) and an EBITDA margin of 85.63%. Despite a slight increase in revenue, tenant growth remains limited, with a total of 42.4 thousand tenants (+2.35% YTD). The decline in tenancy ratio to 1.84x for 9M24 reflects the impact of the ongoing consolidation between ISAT and Hutchison. We anticipate continued pressure through 2025 due to high interest rates and ongoing consolidation among telecommunications operators. Moderate Growth Projection and Fiber Segment Contribution Although the challenges of operator consolidation and high interest rates will limit growth, the fiber segment is expected to provide significant contribution to TBIG’s growth. We project TBIG's topline to grow moderately by 8.08% in 2025F, with the fiber segment contributing 11.50% to revenue in 2025F. However, tenant growth is expected to remain flat, with a projected total of 43 thousand tenants by 2025 and a slight decrease in tenancy ratio to 1.79x. Initiate Coverage with HOLD Rating We initiate coverage on TBIG with a HOLD rating and a target price of IDR 2,250, implying an upside potential of 7.66%, which reflects an EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.50x for FY25F. Our valuation is based on a combination of DCF (70%) and EV/EBITDA multiple (30%). The HOLD rating is assigned considering the moderate sentiment we expect to prevail throughout 2025. Challenges such as ongoing telecommunications operator consolidation and relatively high interest rates are projected to limit TBIG's growth potential. Upside risks include: (1) A reduction in interest rates, and (2) a low level of overlapping tenants. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -