>DJIA (+0.92%) memimpin rally penguatan indeks-indeks Wall Street di Kamis (23/1). >Presiden AS, Donald Trump dalam WEF menyatakan akan mendorong the Fed untuk segera memangkas sukubunga acuan dan meminta Arab Saudi untuk menurunkan harga minyak (23/1). >Harga brent melemah 1.41% ke US$77.91/barel, sementara harga crude melemah 1.50% ke US$74.31/barel di kamis (23/1). >Bank of Japan (BoJ) diperkirakan menaikan sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps menjadi 0.50% pada hari ini (24/1). >Kondisi ini berpotensi memicu aksi jual pada obligasi AS oleh investor Jepang yang berpotensi melemahkan USD Index, setidaknya dalam jangka pendek. >IHSG diperkirakan kembali bergerak fluktuatif (konsolidatif) dalam rentang 7200-7250 di Jumat (24/1). >Pasar menantikan lanjutkan rilis kinerja keuangan FY24. >Top picks (24/1) : ACES, EXCL, ERAA, MYOR, dan TOWR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

BBNI’s Interest Income grew 8.3% YoY to IDR66.6.7 trillion in FY24 (99% of our 2024F estimate). BBNI’s net interest income grew 6.5% QoQ, down 1.9% YoY in FY24. The higher increase in interest expense compared to interest income pressured BBNI’s interest margin (interest income +8.3% YoY vs. interest expense +29.2% YoY in FY24). BBNI's credit quality remains healthy amid macroeconomic fluctuations. BBNI's gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) fell 10 bps YoY to 2.0% in FY24, with credit growing 11.6% YoY vs. 7.6% YoY in FY23. Moderation of Term Deposits (TD) rate and growth of the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) can potentially optimize BBNI's performance in FY25F. With BBNI's FY24 performance slightly below our expectations, we are lowering our FY25F projection. However, we maintain our BUY rating for BBNI with a lower estimated fair value of 6,150 (18.64x expected P/E) and a potential upside of 28.34%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

23 January 2025

>Nasdaq (+1.28%) pimpin penguatan indeks utama lain di Wall Street di Rabu (22/1). >Penguatan tersebut ditopang oleh penguatan harga saham-saham teknologi menyusul rilis kinerja 4Q24 Nvidia yang berada di atas perkiraan pasar. >Harga minyak masih lanjutkan pelemahan di hari keriga (22/1). >Harga gas catatkan rebound signifikan hingga 6.6% ke US$4.005/mmbtu (22/1) dipicu perkiraan suhu dingin di belahan bumi utara di Februari 2025. >IHSG diperkirakan bergerak dalam rentang baru di 7200-7300 di sisa pekan ini. >BBNI catat pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 2.7% yoy ke Rp21.46 triliun, meski net interest income turun 1.9% yoy ke Rp40.48 triliun. >Harga BBNI menguat lebih dari 1% di Rabu (22/1), mengindikasikan respon positif pelaku pasar. >Selanjutnya, BBCA dan BRIS dijadwalkan merilis kinerja FY24 di pekan ini. >Top picks (23/1) : ACES, EXCL, ERAA, MYOR, dan TOWR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

3Q24 Financial Performance and Near-Term Challenges TBIG reported revenue of IDR 1.71 trillion in 3Q24 (+0.17% YoY; +2.37% QoQ), with EBITDA reaching IDR 1.46 trillion (+1.66% YoY; +0.35% QoQ) and an EBITDA margin of 85.63%. Despite a slight increase in revenue, tenant growth remains limited, with a total of 42.4 thousand tenants (+2.35% YTD). The decline in tenancy ratio to 1.84x for 9M24 reflects the impact of the ongoing consolidation between ISAT and Hutchison. We anticipate continued pressure through 2025 due to high interest rates and ongoing consolidation among telecommunications operators. Moderate Growth Projection and Fiber Segment Contribution Although the challenges of operator consolidation and high interest rates will limit growth, the fiber segment is expected to provide significant contribution to TBIG’s growth. We project TBIG's topline to grow moderately by 8.08% in 2025F, with the fiber segment contributing 11.50% to revenue in 2025F. However, tenant growth is expected to remain flat, with a projected total of 43 thousand tenants by 2025 and a slight decrease in tenancy ratio to 1.79x. Initiate Coverage with HOLD Rating We initiate coverage on TBIG with a HOLD rating and a target price of IDR 2,250, implying an upside potential of 7.66%, which reflects an EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.50x for FY25F. Our valuation is based on a combination of DCF (70%) and EV/EBITDA multiple (30%). The HOLD rating is assigned considering the moderate sentiment we expect to prevail throughout 2025. Challenges such as ongoing telecommunications operator consolidation and relatively high interest rates are projected to limit TBIG's growth potential. Upside risks include: (1) A reduction in interest rates, and (2) a low level of overlapping tenants. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

22 January 2025

Wall Street menguat signifikan satu hari pasca pelantikan Donald Trump sebagai Presiden AS ke-47 (21/1). Pasar menilai bahwa kebijakan tarif di hari-hari awal kepemimpinan Donald Trump kemungkinan tidak seagresif kekhawatiran pasar sebelumnya. Keputusan Trump menetapkan national energy emergency memungkinkan AS meningkatkan volume produksi energi secara signifikan. Kebijakan tersebut memicu rally pelemahan signifikan harga minyak dan gas. Kondisi ini dinilai mempercepat penurunan inflasi di AS, sehingga memperlebar ruang the Fed untuk lebih agresif dalam memangkas sukubunga acuan di 2025. Pola shooting star yang terbentuk di Selasa (21/1) mengindikasikan kondisi rawan profit taking pada IHSG di Rabu (22/1). Waspadai potensi pullback wajar ke kisaran support area baru di 7130-7150 (22/1). BBCA dijadwalkan rilis laporan keuangan 4Q24 di Rabu (22/1), disusul oleh BBNI dan BRIS di Kamis (23/1). Top picks (22/1) : ICBP, PTBA, TLKM, JSMR dan INDY. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

21 January 2025

Wall Street tutup di Senin (20/1) untuk memperingati Marthin Luther King Day. Donald Trump dilantik sebagai Presiden AS ke-47 di Senin (20/1). Dalam pidatonya, sinyal-sinyal mengenai pengenaan tarif yang lebih besar bagi produk dari negara lain yang berpotensi memicu perang dagang kembali disinggung. Selain itu, Trump juga menyampaikan visi untuk menekan harga komoditas energi melalui peningkatan volume produksi domestik. Harga komoditas, khususnya minyak bumi melemah lebih dari 1%, sementara harga gas alam melemah hampir 3% di Senin (20/1). Upaya AS meningkatkan volume produksi energi dapat meredam laju inflasi atau mempercepat penurunan inflasi di 2025. Pasar menantikan rilis laporan keuangan FY24 dari sejumlah emiten di IDX, terutama emiten Perbankan pada pekan ini. IHSG rawan pullback ke kisaran 7130-7150 di Selasa (21/1). Top picks (21/1) : MDKA, AKRA, SMGR, PNLF, dan JPFA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

20 January 2025