14 April 2025

Indeks-indeks catatkan technical rebound lebih dari 1.5% di Jumat (11/4). Presiden AS, Donald Trump optimistis terhadap peluang kesepakatan dengan Tiongkok. Trump mengumumkan penundaan reciprocal tariffs selama 90 hari untuk seluruh negara, kecuali Tiongkok. Pemerintah Indonesia masih berupaya negosiasi dengan AS. Pemerintah sendiri berupaya merubah sejumlah kebijakan sebagai bagian dari penawaran kepada AS, terutama terkait kebijakan TKDN dan impor. Selain negosiasi bilateral, Pemerintah Indonesia juga mendorong untuk dilakukan negosiasi oleh ASEAN sebagai satu blok ekonomi dengan AS. IHSG diperkirakan masih akan berfluktuasi dalam rentang 6000-6500 pada pekan ini. Top picks : TLKM, MEDC, ICBP, RAJA, TAPG, dan TKIM. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

U.S. recorded a deflation of 0.1% MoM in March 2025, down from an inflation rate of 0.2% MoM in February 2025, contrary to market expectations of a 0.1% MoM inflation. It was influenced by a 2.4% decrease in the energy index in March 2025, which saw an offset between a decline in the gasoline index and an increase in the electricity and natural gas indices. Meanwhile, the food index rose to 0.5% MoM in March 2025. Additionally, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, decreased by 10 basis points to 0.1% MoM in March 2025 from 0.2% MoM in February 2025 (Figure 1). It was due to a 1.4% MoM decline in the transportation services index.

ICBP booked revenue growth of 6.9% YoY to IDR72.59 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by increased sales in all business segments. The Food Seasonings segment booked the highest increase of 17% YoY to IDR4.3 trillion, followed by the Nutrition and Special Foods segment by 11.4% YoY to IDR1.36 trillion, and the Snack Foods segment increased by 6.9% YoY to IDR4.54 trillion in FY24. In 2025, ICBP will continue to drive sales and volume growth while maintaining profitability. In the future, we expect ICBP's revenue to potentially recover in line with the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr period in 1Q25. ICBP's operating profit increased by 13.44% YoY to IDR16.32 trillion in FY24. The growth aligned with lower operating expenses due to lower foreign exchange losses from operating activities. Operating profit growth in all segments also contributed to the increase in operating profit in FY24. Cumulatively, ICBP's segment operating profit increased by 9.59% YoY to IDR16.19 trillion in FY24. We estimate ICBP's net profit to potentially increase by 6.77% YoY to IDR9.41 trillion in FY25F. This estimate aligns with the potential of solid operating performance to maintain profitability. On a quarterly basis, ICBP booked a net loss of IDR559 billion in 4Q24, bringing cumulative net profit to IDR8.81 trillion in FY24. The loss was mainly due to foreign exchange losses from financing activities of Rp2.11 trillion in 4Q24. In the future, the risk that needs to be considered is related to fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate, which could potentially affect ICBP's bottom line. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.48% and Terminal Growth of 2.99%, we estimate ICBP's fair value at IDR13,275 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on ICBP with a lower target and potential upside of 32.75%.

TOWR booked revenue of IDR 3.29 trillion in 4Q24 (–0.25% QoQ; +8.80% YoY), pushing FY24 revenue to IDR 12.74 trillion (+8.48% YoY), broadly in line with consensus (Cons: 102%) and slightly above our estimate (Phintas: 106.26%). Tower leasing segment—its largest contributor—posted modest growth of IDR 8.52 trillion (+1.44% YoY), reflecting lingering impacts from the Indosat-Hutchison merger. In contrast, revenue growth was primarily driven by the non-tower segments. FTTH & Connectivity surged to IDR 2.14 trillion (+35.21% YoY), supported by a +45.80% YoY jump in Home Connect and +33.30% YoY in service activation. Fiber revenue also posted solid growth, reaching IDR 2.07 trillion (+18.09% YoY), in line with the fiber rollout expansion to 217 thousand km (+19.34% YoY). Revenue mix is shifting, with tower leasing now contributing 66.92% (vs 71.57% in FY23), while fiber and non-tower segments grew to 18.09% and 16.78%, respectively. EBITDA margin slightly declined to 84.02% (vs 85.00% in FY23). Interest expense rose +9.78% YoY to IDR 3.14 trillion due to increased debt post-acquisition of IBST.IJ, pushing Net Debt/EBITDA to 4.80x (vs 4.46x in FY23) and DER to 2.74x. Despite financial pressure, net profit reached IDR 888 billion in 4Q24 (+5.38% QoQ; +7.25% YoY), with FY24 net profit totaling IDR 3.73 trillion (+29.28% YoY), in line with estimates (Phintas: 99.44%; Cons: 98.87%). Operator consolidation resurfaces as a key overhang, as seen with EXCL–FREN merger. Notably, EXCL was TOWR’s largest tenant in FY24 (31.68% of revenue), which makes this merger a material risk. Historical precedent from the Indosat-Hutchison merger in 2022 showed a -2.37% YoY tower revenue decline in FY23 before a +1.44% YoY recovery in FY24. We expect tower leasing revenue to slightly contract over FY25–27F (–1.02%/+2.29%/+2.70%) with declining contribution to 64.59%/64.25%/64.08%. We forecast total revenue growth to remain in the low-single-digit range over FY25–27F (+2.55%/+2.83%/+2.97%), led by continued strength in fiber segment (+9.54%/+6.72%/+6.03%) and FTTH/activation services (+10.00% YoY). EBITDA is expected to grow modestly at +1.95%/+3.08%/+3.21%, with margin slightly trending down to 83.52%/83.73%/83.92% (Mgmt guide: 83% FY25E). Net profit is projected to remain flat in FY25E (+0.46% YoY) at IDR 3.35 trillion, as topline softness and elevated interest costs persist. Net margin may compress to 25.65% in FY25E. We maintain our BUY rating on TOWR with a lower TP of IDR 650 (Prev: IDR 860), implying 7.5x EV/EBITDA FY25F. While tower segment momentum is expected to moderate due to telco consolidation headwinds, long-term growth visibility is underpinned by diversification into fiber and digital services. Backed by robust infrastructure, we believe these segments will increasingly act as growth engines. Downside risks: (1) Elevated interest rates that could pressure profitability; (2) Intensifying competition in fiber broadband. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research – Disclaimer On – Contact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

11 April 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street berbalik melemah di Kamis (10/4). Presiden AS, Donald Trump menyatakan membuka peluang perpanjangan periode penundaan implementasi reciprocal tariffs. >Tarif impor yang ditetapkan untuk Tiongkok justru kembali meningkat menjadi 145%. Tiongkok belum membuka peluang negosiasi dengan AS. Hal ini meningkatkan risiko bagi indonesia, baik di sisi penurunan nilai ekspor ke Tiongkok, maupun potensi semakin “membanjirnya” produk Tiongkok di Indonesia. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 0.029% ke 4.425% (10/4). Tiongkok dikabarkan masih melakukan pelepasan obligasi AS yang dimilikinya. Pelaku pasar mencermati eksekusi dari sejumlah rencana kebijakan terbaru Pemerintah Indonesia yang berkaitan dengan upaya untuk memperbesar nilai impor produk AS. IHSG rawan pullback ke 6100-6160 di Jumat (11/4). Top picks (11/3) : TLKM, UNVR, SCMA, JPFA dan KLBF. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced inflation of 1.65% YoY in March 2025, following deflation of 0.09% YoY in February 2025. This realization was lower than the consensus forecast of 1.16%. Core inflation remained steady at 2.48% YoY in March 2025. Commodities contributing to core inflation included jewelry, cooking oil, ground coffee, and rice with side dishes. Meanwhile, the volatile food group experienced inflation of 0.37% YoY in March 2025, primarily supported by increases in bird's eye chilies, fresh fish, and shallots, contributing 0.32% to inflation in March 2025. The administered price group experienced deflation of 3.16% YoY, with significant contributions from electricity tariffs, air transportation fares, and non-subsidized fuel prices.

Presiden Donald Trump memberlakukan tarif impor sebesar 104% untuk semua barang dari Tiongkok mulai 9 April 2025, sebagai respons terhadap tarif balasan dari Tiongkok yang memicu ancaman pembalasan lebih lanjut dari Tiongkok dan kekhawatiran akan kerugian ekonomi bagi industri domestik serta kenaikan harga bagi konsumen Amerika, terutama dengan kenaikan tarif yang signifikan pada barang-barang bernilai kurang dari US$ 800. Uni Eropa menyetujui penetapan tarif senilai €21 miliar (US$23,2 miliar) pada berbagai komoditas Amerika Serikat, termasuk produk pertanian dan industri sebagai balasan atas tarif baja dan aluminium yang diberlakukan oleh Pemerintah AS. Tarif ini mulai berlaku secara bertahap mulai pertengahan April 2025. Indeks PMI Manufaktur Indonesia dari S&P Global turun menjadi 52.4 pada Maret 2025 dari angka tertinggi dalam 11 bulan yaitu 53.6 di Februari 2025. Namun demikian, ini merupakan bulan keempat berturut-turut aktivitas pabrik mengalami ekspansi. Pertumbuhan output dan pesanan baru tetap kuat meskipun sedikit melambat, sementara keyakinan bisnis stabil mendekati level tertinggi dalam 35 bulan sejak April 2023.

INTP reported FY24 revenue of IDR 18.55 trillion (+3.34% YoY), broadly in line with our expectations (Phintas: 104%) and consensus (Cons: 99%). Despite softer growth in 4Q24 due to seasonal factors such as regional elections and increased rainfall, the company managed to maintain volume growth, supported by the consolidation of Semen Grobogan. Total cement sales volume reached 18.92 million tons (+8.35% YoY), underscoring INTP’s ability to sustain operational scale in a still-fragmented and oversupplied market. INTP recorded a robust net profit of IDR 2.01 trillion in FY24 (+2.96% YoY), surpassing both our and consensus estimates (Phintas: 141%; Cons: 125%). The significant quarterly jump in 4Q24 earnings (+53.25% QoQ) further reinforces INTP’s operational leverage and margin resilience, even in the face of softer seasonal demand. INTP’s gross profit margin (GPM) expanded to 37.83% in 4Q24 (vs 34.35% in 3Q24), reflecting stronger contribution from higher-margin tier-1 cement products. This margin improvement was further supported by disciplined cost control, particularly in fuel and power costs which declined to IDR 1.36 trillion (-6.96% YoY) in 4Q24. The company’s increasing adoption of alternative fuels—reaching 21.4% usage in FY24 (vs 18.3% in FY23)—demonstrates a tangible shift toward more efficient and environmentally responsible operations. Despite continued structural overcapacity in the cement industry (utilization rate: ~53%), we believe INTP still has moderate growth potential in FY25–26. This is underpinned by the anticipated progress of the government’s 3-million-housing development initiative, which could provide a much-needed demand tailwind. We conservatively project domestic sales volume growth of +0.60% YoY in FY25F and +1.60% YoY in FY26F, supported by a moderate recovery in pricing (blended ASP growth: +2.00% in FY25F, +1.50% in FY26F). Revenue is expected to grow at a low-single-digit pace (1.35%/2.95%), while net profit is projected to dip slightly in FY25F (–3.0% YoY) before recovering in FY26F (+4.0% YoY), backed by cost efficiencies and better fuel mix optimization. We maintain our BUY rating on INTP with a lower TP of IDR 6,500 (from IDR 8,100), implying FY25F/FY26F EV/EBITDA forward 12-M of 5.43x/4.79x and EV/ton of USD 62.71/USD 57.08. Despite the downward revision, valuation remains attractive as INTP is currently trading at a 6-year trailing EV/EBITDA of 3.38x and EV/ton of USD 35.70 reflecting steep discounts of 71% and 74% to its 6-year historical average of 11.79x and USD 135.88. We see room for performance improvement post low season effect (4Q24–1Q25), supported by cost efficiency, higher alternative fuel usage, and expected demand from national housing and infrastructure projects, paving the way for gradual margin recovery. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id