In May 2025, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52 due to stronger domestic demand and inventory buildup amid tariff concerns, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48.5, reflecting ongoing contraction. The service sector showed mixed results: the S&P Global Services PMI improved to 53.7 with increased hiring, but the ISM Services PMI dropped to 49.9, signaling contraction influenced by rising costs from tariffs. Overall, tariffs and trade issues continued to pressure both sectors, causing inflation and supply challenges.

TBIG posted a resilient 1Q25 performance despite relatively flat revenue. TBIG booked revenue of IDR 1.73 trillion (-0.5% QoQ, +1.6% YoY), broadly in line with our estimate, the consensus, and the 5-year historical average (Phintas: 25.35%; Consensus: 24.6%; 5-year avg: 24.2%). The tower segment remained the main contributor (>91% of total revenue) but experienced a slight contraction of -0.9% QoQ to IDR 1.58 trillion. Conversely, the fiber segment delivered solid growth (+3.7% QoQ; +10.3% YoY) to IDR 151 billion, reflecting sustained demand for fiber amid weak tower leasing momentum. While top-line growth was limited, cost efficiency helped operational performance exceed expectations. EBITDA edged up to IDR 1.11 trillion (+1.1% QoQ, +1.2% YoY), beating our forecast (Phintas: 26.77%) and broadly in line with consensus and the 5-year average (Consensus: 25.1%; 5-year avg: 24.2%). The improvement was primarily driven by a combination of a -4.1% QoQ decrease in cost of revenue and a substantial -13.9% QoQ decline in operating expenses, resulting in EBITDA margin expansion to 85.6% in 1Q25 (vs 84.2% in 4Q24). Cost and tax efficiency further supported bottom-line growth. TBIG booked net profit of IDR 413 billion (+112.8% QoQ; +98.5% YoY), in line with our estimate, consensus, and the 5-year average (Phintas: 25.05%; Consensus: 26.3%; 5-year avg: 20.7%). The improvement was driven by a -5.1% QoQ reduction in interest expenses and a significant -24.9% QoQ drop in tax expenses, which also boosted net profit margin to 23.9% (vs 12.2% in 4Q24). The balance sheet also strengthened, with DER falling to 2.96x in 1Q25 (vs 3.23x in 4Q24). We maintain our HOLD recommendation on TBIG, consistent with our previous report. Despite notable improvements in operational and bottom-line metrics in 1Q25, the near-term outlook for the tower business remains clouded by demand-side uncertainty. One of the key risks lies in the ongoing consolidation process between EXCL and FREN, which together contribute approximately 31.92% of TBIG’s total revenue. Downside Risks: (1) High interest rates potentially pressuring profitability margins; (2) A meaningful number of decommissioned sites due to EXCL-FREN consolidation. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research – Disclaimer On –

TOWR recorded revenue of Rp3.21 trillion in 1Q25 (-2.38% QoQ; +5.31% YoY), relatively in line with our estimate, consensus, and the 5-year historical average (Phintas: 24.57%; Cons: 24.24%; Avg 5-Years: 23.8%). The sequential decline in revenue was mainly driven by a sharp drop in the connectivity segment, which fell -14.43% QoQ to Rp350 billion, as well as a slight contraction in the tower segment the main contributor which declined -1.56% QoQ. On the other hand, the FTTH segment posted solid growth of +37.11% QoQ and +84.75% YoY, reaching Rp218 billion, reflecting strong momentum in the fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) rollout. On the profitability side, EBITDA came in at Rp2.68 trillion in 1Q25 (-2.76% QoQ; +5.25% YoY), in line with our estimate, consensus, and the 5-year average (Phintas: 24.55%; Cons: 24.19%; Avg 5-Years: 23.8%). The QoQ EBITDA contraction slightly pressured the EBITDA margin to 83.48% in 1Q25 (vs 83.54% in 1Q24). This margin pressure extended down to the bottom line, with net profit declining to Rp803 billion (-9.56% QoQ; +0.66% YoY), and net profit margin narrowing to 25.02% from 26.17% in 1Q24. On the Operationally side, TOWR showed signs of a quarterly slowdown. Total towers increased marginally to 35.51k units (+0.30% QoQ), while total tenants remained flat at 58.04k (+0.02% QoQ), resulting in a slight decline in tenancy ratio to 1.63x (vs 1.64x in 4Q24). On the fiber side, total FTTT fiber length rose slightly by +0.61% QoQ to 218.84k km, while FTTH subscribers grew a solid +7.96% QoQ. Meanwhile, average monthly revenue per tenant dropped -1.46% QoQ to Rp12.3 million, and revenue per fiber ticked up only slightly by +0.19% QoQ to Rp839k, signaling ongoing monetization pressure in early-stage fiber expansion. We maintain our BUY recommendation on TOWR with a target price of Rp650, in line with our previous report. While margin pressure remains a near-term concern, we see TOWR’s competitive edge in the fiber segment as a key long-term growth engine amid softening tower performance during the ongoing industry consolidation. Furthermore, asset monetization both in fiber and towers will be essential to support profitability and sustain future growth. Downside Risks: 1) Elevated interest rates that could pressure profitability; 2) Intensifying competition in the fiber segment which may squeeze margins; and 3) High site deactivations following the EXCL-FREN consolidation. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research – Disclaimer On –

Gubernur Fed Bank Atlanta, Bostic, masih melihat potensi pemangkasan suku bunga sebesar 25 bps pada tahun 2025, namun keputusan ini dipengaruhi oleh ketidakpastian terkait dampak tarif dan kebijakan ekonomi lainnya. Inflasi tercatat sebesar 2.1% hingga April, namun tekanan harga dari tarif masih menjadi risiko yang membuat The Fed berhati-hati dalam mengambil langkah pemangkasan suku bunga. Sementara itu ADP Employment turun menjadi 37K dari 60K sehingga Presiden AS Donald Trump kembali mendesak Ketua The Fed Jerome Powell untuk segera menurunkan suku bunga.

5 June 2025

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup variatif (4/6). Data ADP Employment Mei 2025 sebesar 37 ribu dari 60 ribu di April 2025 dan di bawah estimasi 110 ribu, serta merupakan level terendah dalam dua tahun. Indeks di bursa Eropa ditutup menguat karena ekspektasi akan tercapainya kemajuan dalam negosiasi dagang antara Uni Eropa dan AS. Presiden Trump telah menandatangani perintah eksekutif yang menetapkan kenaikan tarif impor baja dan aluminium dari 25% menjadi 50% mulai 4 Juni 2025. Negara-negara yang akan menghadapi dampak tarif impor baja termasuk Kanada dan Meksiko, serta Jerman, Italia, Swedia, dan Belanda. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 10 bps menjadi 4.357% Harga emas menguat sekitar 1% di level US$3,378/troy oz karena pelemahan dollar AS dan kenaikan permintaan akan aset safe haven. Waspadai potensi profit taking menjelang long weekend. IHSG diperkirakan bergerak fluktuatif di kisaran 7000-7120. Top picks (5/6) : INDY, ENRG, KLBF, TINS dan EMTK.

U.S. JOLTs Job Openings meningkat sebesar 191 ribu menjadi 7.391 juta pada April 2025, melebihi ekspektasi pasar sebesar 7.10 juta. Kenaikan terjadi di sektor seni, hiburan, perdagangan eceran, transportasi, informasi, layanan profesional, serta pendidikan dan kesehatan swasta, sementara sektor akomodasi, makanan, dan pemerintah daerah mengalami penurunan. Secara regional, lowongan naik di wilayah Timur Laut, Selatan, dan Barat, tetapi turun di Midwest, dengan jumlah perekrutan dan pemutusan hubungan kerja yang relatif stabil masing-masing di angka 5.6 juta dan 5.3 juta. Inflasi harga konsumen di Zona Euro turun menjadi 1.9 YoY di Mei 2025, dari 2.2% YoY di April 2025 dan di bawah ekspektasi pasar sebesar 2.0% YoY. Penurunan ini terutama didorong oleh melambatnya inflasi jasa menjadi 3.2% YoY serta penurunan harga energi sebesar 3.6% YoY, sementara inflasi inti turun ke 2.3% YoY, level terendah sejak Januari 2022. Kondisi ini memperkuat perkiraan pemotongan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin pekan ini.

4 June 2025

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat (3/6). Pasar menantikan kemungkinan pembicaraan antara Presiden Trump dan Presiden Xi pekan ini. Pemerintahan Trump memberi batas waktu (4/5) kepada negara-negara mitra dagangnya untuk menyampaikan proposal perdagangan untuk negosiasi dagang sebelum jeda 90 hari tarif resiprokal berakhir. Data inflasi Euro Area Mei 2025 turun ke 1.9% YoY dari 2.2% YoY di April 2025. Data Caixin Manufacturing PMI Tiongkok Mei 2025 (3/6) turun ke 48.3 dari 50.4 di April. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 4 bps menjadi 4.45%, setelah OECD menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi AS. Harga emas koreksi sekitar 0.8% di level US$3,352/troy oz, karena kenaikan dollar AS. IHSG diperkirakan bergerak fluktuatif di kisaran 6980-7100. Top picks (4/6) : WIFI, RAJA, ACES, SMGR dan ISAT. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Ratna Lim - Disclaimer On -

BI rate has the potential to be cut by 25 bps - 50 bps in the remainder of 2025. Given Indonesia's relatively solid macroeconomic conditions, where the inflation rate is in line with BI's assumptions (2.5%+-1% or 1.5% -3.5%) in 2025. Residential property sales grew 0.73% YoY or 33.92% QoQ in 1Q25 vs. -15.09% YoY in 4Q24. The growth of small-type houses drove this increase, small-type houses grew 21.75% YoY in 1Q25. Therefore, property issuers whose portfolios mostly consist of small-type houses, such as CTRA, booked more resilient performance. Several stimuli from the Government. The Government will continue Value Added Tax (VAT) incentive program until the end of 2025.Several stimuli from the Government. The Government will continue Value Added Tax (VAT) incentive program until the end of 2025. The majority of property issuers booked marketing sales growth in line with the FY25F target. Mortgage Growth is Still Overshadowed by Worsening Asset Quality. Annually, total KPR grew by 9.13% YoY in 3M25, lower than the 9.67% YoY growth in FY24. While quarterly, total KPR grew by 2.54% QoQ, higher than the 2.0% QoQ in 3M25. With the various catalysts above, as well as the performance of each issuer in the property sector, we make our top picks CTRA with a potential fair value of Rp1,320 > BSDE Bwith a potential fair value of Rp1,185 > PWON with a potential fair value of Rp535. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -