5 Desember 2024

BBTN recorded an Interest Income of IDR22.37 trillion, growing 7.4% YoY in 9M24. Meanwhile, Interest Expense increased 26.0% YoY to IDR13.47 trillion, with an Operating Profit Before Provision (PPOP) of IDR4.02 trillion (-32% YoY) in 9M24. BBTN's loan & financing grew 11.9% YoY to IDR356 trillion in 9M24. This growth was supported by housing loan growth, which rose 10.4% YoY in 9M24. The current Account Saving Account (CASA) ratio grew 150 bps YoY in 9M24. BBTN recorded total Third Party Funds of IDR371 trillion (+14.5% YoY) in 9M24. BBTN will continue its efforts to develop high-yield loans in FY25F. BBTN targets 15 Sales Centers in FY25, compared to 6 Sales Centers in 9M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.67% and Terminal growth of 7.59%, we estimate BBTN's fair value at 1,460 (5.60x expected P/E). Considering BBTN's fair price and relative valuation, below its 0.73 5-year average P/B, we maintain a buy rating for with a potential upside of 20.91%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Nasdaq (+0.40%) dan S&P 500 (+0.05%) lanjutkan penguatan di Selasa (3/12), U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change diperkirakan turun ke 166 ribu di November 2024 dari 233 ribu di Oktober 2024 (4/12). Indikasi penurunan signifikan di sektor tenaga kerja tersebut dinilai pasar menjaga peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed di Desember 2024. Mayoritas indeks di Eropa menguat di Selasa (3/12). Harga minyak rebound lebih dari 2% di Selasa (3/12) jelang pertemuan OPEC+ di 5 Desember 2024. IHSG menguat lebih dari 2% di Selasa (3/12). Sikap wait and see pasar dalam sepekan terakhir dinilai terpengaruh oleh rencana atau jadwal IPO AADI. IHSG berpeluang konfirmasi rebound ke atas 7200 dengan target terdekat di 7230-7250 di Rabu (4/12). Perlu dicatat, fenoma window dressing umumnya mulai terjadi di pekan kedua sampai dengan pekan terakhir di Desember dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Top picks (4/12) : TLKM, BBCA, BMRI, BBNI, dan BBRI. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

4 Desember 2024

Nasdaq (+0.97%) dan S&P 500 (+0.24%) lanjutkan rally di Senin (2/12). Indeks manufaktur (ISM) AS naik signifikan ke 48.4 di November 2024 dari 46.5 di Oktober 2024. Perbaikan aktivitas manufaktur di AS diperkirakan berlanjut di Desember 2024 seiring ekspektasi peningkatan permintaan di holiday season. Mayoritas indeks di Eropa juga menguat di Senin (2/12). Harga gas alam turun hingga 4.61% di Senin (2/12). Penurunan diperkirakan sejalan dengan upaya penurunan tensi geopolitik dengan Rusia. Harga safe-haven seperti emas lanjutkan pullback (2/12) dipicu oleh penguatan USD Index dan kabar bahwa Tiongkok menemukan cadangan emas besar baru. Waspadai level psikologis yang sekaligus menjadi critical support level IHSG di 7000 pada perdagangan Selasa (3/12). Penurunan inflasi Indonesia ke 1.55% yoy di November 2024 dari 1.71% yoy di Oktober 2024 memicu kekhawatiran bahwa konsumsi rumah tangga masih tertekan. Kenaikan indeks manufaktur Tiongkok di November 2024 diperkirakan menjadikan Pasar Modal Indonesia less-attractive dari kompetitornya di regional Asia. Top picks (3/12) : PGAS, ISAT, SRTG, UNTR dan BDMN. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

3 December 2024

Periode : November 2024 INFLASI: MoM : 0.30% YoY: 1.55% INFLASI KOMPONEN INTI : MoM : 0.17% YoY : 2.26% Inflasi turun menjadi 1.55% YoY pada bulan November 2024 dari 1.71% YoY di bulan Oktober 2024, mencatatkan level terendah sejak Juli 2021. Meskipun demikian, angka tersebut masih berada dalam rentang target Bank Indonesia yang berkisar antara 1.5% hingga 3.5%. Inflasi ini juga lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan proyeksi konsensus para ekonom sebesar 1.5%. Inflasi inti tumbuh 2.26% YoY pada November 2024, meningkat dari 2.21% YoY pada Oktober 2024. Komoditas yang berkontribusi terhadap inflasi meliputi emas perhiasan, kopi bubuk, sewa rumah, dan minyak goreng. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

MIDI recorded revenue of Rp14.69 trillion in 9M24, growing 13.64% YoY (vs. Rp12.92 trillion in 9M23). Revenue in Food segment grew 12.8% YoY to Rp8.85 trillion (vs. Rp7.85 trillion in 9M23), Fresh Food segment grew 16% YoY to Rp2.08 trillion (vs. Rp1.79 trillion in 9M23), and Non-Food segment grew 14.32% YoY to Rp3.74 trillion (vs. Rp3.27 trillion in 9M23). Non-operational performance improved in 9M24. MIDI's non-operating expenses decreased by 57% YoY to Rp36 billion in 9M24 (vs. Rp83 billion in 9M23). The decline was aligned with MIDI's Interest Expenses, which decreased by 55.7% YoY due to the repayment of MIDI's short-term bank debt in 9M24. We assess that this condition can potentially improve MIDI's financial performance, especially in maximizing profitability in the future. Expansion continues in 9M24. During 9M24, MIDI added 123 Alfamidi stores and 9 Alfamidi Super stores, indicating that MIDI continues to expand to increase revenue. At the same time, 3 Midi Fresh outlets were closed. In addition, MIDI also evaluated Lawson stores by closing 79 Lawson stores that had negative EBITDA or cash flow to reduce further losses. In the future, MIDI plans to close all Lawson outlets with a store-in-store format as it is considered less profitable and will focus on Lawson with a stand-alone format. MIDI innovated by launching a pilot project called JA-DI (Jajan di Alfamidi) in August 2024. MIDI targets to open 50 JA-DI booths by the end of 2024. We believe that this innovation can potentially increase MIDI's sales and profitability in the future. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.63% and Terminal Growth of 7.80%, we estimate MIDI's fair value at IDR513 per share (Expected PE at 24.94x and EV/EBITDA at 9.24x in FY24). We give MIDI a Buy rating with a potential upside of 24.00%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BDMN recorded a net profit growth of 41% QoQ to IDR2.32 trillion in 9M24. Net Interest Income grew 4% YoY to IDR11.7 trillion in 9M24. Credit grew 12% YoY, with a Gross NPL of 2.0% (-30 bps YoY) in 9M24. BDMN distributed total credit, reaching IDR186 billion (+12% YoY) in 9M24. Loan at Risk (LaR) has tended to decline in the last 5 years. BDMN continues to improve in terms of disbursed credit. Adira Finance's contribution to total credit is maintained at around 30%. Adira Finance is the second highest contributing segment after wholesales to BDMN's total credit. Interest Income is estimated to grow 9% to IDR13.7 trillion in FY24. Management targets BDMN's credit growth 2024 of 9% to 10%.Corporate credit is targeted to grow double digits, with credit for the green energy sector reaching 25% of total credit in FY24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.5% and Terminal Growth of 1.6%, we estimate BDMN's fair value at 2,920 (11.44x expected P/E). So, we give BDMN a buy rating with a potential upside of 15.21%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

2 December 2024