28 April 2025

28 April 2025

Wall Street catat penguatan mingguan sebesar 6.7% oleh Nasdaq, 4.6% oleh S&P500 dan 2.5% oleh DJIA di pekan lalu. Presiden AS, Donald Trump menyatakan bahwa akan ada banyak kesepakatan dalam 3-4 pekan kedepan. Hasil jajak pendapat terbaru dari sejumlah lembaga di AS menunjukan bawah approval rating Presiden AS, Donald Trump berada di bawah 50%. Kondisi ini diyakini menambah tekanan bagi Trump untuk merubah kebijakan tarif dan termasuk terus mendorong terealisasinya negosiasi dengan Tiongkok. Tiongkok catat pertumbuhan Industrial Profit sebesar 0.8% YTD di Maret 2024 dibanding koreksi sebesar 0.3% YTD di Februari 2025. IHSG berpeluang coba tutup gap di 6770-6870 pada pekan ini. Akan tetapi, IHSG masih rawan konsolidasi di kisaran 6550-6750 dalam upayanya mencapai target level jangka pendek tersebut. Top picks : INTP, WIFI, JPFA, MAPA, HRTA dan MIDI. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Indonesia's Money supply in broad terms (M2) slowed to 6.1% Year-over-Year (YoY), reaching IDR 9,436.4 trillion in March 2025, from 6.2% YoY in February 2025 (Figure 1). By component, the expansion of M2 was driven by the growth of narrow money (M1) at 7.1% YoY and quasi-money at 3.0% YoY in March 2025. The development of M2 was supported by the 55.9% growth in M1, which consisted of an 11.5% increase in currency outside commercial banks and rural banks (BPR) and a 44.4% rise in rupiah demand deposits, encompassing electronic money and withdrawable rupiah savings. Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, the broad money supply (M2) increased by 1.7% (MoM), in line with inflation in March 2025, which coincided with the month of Ramadan and the end of the 50% electricity tariff discount for customers with power connections below 2,200 VA.

ACES booked revenue growth of 12.75% YoY to IDR8.58 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by a significant increase in lifestyle product sales by 17.99% YoY to IDR3.71 trillion, followed by home improvement product sales up by 9.67% YoY to IDR4.39 trillion in FY24. Meanwhile, toy product sales increased 3.34% YoY to IDR315 billion, and consignment sales increased 4.22% YoY to IDR156 billion in FY24. ACES booked Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) of 8.6% YoY in March 2025. This marked a recovery from the February 2025 SSSG realization, which contracted by 6.6% YoY. The improvement in SSSG in March 2025 was supported by increased demand during the Ramadhan period and ahead of Eid al-Fitr. ACES booked a net profit growth of 15.82% YoY to IDR885 billion in FY24. The growth in net profit was supported by ACES's double-digit revenue growth in FY24, which was able to cover the increase in operating expenses. Expansion will continue in 2025. The positive performance in FY24 strengthens ACES's commitment to expanding to more areas in Indonesia, both physically and through its omnichannel. ACES plans to expand to the easternmost region of Indonesia, with a target of opening 25-30 new stores in 2025. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.38% and Terminal Growth of 2.5%, we estimate ACES's fair value at IDR 685 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on ACES with a lower target and potential upside of 37.00%.

BBCA's net profit grew 9.8% YoY to IDR14.1 trillion in 3M25 (IDR56.6 trillion Annualized or 25% of our 2025F). A maintained Term Deposit Rate accompanied BBCA's Third Party Fund growth. Third Party Funds (TPF) grew 6.5% YoY to IDR1.2 trillion in 3M25. Increased third-party funds (TPF) also accompanied this credit growth. BBCA's TPF grew 2.9% YoY to IDR1.134 trillion in FY24, with the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) growing 4.4% YoY. BBCA's Term Deposit Rate fell 90 bps YoY to 3.15%. Quarterly, BBCA's TD rate also recorded a decline of 20 bps (3.13% in 4Q24). BBCA's loan growth grew 12.6% YoY to IDR941 trillion in 3M25 (vs industry 9.16%).Corporate loan supported this growth, which rose 13.9% YoY, followed by Consumer loan (+11.3% YoY). BBCA's asset quality remains healthy amid macroeconomic fluctuations. Gross NPL is above BBCA's gross NPL in the last four years (2%). Strong customer relationships are BBCA's competitive advantage. Customers increased by 7% YoY to 33 million in 3M25, with BCA's mobile banking transaction volume reaching 9.9 billion transactions (+19% YoY) in 3M25. We maintain our BUY recommendation for BBCA shares, with an estimated fair value of Rp11,400. This assessment is based on the Dividend Discount Model and relative valuation analysis, which is still below 4.37x average +1 St. Dev P/B 5 years. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

25 April 2025

Rally indeks-indeks Wall Street memasuki hari ketiga di Kamis (24/4). Meta catatkan kinerja 1Q25 yang lebih baik dari ekspektasi yang membangun ekspektasi kinerja serupa pada perusahaan-perusahaan teknologi lainnya. Menteri Perdagangan Tiongkok, He Yadong bahwa tidak ada negosiasi dan belum ada rencana negosiasi dengan AS. Harga emas catat rebound 1.4% ke US$3,334/troy oz di Kamis (24/4) dipicu aksi bargain hunting pasca pelemahan signfikan beberapa hari terakhir. Koreksi IHSG di Kamis (24/4) mendorong terbentuknya death cross di overbought area pada Stochastic RSI. Investor Asing lanjutkan net Sell, bahkan cenderung meningkat (Rp514 miliar) di Kamis (24/4). IHSG rawan pullback lanjutan ke kisaran 6575-6600 di Jumat (25/4). Dari dalam negeri, data atau sentimen domestik relatif minim pasca RDG BI (23/4). BI memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia akan cenderung berada di batas bawah proyeksi BI di 4.7%-5.5%. Top picks (25/4) : ASII, KLBF, CLEO, ISAT dan INDF.

Durable Goods Orders di AS naik 9.2% MoM menjadi $315.7 miliar di Maret 2025,mencatat kenaikan tiga bulan berturut-turut dan jauh melampaui ekspektasi pasar sebesar 2%. Kenaikan ini terutama didorong oleh pesanan pesawat komersial, dengan peralatan transportasi naik 27%, terutama pesawat komersil dan suku cadangnya sebesar 139%. Sementara itu, pesanan barang consumer discretionary di luar pesawat hanya naik tipis 0.1%, di bawah perkiraan 0.2%. Menteri Keuangan RI, Sri Mulyani Indrawati memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 2025 tetap mencapai sekitar 5%, meskipun Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memangkas proyeksi menjadi 4.7%. Proyeksi ini didukung oleh konsumsi rumah tangga yang kuat, belanja pemerintah, serta investasi yang meningkat, dengan realisasi investasi 1Q25 mencapai Rp465.2 triliun atau naik 15.9% YoY.

ANTM reported revenue of IDR25.99 trillion in 4Q24 (+29.88% QoQ; +156.09% YoY), bringing FY24 revenue to IDR69.19 trillion, up 68.57% YoY (vs. FY23: IDR41.05 trillion). This growth was mainly driven by robust growth in gold revenue, which jumped 120.34% YoY to IDR57.56 trillion (vs. FY23: IDR26.12 trillion). Gold sales surpassed management's guidance by 17.22% in FY24 (vs. 37.35 tons / 1,200,959 troy ounces). By the end of 2024, gold sales had reached 43.78 tons (1,407,431 troy ounces). ANTM's gold selling price significantly increased, climbing to IDR1.52 million per gram on December 25, 2024 (-1.25% MoM; +25.46% YoY). Despite the higher price, sales growth remained strong and rose by 67.5% YoY (vs. FY23: 26.13 tons / 840,067 troy ounces). This advancement was driven by increased domestic demand amid geopolitical tensions, which the company capitalized on by ramping up production and strengthening reserves through an annual gold purchase of 30 tons from Freeport's smelter starting in 2025. The nickel segment is expected to be optimized in FY25. Following the approval of the Work Plan and Budget for 2024, management aims to increase nickel ore production to 16.9 million wmt (+102.29% from 8.35 million wmt in FY24). Overcoming these regulatory challenges is anticipated to significantly enhance operational capacity, facilitating recovery in nickel-related revenue streams. Using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation method, with a required rate of return of 8.97% and a terminal growth rate of 1.15%, we estimate ANTM’s fair value at IDR2,400 per share (implying 13.37x / 1.58x expected P/E and P/BV). This positive outlook is fueled by rising domestic demand, increasing gold prices, and improved efficiency in reducing ferronickel production cash costs.