Bank of England memutuskan untuk menurunkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 0.25% menjadi 4.25% pada Mei 2025, dengan suara 5 banding 4. Dua anggota menginginkan penurunan lebih besar ke 4%, sementara dua lainnya memilih mempertahankan di 4.5%. Keputusan ini mencerminkan kemajuan penurunan inflasi seiring meredanya ketidakpastian eksternal dan kebijakan moneter yang ketat, dengan inflasi CPI turun menjadi 2.6% YoY di Maret 2025. Cadangan devisa Indonesia turun menjadi US$152.5 miliar di April 2025 dari US$157.1 miliar di Maret 2025. Penurunan ini terutama disebabkan oleh pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah dan intervensi Bank Indonesia untuk menstabilkan rupiah di tengah ketidakpastian pasar keuangan global yang terus berlanjut. Meskipun turun, cadangan devisa tersebut masih cukup untuk membiayai 6.4 bulan impor atau 6.2 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah.

9 May 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat di Kamis (8/5). Penguatan dipicu oleh pengumuman trade deals dengan Inggris. Presiden AS, Donald Trump mengingidikasikan bahwa negara-negara dengan trade surplus besar dengan AS kemungkinan masih akan dikenakan tarif tinggi. AS tengah mempersiapkan delegasi untuk melakukan pertemuan dengan delegasi Tiongkok di Swiss pada Sabtu (10/5) dan Minggu (11/5). Trade deal antara AS dengan Inggris tersebut memicu lonjakan pada U.S. 10-year Bond Yield sebesar 11 bps ke 4.39% di Kamis (8/5). Aksi jual juga terjadi pada safe-haven, seperti emas. Harga emas turun 1.7% ke US$3,307.84/troy oz di Kamis (8/5). IHSG berpeluang uji support pada kisaran level 6770 dalam beberapa hari kedepan. Pullback harga saham gold-related diperkirakan masih akan berlanjut, sejalan dengan kecenderungan penurunan appetite pasar terhadap safe-haven pasca pengumuman trade deals. Top picks (9/5) : ICBP, AALI, ASII, PTBA dan INDF. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves decreased by 2.93% MoM to US$ 152.5 billion in April 2025, down from US$ 157.1 billion in March 2025. This decline was primarily driven by government external debt repayments and currency stabilization measures in response to heightened global financial market uncertainty. Despite the decrease, the current level of reserves remains robust, equivalent to the financing of 6.4 months of imports or 6.2 months of imports, and government external debt payments are well above the international adequacy standard of approximately 3 months of imports.

The Fed has maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7, 2025. The Fed Committee assessed that the latest economic indicators continue to show solid expansion in the US economy. The unemployment rate has remained stable at low levels in recent months, and the labor market remains strong, even though inflation data is still relatively high and the value of the trade balance continues to fluctuate.

CPIN booked revenue growth of 11.3% YoY to IDR17.7 trillion in 1Q25. This growth was driven by increased sales in all CPIN's business segments, except for the others segment, which decreased by 9.75% YoY to IDR303 billion in 1Q25. CPIN's operating expenses decreased by 3.64% YoY to IDR973 billion in 1Q25. This decrease was mainly due to a 3.7% YoY decrease in selling expenses to IDR541 billion and a 390% YoY increase in other operating income to IDR126 billion, in line with the net gain from the sales of culled birds in 1Q25. This condition caused CPIN's operating profit to increase by 97.2% YoY to IDR2.1 trillion in 1Q25. CPIN's net profit grew 116.4% YoY to IDR1.53 trillion in 1Q25. Aside from solid operating profit along with operational efficiency, CPIN's net profit growth was also driven by a 514% YoY increase in finance income from interest on current accounts and deposits to IDR34 billion and a 29% YoY decrease in finance expense to IDR147 billion as interest expense from bank debt decreased to IDR133 billion in 1Q25. Based on CPIN's 1Q25 performance, we maintain our Buy rating for CPIN with the same projection and fair value as CPIN's previous company update at IDR5,400 per share or a potential upside of 11.34%.

TLKM reported 1Q25 revenue of IDR 36.64 trillion (-2.9% QoQ; -2.1% YoY), in line with expectations (Phintas: 23.72%, Cons: 23.60%). The decline was driven by weaker performance in Data, Internet & IT Services, which contracted -5.42% YoY. However, the IndiHome segment grew by +0.41% QoQ (+3.45% YoY) to IDR 6.66 trillion. Operationally, administrative expenses rose by 18.83% YoY due to seasonal effects, while marketing expenses decreased by -40.90% QoQ, reflecting cost efficiency. TLKM recorded an EBITDA of IDR 18.23 trillion (-0.92% QoQ; -6.12% YoY) with a margin of 49.76%, and net profit reached IDR 5.81 trillion (-2.75% QoQ; -4.01% YoY). Telkomsel’s deliberate churn elimination led to a 0.9% YoY decline in subscribers to 158.8 million, though postpaid subscribers increased by 6.2% YoY. ARPU declined to IDR 42.4k, but data consumption grew 5.3% QoQ (+19.78% YoY). IndiHome added 230K new net subscribers, with convergence penetration at 55%. BTS units increased to 278K, including 1,910 5G BTS (+169.1% YoY). Commitment to improving market conditions through starter pack price adjustments is expected to restore market rationality and drive long-term profitability. While this strategy should gradually boost ARPU, it may result in a slight decline in subscriber numbers. As a result, we forecast modest revenue growth of 1.68% YoY for FY25E and 2.46% YoY for FY26F. Despite the flat revenue growth, we expect TLKM’s EBITDA margin to improve, reaching 49.87% in FY25E and 50.37% in FY26F. The company's ability to sustain profitability amid a challenging environment underscores its operational efficiency. With a combination of steady revenue and high interest expenses, we estimate TLKM’s net profit at IDR 22.41 trillion for FY25E, with a net profit margin of 14.69%, highlighting the company’s resilience and capacity for stable financial performance. We maintain a BUY rating with a new target price of IDR 2,950, implying a forward EV/EBITDA of 4.55×/4.33× for FY25F/FY26F. TLKM’s stock trades at a 22.7% discount to the 5-year average, supported by a buyback plan and dividends. Downside risks include ARPU pressure, competition, and weakened purchasing power. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research –Disclaimer On– Contact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuan pada kisaran 4.25%-4.50% di Mei 2025 untuk ketiga kalinya dalam FOMC, sesuai ekspektasi pasar. Hal ini terjadi di tengah kekhawatiran bahwa tarif baru Presiden Trump dapat mendorong inflasi dan memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ketua Fed, Jerome Powell menegaskan bahwa bank sentral akan bersikap sabar dan menunggu data terbaru sebelum mengambil langkah penyesuaian, mengingat risiko inflasi dan pengangguran yang meningkat. Penjualan ritel di kawasan Euro turun 0.10 MoM di Maret 2025, setelah sebelumnya naik 0.20% MoM di Februari 2025 dan di bawah ekspektasi pasar yang memperkirakan pertumbuhan stagnan. Penurunan ini terjadi pada penjualan produk non-makanan dan makanan, minuman, serta tembakau yang masing-masing turun 0.10% MoM, sementara penjualan bahan bakar justru naik 0.40% MoM.

8 May 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street catat rebound di Rabu (7/5). Delegasi AS dan Tiongkok dijadwalkan mengadakan pertemuan di Swiss pada Sabtu (10/5) dan Minggu (11/5). Hasil positif dari pertemuan tersebut diharapkan mampu meredam kekhawatiran risiko ekonomi (lonjakan inflasi, kenaikan angka pengangguran dan perlambatan ekonomi) yang disampaikan the Fed pasca pengumuman hasil FOMC (7/5). The Fed menahan sukubunga acuan di level 4.5%. Tiongkok menurunkan suku bunga reverse repo tujuh hari menjadi 1.4% dari 1.5% di Mei 2025, serta menurunkan rasio cadangan perbankan sebesar 50 basis poin menjadi 6.2% di Mei. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield cenderung sideways di level 4.269% (-0.006%). Harga emas kembali alami pullback (-1.1%) pasca uji resistance level US$3,400/troy oz di Rabu (7/5). IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada rentang 6850-6970 pada perdagangan Kamis (8/5). Top picks (8/5) : SMRA, CTRA, PWON, ACES, TOWR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K.