27 March 2025

CPIN booked revenue growth of 9.51% YoY to IDR67.48 trillion in FY24. The revenue growth was driven by significant growth in Day Old Chick (DOC) segment sales by 37.39% YoY, Processed Chicken segment by 19.31% YoY, and Broiler segment by 11.3% YoY. We expect CPIN's DOC, Processed Chicken, and Broiler segments' sales performance can potentially continue its positive trend in 1Q25 in line with the potential increase in demand during the Ramadhan period and ahead of Eid al-Fitr. CPIN's Broiler segment booked an operating profit of IDR2.03 trillion in FY24, the highest since 2019. The segment's operating profit was driven by a 9.96% QoQ or 10.38% YoY increase in the average price of broilers in 4Q24 to IDR20,174/kg, which resulted in the broiler segment's sales increased by 9.75% QoQ or 27.52% YoY to IDR9.28 trillion in 4Q24. CPIN's net profit increased by 60.11% YoY to IDR3.71 trillion in FY24. In addition to positive revenue performance in FY24, CPIN's net profit was driven by a decrease in operating expenses by 15.31% QoQ or 4.46% YoY to IDR4.23 trillion in FY24 as a result of a gain on changes in fair value of biological assets as well as other operating income. CPIN's financial income also increased by 56.58% YoY to IDR44 billion in FY24 from interest earned on current accounts and deposits, mainly on call deposits. CPIN Business Plan 2025. CPIN plans to build an animal feed factory in South Sulawesi to increase production capacity and expand its marketing network in Eastern Indonesia. We assess that this plan can potentially improve the performance of CPIN's animal feed segment, which experienced a decline in operating profit by 12.67% YoY to IDR3.98 trillion in FY24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.67% and Terminal Growth of 4%, we estimate CPIN's fair value at IDR5,400 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on CPIN with a lower target and potential upside of 22.73%.

SMRA's net profit grew 79% YoY to IDR1.34 trillion in FY24. This growth aligns with revenue growth of 60% YoY to IDR10.62 trillion in FY24 Performance improvement is accompanied by stable funding quality. SMRA's marketing sales increased by 62% QoQ in FY24, supported by the beginning of project sales in Summarecon Tangerang in 4Q24. Three hundred ten units (5% of the landbank) in Summarecon Tangerang have been built, with 124 units sold in FY24.Thus, the continued development of Summarecon Tangerang can support SMRA's marketing sales in the future. Government stimulus has the potential to optimize SMRA's marketing sales achievement. SMRA targets marketing sales to reach IDR5 trillion in FY25. This target is a 15% increase compared to FY24. We estimate SMRA's fair value to be 600 (5.17x expected P/E FY25F and 65% discount to NAV) using discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods. Considering SMRA's fair price and performance, we maintain our buy rating for SMRA with a potential upside of 59.21%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

US New Home Sales meningkat sebesar 1.8% di Februari 2025 menjadi sebesar 676.000 unit, setelah mengalami penurunan sebesar 6.9% di Januari 2025, meskipun masih sedikit di bawah ekspektasi pasar yaitu 680.000 unit. Sementara itu, Indeks Kepercayaan    Konsumen Conference Board turun 7.2 di Maret 2025 sebab pesimis terhadap bisnis kedepan dari kelompok usia 55 tahun namun pada usia dibawah 35    tahun kepercayaan konsumen meningkat. New Passenger Car Registration di zona Euro turun sebesar 3.4% YoY menjadi 853.670 unit di Februari 2025dari 2.6% YoY di Januari 20205. Namun, segmen kendaraan listrik bertenaga baterai (BEV) justru melonjak 23.7% menjadi 131.275 unit, dengan pangsa pasar mencapai 15.4%.    

Indeks-indeks Wall Street dan Eropa kompak menguat di Selasa (25/3). Pelemahan data ekonomi AS, memperkuat potensi pelonggaran tarif AS. US CB Consumers Confidence turun ke 92.9 di Maret, lebih rendah dari 100.1 di Februari dan konsensus (94). German 10 yr Bond Yield, meningkat dari 2.794% Senin (24/3) menjadi 2.801% di Selasa (25/3). IHSG berpotensi rebound lanjutan ke kisaran 6300-6330 di Rabu (26/3). Di dalam negeri, pasar masih mencerna terkait susunan pengurus, rencana investasi, dan komposisi kepemilikan Danantara di BUMN yang menjadi anggotanya. Selain itu, investor merespon positif dividen yang akan dibagikan sejumlah emiten, terutama big four bank. Top picks (26/3) : BMRI, BBRI, TLKM, ASII, dan ANTM. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Nurwachidah - Disclaimer On -

26 March 2025

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash AS turun menjadi 49.8 di Maret 2025 dari 52.7 di Februari 2025 dan di bawah ekspektasi pasar sebesar 51.8. Sektor manufaktur       mengalami kontraksi, dengan produksi menurun setelah kenaikan tinggi pada Februari dan menurunnya pesanan baru. Sebaliknya S&P Global Services PMI Flash naik menjadi 54.3 di Maret 2025 dari 51 di  Februari 2025, melebihi ekspektasi pasar sebesar 50.8, menunjukkan ekspansi sektor jasa ditopang oleh aliran bisnis yang membaik dan    permintaan pelanggan yang lebih kuat. HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash Zona Euro naik menjadi 48.7 di Maret 2025 dari 47.6 di Februari 2025, melampaui perkiraan 48.2. Hal ini disebabkan oleh penurunan penjualan ekspor sementara biaya tenaga kerja dan bahan baku seperti logam mengalami kenaikan. Lembaga pemeringkat kredit global Moody’s kembali mempertahankan peringkat kredit Indonesia pada Baa2 dengan prospek stabil, didukung oleh ketahanan ekonomi yang kuat dengan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata sekitar 5% pada 2025-2026, sumber daya alam melimpah, demografi yang solid, serta kebijakan fiskal dan moneter yang disiplin, meskipun terdapat kelemahan fiskal seperti basis pendapatan rendah dan risiko transisi karbon sebagai eksportir komoditas utama.  

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat signifikan pada perdagangan Senin (24/3). Pernyataan Presiden AS, Donald Trump mengindikasikan penerapan reciprocal tariff yang lebih selektif dan potensi perluasan dan/atau perpanjangan penundaan implementasi tarif pada sektor otomotif dan farmasi. U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI turun ke 49.8 di Maret 2025 dari 52.7 di Februari 2025, juga lebih rendah dari perkiraa di 51.9. Kebijakan tarif AS akan menjadi fokus pelaku pasar. Kebijakan inward looking ini justru nampaknya mulai berdampak negatif pada ekonomi AS sendiri. Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI turun ke 48.3 di Maret dari 46.5 di Februari. Menjelang implementasi reciprocal tariff tersebut, U.S. 10-year Bond Yield melanjutkan penguatannya ke level 4.338% (+0.007%) di Senin (24/3). Intraday rebound IHSG di Senin (24/3) berpotensi berlanjut ke kisaran 6230-6250 di Selasa (25/3). BBRI (24/3), BMRI (25/3) dan BBNI (26/3) dijadwalkan melaksanakan RUPS apda pekan ini, dengan salah satu mata acara penentuan dividen tahun buku 2024. Top picks (25/3) : CLEO, ULTJ, ISAT, SIDO dan TAPG. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

25 March 2025

MBMA's net profit dropped by -61.8% QoQ to USD 13.78 million in 3Q24. This issue arises from lowered production and negative margins in the High-Grade Nickel Matte (HGNM). Mining exploration has increased to achieve the demand for 9 million wmt limonite ore annually, driven by the presence of High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) plants at PT ESG ("PT ESG New Energy Material") and PT Meiming ("PT Meiming New Energy Material") in 2025. Opportunity to provide batteries for electric vehicles (EVs). MBMA has successfully produced 164,985 tonnes of acid and 225,036 tonnes of steam, while its two HPAL plants with GEM Co., Ltd. are set to optimally produce Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) in 2025. This advancement will allow MBMA to maintain its market share and revenue streams through enhanced downstream operational capabilities, acquisition of nickel processing facilities, product diversification, and expansive nickel ore resources. We estimate MBMA's fair value at Rp525 (implying 32.17x/2.2x expected P/E and P/BV). This positive outlook is driven by the expected additional sales of more than 25,000 tonnes of Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), cost efficiency, and optimization of mining explorations. Therefore, we maintain our buy rating for MBMA with a potential upside of 77.46%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -