INDF : Consumer Branded Product Segment Drives Revenue in 9M24
INDF's revenue grew 11.86% QoQ or 3.64% YoY to IDR86.9 trillion in 9M24. INDF's revenue growth in 9M24 was driven by the revenue of the Consumer Branded Product (CBP) segment, which rose 9.14% QoQ or 8.38% YoY to IDR55.57 trillion. However, three other segments, namely Bogasari, Agribusiness, and Distribution, experienced revenue decline in 9M24.
All operating segments recorded operating profit growth. All three of INDF's operating segments could still record operating profit growth despite sales pressure in 9M24 (Table 3). Agribusiness segment recorded the most significant operating profit growth of 63.74% YoY to Rp1.88 trillion (vs. 1.15 trillion in 9M23).
Rising Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices drove the Agribusiness segment's operating profit growth in 9M24. From January to September 2024, the average CPO price increased by 3.78% YoY to MYR4,006/ton. We assess that the Agribusiness segment has attractive prospects going forward, along with the new government's targets and policies that could potentially benefit this segment.
INDF's net profit growth in 9M24 was driven by improved non-operating performance. During 9M24, INDF's net profit reached Rp12.29 trillion, growing 180% QoQ or 25.33% YoY. This growth was driven by the strengthening of the Rupiah against the US$ so that INDF could reverse the loss on foreign exchange in 2Q24 into profit on foreign exchange in 3Q24.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.58% and Terminal Growth of 2.75%, we estimate INDF's fair value at IDR8,196 per share (Expected PE at 6.04x and EV/EBITDA at 3.90x in FY24). Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on INDF with a higher target and potential upside of 10.01%.
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BMRI: Strong Wholesale Business Positioning Amidst Tight Competition
BMRI's net profit of 9M24 grew 7.6% yoy to 78% of our FY24 estimate. BMRI recorded a net profit of IDR42 trillion (+7.6% yoy) in 9M24.
Wholesale Business remains the highest compared to peers. BMRI recorded a total credit of IDR1.6 trillion, increasing by 20.8% yoy in 9M24.
Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew by 15% in 9M24. BMRI recorded CASA of IDR1.2 trillion (+15% yoy) in 9M24, with a CASA ratio of 73.8% (+12 bps) yoy.
Non-Performing Loans (NPL) fell 36 bps yoy to 1.13 in 9M24. This achievement also continues the downward trend in NPL in the last three years (NPL of (2.72 in FY21, 1.92 in FY22, and 1.19 in FY23).
BMRI's credit growth is targeted at 16%-18% in FY24F.Several factors, such as improving domestic consumption, the realization of private and government investment, a continuation of National Strategic Projects. BMRI's strong position in the wholesale segment allows BMRI to optimize these positive catalysts.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.52% and Terminal Growth of 3.39%, we estimate BMRI's fair value at 7,900 (12.37x expected P/E). Therefore, we still give BMRI a buy rating with a potential upside of 18.77%.
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BRIS: Innovation Maintains BRIS Profits Growth
BRIS net profit grew 21.6% yoy to IDR5.1 trillion in 9M24. Net Margin Income of IDR12.6 trillion grew 3.5% yoy in 9M24.
BRIS recorded financing growth of 8.09% yoy to IDR318.5 trillion in 9M24. Consumer financing growth (+16.27% yoy) supported this growth, which contributed 54.57% to BRIS total 9M24 financing.
Tier 1 ROE increased significantly (+740 bps yoy) in 9M24. BRIS recorded an ROE of 17.59% in 9M24, higher than 16.85% in 9M23 and 16.88% in FY23.
The gold business could be a booster for BRIS' performance. BRIS focuses on increasing its gold business in 2024.BRIS' gold business was able to record significant growth of +60.53% yoy to IDR 15.7 trillion in 9M24 with a contribution of 4.07% of total revenue.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.85% and Terminal Growth of 7.83%, we estimate the fair value of BRIS at 3,300 (23.69x expected P/E). Considering BRIS's fair price and relative valuation of around 2.4x 5-year Mean P/B, we give a buy rating for BRIS with a potential upside of 11.89%.
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ISAT: Strong EBITDA, Sustainable Growth amidst Tight Competition
ISAT’s 3Q24 revenue reached IDR 13.84 trillion, marking an 8.20% YoY increase but a slight 2.16% decrease from the previous quarter.
The cumulative 9M24 revenue of IDR 41.82 trillion represents an 11.61% YoY increase, covering 78% of the full-year forecast. Net profit grew by 40.50% YoY in 3Q24 but saw a 22.23% quarterly decline
The Multimedia, Data Communication, and Internet (MIDI) segment grew significantly, with a 31.91% YoY increase. However, Cellular segment revenue, while up by 5.80% YoY, experienced a 2.60% QoQ decline.
ISAT’s 3Q24 EBITDA stood at IDR 6.59 trillion (up 8.29% YoY), with a marginal decline in EBITDA margin to 47.62%
ISAT added 3,000 BTS towers in 2024, improving reach to 2.1 million people and extending services to 370 new villages.
Enhanced distribution with 2,000 rural distribution points and 2,500 new service points, along with the launch of the Digital Intelligence Operations Center (DIOC) for real-time network monitoring
A stronger performance is expected in 4Q24, driven by anticipated data demand during the Pilkada, Christmas, and New Year seasons. An upcoming frequency auction could further enhance network capacity if ISAT secures additional frequencies
The company retains a "BUY" rating with a target price of IDR 3,000, anticipating an 18.80% upside. Potential risks include price competition, regulatory shifts, and high-interest rates.
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BSDE : Township, Has the Potential to Support BSDE Income Again
Net profit grew 52.72% yoy to IDR2.7 trillion in 9M24. This growth is in line with the increase in revenue of 37.75% yoy to IDR10.1 trillion in 9M24.
BSD City is designated as a National Strategic Project (PSN). This project is carried out in approximately 59.6 hectares, focusing on developing the education, biomedical, and digital regions, with an estimated investment value of Rp18.55
trillion.
BSDE marketing sales achieved 72% of the 2024F marketing sales target. BSDE posted marketing sales of IDR6.84 trillion (+1% yoy) in 9M24.
Net profit is projected to return above IDR2.9 trillion in FY24F. During the election period in 3M24, BSDE was able to record growth in marketing sales (+3% yoy) and revenue (+31% yoy).
Net profit is projected to return above IDR 2.9 trillion in FY24F.
Using discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate BSDE's fair value to be 1425 (8.64x expected P/E FY24F and 67% discount to NAV). Considering BSDE's fair price, we give BSDE a buy rating with a potential upside of 16.82%.
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MYOR: Rising Raw Material Prices Put Pressure on 9M24 Financial Performance
MYOR recorded revenue growth of 11.99% YoY to IDR25.63 trillion in 9M24. The revenue growth was driven by revenue in the Packaged Food Processing segment, which grew by 36.84% QoQ or 14% YoY to IDR15.5 trillion in 9M24. Meanwhile, Packaged Beverages Processing segment grew by 18.19% QoQ or 21.23% YoY to IDR12.37 trillion in 9M24.
Rising raw material prices pressured MYOR's margin in 9M24. MYOR's cost of goods sold was recorded at IDR18.86 trillion in 9M24, up 16.47% YoY from IDR16.19 trillion in 9M23, which caused Gross Profit Margin (GPM) in 9M24 to depress 26.43% (vs. 29.26% in 9M23). The decline in GPM was due to the surge in Cocoa and Coffee prices. During 9M24, the average price of Cocoa increased by 155% YoY to US$7,853/ton (vs. US$3,085/ton in 9M23). Meanwhile, the average price of Coffee increased by 27.59% YoY to US$219/Lbs (vs. US$172/Lbs in 9M23)
MYOR seeks to maintain performance by increasing sales. Faced with the challenges of rising prices of Cocoa and Coffee raw materials, MYOR continues to drive sales growth by adjusting product selling prices, innovating products, and expanding export reach to several new destination countries to potentially maintain future performance.
MYOR recorded a stable net profit at IDR2 trillion in 9M24. On a quarterly basis, MYOR's net profit fell 50.47% QoQ to IDR308 billion in 3Q24 (vs. IDR606 billion in 2Q24). We assess MYOR's net profit in 3Q24 to be depressed due to the surge in Cocoa and Coffee commodity prices, reducing MYOR's GPM. MYOR's net profit in 9M24 was below our estimate as it was only 62.72% of our FY24F.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 7.12% and Terminal Growth of 4.55%, we estimate MYOR's fair value at IDR2,880 per share (Expected PE at 20.38x and EV/EBITDA at 11.86x in FY24). Therefore, we maintain a Buy rating on MYOR with lower target and potential upside of 11.62%.
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BBRI : Asset Quality Back to Management Guideline
BBRI recorded a net profit of IDR45.36 trillion, growing 2.6% yoy in 9M24. This result grew in line with our FY24F estimate (73%).
BBRI's Non-Performing Loan (NPL) is back to management's target. Gross NPL fell 170 bps yoy to 2.90% in 9M24 and lower than 2.95% in FY23.
BBRI's credit grew 8.2% yoy to IDR1.353 trillion in 9M24. This growth was supported by corporate loans (+17% yoy) and consumer loans (+10% yoy), which contributed 18% and 15% to BBRI's revenue, respectively.
Regarding customer deposits, the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew by 6.5% in 9M24. BBRI recorded total third-party funds of IDR1.362 trillion (+5.6% yoy) in 9M24.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.72% and Terminal Growth of 4.72%, we estimate BBRI's fair value at 5,925 (14.31x expected P/E FY24F). Considering BBRI's fair price, we maintain our buy rating for BBRI with a lower target than before and a potential upside of 25.79%.
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PWON: Diverse Business Portfolio Maintains Profit Growth
PWON's revenue increased by 4.74% year over year to IDR4.79 trillion in 9M24. This revenue was primarily driven by space rental revenue, which contributed 31.35% of total revenue in 9M24.
PWON's diverse property business portfolio minimizes performance fluctuations due to high interest rates.
PWON continues to expand its products and actively acquires its landbank.
PWON targets revenue growth in marketing sales and NLA in FY24. PWON projects a 34% increase in shopping center NLA in 2023-2029, PWON has set a 15% yoy growth for marketing sales to IDR1.5 trillion in FY24.
Using discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate PWON's fair value to be 595 (11.52x expected P/E FY24F and 68% discount to NAV). Considering PWON's fair price, we give PWON a buy rating with a potential upside of 24.09%.
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BTPS: Stay Focused on Consumer Empowerment
BTPS's net profit fell 24% yoy to IDR771 billion in 9M24. This performance is the impact of BTPS being more conservative in distributing financing in 2024 to maintain BTPS's asset quality.
BTPS continues to make efforts to improve asset quality. Net Non-Performing Financing (NPF) of 0.0% in 9M24 is lower than 0.7% in 9M23 and 0.3% in FY23.
Consumer empowerment to increase consumer loyalty.The number of customers is 265.7 thousand communities, with the number of active customers being 3.87 million in 9M24 compared to 258 thousand communities in 9M23.
BTPS focuses on developing new features for Tepat mobile banking.BTPS will facilitate the receipt of cash waqf and develop the Cash Waqf Linked Deposit feature (so that waqf funds can be invested in sharia financial instruments such as deposits).
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.10% and Terminal Growth of 2.08%, we estimate BTPS' fair value at 1,315 (12.52x expected P/E). Considering BTPS' fair price and relative valuation below 1.82x –1 standard deviation of 5-year P/B, we give BTPS a buy rating with a potential upside of 21.70%.
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BBNI : Digital Initiative to Boost Revenue
Net profit grew 3.5% yoy to Rp16.31 trillion in 9M24. This increase was in line with the increase in Interest income by 7.3% yoy to Rp48.84 trillion.
Total loans reached IDR735 trillion in 9M24, growing 9.5% yoy and 1.1% qoq. Corporate loans grew 15.1% yoy to IDR409.2 trillion, contributing 56% of total loans in 9M24.
Declining trend of Loan at Risk (LAR). BBNI targets LAR in 2024F to reach below 10%. BBNI's LAR was recorded at 11.8% ytd, down 360 bps
Realization of the performance of a new growth engine for BBNI.Hibank targets the portion of MSME credit in 2024F to reach 45% from the previous 19% in FY23.
Wondr by BNI and BNI direct drive BBNI CASA growth. As of 9M24, Wondr has acquired 225 thousand new users, with around 70% of BNI's retail savings coming from Wondr.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 11.05% and Terminal Growth of 4.65%, we estimate BBNI's fair value at 6,350 (19.24x expected P/E). Therefore, we maintain a buy rating with a lower fair value and potential upside of 15.42%.
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