25 February 2025

>Indeks-indeks Wall Street ditutup mayoritas melemah, sementara bursa Eropa ditutup beragam pada Senin (24/2). >Kekhawatiran dari implementasi kebijakan tarif oleh Trump kembali meningkat seiring dengan perkiraan beberapa rilis data ekonomi yang lebih rendah pada Selasa (25/2). >Bursa Eropa merespon hasil quick count pemilu di Jerman yang menujukkan kemenangan Friedrich Merz dari koalisi partai CSU dan CDU. >Selain itu, GDP 4Q24 Jerman diperkirakan berada di level -0.20% YoY membaik dari level sebelumnya yang berada pada -0.30% YoY di 3Q24. >Dari domestik, investor masih mencerna peresmian Danantara pada Senin (24/2). Danantara dapat memberikan dampak positif, namun investor masih menilai transparansi lembaga tersebut. >Top Picks Selasa (25/2): SIDO, UNTR, INDF, LSIP dan PGEO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Nurwachidah - Disclaimer On -  

24 February 2025

24 February 2025

Sell-off dialami mayoritas indeks Wall Street di Jumat (21/2). Pelemahan ini dipicu oleh kekhawatiran outlook pertumbuhan ekonomi AS pasca realisasi penurunan Michigan Consumer Sentiment ke 64.7 di Februari 2025 dari 71.1 di Januari 2025. Sejumlah petinggi the Fed kembali dijadwalkan menyampaikan pidato di pekan ini. IHSG masih berada dalam fase minor bullish reversal meski cenderung terkonsolidasi di atas 6800 hingga Jumat (21/2). IHSG diperkirakan mencoba keluar dari area konsolidasi dengan uji level psikologis berikutnya di 6900 pada pekan ini. Fokus pasar diperkirakan mulai beralih pada antisipasi pengumuman dividen, khususnya perusahaan-perusahaan yang secara historis rutin membagikan dividen besar (IDX High Div. 20). Top picks : ASII, BBCA, BRPT, CPIN, INCO, AUTO, dan NCKL.

Balance of Payment: US$ 7.9 billion Current Account: US$ -1.1 billion Capital and Financial Account : US$ 8.5 billion Indonesia's Balance of Payments (BOP) surplus increased by 34.1% QoQ to US$7.9 billion in 4Q24. It was supported by a portfolio investment surplus of US$8.5 billion, while the current account recorded a deficit of US$1.1 billion, or 0.3% of Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves grew by 3.9% to US$155.7 billion, equivalent to 6.5 months of import financing throughout 2024. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

21 February 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Kamis (20/2). Masih terdapat peluang pemangkasan Fed Funds Rate (FFR) sebanyak 2 kali di tahun 2025F Data ketenagakerjaan di AS cenderung stabil. US Initial jobless claim sebesar 219 ribu di pekan kedua Februari vs. 214 ribu di pertama Februari. Euro Area Consumer confidence flash meningkat 60 bps ke level -13.6 di Februari dari -14.2 di Januari. IHSG berpotensi terkonsolidasi dikisaran level 6,725-6,875 pada perdagangan Jumat (21/2). Manufacturing PMI Flash Jepang bulan Februari yang diperkirakan naik ke level 49 dari level 48.7 di Januari, menandakan bahwa sektor manufaktur Jepang membaik meskipun masih berada di zona kontraksi. Top picks di Jumat (21/2) adalah ENRG, HRUM, TINS, JSMR, dan GJTL. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Nurwachidah - Disclaimer On -

BI Maintains Interest Rate, Prioritizes Rupiah Stability Amid Global Uncertainty BI 7-day Repo Rate: 5.75% Deposit Facility: 5.00% Lending Facility: 6.50% The Bank of Indonesia's Board of Governors Meeting (RDG BI) maintained the interest rate at 5.75%, with a Deposit Facility Rate of 5.00% and a Lending Facility Rate of 6.50% on February 19, 2025. Additionally, BI observed The Fed's interest rate policy, which is expected to cut rates only once by 25 bps in early 2H25. US Treasury Yields (UST) for 10-year and 2-year bonds are expected to remain high due to fiscal deficit planning of 7.7% and 8.8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, and discussions about eliminating the debt ceiling. The Dollar Index (DXY) also remains strong, reaching its highest level in the past year at 109.77, putting pressure on the rupiah against the US dollar. BI focuses on exchange rate stability to maintain economic growth amid ongoing global turbulence through open market operations in Spot markets, Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF), and Government Securities (SBN) in the secondary market. BI considers its efforts successful in maintaining exchange rates at levels comparable to or in line with the currency pair groups of countries such as China, Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

20 February 2025