Indeks-indeks global, di AS dan Eropa melemah di Jumat (19/7). Terjadi global IT blackout yang sempat mengganggu operasional sejumlah bidang usaha dan pelayanan umum di Jumat (19/7). Pelemahan indeks-indeks utama di Wall Street (19/7) juga masih dipicu oleh rotasi ke saham-saham berkapitalisasi kecil yang diyakini pasar memperoleh keuntungan signifikan dari pemangkasan sukubunga acuan oleh the Fed. Pasar juga terpengaruh keputusan ECB untuk menahan sukubunga acuan (18/7) dan nada hawkish dari petinggi ECB terkait peluang pemangkasan lanjutan kedepan. Dari dalam negeri, pasar menantikan data investasi riil oleh BKPM. Pasar nampaknya sudah mengantisipasi kemungkinan perlambatan pertumbuhan investasi riil. IHSG diperkirakan kembali fluktuatif di kisaran 7250-7330 di Senin (22/7). Top picks : ADMR, AKRA, AVIA, BRIS, INDF, SIDO, dan INCO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Interest rate hikes by the Fed and Bank Indonesia since 2022 increased interest costs for tower companies, expecting a rate cut in September 2024 that could reduce the company's interest expenses. TOWR benefits more than MTEL as its interest-bearing debt/total liabilities ratio is lower, so the expected rate cut this year could boost its profit margins. Indonesia's Digital Transformation 2030 aims to become the world's fifth-largest economy. Its focus is on developing and expanding digital infrastructure, particularly in remote areas. Telecommunications companies are expanding into Eastern Indonesia with great potential and low penetration, with government support in constructing broadband networks. We recommend overweight on the tower sector due to continued demand growth driven by government focus on infrastructure for Indonesia Emas 2045, with Top Picks TOWR (target price IDR850) and MTEL (target price IDR720), as well as upside risk from demand growth and realization of interest rate cAut. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Mayoritas indeks-indeks Wall Street lanjutkan pelemahan di Kamis (18/7). Pelemahan ini diperkirakan lebih sebagai profit taking normal. Hal ini diindikasikan dari penguatan indeks saham berkapitalisasi kecil, Russell 2000 sampai dengan 3.5% di Kamis (18/7). Pelemahan juga dialami oleh mayoritas indeks di Eropa (18/7). Pelemahan ini dipicu oleh keputusan ECB menahan sukubunga acuan di 4.25% (18/7). IHSG berpeluang uji resistance level 7350-7380 di Jumat (19/7). Secara teknikal, IHSG Kembali menguat di Kamis (18/7) pasca coba tutup gap ke 7200 di Rabu (17/7). Saham-saham bank, khususnya bank berkapitalisasi besar menjadi movers utama IHSG di Kamis (18/7) seiring stabilisasi nilai tukar Rupiah di Bawah Rp16,200/USD sampai Kamis (18/7) sore. Kondisi ini diperkirakan masih berlanjut di Jumat (19/7). Top picks (19/7) : BBCA, ITMG, ADRO, UNTR dan PTBA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

19 Juli 2024

INDF's revenue grew limited 0.81% YoY to IDR30.7 trillion in 3M24.  Despite the limited revenue growth, INDF recorded a Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) decline by 3.87% YoY to IDR19.5 trillion in 3M24. As a result, the gross profit grew significantly by 10.19% YoY to IDR11.2 trillion in 3M24. EBITDA grew significantly in line with efficient operating activities. INDF recorded EBITDA grew significantly by 25.18% YoY to Rp7.2 trillion in 3M24 from Rp5.7 trillion in 3M23. This growth aligned with a significant decrease in operating expenses by 9.42% YoY to Rp3.9 trillion in 3M24 from Rp4.4 trillion in 3M23. This condition shows that INDF can increase efficiency in its operating activities, reflected in significant EBITDA growth. Raw material prices flatten, INDF's profitability has the potential to stabilize. In producing its products, INDF utilizes critical raw materials such as CPO and Wheat, so its profitability depends on fluctuations in raw material prices. If CPO and Wheat prices are more stable in the future, INDF's profitability will potentially stabilize. The Company's subsidiaries have a global bond burden in USD. PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP), as a subsidiary of INDF restructured its debt to finance the acquisition of Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) by issuing four global bonds in USD. This action increased ICBP's total debt in FY21, and its interest expenses also increased significantly. ICBP's average sales growth post-PCL acquisition from 2020 to 2023 was 12.73%. Then, ICBP's average net profit margin (NPM) from 2020 to 2023 is 12.78%, so we believe ICBP's NPM will stabilize at a 2-digit level in the next few years. We estimate that this condition can cover high-interest expenses and minimize liquidity risk. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 8.05% and Terminal Growth of 2.75%, we estimate INDF's fair value at IDR7,842 per share (Expected PE at 6.48x and EV/EBITDA at 3.91x in FY24). We give INDF a Buy rating with potential upside 31.80%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Nasdaq (-2.77%) mengalami pelemahan harian terburuk dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Pemerintah AS menyampaikan potensi trade restrictions yang lebih ketat kepada perusahaan teknologi di AS apabila tetap membuka akses U.S.-made technology ke produsen Tiongkok. Inflasi total di Euro Area turun ke 2.5% yoy di Juni 2024 dari 2.6% yoy di Mei 2024. U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond Yield cenderung sideways di bawah 4.2% di Rabu (17/7). Harga brent dan crude menguat sekitar 2% di Rabu (17/7) menyusul penurunan EIA crude oil stock sebesar 4.78 juta barel di pekan lalu. IHSG diperkirakan kembali bergerak sideways di kisaran 7200 pada perdagangan Kamis (18/7). Pasar masih mencerna keputusan RDG BI menahan sukubunga acuan di 6.5% (17/7). Top picks (18/7) : BBRI, BTPS, TLKM, ASII, ACES dan INDF. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

18 Juli 2024

Ekspektasi pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed di September 2024 kembali mendorong penguatan indeks-indeks Wall Street di Selasa (16/7). CME FedWatch Tools mencatat peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan sebesar 87.6% di September 2024. Kepala the Fed, Jerome Powell menyatakan bahwa the Fed tidak akan menunggu inflasi AS turun ke 2% yoy sebelum memangkas sukubunga acuan. U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield turun ke 4.158 di Selasa (16/7). ZEW Economic Sentiment Index di Euro Area turun ke 43.7 di Juli 2024 (vs 51.3 di Juni 2024) dan Jerman ke 41.8% di Juli 2024 (vs 47.5 di Juni 2024). Harga brent melemah 0.8%, sementara harga crude melemah 0.9% merespon ekspektasi penurunan permintaan dari Tiongkok. Pelemahan IHSG diperkirakan terbatas pada kisaran support 7200 di Rabu (17/7). Top picks (17/7) : ESSA, MDKA, BMRI, ASSA, TINS dan MAPI. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

17 Juli 2024

16 Juli 2024