Nasdaq (-2.30%) memimpin pelemahan mayoritas indeks Wall Street di Kamis (1/8). Initial Jobless Claims bertambah 249,000 di pekan lalu, penambahan terbesar sejak 2023. ISM Manufacturing PMI turun ke 46.8 di Juli 2024 dari 48.5 di Juni 2024. Kedua data di atas memicu kekhawatiran bahwa the Fed mungkin sudah terlambat dalam memangkas sukubunga acuan untuk mencegah resesi ekonomi di AS. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun ke bawah 4% di Kamis (1/8). Indeks manufaktur Indonesia turun ke posisi kontraktif di 49.3 untuk pertama kalinya sejak September 2021 di Juli 2024 dari 50.7 di Juni 2024. Inflasi inti turun ke 2.13% yoy di Juli 2024 dan inflasi inti naik 1.95% di Juli 2024. Data inflasi ini mengindikasikan bahwa konsumsi domestik masih solid ditopang oleh harga-harga yang cenderung terkendali di Juli 2024. IHSG rawan profit taking di Jumat (2/8), pasca penguatan hampir 1% di Kamis (1/8). Top picks (2/8) : BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, BBRI dan TOWR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

2 Agustus 2024

INCO reported 2Q24 revenue of $248.81 million, up 8.21% QoQ but down 15.88% YoY, slightly missing the 1H24 forecast of $478.75 million. Higher production costs raised cash costs to $9,989/tonne, though kept below $10,000/tonne. Despite an 8.92% QoQ drop in Nickel Matte production and a 3.69% decrease in sales, a 12.35% increase in the LME nickel price boosted the ASP to $14,214/tonne. Consequently, INCO's cash margin improved to $4,225/tonne, up from $3,194 in 1Q24. INCO's net profit was weakened by a derivative asset loss. Despite QoQ improvements due to a low base effect from 1Q24, EBITDA for 6M24 was $132.09 million, down from $276.93 million in 6M23, with the EBITDA margin dropping to 27.59% from 42.02%. A $6.12 million loss from the fair value of a derivative asset related to PT Kolaka Nickel Indonesia, driven by declining nickel prices, impacted net profit. As a result, net profit fell 82.06% YoY to $37.28 million, just 21.86% of the 2024 forecast. Despite challenges, management is optimistic about meeting production targets and maintaining healthy cash margins. INCO aims to produce 70,800 tonnes of nickel in matte and keep cash costs competitive. For 2024, the revenue forecast has been revised down to $976.98 million with an anticipated net profit of $117.03 million, reflecting expected continued pressure on nickel prices. The LME nickel price is projected to range between $17,500 and $18,000, with INCO's realization expected at around 78%. We maintain a BUY rating for INCO with a lower estimated fair value of IDR 4,370/share (implying 29.73x P/E and 1.02x P/BV) based on the DCF method. Despite ongoing weakness in ASP realization, we see potential for improved performance and lower cash costs through the remainder of 2024. Key downside risks include volatility in nickel prices, rising energy consumption and costs, and potential project delays. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

1 Agustus 2024

Nasdaq (+2.64%) dan S&P 500 (+1.58%) membukukan rebound signifikan pada perdagangan Rabu (31/7). The Fed memutuskan untuk menahan sukubunga acuan di level 5.5%. Kepala the Fed, Jerome Powell cukup optimis bahwa data-data ekonomi menunjukan tren penurunan inflasi menuju target level inflasi di 2% yoy. Harga brent menguat 2.68% ke US$80.74/barel dan harga crude menguat 4.05% ke US$77.76/barel. Penguatan dipicu oleh kekhawatiran eskalasi ketegangan geopolitik di Timur Tengah pasca pembunuhan Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh di Teheran, Iran (31/7). Keputusan BoJ untuk menaikan sukubunga acuan ke level 0.25% (dari 0.1%) berpotensi memicu capital outflow dari negara-negara berkembang, termasuk Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Tiongkok mengalami kontraksi sektor manufaktur secara berturut-turut dalam 3 bulan terakhir. IHSG diperkirakan kembali bergerak fluktuatif di kisaran 7250 pada perdagangan Kamis (1/8). Top picks (1/8) : ASII, BRIS, JSMR, CTRA dan PGEO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

31  Juli 2024

Mayoritas indeks Wall Street kembali melemah di Selasa (30/7). Pasar berharap petunjuk arah kebijakan moneter the Fed dari Jerome Powell pada FOMC pekan ini (31/7). CME FedWatch Tools mencatat peluang 100% untuk pemangkasan sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps di September 2024. BoE diperkirakan memangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps (31/7). Harga brent melemah 1.44% ke US$78.63/barel dan harga crude melemah 1.42% ke US$74.73/barel di Selasa (30/7). Indeks manufaktur Tiongkok diperkirakan berada di 49.3 di Juli 2024. Hal ini mengindikasikan pelemahan aktivitas manufaktur yang berkelanjutan selama tiga bulan berturut-turut di Tiongkok. Pertumbuhan FDI double digit di Indonesia pada tahun pemilu dapat membangun optimisme pasar terhadap outlook ekonomi Indonesia di 2H24. IHSG diperkirakan lanjutkan fase konsolidasi dengan kecenderungan uji level 7220 pada Rabu (31/7). Top picks (31/7) : BNGA, MDKA, MAPI, BBYB, dan ESSA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

30 Juli 2024

Indeks-indeks Wall Street ditutup flat pada perdagangan Senin (29/7). Amazon, Apple, Meta Platform dan Microsoft dijadwalkan rilis laporan keuangan 2Q24 pada pekan ini. The Fed diyakini masih menahan sukubunga acuan di 5.5% (31/7). Akan tetapi, pasar berharap ada petunjuk yang lebih jelas mengenai peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan dalam FOMC September 2024. BoE diperkirakan pangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps pada pekan ini (31/7). Inflasi Euro Area diperkirakan turun 10 bps mom ke 2.4% yoy di Juli 2024. Kondisi ini memperbesar peluang pemangkasan lanjutan, khususnya oleh ECB di 2H24. Harga minyak melemah hampir 2% di Senin (29/7). IHSG diperkirakan konsolidatif pada rentang 7250-7350 di Selasa (30/7). Dari dalam negeri, terdapat kecenderungan wait and see ditengah antisipasi data kinerja keuangan 2Q24, inflasi Juli 2024, Foreign Direct Investment 2Q24 hingga pertumbuhan ekonomi 2Q24. Top picks (30/7) : AUTO, BFIN, SMRA, CTRA, dan PWON. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

BBCA's net profit grew 11.1% yoy to IDR26.9 trillion in 6M24 (IDR61.53 trillion Annualized or 47% of our 2024F). Resilience in loan growth in the last five years. BBCA recorded loan growth of 15.5% yoy in 6M24. BBCA's credit quality remains healthy amidst macroeconomic conditions. BBCA's Current Account Savings Account (CASA) ratio is consistently above the industry. Lowest Cost of Fund (COF) compared to peers amidst high interest rates. Despite high interest rates, BBCA's cost of funds has remained stable in the last five years Strong customer relationships are BBCA's competitive advantage. The number of customers increased 6% yoy to 31.9 billion in 6M24, with transaction volume reaching 17 billion (+21% yoy) in 6M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.21% and Terminal Growth of 8.09%, we estimate the fair value of BBCA at 10,950 (24.71x expected P/E). So, we give BBCA a hold rating with a higher target and potential upside of 8.84%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritas YT : Phintraco Sekuritas TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id