INDF's revenue grew limited 0.81% YoY to IDR30.7 trillion in 3M24.  Despite the limited revenue growth, INDF recorded a Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) decline by 3.87% YoY to IDR19.5 trillion in 3M24. As a result, the gross profit grew significantly by 10.19% YoY to IDR11.2 trillion in 3M24. EBITDA grew significantly in line with efficient operating activities. INDF recorded EBITDA grew significantly by 25.18% YoY to Rp7.2 trillion in 3M24 from Rp5.7 trillion in 3M23. This growth aligned with a significant decrease in operating expenses by 9.42% YoY to Rp3.9 trillion in 3M24 from Rp4.4 trillion in 3M23. This condition shows that INDF can increase efficiency in its operating activities, reflected in significant EBITDA growth. Raw material prices flatten, INDF's profitability has the potential to stabilize. In producing its products, INDF utilizes critical raw materials such as CPO and Wheat, so its profitability depends on fluctuations in raw material prices. If CPO and Wheat prices are more stable in the future, INDF's profitability will potentially stabilize. The Company's subsidiaries have a global bond burden in USD. PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP), as a subsidiary of INDF restructured its debt to finance the acquisition of Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) by issuing four global bonds in USD. This action increased ICBP's total debt in FY21, and its interest expenses also increased significantly. ICBP's average sales growth post-PCL acquisition from 2020 to 2023 was 12.73%. Then, ICBP's average net profit margin (NPM) from 2020 to 2023 is 12.78%, so we believe ICBP's NPM will stabilize at a 2-digit level in the next few years. We estimate that this condition can cover high-interest expenses and minimize liquidity risk. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 8.05% and Terminal Growth of 2.75%, we estimate INDF's fair value at IDR7,842 per share (Expected PE at 6.48x and EV/EBITDA at 3.91x in FY24). We give INDF a Buy rating with potential upside 31.80%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Nasdaq (-2.77%) mengalami pelemahan harian terburuk dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Pemerintah AS menyampaikan potensi trade restrictions yang lebih ketat kepada perusahaan teknologi di AS apabila tetap membuka akses U.S.-made technology ke produsen Tiongkok. Inflasi total di Euro Area turun ke 2.5% yoy di Juni 2024 dari 2.6% yoy di Mei 2024. U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond Yield cenderung sideways di bawah 4.2% di Rabu (17/7). Harga brent dan crude menguat sekitar 2% di Rabu (17/7) menyusul penurunan EIA crude oil stock sebesar 4.78 juta barel di pekan lalu. IHSG diperkirakan kembali bergerak sideways di kisaran 7200 pada perdagangan Kamis (18/7). Pasar masih mencerna keputusan RDG BI menahan sukubunga acuan di 6.5% (17/7). Top picks (18/7) : BBRI, BTPS, TLKM, ASII, ACES dan INDF. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

18 Juli 2024

Ekspektasi pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed di September 2024 kembali mendorong penguatan indeks-indeks Wall Street di Selasa (16/7). CME FedWatch Tools mencatat peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan sebesar 87.6% di September 2024. Kepala the Fed, Jerome Powell menyatakan bahwa the Fed tidak akan menunggu inflasi AS turun ke 2% yoy sebelum memangkas sukubunga acuan. U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield turun ke 4.158 di Selasa (16/7). ZEW Economic Sentiment Index di Euro Area turun ke 43.7 di Juli 2024 (vs 51.3 di Juni 2024) dan Jerman ke 41.8% di Juli 2024 (vs 47.5 di Juni 2024). Harga brent melemah 0.8%, sementara harga crude melemah 0.9% merespon ekspektasi penurunan permintaan dari Tiongkok. Pelemahan IHSG diperkirakan terbatas pada kisaran support 7200 di Rabu (17/7). Top picks (17/7) : ESSA, MDKA, BMRI, ASSA, TINS dan MAPI. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

17 Juli 2024

16 Juli 2024

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat di Senin (15/7). Pasar mulai mencerna peningkatan peluang kemenangan Donald Trump dalam Pemilu Presiden AS di November 2024 pasca penembakan pada akhir pekan lalu. Pasar juga dipengaruhi spekulasi bahwa Trump akan menerapkan kebijakan inward looking dan anti-immigration yang jauh lebih ekstrim dibanding periode kepemimpinan pertamanya dulu, jika terpilih. U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield konsolidatif di kisaran 4.2% hingga Senin (15/7). Tiongkok mencatat perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi ke 4.7% yoy di 2Q24 dari 5.3% yoy di 1Q24. Realisasi di bawah ekspektasi (5% yoy) ini memicu kekhawatiran terhadap outlook ekonomi Tiongkok. IHSG masih rawan pullback lanjutan ke kisaran 7250-7230 di Selasa (16/7). Dari domestik, nilai ekspor tumbuh 1.17% yoy di Juni 2024, jauh lebih rendah dari ekspektasi (5.13 yoy). Top picks (16/7) : ICBP, INKP, BBYB, MNCN dan JPFA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

15 Juli 2024

DJIA tutup di atas 40,000 untuk pertama kalinya dalam sejarah (12/7). CME FedWatch Tools mencatat peluang pemangkasan sebesar 90.3% di September 2024. Hal ini turut memicu ekspektasi pemangkasan lanjutan ECB yang direspon positif oleh indeks-indeks di Eropa. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Tiongkok diperkirakan melambat ke 5% yoy di 2Q24 dari 5.3% yoy di 1Q24. Pekan ini pasar mengantisipasi data Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia (NPI) dan keputusan RDG BI. Pasar menantikan pandangan dari BI terkait peluang pemangkasan di 2024, seiring perkembangan kondisi terkini di eksternal. IHSG mungkin ditopang euforia the Fed di awal pekan, tapi waspadai potensi profit taking di tengah-akhir pekan ini. Top picks : ADMR, INTP, ICBP, MAPI dan MYOR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

12 Juli 2024