BRIS: Innovation Maintains BRIS Profits Growth
04 Nov 2024
BRIS net profit grew 21.6% yoy to IDR5.1 trillion in 9M24. Net Margin Income of IDR12.6 trillion grew 3.5% yoy in 9M24.
BRIS recorded financing growth of 8.09% yoy to IDR318.5 trillion in 9M24. Consumer financing growth (+16.27% yoy) supported this growth, which contributed 54.57% to BRIS total 9M24 financing.
Tier 1 ROE increased significantly (+740 bps yoy) in 9M24. BRIS recorded an ROE of 17.59% in 9M24, higher than 16.85% in 9M23 and 16.88% in FY23.
The gold business could be a booster for BRIS' performance. BRIS focuses on increasing its gold business in 2024.BRIS' gold business was able to record significant growth of +60.53% yoy to IDR 15.7 trillion in 9M24 with a contribution of 4.07% of total revenue.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.85% and Terminal Growth of 7.83%, we estimate the fair value of BRIS at 3,300 (23.69x expected P/E). Considering BRIS's fair price and relative valuation of around 2.4x 5-year Mean P/B, we give a buy rating for BRIS with a potential upside of 11.89%.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Antisipasi Pemilu AS dan FOMC, pasar hati-hati
04 Nov 2024
Indeks-indeks Wall Street berbalik menguat di Jumat (1/11).
Realisasi penyerapan tenaga kerja baru di AS sebesar 12,000 di Oktober 2024, jauh lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar di 100,000.
Data ini dinilai memvalidasi peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed dalam FOMC November 2024 (9/11).
Hasil major review oleh MSCI pada 7 November 2024 juga kemungkinan memicu fluktuasi IHSG.
Pasar cenderung berhati-hati jelang Pemilu AS di 5 November 2024 dan pengumuman FOMC the Fed pada 9 November 2024.
IHSG berpotensi rebound di awal pekan (4/11), namun IHSG diperkirakan kembali fluktuatif di sisa pekan ini tergantung pada sentimen-sentimen dari major events di atas.
Top picks : BBCA, ESSA, BMRI, PTPP, BFIN dan BRIS.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
Valdy K.
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ISAT: Strong EBITDA, Sustainable Growth amidst Tight Competition
01 Nov 2024
ISAT’s 3Q24 revenue reached IDR 13.84 trillion, marking an 8.20% YoY increase but a slight 2.16% decrease from the previous quarter.
The cumulative 9M24 revenue of IDR 41.82 trillion represents an 11.61% YoY increase, covering 78% of the full-year forecast. Net profit grew by 40.50% YoY in 3Q24 but saw a 22.23% quarterly decline
The Multimedia, Data Communication, and Internet (MIDI) segment grew significantly, with a 31.91% YoY increase. However, Cellular segment revenue, while up by 5.80% YoY, experienced a 2.60% QoQ decline.
ISAT’s 3Q24 EBITDA stood at IDR 6.59 trillion (up 8.29% YoY), with a marginal decline in EBITDA margin to 47.62%
ISAT added 3,000 BTS towers in 2024, improving reach to 2.1 million people and extending services to 370 new villages.
Enhanced distribution with 2,000 rural distribution points and 2,500 new service points, along with the launch of the Digital Intelligence Operations Center (DIOC) for real-time network monitoring
A stronger performance is expected in 4Q24, driven by anticipated data demand during the Pilkada, Christmas, and New Year seasons. An upcoming frequency auction could further enhance network capacity if ISAT secures additional frequencies
The company retains a "BUY" rating with a target price of IDR 3,000, anticipating an 18.80% upside. Potential risks include price competition, regulatory shifts, and high-interest rates.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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BSDE : Township, Has the Potential to Support BSDE Income Again
01 Nov 2024
Net profit grew 52.72% yoy to IDR2.7 trillion in 9M24. This growth is in line with the increase in revenue of 37.75% yoy to IDR10.1 trillion in 9M24.
BSD City is designated as a National Strategic Project (PSN). This project is carried out in approximately 59.6 hectares, focusing on developing the education, biomedical, and digital regions, with an estimated investment value of Rp18.55
trillion.
BSDE marketing sales achieved 72% of the 2024F marketing sales target. BSDE posted marketing sales of IDR6.84 trillion (+1% yoy) in 9M24.
Net profit is projected to return above IDR2.9 trillion in FY24F. During the election period in 3M24, BSDE was able to record growth in marketing sales (+3% yoy) and revenue (+31% yoy).
Net profit is projected to return above IDR 2.9 trillion in FY24F.
Using discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate BSDE's fair value to be 1425 (8.64x expected P/E FY24F and 67% discount to NAV). Considering BSDE's fair price, we give BSDE a buy rating with a potential upside of 16.82%.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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The Fed diyakini tetap pangkas 50 bps sukubunga di sisa tahun 2024
01 Nov 2024
Nasdaq (-2.76%) memimpin pelemahan mayoritas indeks Wall Street pada perdagangan Kamis (31/10).
Pelemahan tersebut dipicu oleh kekecewaan pasar terhadap kinerja keuangan 3Q24 dari Meta dan Microsoft yang gagal memenuhi ekspektasi pasar.
Pergerakan hasil survei terbaru CME FedWatch Tools (31/10) mengindikasikan bahwa, sekalipun the Fed menahan sukubunga acuan di November, the Fed diyakini masih berpeluang pangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 50 bps di Desember 2024.
Inflasi Euro Area naik ke 2% yoy di Oktober 2024 dari 1.7% yoy di September 2024 dan lebih tinggi dari perkiraan di 1.9% yoy.
Harga minyak rebound sekitar 1% (31/10) dipicu penurunan U.S. Gasoline stockpiles ke level terendah dalam 2 tahun di pekan yang berakhir pada 25 Oktober 2024.
IHSG rawan kembali melemah, uji support area 7500-7550 di akhir pekan ini (1/11).
Meski demikian, pelemahan kemungkinan memasuki bottom area.
Mayoritas saham bluechip sudah melaporkan kinerja keuangan 3Q24 di pekan ini, mayoritas relatif sesuai dengan perkiraan pasar.
Top picks (1/11) : PTBA, PGAS, MBMA, CPIN dan SCMA.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
Valdy K.
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Mengenal Pengertian Saham, Jenis-Jenis Saham di Indonesia Serta Keuntungan & Risiko Investasi Saham
31 Okt 2024
Mengenal Pengertian Saham, Jenis-Jenis Saham di Indonesia Serta Keuntungan & Risiko Investasi Saham
A. Pengertian Saham
Saham merupakan bukti kepemilikan suatu perusahaan yang merupakan klaim atas penghasilan dan kekayaan perseroan. Ketika seseorang menjadi pemegang saham suatu perusahaan, makai Ia diakui sebagai pemilik atas perusahaan tersebut. Perusahaan yang telah mencatatkan sahamnya di Bursa Efek Indonesia disebut sebagai perusahaan terbuka dan mendapat title Tbk di belakang nama perseroan. Arti dari perusahaan terbuka adalah bahwa perusahaan tersebut sahamnya dapat dimiliki oleh masyarakat umum dengan melakukan pembelian melalui Bursa Efek. Di Bursa Efek Indonesia, masyarakat dapat membeli saham dengan minimal pembelian sebanyak 1 lot atau setara dengan 100 lembar saham.
B. Jenis-Jenis Saham di Indonesia
1. Saham Biasa (Common Stock)
Kriteria Saham Biasa meliputi :
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- Investor memiliki hak suara saat RUPS.
- Dividen dapat berubah-ubah tergantung kondisi keuangan perusahaan.
- Jika perusahaan dilikuidasi investor yang memegang saham biasa memiliki hak klaim paling terakhir.
- Investor tidak memiliki hak suara saat RUPS.
- Dividen yang dibagikan perusahaan bersifat tetap.
- Jika perusahaan dilikuidasi, investor yang memegang saham preferen memiliki hak klaim terlebih dahulu dibandingkan investor saham biasa.
Dividen merupakan pembagian keuntungan perusahaan kepada para pemegang saham.2. Capital Gain
Capital gain merupakan keuntungan yang didapatkan dari selisih harga beli dan harga jual saham. ketika investor membeli saham pada harga tertentu dan menjualnya di harga yang lebih tinggi, maka investor akan mendapatkan keuntungan dari selisih harga beli dan harga jual. Itulah yang dinamakan sebagai capital gain Contoh ilustrasi dari capital gain adalah Ketika investor membeli saham TLKM sebesar 1 Lot pada harga Rp3.000 dan kemudian menjualnya pada harga Rp3.500, maka investor tersebut mendapatkan keuntungan Rp500 per lembar sahamnya.3. RUPS
Ketika investor memegang saham suatu perusahaan, investor dapat mengikuti Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham walapun kepemilikan sahamnya hanya 1 lot.4. Mudah
Investasi saham mudah, karena transaksi menjual dan membeli saham dapat dilakukan melalui smartphone yang terhubung dengan internet sesuai dengan jam perdagangan bursa.D. Risiko Saham 1. Risiko Likuidasi
Risiko likuidasi ketika emiten dinyatakan bangkrut, maka para pemegang saham memiliki hak klaim terakhir terhadap aset perusahaan.2. Capital Loss
Capital loss kebalikan dari capital gain merupakan kerugian ketika pemegang saham membeli saham di harga tinggi dan menjualnya di harga yang lebih rendah. Contoh ilustrasi dari capital loss adalah ketika investor membeli saham TLKM sebesar 1 Lot pada harga Rp3.500 dan kemudian menjualnya pada harga Rp3.000, maka investor tersebut mendapatkan kerugian Rp500 per lembar sahamnya.3. Delisting
Ketika perusahaan dinyatakan keluar dari Bursa Efek Indonesia dengan beberapa penyebab seperti emiten menghentikan operasi, bangkrut, tidak memenuhi persyaratan di bursa atau juga ingin menjadi perusahaan tertutup.4. Risiko Likuiditas
Saham yang tidak likuid merupakan saham yang volume perdagangannya kecil dan minat investor juga terbatas. Investor sebaiknya menghindari saham tidak likuid dikarenakan akan susah untuk dibeli dan dijual.5. No Dividen
Risiko yang terakhir adalah ketika saham yang dibeli investor tidak membagikan dividen setiap tahunnya.
By Phintraco Sekuritas | Education “Personal Touch For Your Investment Journey”Penulis : Riska Novi Cahyani Editor : Khoirrun Nisa
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MYOR: Rising Raw Material Prices Put Pressure on 9M24 Financial Performance
31 Okt 2024
MYOR recorded revenue growth of 11.99% YoY to IDR25.63 trillion in 9M24. The revenue growth was driven by revenue in the Packaged Food Processing segment, which grew by 36.84% QoQ or 14% YoY to IDR15.5 trillion in 9M24. Meanwhile, Packaged Beverages Processing segment grew by 18.19% QoQ or 21.23% YoY to IDR12.37 trillion in 9M24.
Rising raw material prices pressured MYOR's margin in 9M24. MYOR's cost of goods sold was recorded at IDR18.86 trillion in 9M24, up 16.47% YoY from IDR16.19 trillion in 9M23, which caused Gross Profit Margin (GPM) in 9M24 to depress 26.43% (vs. 29.26% in 9M23). The decline in GPM was due to the surge in Cocoa and Coffee prices. During 9M24, the average price of Cocoa increased by 155% YoY to US$7,853/ton (vs. US$3,085/ton in 9M23). Meanwhile, the average price of Coffee increased by 27.59% YoY to US$219/Lbs (vs. US$172/Lbs in 9M23)
MYOR seeks to maintain performance by increasing sales. Faced with the challenges of rising prices of Cocoa and Coffee raw materials, MYOR continues to drive sales growth by adjusting product selling prices, innovating products, and expanding export reach to several new destination countries to potentially maintain future performance.
MYOR recorded a stable net profit at IDR2 trillion in 9M24. On a quarterly basis, MYOR's net profit fell 50.47% QoQ to IDR308 billion in 3Q24 (vs. IDR606 billion in 2Q24). We assess MYOR's net profit in 3Q24 to be depressed due to the surge in Cocoa and Coffee commodity prices, reducing MYOR's GPM. MYOR's net profit in 9M24 was below our estimate as it was only 62.72% of our FY24F.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 7.12% and Terminal Growth of 4.55%, we estimate MYOR's fair value at IDR2,880 per share (Expected PE at 20.38x and EV/EBITDA at 11.86x in FY24). Therefore, we maintain a Buy rating on MYOR with lower target and potential upside of 11.62%.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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BBRI : Asset Quality Back to Management Guideline
31 Okt 2024
BBRI recorded a net profit of IDR45.36 trillion, growing 2.6% yoy in 9M24. This result grew in line with our FY24F estimate (73%).
BBRI's Non-Performing Loan (NPL) is back to management's target. Gross NPL fell 170 bps yoy to 2.90% in 9M24 and lower than 2.95% in FY23.
BBRI's credit grew 8.2% yoy to IDR1.353 trillion in 9M24. This growth was supported by corporate loans (+17% yoy) and consumer loans (+10% yoy), which contributed 18% and 15% to BBRI's revenue, respectively.
Regarding customer deposits, the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew by 6.5% in 9M24. BBRI recorded total third-party funds of IDR1.362 trillion (+5.6% yoy) in 9M24.
Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.72% and Terminal Growth of 4.72%, we estimate BBRI's fair value at 5,925 (14.31x expected P/E FY24F). Considering BBRI's fair price, we maintain our buy rating for BBRI with a lower target than before and a potential upside of 25.79%.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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