DJIA menguat lebih dari 1,500 poin atau 3.57%, memimpin penguatan indeks-indeks Wall Street lain di Rabu (6/11). Indeks-indeks di Eropa ditutup melemah pada perdagangan Rabu (6/11) sejalan dengan mayoritas indeks diluar Wall Street (6/11). Pergerakan tersebut merespon kemenangan Donald Trump dalam Pemilu AS setelah memperoleh setidaknya 291 electoral votes. Partai Republik, partai pengusung Donald Trump juga diperkirakan memenangkan Pemilu dengan memperoleh lebih dari 51% kursi di Parlemen AS. Pasar di Indonesia kali ini nampaknya memiliki concern lebih terhadap kemenangan Donald Trump kali ini. The Fed diyakini memangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps dalam FOMC 6-7 November 2024 yang berpotensi menjadi sentiment positif bagi IHSG. IHSG berpeluang technical rebound ke kisaran 7400-7430 di Kamis (7/11). Top picks (7/11) : BBCA, MNCN, CPIN, EMTK dan AUTO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

7 November 2024

Net profit grew 11.99% yoy to IDR1.3 trillion in 9M24. Revenue rose 8% yoy to IDR7.1 trillion in 9M24. CTRA recorded marketing sales of IDR8.7 trillion in 9M24, equivalent to 78% of the FY24F marketing sales target. This achievement continues the upward trend in 2023, where CTRA recorded its highest marketing sales. A geographically diversified product portfolio is CTRA's advantage. As of 9M24, CTRA has 89 projects in 34 cities in Indonesia. Management targets marketing sales to reach IDR11.1 trillion (+9% yoy). We estimate that CTRA can record revenue growth of 9% yoy to IDR10.1 trillion and net profit of +10% yoy in FY24F. Using Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods, we estimate CTRA's fair value at 1570 (15.46x expected P/E FY24F and 35% discount to NAV). Considering CTRA's fair price, we give CTRA a buy rating with a potential upside of 31.54% By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

ICBP recorded a revenue of IDR55.49 trillion in 9M24, growing 8.14% YoY. ICBP's revenue growth in 9M24 was in line with revenue growth across all operating segments, with the most significant increase in the Food Seasonings segment at 15.75% YoY. Better non-operating performance boosted net profit in 9M24. ICBP's net profit grew 202% QoQ or 15.57% YoY to Rp9.37 trillion in 9M24 (vs. Rp1.65 trillion in 2Q24; Rp8.11 trillion in 9M23). ICBP's net profit was in line with the improvement in its non-operating performance mainly due to the appreciation of Rupiah against US$, which enabled ICBP to reverse its loss on foreign exchange in 2Q24 to gain on foreign exchange in 3Q24. Potentially benefiting from the Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) program. The program can potentially benefit food and beverage issuers, especially those related to processed foods such as milk, seasonings, and their supporters. From January-September 2024, the segment's revenue growth reached 15.75% YoY to Rp3.3 trillion (vs. Rp2.85 trillion in January-September 2023) in line with the Makan Bergizi Gratis trial has been ongoing in several schools. The government plans to implement an excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in packaging in 2025. We assess that the impact of the excise policy will be insignificant to ICBP's sales performance, especially for the beverage segment, which only contributed around 2.29% to ICBP's total sales in 9M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.42% and Terminal Growth of 2.49%, we estimate ICBP's fair value at IDR13,340 per share (Expected PE at 15.29x and EV/EBITDA at 9.90x in FY24). Therefore, we give Hold rating on ICBP with a higher target and potential upside of 8.24%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

INDF's revenue grew 11.86% QoQ or 3.64% YoY to IDR86.9 trillion in 9M24. INDF's revenue growth in 9M24 was driven by the revenue of the Consumer Branded Product (CBP) segment, which rose 9.14% QoQ or 8.38% YoY to IDR55.57 trillion. However, three other segments, namely Bogasari, Agribusiness, and Distribution, experienced revenue decline in 9M24. All operating segments recorded operating profit growth. All three of INDF's operating segments could still record operating profit growth despite sales pressure in 9M24 (Table 3). Agribusiness segment recorded the most significant operating profit growth of 63.74% YoY to Rp1.88 trillion (vs. 1.15 trillion in 9M23). Rising Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices drove the Agribusiness segment's operating profit growth in 9M24. From January to September 2024, the average CPO price increased by 3.78% YoY to MYR4,006/ton. We assess that the Agribusiness segment has attractive prospects going forward, along with the new government's targets and policies that could potentially benefit this segment. INDF's net profit growth in 9M24 was driven by improved non-operating performance. During 9M24, INDF's net profit reached Rp12.29 trillion, growing 180% QoQ or 25.33% YoY. This growth was driven by the strengthening of the Rupiah against the US$ so that INDF could reverse the loss on foreign exchange in 2Q24 into profit on foreign exchange in 3Q24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.58% and Terminal Growth of 2.75%, we estimate INDF's fair value at IDR8,196 per share (Expected PE at 6.04x and EV/EBITDA at 3.90x in FY24). Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on INDF with a higher target and potential upside of 10.01%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat lebih dari 1% di hari Pemilu (5/11). Pelaksanaan Pemilu AS yang relatif kondusif mendorong penguatan tersebut. Hasil perhitungan suara awal beberapa negara bagian diperkirakan mulai tersedia pada pukul 7.00 WIB di Rabu (6/11). CME FedWatch Tools masih mempertahankan peluang 97.5% (5/11) untuk pemangkasan 25 bps pada FOMC 9 November 2024. Dari data ekonomi, pasar akan mencerna data indeks sektor jasa Jepang, Jerman dan Euro Area yang dijadwalkan rilis pada hari ini (6/11). Penguatan IHSG di Selasa (5/11) terjadi ketika realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi melambat ke 4.95% yoy di 3Q24 dari 5.05% yoy di 2Q24. Pasar nampaknya, meyakini kondisi tersebut menjadi katalis bagi BI untuk mengikuti agresivitas the Fed dalam memangkas sukubunga acuan. Pasar juga mungkin berharap terhadap potensi stimulus-stimulus fiskal dari pemerintahan baru. IHSG berpeluang uji resistance 7500 di Rabu (6/11). Top picks (6/11) : INCO, AKRA, TINS, ANTM, dan MYOR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

6 November 2024

Mayoritas indeks Wall Street melemah pada perdagangan Senin (4/11) jelang Pemilu AS di 5 November 2024. Sejumlah jajak pendapat menunjukan keunggulan tipis Calon Presiden dari Partai Demokrat, Kamala Harris beberapa hari menjelang Pemilu. Pasar mengkhawatirkan potensi deadlock parliament, yaitu kondisi di parlemen yang relatif sama kuat antara Partai Demokrat dengan Partai Republik. CME FedWatch Tools mencatat peluang 98% pemangkasan 25 bps dalam FOMC 9 November 2024. OPEC+ memutuskan memperpanjang pemangkasan volume produksi sebesar 2.2 juta barel/hari sampai dengan Desember 2024. Harga brent menguat 2.71% ke US$75.08/barel, sementara harga crude menguat 2.85% ke US$71.47/barel di Senin (4/11). Pasar menantikan data pertumbuhan ekonomi 3Q24 Indonesia yang diyakini masih bertahan di atas 5% yoy (5/11). IHSG diperkirakan kembali fluktuatif di kisaran 7450-7500 di Selasa (5/11). Top picks (5/11) : BBNI, BBRI, ICBP, AMRT, INDF, dan ANTM. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

5 November 2024

BMRI's net profit of 9M24 grew 7.6% yoy to 78% of our FY24 estimate. BMRI recorded a net profit of IDR42 trillion (+7.6% yoy) in 9M24. Wholesale Business remains the highest compared to peers. BMRI recorded a total credit of IDR1.6 trillion, increasing by 20.8% yoy in 9M24. Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew by 15% in 9M24. BMRI recorded CASA of IDR1.2 trillion (+15% yoy) in 9M24, with a CASA ratio of 73.8% (+12 bps) yoy. Non-Performing Loans (NPL) fell 36 bps yoy to 1.13 in 9M24. This achievement also continues the downward trend in NPL in the last three years (NPL of (2.72 in FY21, 1.92 in FY22, and 1.19 in FY23). BMRI's credit growth is targeted at 16%-18% in FY24F.Several factors, such as improving domestic consumption, the realization of private and government investment, a continuation of National Strategic Projects. BMRI's strong position in the wholesale segment allows BMRI to optimize these positive catalysts. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.52% and Terminal Growth of 3.39%, we estimate BMRI's fair value at 7,900 (12.37x expected P/E). Therefore, we still give BMRI a buy rating with a potential upside of 18.77%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -