Euforia di Wall Street pasca pemilu berlanjut di AS (11/11). DJIA (+0.69%) kembali catat level penutupan tertinggi baru (11/11). Pasar mengantisipasi pidato dari sejumlah petinggi the Fed (13/11), menyusul FOMC pada pekan lalu. Penguatan signifikan dicatatkan oleh indeks-indeks di Eropa (11/11). Perkiraan kenaikan inflasi Jerman di Oktober sejalan dengan perkiraan perbaikan ZEW Economic Sentiment (Euro Area dan Jerman) di November 2024. Harga minyak melemah lebih dari 2% di Senin (11/11) pasca rally setelah Pemilu AS di tengah pekan lalu. IHSG berbalik membentuk lower-shadow panjang di Senin (11/11). Area konsolidasi IHSG diperkirakan berada pada kisaran 7250-7330 dengan critical support level diperkirakan di 7200. Pasar menantikan rilis data retail sales domestik di September 2024 yang diperkirakan mengalami penurunan ke level 2.5% YoY dari 5.8% YoY di Agustus 2024. Top picks (12/11) : INDY, EMTK, TOBA, JPFA, dan PWON. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

11 November 2024

DJIA sentuh 44,000 untuk pertama kalinya dan S&P 500 catat level tertinggi baru di Jumat (8/11). Pelaku pasar di Indonesia masih mencoba mencari bottom level pasca serangkaian even yang menekan confidence level pasar. Kemenangan Donald Trump dalam Pemilu AS memicu kekhawatiran prospek outlook ekonomi global dengan kebijakan inward lookingnya. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat ke 4.95% yoy di 3Q24. Pergerakan IHSG di Jumat (8/11) dengan membentuk inverted hammer mengindikasikan bahwa IHSG belum mampu keluar dari tekanan jual. Nilai tukar Rupiah masih lanjutkan penguatan ke Rp15,665/USD sampai dengan Jumat sore (8/11). Kondisi ini diharapkan berlanjut dan meredam tekanan jual di pekan ini. Top picks : BBCA, ESSA, BMRI, PTPP, BFIN dan BRIS. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

8 November 2024

Nasdaq (+1.51%) dan S&P 500 (+0.74%) lanjutkan penguatan, sementara DJIA berakhir flat di Kamis (7/11). Mayoritas indeks di Eropa juga catat penguatan di Kamis (7/11). The Fed memberikan petunjuk akan melanjutkan pemangkasan sukubunga acuan sesuai dengan timeframe awal, karena belum melihat adanya peluang perubahan kondisi ekonomi yang sangat signifikan dari perkiraan the Fed. Kanselir Jerman, Olaf Scholz memberhentikan Menteri Keuangan, Christian Lindner (7/11) dan membuka peluang Pemilu lebih awal dari rencana awal di Maret 2025. BoE pangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps (7/11). IHSG terindikasi memvalidasi indikasi bearish reversal dari pola double top (7/11). Berdasarkan pola tersebut, potensi target bearish reversal berada di 7050-7150. Pidato Jerome Powell dan ekspektasi peningkatan konsumsi jelang Natal dan Tahun Baru diharapkan sedikit memperbaiki appetite investor di Indonesia. Top picks (8/11) : PGAS, PWON, CTRA, GJTL dan RAJA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

DJIA menguat lebih dari 1,500 poin atau 3.57%, memimpin penguatan indeks-indeks Wall Street lain di Rabu (6/11). Indeks-indeks di Eropa ditutup melemah pada perdagangan Rabu (6/11) sejalan dengan mayoritas indeks diluar Wall Street (6/11). Pergerakan tersebut merespon kemenangan Donald Trump dalam Pemilu AS setelah memperoleh setidaknya 291 electoral votes. Partai Republik, partai pengusung Donald Trump juga diperkirakan memenangkan Pemilu dengan memperoleh lebih dari 51% kursi di Parlemen AS. Pasar di Indonesia kali ini nampaknya memiliki concern lebih terhadap kemenangan Donald Trump kali ini. The Fed diyakini memangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps dalam FOMC 6-7 November 2024 yang berpotensi menjadi sentiment positif bagi IHSG. IHSG berpeluang technical rebound ke kisaran 7400-7430 di Kamis (7/11). Top picks (7/11) : BBCA, MNCN, CPIN, EMTK dan AUTO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

7 November 2024

Net profit grew 11.99% yoy to IDR1.3 trillion in 9M24. Revenue rose 8% yoy to IDR7.1 trillion in 9M24. CTRA recorded marketing sales of IDR8.7 trillion in 9M24, equivalent to 78% of the FY24F marketing sales target. This achievement continues the upward trend in 2023, where CTRA recorded its highest marketing sales. A geographically diversified product portfolio is CTRA's advantage. As of 9M24, CTRA has 89 projects in 34 cities in Indonesia. Management targets marketing sales to reach IDR11.1 trillion (+9% yoy). We estimate that CTRA can record revenue growth of 9% yoy to IDR10.1 trillion and net profit of +10% yoy in FY24F. Using Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods, we estimate CTRA's fair value at 1570 (15.46x expected P/E FY24F and 35% discount to NAV). Considering CTRA's fair price, we give CTRA a buy rating with a potential upside of 31.54% By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

ICBP recorded a revenue of IDR55.49 trillion in 9M24, growing 8.14% YoY. ICBP's revenue growth in 9M24 was in line with revenue growth across all operating segments, with the most significant increase in the Food Seasonings segment at 15.75% YoY. Better non-operating performance boosted net profit in 9M24. ICBP's net profit grew 202% QoQ or 15.57% YoY to Rp9.37 trillion in 9M24 (vs. Rp1.65 trillion in 2Q24; Rp8.11 trillion in 9M23). ICBP's net profit was in line with the improvement in its non-operating performance mainly due to the appreciation of Rupiah against US$, which enabled ICBP to reverse its loss on foreign exchange in 2Q24 to gain on foreign exchange in 3Q24. Potentially benefiting from the Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) program. The program can potentially benefit food and beverage issuers, especially those related to processed foods such as milk, seasonings, and their supporters. From January-September 2024, the segment's revenue growth reached 15.75% YoY to Rp3.3 trillion (vs. Rp2.85 trillion in January-September 2023) in line with the Makan Bergizi Gratis trial has been ongoing in several schools. The government plans to implement an excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in packaging in 2025. We assess that the impact of the excise policy will be insignificant to ICBP's sales performance, especially for the beverage segment, which only contributed around 2.29% to ICBP's total sales in 9M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.42% and Terminal Growth of 2.49%, we estimate ICBP's fair value at IDR13,340 per share (Expected PE at 15.29x and EV/EBITDA at 9.90x in FY24). Therefore, we give Hold rating on ICBP with a higher target and potential upside of 8.24%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

INDF's revenue grew 11.86% QoQ or 3.64% YoY to IDR86.9 trillion in 9M24. INDF's revenue growth in 9M24 was driven by the revenue of the Consumer Branded Product (CBP) segment, which rose 9.14% QoQ or 8.38% YoY to IDR55.57 trillion. However, three other segments, namely Bogasari, Agribusiness, and Distribution, experienced revenue decline in 9M24. All operating segments recorded operating profit growth. All three of INDF's operating segments could still record operating profit growth despite sales pressure in 9M24 (Table 3). Agribusiness segment recorded the most significant operating profit growth of 63.74% YoY to Rp1.88 trillion (vs. 1.15 trillion in 9M23). Rising Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices drove the Agribusiness segment's operating profit growth in 9M24. From January to September 2024, the average CPO price increased by 3.78% YoY to MYR4,006/ton. We assess that the Agribusiness segment has attractive prospects going forward, along with the new government's targets and policies that could potentially benefit this segment. INDF's net profit growth in 9M24 was driven by improved non-operating performance. During 9M24, INDF's net profit reached Rp12.29 trillion, growing 180% QoQ or 25.33% YoY. This growth was driven by the strengthening of the Rupiah against the US$ so that INDF could reverse the loss on foreign exchange in 2Q24 into profit on foreign exchange in 3Q24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.58% and Terminal Growth of 2.75%, we estimate INDF's fair value at IDR8,196 per share (Expected PE at 6.04x and EV/EBITDA at 3.90x in FY24). Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on INDF with a higher target and potential upside of 10.01%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -