Telco Infrastructure : Tower Infrastructure is Evolving to Support Next-Generation Connectivity

19 Jul 2024
Interest rate hikes by the Fed and Bank Indonesia since 2022 increased interest costs for tower companies, expecting a rate cut in September 2024 that could reduce the company's interest expenses. TOWR benefits more than MTEL as its interest-bearing debt/total liabilities ratio is lower, so the expected rate cut this year could boost its profit margins. Indonesia's Digital Transformation 2030 aims to become the world's fifth-largest economy. Its focus is on developing and expanding digital infrastructure, particularly in remote areas. Telecommunications companies are expanding into Eastern Indonesia with great potential and low penetration, with government support in constructing broadband networks. We recommend overweight on the tower sector due to continued demand growth driven by government focus on infrastructure for Indonesia Emas 2045, with Top Picks TOWR (target price IDR850) and MTEL (target price IDR720), as well as upside risk from demand growth and realization of interest rate cAut. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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IT Services & Consulting: Unveiling Indonesia’s Burgeoning Tech Ecosystem

04 Mar 2024
Geopolitical tensions raise the risk of cyberattacks, and the average cost per breach continues to rise, highlighting the ongoing need for robust cybersecurity measures for businesses. 51% of companies increase cybersecurity costs and investments due to the escalating cost of data breaches and cyberattacks. Indonesia faces a critical challenge in data protection; this vulnerability underscores the need for robust cybersecurity through IT Consultants & Services companies. Indonesia's tech sector receives support from the government: Law No. 27 of 2022 on Personal Data Protection and Circular Letter No. 29/SEOJK.03/2022 related to robust data security protocols for individuals and financial institutions. There is no sector rating yet, but we foresee Indonesia's tech sub-sector IT Consultant & Services' prosperous future, propelled by a potent combination of supportive regulations, surging demand for security solutions, and the transformative potential of emerging technologies.
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2024 Economic & Market Outlook: Searching for Opportunities in a Political Year

02 Jan 2024
**REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023** >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. **REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023** >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023.PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT) *"2024 Economic & Market Outlook: Searching for Opportunities in a Political Year."* -December 2023- --------------- *REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023* >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. *REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023* >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023. --------------- *OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. *OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id www.taspro.co.id --------------- **OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. **OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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2023 Economic & Market Outlook : Risiko Resesi Ekonomi Meningkat ditengah Kenaikan Harga dan Agresifitas Sejumlah Bank Sentral

22 Des 2023
REVIEW : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Global 2022 >Pandemi COVID-19 relatif terkendali secara global, terutama di 2H-2022. >Akselerasi pemulihan aktivitas ekonomi tidak dapat diimbangi oleh peningkatan supply. >Perang Rusia-Ukraina memperparah supply chain disruption, terutama pada komoditas-komoditas energi. >Lonjakan inflasi, terutama di AS dan Eropa salah satunya dipicu kenaikan harga komoditas energi. >Pengetatan kebijakan moneter agresif oleh mayoritas bank sentral untuk meredam tekanan inflasi. >Kebijakan tersebut memicu kekhawatiran inflasi yang berdampak negatif pada pergerakan indeks pasar modal. REVIEW : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Indonesia 2022 >Pandemi COVID-19 relatif terkendali pasca gelombang kedua di awal 2022. >Kenaikan nilai ekspor, ditengah tingginya harga komoditas berdampak positif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. >Pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia masih mampu mempertahankan kebijakan moneter dan fiskal akomodatif, setidaknya hingga Q3-2022. >Kenaikan harga BBM subsidi di September 2022 memicu kenaikan inflasi. >Kenaikan inflasi dan capital outflow di Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) mendorong BI untuk mulai menaikkan sukubunga acuan di September 2022. >Capital inflow cukup besar terjadi di pasar modal Indonesia menopang penguatan IHSG secara ytd. --------------- OUTLOOK : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Global 2023 >Pemerataan vaksinasi COVID-19 akan menjadi kunci berakhirnya pandemi COVID-19. >Belum ada titik terang penyelesaian perang Rusia-Ukraina. >Krisis energi dan krisis pangan akan menjadi perhatian utama di 2023. >Inflasi diperkirakan masih tinggi, terutama di 1Q-2023. >Bank-bank sentral diperkirakan masih akan mempertahankan sukubunga acuan di level tinggi, setidaknya hingga terdapat sinyal kuat penurunan inflasi. >Sejumlah negara diperkirakan memasuki resesi, sementara mayoritas negara di Asia diperkirakan masih bisa mempertahankan pertumbuhan ekonomi di 2023. OUTLOOK : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Indonesia 2023 >Pemerintah RI memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 5.2% yoy di 2023. >Postur anggaran membaik dibanding periode pandemi (2020-2022). >Tekanan bagi BI terkait kebijakan moneter diperkirakan masih cukup besar di 2023, mulai dari kenaikan inflasi hingga pelemahan nilai tukar Rupiah. >Sektor Perbankan Indonesia (SPI) diperkirakan masih mempertahankan tren kinerja positif di 2023 meski dibayangi potensi peningkatan restrukturisasi utang. >Target IHSG untuk tahun 2023 di level 8205 (base). >IDX Industrials Focus : Telecommunication; Telecommunication Tower; Media & Entertainment; Food & Beverages and Household Products; Financials—Bank; Energy - Coal Producers; Plantations - CPO Producers; Infrastructures - Building Construction; Property and Real Estate; Construction - Related; Automotive; Heavy Machinery.
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