The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell 5.3 points to 121.1 in March 2025, down from 126.4 in February 2025. This decline was driven by a 7-point drop in the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) to 131.7 in March 2025 and a 3.6-point decrease in the Current Economic Conditions Index (CECI) to 110.6 in March 2025 (Figure 1). All components of the CEI experienced declines, with the most significant decrease observed in the Job Availability Expectations Index, which fell 8.3 points to 125.9 from 134.2. It follows recent widespread layoffs (known locally as PHK) undertaken by many companies due to several factors, including decreased demand, bankruptcy, and production relocation.

Gubernur Fed Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, menegaskan bahwa keputusan suku bunga The Fed harus menunggu kejelasan kebijakan Presiden Donald Trump karena ketidakpastian kebijakan tersebut sangat memengaruhi arah perekonomian. Bostic memperkirakan suku bunga acuan dipertahankan di kisaran 4.25%-4.5% untuk menghindari risiko lonjakan inflasi akibat tarif impor yang tinggi. Tingkat pengangguran di Inggris tetap stabil di 4.4% dari Desember 2024 hingga Februari 2025. Jumlah pekerja meningkat 206 ribu dan mencapai rekor terbaru 34 juta. Sementara tingkat economic inactivity sedikit turun menjadi 21.4%. Selain itu, persentase pekerja dengan pekerjaan kedua naik menjadi 3.8% dari total tenaga kerja.

16 April 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street koreksi terbatas di Selasa (15/4). Fokus mulai bergeser kepada rilis kinerja keuangan 1Q25 dari perusahaan-perusahaan di AS. Pengamat mulai mengesampingkan kekhawatiran full-blown trade wars pasca keputusan AS mengesampingkan sejumlah produk elektronik dalam reciprocal tariffs. Wakil Presiden AS, JD Vance menyatakan besar peluang tercapai kesepakatan dagang antara AS dengan Inggris. IHSG diperkirakan bergerak fluktuatif dalam rentang 6350-6500 di Rabu (16/4). Pasar masih ragu terhadap keputusan pengecualian sejumlah produk teknologi informasi dari reciprocal tariffs oleh Pemerintah AS. Indonesia tengah melakukan negosiasi diwakili oleh tim yang dipimpin oleh Menko Perekonomian, Airlangga Hartarto. Isu tarif dan perlambatan konsumsi domestik berdampak pada penurunan indeks keyakinan konsumen ke 121.1 di Maret 2025 dari 126.4 di Februari 2025. Top picks (16/3) : BSDE, SIDO, INDF, BRPT dan MYOR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Net profit grew 117% YoY to IDR4.9 trillion in FY24. This growth is in line with the increase in revenue of 19.6% YoY to IDR13.8 trillion in FY24. In addition, the revenue margin also increased. Land and building sales remain the segment with the highest margin in FY24. Gross profit margin (GPM) from land and building sales was 66%, followed by the water management segment at 64% and Construction at 59%. BSDE marketing sales grew 2% YoY to IDR 9.7 trillion and exceeded the target of IDR 9.5 trillion in FY24. For FY25, BSDE is targeting marketing sales of IDR10 trillion (+3% YoY), which is contributed by the residential segment (51%), commercial (34%), and others (15%). The BSD city residential segment, as the flagship project of BSDE, is targeted tocontribute 18% of the total FY25F marketing sales target. We estimate that revenue will grow 8% YoY to reach IDR 15 trillion in FY25E. The continued implementation of loan-to-value (LTV) discounts, government-covered VAT incentives in 2025, and BSDE's strong reputation in project development are expected to be key growth drivers We maintain our buy rating for BSDE, which has an estimated fair value of 1185 (previously 1425) and a potential upside of 50.78%. The fair value is derived using the discounted cash flow method and net asset value revaluation, which reflects an expected P/E of 7.48x FY25F and a discount to NAV of 65%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

MTEL recorded revenue of IDR 2.49 trillion in 4Q24 (+5.14% QoQ; +7.25% YoY), bringing total FY24 revenue to IDR 9.31 trillion (+8.30% YoY). This result exceeded our estimates (Phintas: 103%) but was slightly below market consensus (Cons: 96%). Growth was primarily driven by a strong rebound in the fiber segment, which surged 40.40% YoY (+114.14% QoQ), reaching IDR 212 billion in 4Q24. Meanwhile, the tower leasing segment saw more modest growth, with revenue reaching IDR 1.96 trillion (+0.05% QoQ; +2.45% YoY). EBITDA for 4Q24 came in at IDR 2.03 trillion (+3.03% QoQ; +8.65% YoY), boosting total FY24 EBITDA to IDR 7.70 trillion (+11.18% YoY). The EBITDA margin expanded to 82.68% from 80.53% in FY23, reflecting solid operational efficiency. Net Profit for FY24 was IDR 2.11 trillion (+0.38% YoY), in line with our forecast (Phintas: 99%), although slightly below market consensus (Cons: 88%). MTEL continues to show operational resilience despite industry consolidation. The company recorded a solid +4.28% YoY growth in tenants, reaching 59.87 thousand tenants (vs. 57.41 thousand in FY23). Fiber network expansion saw significant growth, rising +56.94% YoY to 51.04 thousand km. The tenancy ratio stood at 1.52x (vs. 1.51x in FY23). MTEL operates 39 thousand towers, with 16 thousand towers in Java (41% of the portfolio) and a tenancy ratio of 1.64x. The rest of the towers are located outside Java (59% of the portfolio), with a lower tenancy ratio of 1.44x. While the tower industry is facing challenges due to consolidation, particularly with the EXCL-FREN merger, the impact on MTEL’s performance is expected to be limited, as EXCL’s contribution to MTEL’s revenue is relatively small (FY24: 12.16% vs. 4-year average of 10.58%). For FY25E, we forecast MTEL to achieve a revenue of IDR 9.58 trillion, driven by a strong tower leasing segment (IDR 7.84 trillion). This growth will be supported by a recovery in demand for collocation services and build-to-suit (B2S) offerings, particularly from tenants like IOH. MTEL has allocated a capex budget of IDR 5.4 trillion for FY25E, targeting an additional 2.5 thousand new tenants (net after EXCL-FREN consolidation). MTEL has set a target of expanding 10 thousand km of fiber through both organic and inorganic strategies. We estimate fiber business revenue to grow +3.65% YoY to IDR 579 billion in FY25E. EBITDA is expected to reach IDR 7.88 trillion in FY25E, with margins remaining strong at around 82.31% to 82.51% for FY25-F27F. Despite the moderate growth outlook and elevated interest expenses, we expect net profit to grow by +3.90% YoY to IDR 3.90 trillion in FY25E. We maintain our BUY rating for MTEL with a revised target price of IDR 700 (previous: IDR 720), reflecting an EV/EBITDA of 9.7x for FY25F. Despite headwinds from industry consolidation, MTEL’s long-term prospects remain positive, underpinned by a solid capital structure, low leverage, and growth potential from the fiber business. Downside Risks: 1)Weakening tenant demand, particularly for new build-to-suit (B2S) projects and collocation. 2) Pressure from high interest rates, which could affect profitability. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research – Disclaimer On – Contact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat di Senin (14/4). Pemerintah AS mengecualikan sejumlah produk, meliputi smartphones, computers dan komponen elektronik lain (khususnya semiconductors) dari kebijakan tarif. Merespon kebijakan tersebut, U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield turun 11 bps ke 4.382% di Senin (14/4). Harga emas alami koreksi (-0.7%) pasca sentuh level tertinggi baru di level US$3,245.42/troy oz di Senin siang waktu setempat. Harga minyak sideways merespon proyeksi penurunan permintaan minyak global sebesar 150 ribu barel per hari oleh OPEC. Pemerintah Indonesia dijadwalkan mengutus “tim negosiasi” yang dipimpin oleh Menko Bidang Perekonomian, Airlangga Hartarto ke AS pada hari ini (15/4). IHSG masih memiliki ruang untuk kembali coba tutup gap ke 6500 di Selasa (15/4). Cadangan Devisa bulan Maret 2025 catat level tertinggi sepanjang masa. Top picks (15/3) : PGAS, BRIS, INDY, ACES, dan ISAT. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

15 April 2025

Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves grew by 1.68% MoM to US$157.1 billion in March 2025, up from US$154.1 billion in February 2025. The increase was driven by tax and service receipts and government external debt withdrawals amid the Rupiah exchange rate stabilization policy implemented in response to heightened global financial market uncertainty. Furthermore, the current position of foreign exchange reserves remains high, equivalent to financing 6.7 months of imports or 6.5 months of imports and government external debt payments, exceeding the international adequacy standard of approximately 3 months of imports.

INDF booked revenue growth of 3.66% YoY to IDR115.78 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by an increase in branded consumer products (CBP) segment sales by 6.88% YoY to IDR73.32 trillion in FY24. On a quarterly basis, CBP segment sales decreased 5.52% QoQ to IDR17.75 trillion in 4Q24 due to purchasing power pressure. We estimate CBP segment sales to potentially recover in 1Q25, driven by increased demand during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr period. INDF booked operating profit by segment growth of 16% YoY in FY24. The growth was driven by Agribusiness segment operating profit, which increased significantly by 88.28% QoQ to IDR1.78 trillion in 4Q24 so that cumulatively, Agribusiness segment operating profit increased by 73% YoY to IDR3.66 trillion in FY24. This increase was in line with the high CPO price in 4Q24, which caused the Agribusiness segment's sales to increase. INDF's net profit increased by 13.78% YoY to IDR13.07 trillion in FY24. The increase in net profit was in line with solid operating performance driven by an increase in operating profit of all INDF's business segments on a quarterly and cumulative basis. We estimate INDF's net profit to potentially increase by 5.57% YoY to IDR13.8 trillion in FY25F. This estimate aligns with the potential for stable operational performance so that profitability can be maintained. In the future, fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate need to be considered as they could potentially affect INDF's profitability. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.77% and Terminal Growth of 2.95%, we estimate INDF's fair value at IDR9,000 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on INDF with a higher target and potential upside of 30.43%.