3 Januari 2024

>Nasdaq melemah 1.63%, diikuti S&p 500 yang melemah 0.57%, sementara DJIA ditutup flat (0.07%) di Selasa (2/1). >Pelemahan tersebut dinilai sebagai bentuk profit taking oleh pelaku pasar. >Mayoritas indeks utama di Eropa juga melemah di Selasa (2/1) merespon data indeks manufaktur Euro Area yang kurang memuaskan. >Iran dikabarkan menugaskan satu unit destroyer ke wilayah Laut Merah. >Keputusan Tiongkok untuk kembali menerapkan bea impor batubara asal beberapa negara mengindikasikan kemampuan Tiongkok memenuhi kebutuhan energinya secara mandiri. >IHSG diperkirakan kembali fluktuatif dalam rentang 7250-7300 di Rabu (3/1). >Indeks manufaktur Indonesia naik ke 52.2 di Desember dari 51.7 di November 2023. >Inflasi inti Indonesia relatif stabil di 1.8% yoy. Kondisi ini menjadi indikator awal solidnya konsumsi masyarakat sampai dengan akhir 2023.

**REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023** >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. **REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023** >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023.PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT) *"2024 Economic & Market Outlook: Searching for Opportunities in a Political Year."* -December 2023- --------------- *REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023* >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. *REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023* >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023. --------------- *OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. *OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id www.taspro.co.id --------------- **OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. **OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

>BBCA's net profit increased 26% yoy to IDR 36.4 trillion in 9M23.This growth was in line with the growth in NII (+21.3%) yoy and a decrease in provision costs (-41.5%) yoy. >BBCA's credit quality remains healthy despite high credit growth. BBCA recorded gross Non-Performing Loans (NPL) falling 20 bps to 2.0% yoy in 9M23. >Consistently records the highest CASA ratio compared to peers in the last three years. >Lowest Cost of Funds (CoF) compared to peers amidst high-interest rates. >BBCA will optimize Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) in 2024F, accompanied by a decrease in Loan at Risk (LaR) in 2023. >BBCA is developing Two flagship mobile apps, myBCA and BCAmobile. >Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.14% and Terminal Growth of 7.97%, we estimate the fair value of BBCA at 10,718 (26.97x expected P/E). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

2 Januari 2024

>Nasdaq memimpin penguatan mayoritas indeks di Wall Street dengan mencatatkan penguatan sebesar 43.4% ytd, diikuti S&P 500 sebesar 24.2% ytd dan DJIA sebesar 13.7%. >DAX menguat hampir 20% ytd, diikuti CAC40 (16.4% ytd) dan FTSE 100 (3.64% ytd). >HSI melemah 14% ytd, ementara CSI 400 (Tiongkok) melemah 11.8% ytd di 2023. >Nikkei 225 menguat 28% ytd, KOSPI menguat 17.7% ytd dan ASX 200 menguat 7.84% ytd di tahun 2023. >IHSG ditutup menguat 6.16% ytd di 2023. >Rally terjadi di akhir November 2023 hingga Desember 2023. >Kondisi ini salah satunya dipicu oleh keputusan BI untuk menahan sukubunga acuan di November dan Desember 2023. >Potensi January effect untuk melanjutkan window dressing di dua bulan terakhir 2023 berpotensi menopang rally IHSG di awal tahun ini.

28 Desember 2023

27 Desember 2023

>Indeks-indeks Wall Street kembali ditutup menguat di Rabu (27/12). >Data terbaru dari ekonomi AS membangun ekspektasi pasar bahwa The Fed akan menurunkan sukubunga acuan pada Q1-2024. >CME Fedwatch Tool menunjukkan probabilitas pemangkasan The Fed Rate sebesar 71.3% pada FOMC Maret 2024. >Indeks-indeks di Eropa ditutup menguat di Rabu (27/12). Penguatan ini menyusul penguatan bursa-bursa di Wall Street, dimana S&P 500 semakin mendekati level tertingginya. >IHSG diperkirakan akan konsolidasi di pivot level 7250 di Kamis (28/12). >Dari regional, Investor merespon data China Industrial Profits yang melambat 4.4% yoy di November 2023, membaik dari penurunan 7.8% yoy di Oktober 2023. >Hari perdagangan yang lebih singkat pada pekan ini, menyusul libur pergantian tahun, turut mempengaruhi sikap hati-hati pelaku pasar. >Pelaku pasar dapat memperhatikan saham-saham dengan peluang rebound dan rebound lanjutan seperti HRUM, EMTK, CMRY, SMDR, TINS dan ANTM.

>Indeks-indeks Wall Street lanjutkan bullish trend di Selasa (26/12). >Investor merspon positif data terbaru yang menunjukkan inflasi semakin mendekati target 2% Federal Reserve. >US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) sebesar 3.2% yoy turun (-0.1% mom) di November 2023. >US 10-year Treasury Yield kembali turun ke 3.89% di Selasa (26/12). >IHSG berpotensi uji pivot 7250 pada perdagangan Rabu (27/12) >Bank Indonesia memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada tahun 2024 akan tumbuh 4.7% yoy - 5.5% yoy. >Belanja pemerintah juga berpotensi meningkat seiring dengan pembangunan Proyek Strategis Nasional (PSN). >Kinerja investasi berpotensi meningkat sejalan dengan kepercayaan investor terhadap fundamental perekonomian domestik. >Top picks di Rabu (27/12) adalah BFIN, BBNI, ELSA, INCO, SCMA, SMGR dan TLKM.