Consumer confidence rose slightly in May 2025, reaching 117.8, primarily due to improved current economic conditions, despite growing concerns about job availability. This period also saw increased consumer spending, particularly on consumption, leading to a decline in savings for lower-middle-income groups. Retail sales, after a dip in May, are projected to rebound in June, driven by the automotive and apparel sectors, as well as the alignment with upcoming holidays and promotions.

9 July 2025

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup mixed (8/7). Pasar mencermati kejelasan perkembangan tarif Trump. Trump akan mengenakan tarif sebesar 50% pada impor tembaga. Trump juga berencana akan memberlakukan tarif tinggi seperti 200%  pada impor farmasi. Data retail sales domestik bulan Mei 2025  diperkirakan naik 0.3% YoY dari turun 0.3% YoY di April 2025 (9/7). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 1 bps ke 4.407%. Harga emas turun 0.8% ke  level US$3,307/troy oz, didorong oleh penguatan dollar AS dan yield US-Treasury. >Secara teknikal diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi melanjutkan rebound jika bertahan di atas 6900 didukung volume. Top picks (9/7): BUMI, TAPG, INTP, JPFA dan ISAT. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Ratna Lim

Last night (7/7), U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter to ASEAN leaders announcing the continuation of reciprocal import tariff policies, which will take effect on August 1, 2025. It is expected to cause corrections in ASEAN financial markets, including stock and bond markets. It is also anticipated that ASEAN Central Banks, especially Bank Indonesia, will likely maintain a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate cuts due to concerns about inflation. Indonesia faces a 32% tariff on all exported products, unchanged from the initial rate before the 90-day tariff policy delay was implemented. Other countries face different rates, such as Malaysia, which has a rate of 25%, up from 24%, although still lower than other ASEAN nations like Laos and Myanmar, both at 40%. It is followed by the top 6 ASEAN countries, Thailand and Cambodia, both at 36%.

We expect TAPG booked revenue of IDR 10.5 trillion in FY25F (+9.0% YoY), supported by higher sales volumes of CPO (~680 thousand tons, +6.9% YoY) and PKO (~27 thousand tons, +9.2% YoY). The strong growth was driven by robust domestic demand following the B40 biodiesel mandate, as well as solid PKO demand as a cocoa butter substitute. CPO remains the main revenue contributor (~87%), followed by palm kernel (~9%) and PKO (~4%). In terms of profitability, TAPG is projected to record a net profit of IDR 3.4 trillion (+10.9% YoY), with a solid net profit margin at 32.8%. This strong performance is underpinned by manageable cost of goods sold, stable fertilizer costs (~IDR 802 billion, +2.0% YoY), and controlled external FFB purchases (~17–18% of total processed volume). Meanwhile, lower interest expenses (estimated at IDR 53 billion, –16.6% YoY) further strengthen the company’s capital structure and support profitability. TAPG also maintains strong operational fundamentals, with a blended plantation age profile of 14.2 years and ~82% of planted area in the productive phase (7–20 years old). The nucleus estate yield remains solid at ~23 tons/ha, supporting steady production and healthy margins. Total FFB processed is projected to rise to ~3.96 million tons (+2.7% YoY) in FY25F, with internal supply remaining dominant (~82–83%). On the cash flow side, robust free cash flow (7Y CAGR: 24.7%) enables an aggressive dividend policy, reflected in a sharply higher total dividend of IDR 3.3 trillion in FY24 (DPR: 106.3%). The DPS increased significantly to IDR 167 (yield: ~25%), while the cash balance remains healthy at around IDR 1 trillion by end-2024. This supports future expansion while maintaining attractive shareholder returns. We initiate coverage on TAPG with a BUY recommendation and a target price of IDR 1,300 per share, reflecting FY25F valuations of 7.5x PER and 2.2x PBV, using a DCF approach (WACC: 16.4%; terminal growth: 2%). We like TAPG for its productive plantation profile, solid balance sheet, and strong cash generation, which provide flexibility for measured long-term growth. Key risks include lower-than-expected FFB yield, CPO price volatility, and unfavorable regulatory changes. Overall, TAPG is well-positioned to maintain strong operational performance and deliver sustainable value going forward. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On-

Presiden Donald Trump akan menjalakan tarif impor di 1 Agustus 2025 setelah memberi waktu tambahan bagi negara-negara mitra dagang untuk mencapai kesepakatan baru. Kebijakan ini disertai ancaman tarif tambahan sebesar 10% untuk negara yang dianggap mendukung kebijakan BRICS, tanpa pengecualian. Sementara itu, pasar keuangan global menunjukkan reaksi negatif, dengan indeks S&P 500 turun 0.5% dan dolar AS menguat 0.5% terhadap beberapa mata uang yang direpresentasikan oleh Dollar Index. Penjualan ritel di Uni Eropa meningkat 1.9% YoY, dengan zona euro mencatat pertumbuhan 1.8% YoY. Secara bulanan, volume penjualan ritel turun 0.8% MoM di UE dan 0.7% MoM di zona euro, dipengaruhi oleh penurunan signifikan di Swedia sebesar 4.6%. Meskipun penurunan ini menimbulkan kekhawatiran, potensi pemulihan tetap ada karena daya beli mulai membaik.  

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah cukup signifikan pada Senin (7/7). Presiden Trump mengirimkan surat kepada beberapa negara dan memberikan tarif impor lebih tinggi. Deadline tarif diperpanjang dari 9 Juli 2025 menjadi 1 Agustus 2025. Trump mengancam akan memberlakukan tarif tambahan sebesar 10% terhadap negara-negara yang mendukung kebijakan aliansi BRICS. Indonesia juga mendapatkan surat dari Trump dan dikenakan tarif sebesar 32%. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 5 bps menjadi 4.387%. Harga emas koreksi 0.1% ke US$3,332/troy oz. Jika IHSG gagal bertahan di atas 6900, diperkirakan akan kembali menguji level support di 6800. Top picks (8/7): PTRO, BREN, SRTG, ASII, TLKM dan BBRI. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Ratna Lim - Disclaimer On -

8 July 2025

Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves increased to US$152.6 billion in June 2025 from US$152.5 billion in May 2025. It was attributed to factors including increased tax and service revenues, as well as government global bond issuance amid Rupiah exchange rate stabilization policies in response to global economic uncertainties. The foreign exchange reserves position at the end of June 2025 was equivalent to 6.4 months of imports or 6.2 months of imports and government external debt payments, well above the international adequacy standard of approximately 3 months of imports.

Mitra dagang utama Amerika Serikat (AS) bergegas menyelesaikan kesepakatan dagang menjelang tenggat waktu 9 Juli 2025, di mana tarif impor yang lebih tinggi akan mulai diberlakukan jika tidak ada kemajuan signifikan. Presiden Donald Trump telah menandatangani surat pemberitahuan tarif yang akan dikirimkan kepada sekitar belasan negara, dengan tarif yang bervariasi antara 10% hingga 70%, dan pemberlakuan tarif dijadwalkan mulai 1 Agustus 2025. Negosiasi intensif selama akhir pekan melibatkan Jepang, Korea Selatan, Uni Eropa, India, dan Vietnam, namun kesepakatan masih belum sepenuhnya tercapai, sehingga ketidakpastian tetap tinggi di pasar global. Indonesia optimistis dapat segera mengamankan kesepakatan dagang dengan Amerika Serikat yang mencakup mineral tanah jarang, energi, kerja sama pertahanan, dan akses pasar sebelum tenggat waktu tarif 9 Juli 2025. Pemerintah berkomitmen menerapkan tarif mendekati nol pada lebih dari 1.700 komoditas atau hampir 70% dari total impor AS, termasuk elektronik, mesin, bahan kimia, dan otomotif. Selain itu, Indonesia akan memperkuat kerja sama di sektor mineral dan militer serta melonggarkan aturan untuk memberikan perlakuan lebih adil bagi perusahaan AS, demi hubungan ekonomi yang seimbang dan berkelanjutan.