The US labor market conditions in February 2025 were favorable, marked by three labor data indicators: unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, and wage growth rate. This data indicates that the US economy is improving despite The Fed's tendency to maintain a hawkish stance since the last 25bps cut on December 18, 2024. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.1% in February 2025 from 4.0% in January 2025 and above market expectations of 4%.

JPFA's net profit increased 239.6% YoY to IDR3.21 trillion in FY24. The net profit growth aligned with an interest income increase of 13.45% YoY to IDR50 billion in FY24 (vs. IDR44 billion in FY23). In addition, JPFA's interest expenses decreased by 11.98% YoY to IDR870 billion in FY24 (vs. IDR988 billion in FY23). The Commercial Farm segment successfully booked an operating profit of IDR1.59 trillion in FY24. The Commercial Farm segment's operating profit in FY24 marks the first profit for the segment after experiencing operating losses from 2019 to 2023. The positive performance of the Commercial Farm segment in FY24 was in line with the increase in average Live Bird prices by 9.96% QoQ or 10.38% YoY in 4Q24 to IDR20,174/Kg. Raw material price stability can potentially drive JPFA's profitability. The average domestic corn price in February 2025 was IDR6,360/kg, which decreased by around 1% MoM from IDR6,426/kg in January 2025. Meanwhile, the average price of Soybean Meal (SBM) was US$300/ton, which decreased by around 3% MoM from US$310/ton in January 2025. JPFA conducted a study on nutritious meal programs in schools from May to June 2024. Overall, the study's results can improve students' nutritional intake, which is reflected in the reduction of the number of students with malnutrition status by 2.8%. This initiative signifies JPFA's readiness to support and collaborate with the government in the Free Nutritious Meal program, which is currently underway in stages. With JPFA's performance exceeded our expectations, we increased our FY25F projection. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on JPFA with a higher fair value estimate of IDR2,400 per share (Expected PE at 6.83x and EV/EBITDA at 4.73x in FY25F). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BBTN booked an interest income of IDR29.55 trillion, growing by 4.5% YoY in FY24. Meanwhile, interest expense increased by 21.9% YoY to IDR17.85 trillion, with a pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) of IDR5.87 trillion (-28.7% YoY) in FY24. Housing Loans continue to support BBTN's loan growth. BBTN's loans & financing grew 7.3% YoY to IDR358 trillion in FY24. BBTN continues to strive to increase fee-based income by launching Bale by BTN in February 2025 to increase BBTN's transactional banking. Management targets the number of Bale by BTN users to grow 62% YoY in FY25F compared to previous BTN mobile banking users. BBTN will continue its efforts to develop high-yield loans in FY25F. BBTN targets 15 Sales Centers in FY25, compared to 9 Sales Centers in FY24. management targets the contribution to non-subsidized KPR to increase >20% in FY25. With BBTN's performance supported by various stimuli for the property sector (three million homes program, property tax elimination) and a potentially lower BI rate in FY25F, we estimate that BBTN's net profit can grow by around 20% YoY in FY25F. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.15% and Terminal Growth of 7.56%, we estimate BBTN's fair value at 1,250 (4.5x expected P/E). Considering BBTN's fair price and relative valuation below -1 standard deviation of 0.51 of its 5-year P/E, we maintain our buy rating for BBTN with a lower fair value and potential upside of 26.26% By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

12 March 2025

DJIA (-1.14%) memimpin pelemahan indeks-indeks Wall Street di Selasa (11/3). Presiden AS, Donald Trump meningkatkan tarif produk baja dan alumunium asal Kanada dari 25% menjadi 50% berlaku mulai Rabu (12/3), sebelum akhirnya ditunda. Sebelumnya, Ontario Premier, Dough Ford memberlakukan biaya tambahan bagi ekspor listrik ke AS, meski akhirnya kebijakan ini ditunda. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield kembali ke kisaran 4.28% (11/3). Risiko intensifikasi perang dagang dikhawatirkan berdampak pada kenaikan inflasi di AS yang akan membatasi ruang pemangkasan the Fed Rate. Inflasi AS akan menjadi fokus pelaku pasar di Rabu (12/3) karena diyakini akan menjadi salah satu penentu keputusan FOMC di 18-19 Maret 2025 mendatang. Pelemahan IHSG yang relatif mild dibanding Wall Street (11/3) memperkuat keyakinan bahwa pasar di Indonesia relatif telah melakukan price in terhadap sentimen pemangkasan rating pasar saham Indonesia oleh Goldman Sachs sejak pemangkasan yang lebih dulu diumumkan oleh Morgan Stanley. Masih terbuka peluang selective buying pada saham bank berkapitalisasi besar. Top picks (12/3) : ASII, BBNI, BMRI, AUTO, dan ANTM.

Job Totl Opening di Amerika Serikat meningkat sebesar 232.000 menjadi 7.74 juta di Januari 2025 dari 7.51 juta di Desember 2024. Peningkatan signifikan terjadi di sektor perdagangan ritel (+143.000), keuangan dan asuransi (+77.000), serta perawatan kesehatan dan bantuan sosial (+58.000). Penjualan ritel di Inggris tumbuh sebesar 0.9% YoY di Februari 2025 dari kenaikan 2.5% YoY di Januari 2025 dan di bawah perkiraan kenaikan 2.4%. Konsumen terus mengurangi pembelian di tengah krisis biaya hidup yang berkelanjutan. Meskipun demikian, belanja impulsif yang dipicu Hari Valentine memberikan dorongan sementara bagi penjual. Indeks Kepercayaan Konsumen (IKK) Indonesia turun menjadi 126.4 di Februari 2025 dari 127.2 di Januari 2025, menandai penurunan bulan kedua berturut-turut. Penurunan ini dipicu oleh melemahnya daya beli dan menyusutnya kelas menengah, dengan sebagian besar sub-indeks menunjukkan penurunan, seperti indeks ketersediaan lapangan kerja turun 2.8 poin menjadi 134.2 dan indeks prospek ekonomi turun 2.1 poin menjadi 138.7.

Presiden Donald Trump memberikan pernyataan tentang ekonomi AS sedang dalam "periode transisi" dan menepis kekhawatiran perlambatan ekonomi akibat kebijakan tarif dan pengurangan tenaga kerja federal. Tarif 25% untuk impor baja dan aluminium mulai berlaku (12/03). Hal ini akan berdampak pada Indeks Harga Produsen (IHP) akan dirilis pada Kamis (13/03), dengan IHP inti diperkirakan naik 3.5% YoY, menunjukkan tarif impor akan menaikan harga bahan mentah di tingkat produsen. Gubernur The Fed Jerome Powell menyatakan perlunya bukti kemajuan nyata dalam penurunan inflasi atau pelemahan pasar tenaga kerja sebelum mempertimbangkan pemotongan suku bunga. Tim ekonom Bloomberg memperkirakan inflasi inti dan keseluruhan IHK naik 0.3% di Februari 2025. Penjualan sepeda motor di Indonesia mengalami pertumbuhan sebesar 4.0% YoY pada Februari 2025, menandai pemulihan setelah penurunan 5.5% YoY di bulan sebelumnya. Peningkatan ini dipengaruhi oleh pergeseran konsumsi masyarakat menjelang Idul Fitri. Meskipun terjadi kenaikan sebesar 3.7% MoM, angka ini lebih rendah dibandingkan lonjakan di Januari akibat pemberlakuan pajak tambahan sepeda motor di tahun 2025.  

Nasdaq melemah 4% memimpin pelemahan indeks Wall Street lainnya (10/3). Pelemahan dipicu oleh kekhawatiran resesi di AS yang dipicu oleh kebijakan tarif oleh Pemerintah AS. Presiden AS, Donald Trump menilai hal tersebut sebagai “periode transisi” sementara Menteri Keuangan AS, Scott Bessent menganalogikannya sebagai “detox period”. Goldman Sachs revisi proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi AS ke 1.7% dari 2.4% di 2025. Kekhawatiran terhadap resesi di atas memicu rotasi ke pasar obligasi yang diindikasikan dari penurunan U.S. 10-year Bond Yield dari kisaran 4.28% di pekan lalu ke kisaran 4.22% di Senin (10/3). Goldman Sachs juga memangkas peringkat saham Indonesia dari overweight menjadi market weight dan merevisi peringkat Indonesia 10-year Bond menjadi netral (10/3). Revisi peringkat dari Goldman Sachs di atas berpotensi memicu aksi sell-off khususnya oleh Investor Asing. IHSG berpotensi melemah ke kisaran support area 6500-6550. Jika breaklow 6500, potensi pelemahan lanjutan ke kisaran 6370-6400. Top picks (11/3) : ICBP, INDF, MAPA, INDY dan EMTK. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

11 March 2025

MYOR booked revenue growth of 14.57% YoY to IDR36.1 trillion in FY24. The growth was in line with the increase in production capacity from the new plant, the launch of several new products, and product selling price adjustments. The potential for increased demand during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr is believed to maintain the positive trend of MYOR's revenue. MYOR still has the challenge of rising raw material prices. The average price of cocoa increased 135.6% YoY to US$7,980/ton in FY24. Meanwhile, the average price of coffee increased by 37.7% YoY to US$239/Lbs in FY24. This condition made MYOR's cost of goods sold increase by 20.46% YoY to IDR26.85 trillion in FY24, therefore making MYOR's Gross Profit Margin (GPM) decreased in FY24 to 25.57%. We assess that MYOR's future profitability recovery will depend on the price normalization of both raw materials. MYOR booked a net profit growth of 227% QoQ to IDR1 trillion in 4Q24. The growth was in line with the increase in revenue by 10.8% QoQ to IDR10.43 trillion due to the launch of several new products and product selling price adjustments made since October 2024. Meanwhile, on an annualized basis, MYOR's net profit decreased by 5.46% YoY to IDR3.1 trillion in FY24 due to the higher raw material prices and higher interest expenses by 40.52% YoY to IDR425 billion in line with the issuance of IDR500 billion bonds. MYOR is targeting revenue growth of 12-15% YoY in FY25, while GPM is targeted at 23-25%, assuming coffee and cocoa prices remain relatively stable until the end of 2025. In addition, MYOR has budgeted capital expenditures of IDR1 trillion in 2025, which are focused on driving expansion and increasing production capacity. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.18% and Terminal Growth of 3.73%, we estimate MYOR's fair value at IDR2,850 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on MYOR with a lower target and potential upside of 23.38%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -