Indeks-Indeks Wall Street ditutup melemah di Rabu (28/8). US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index di Juli, diperkirakan meningkat dari 2.5% yoy di Juni menjadi 2.6% di Juli. Rilis kinerja keuangan NVIDIA yang lanjut mencatatkan pertumbuhan berpotensi memicu rebound di Kamis (29/8). IHSG berhasil ditutup menguat dan mencetak rekor all time highnya di level 7,658.875 (+0.80%) pada Rabu (28/8). Secara teknikal IHSG berhasil menembus level strong resist di level 7600, yang tervalidasi dengan adanya pelebaran positif slope MACD, sehigga IHSG berpotensi menguji level resistance berikutnya di 7700 pada Kamis (29/8). Di Jerman, akan dirilis data inflasi awal bulan Agustus, dengan proyeksi turun menjadi 2.10% YoY dari 2.30% YoY di bulan Juli. Pasar menantikan rilis estimasi GDP growth rate kuartal kedua, yang diprediksi membaik dari 1.40% pada kuartal pertama menjadi 2.80%. Top picks di Kamis (29/8) meliputi BBCA, BBNI, MAPI, BRPT dan MBMA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Nurwachidah - Disclaimer On -

TLKM recorded revenue growth of 1.27% YoY in 2Q24, primarily driven by significant increases in the data, internet, and IT services segment (+7.17% YoY). The performance of the IndiHome segment experienced a sharp decline of -15.12% YoY, weighing down the company's total revenue. Early Retirement Program (ERP) and investment in GOTO contributed to a decline in EBITDA by -4.86% YoY and a reduction in net profit by -9.85% YoY. Telkomsel Lite saw subscriber growth of +4.30% YoY, despite a decline in ARPU due to targeting the low-cost market segment. Telkom introduced EZNet with competitive pricing in the fixed broadband market, expected to increase the number of subscribers but potentially pressuring ARPU and yield. We maintain our BUY recommendation for TLKM with a lower target price of IDR3,440 per share, reflecting a potential upside of 15.40%. This valuation is based on DCF with terminal growth of 2%. This upside potential implies a PER and EV/EBITDA valuation of 14.56x and 4.80x, respectively, for FY24F. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate continues to decline. The CPI inflation rate in Indonesia stood at 2.13% YoY in July 2024. We estimate that the sluggish CPI inflation rate can potentially increase public consumption, which can positively correlate with issuers' financial performance in the consumer sector. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is maintained at an optimistic level. We assess that consumer confidence maintained above the 120 level indicates that Indonesia's economic conditions are still quite strong, which has the potential to keep people's purchasing power solid and support future economic growth. The Retail Sales Index (RSI) experienced an increase in June 2024. The Retail Sales Index (RSI) was recorded at 229.0 in June 2024. We expect the Retail Sales Index (RSI) to be maintained in line with several National Holidays in 2H24 (Independence Day of the Republic of Indonesia and HBKN Christmas 2024), which have the potential to increase public consumption. The flagship program of President and Vice President-elect Prabowo-Gibran, namely Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG), has been officially included in the Draft State Budget and Expenditure (RAPBN) for Fiscal Year 2025 with a budget allocation of Rp71 trillion or equivalent to 0.29% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The program has the potential to positively impact several sectors, one of which is the consumer sector (for processed foods such as spices and their supporters), so it can boost the company's financial performance. Prices of key raw materials flatten. During the first semester of 2024, the average price of Wheat was around US$596/Bu, a significant decline of 13.6% YoY. meanwhile, the average CPO price was around MYR4,014/ton, an increase of around 3% YoY. We assess that if both commodity prices tend to stabilize in the future, it will potentially increase the profitability of consumer sector issuers. Consumer sector issuers in our coverage still recorded sales growth in the first half of 2024. MYOR recorded sales growth of 9.48% YoY to IDR16.2 trillion, ICBP recorded sales growth of 7.20% YoY to Rp36.9 trillion, and INDF recorded sales growth of 2.16% YoY to IDR57.29 trillion. We recommend Overweight in the consumer sector with various catalysts above. Our top picks are MYOR, with estimated fair value of IDR2,950 > ICBP, with estimated fair value of IDR12,504 > and INDF, with estimated fair value of IDR7,842. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

28 Agustus 2024

Indeks-Indeks di Wall Street dan Eropa ditutup menguat di Selasa (27/8). US CB consumer confidence di Agustus sebesar 103.3 meningkat dari 101.9 di Juli serta lebih baik dari proyeksi (100.7) IHSG menjauhi overbought area bersamaan dengan koreksi Selasa (27/8). Sehingga potensi uji 7600 masih terbuka. Tiongkok membukukan pertumbuhan industrial profit (YTD) sebesar 3.6% yoy di Juli 2024, naik dari 3.5% yoy di Juni 2024. Jerman membukukan realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi 0% yoy di 2Q24, lebih baik dari perkiraan (-0.1% yoy) dan kondisi 1Q24 (-0.1% yoy). Belum ada kejutan signifikan dari hari pertama pendaftaran calon kepala daerah untuk Pilkada November 2024 nanti. Situasi politik relatif kondusif. Top picks di Rabu (28/8) meliputi: BMRI, BBNI, ERAA, ACES, CPIN, JPFA, MAIN, dan TLKM. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research _Nurwachidah_ - Disclaimer On -

Nasdaq (-0.85%) dan S&P500 (-0.32%) melemah dibayangi oleh pelemahan harga saham-saham teknologi menjelang rilis kinerja keuangan terbaru. Pengamat meyakini pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed sebanyak 2-3 kali, masing-masing sebesar 25 bps di sisa 2024. Harga minyak bumi menguat sekitar 3% di Senin (26/8) dipicu oleh production halt di Libya akibat dispute antara eastern government dengan western government. Pasar mengantisipasi rilis data U.S. CB Consumer Confidence bulan Agustus 2024 (27/8) yang diperkirakan tetap berada di level optimis menjadi 100.1. Jerman dijadwalkan rilis data pertumbuhan ekonomi Final di 2Q24 yang diperkirakan masih terkontraksi (-0.1% YoY). Pasar menantikan rilis data Industrial Profits YTD di China pada Juli 2024 yang dijadwalkan rilis pada Selasa (27/8). Jika IHSG mampu bertahan diatas level 7600, maka IHSG berpotensi lanjutkan penguatan uji 7650 di Selasa (27/8). Top picks (27/8) : ESSA, MDKA, SMRA,BNGA, ANTM, dan BBTN. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

27 Agustus 2024

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat lebih dari 1% di Jumat (23/8). Penguatan ditopang sinyal kuat pemangkasan sukubunga acuan dari Kepala the Fed, Jerome Powell (23/8). Pertumbuhan penjualan rumah baru mencapai 10.6% mom di Juli 2024. Hal di atas berpotensi mendorong berlanjutnya penguatan nilai tukar Rupiah atau setidaknya menjaga strong position nilai tukar Rupiah pada pekan ini. Pendaftaran calon kepala daerah ke KPU dijadwalkan pada 27-29 Agustus 2024. Pelaksanaan Pilkada dijadwalkan pada akhir November 2024, satu bulan setelah pelantikan Presiden dan Wakil Presiden. IHSG diperkirakan uji resistance 7580-7600 pada pekan ini. Top picks : PGAS, AALI, PTPP, AUTO, INCO, dan HRUM. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

26 Agustus 2024

Indeks-indeks Wall Street melemah di Kamis (22/8) dipimpin oleh Nasdaq (-1.67%). U.S. Initial Jobless Claims naik ke 232 ribu di pekan lalu dari 228 ribu di pekan sebelumnya. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash turun ke 48 di Agustus dari 49.6 di Juli 2024. Pasar menantikan pidato Kepala the Fed, Jerome Powell dalam Jackson Hole Symposium di Jumat (23/8) pagi waktu setempat. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI Flash turun ke 45.6 di Agustus dari 45.8 di Juli 2024, tapi indeks sektor jasa (Flashi) naik ke 53.3 di Agustus dari 51.9 di Juli 2024. Realisasi pertumbuhan oil demand di Tiongkok sebesar 200,000 barel/hari di 1H24 dibanding rata-rata 600,000 barel/hari di 2016-2019. DPR RI batal mengesahkan RUU Pilkada yang baru karena Rapat Paripurna yang tidak kuorum di Kamis (22/8) dan desakan penolakan dari elemen masyarakat. IHSG rawan mengalami pullback lanjutan ke kisaran 7450 di Jumat (23/8). Top picks (23/8) : ADRO, DOID, BMRI, BBNI, ERAA, dan CPIN. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -