CPIN's revenue amounted to IDR32.96 trillion in 6M24, growing 6.7% YoY from IDR30.89 trillion in 6M23. CPIN's revenue growth during the first half of 2024 was driven by significant growth in two of its business segments, Day-old Chick (DOC) by 40% YoY to IDR1 trillion (vs IDR722 billion in 6M23) and Processed Chicken by 34.45% YoY to IDR6 trillion (vs IDR4.48 trillion in 6M23). The increase in margin is in line with the decline in Corn and Soybean Meal (SBM) prices. The domestic corn price at the farmer level is IDR5,990/Kg, a significant 17.9% YTD decline from the 2024 starting price of IDR7,300/Kg. The decline in domestic corn prices is in line with the increasing harvest in the March-April 2024 period. Meanwhile, SBM prices stood at US$323/ton, down 14.84% YTD from the starting price of US$380/ton at the beginning of 2024. We assess that if the September-October harvest is abundant, then domestic corn prices have the potential to stabilize and thus improve the company's profitability. CPIN recorded net profit growth of 28.3% YoY to IDR1.76 trillion in 6M24. CPIN's net profit growth was driven by top-line growth as well as operational and non-operational gains. We assess that if CPIN can maintain and even improve its operational efficiency, it will potentially improve CPIN's bottom-line growth. CPIN has an extensive distribution network. CPIN has a retail network selling Processed Chick products such as Prima Freshmart, which can serve online transactions and physical stores in various locations, making it easily accessible to retail consumers. CPIN also collaborates with modern retailers to expand market penetration and reach various consumer segments. In addition, CPIN also has a distribution network for the international market in exporting Processed Chick products to multiple countries. During 6M24, CPIN's export sales grew significantly by 273% YoY to Rp90 billion (vs Rp24 billion in 6M23). Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 7.70% and Terminal Growth 3.86%, we estimate CPIN’s fair value at IDR5,850 per share (Expected PE at 26.75x and EV/EBITDA at 15.06x in FY24). We give CPIN a Buy rating with potential upside of 21.87%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

17 September 2024

Indeks-indeks Wall Street berakhir mixed di Senin (16/9). Wall Street ditopang oleh antisipasi pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed dalam FOMC 17-18 September 2024. Indeks-indeks di Eropa juga ditutup beragam di Senin (16/9). BoE juga dijadwalkan melangsungkan pertemuan pada pekan ini. Data ekonomi, khususnya dari regional Asia relatif mute pada pekan ini bersamaan dengan libur panjang pada bursa Jepang dan Tiongkok pada pekan ini. IHSG rawan koreksi ke kisaran 7780-7800 di hari Selasa (17/9). RDG BI dijadwalkan pada 20-21 September 2024. BI diyakini menahan sukubunga acuan dalam pertemuan tersebut. Pasar juga mengantisipasi data neraca perdagangan Indonesia bulan Agustus 2024. Pertumbuhan nilai ekspor dan impor diperkirakan kembali melambat di periode tersebut. Top picks (17/9) : BBRI, TLKM, EXCL, UNTR, RALS. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Nasdaq (+1%) memimpin penguatan indeks Wall Street lainnya pada perdagangan Kamis (12/9). Penguatan tersebut sejalan dengan penguatan mayoritas saham teknologi, termasuk Alphabet, Meta dan Nvidia (12/9). European Central Bank (ECB) kembali memangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps ke 4% di 12 September 2024. Akan tetapi, ECB tidak menjamin akan ada pemangkasan lainnya di sisa 2024. Industrial production Jepang diperkirakan tumbuh 2.8% mom di Juli 2024 membaik dari kontraksi 4.2% mom di Juni 2024. Rebound harga minyak berlanjut di Kamis (12/9) menyusul gangguan supply akibat Topan Francine. Harga brent menguat 1.93%, sementara harga crude menguat 2.47% di Kamis (12/9). IHSG berpotensi kembali uji resistance level 7850 di Jum'at (13/9). Top picks (13/9) : ANTM, HRUM, MBMA, JSMR, TINS, dan CPIN. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

13 September 2024

Indeks-indeks Wall Street sempat fluktuatif di awal perdagangan, sebelum ditutup menguat signifikan di Rabu (11/9). Inflasi inti naik ke 0.3% mom di Agustus 2024 dari 0.2% mom di Juli 2024. Meski demikian, inflasi total turun ke 2.5% yoy di Agustus 2024 dari 2.9% yoy. Angka ini tercatat sebagai yang terendah sejak Februari 2021. Pelaku pasar di Eropa juga terindikasi wait and see jelang pengumuman kebijakan moneter terbaru oleh European Central Bank (ECB) pada hari ini (12/9). Harga brent menguat 2.05%, sementara harga crude menguat 2.37% di Rabu (11/9). Rebound dipicu oleh kekhawatiran gangguan produksi minyak di Teluk Mexico karena Huricane Francine. IHSG diperkirakan lanjutkan konsolidasi dalam rentang 7700-7800 di Kamis (12/9). BI diyakini masih tetap dengan arah kebijakan sebelumnya, yaitu menahan sukubunga acuan dalam RDG bulan September 2024. Top picks (12/9) : ERAA, ESSA, BRPT, TLKM dan EXCL. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

12 September 2024

Nasdaq (+0.84%) dan S&P 500 (+0.45%) menguat di Selasa (10/9). CME FedWatch Tools mencatat 69% peluang pemangkasan 25 bps dan 31% peluang pemangkasan 31% dalam FOMC 17-18 September 2024. Indeks-indeks di Eropa tertekan oleh sektor automotive yang melemah 3.8% (10/9). U.S. Presidential Debate pertama antara Kamala Harris dan Donald Trump dijadwalkan pada Rabu (11/9) waktu setempat. U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield lanjutkan tren penurunan hingga berada di kisaran 3.65% di Selasa (10/9). OPEC+ memangkas outlook permintaan minyak sebesar 80,000 barel/hari di 2024. Harga brent melemah 3.69%, sementara harga crude melemah 4.3% (10/9). IHSG catat all-time high baru di level 7,761.388 (+0.761%) di Selasa (10/9). IHSG berpotensi uji resistance pada level 7800 pada Rabu (11/9). Top picks (11/9) : ACES, BBRI, BBTN, TOWR, SMRA, dan BFIN. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

11 September 2024

10 September 2024