BNGA booked net profit growth of 7.4% YoY to IDR1.8 trillion in 3M25. This was driven by an increase in Interest Income of 6.7% YoY to IDR6.2 trillion and a decrease in provision expenses of 35.5% YoY to IDR316 billion in the same period. Along with this achievement, BNGA increased the dividend payout ratio to 60% from the 2024 financial year, higher than the average DPR for the last 3 years of 47%. BNGA Loan grew 8.7% YoY, with gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) down 185 bps YoY in 3M25. This growth was supported by corporate loans, which rose 13.7% YoY to Rp91.73 trillion with a contribution of 40% to total loans. CASA ratio increased to 66% in 3M25, in line with BNGA's focus on gaining bigger low Cost of Fund (COF) with digitalization through OCTO mobile. BNGA aims to optimize consumer loans through mortgage loan optimization and OCTO mobile. For the consumer segment, BNGA will optimize mortgage loans by focusing on secondary cities without ignoring big cities (with low Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital). Therefore, we maintain the Buy rating for BNGA with the same projection and fair value as in the previous BNGA company update, namely 2040, with a potential upside of 15.25%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

U.S. JOLTs Job Opening turun sebanyak 288 ribu menjadi 7.192 juta di Maret 2025, terendah dalam enam bulan dan jauh di bawah ekspektasi pasar sebesar 7.48 juta. Penurunan terbesar terjadi di sektor transportasi, pergudangan, utilitas, akomodasi, layanan makanan, konstruksi, pemerintahan federal, real estate, serta kesehatan dan bantuan sosial, sementara sektor keuangan, asuransi, layanan lain, pendidikan lokal, perdagangan grosir, dan manufaktur mengalami peningkatan. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ke Indonesia di luar sektor keuangan serta minyak dan gas pada 1Q25 tumbuh12.7% YoY menjadi Rp230.4 triliun, namun pertumbuhan ini melambat dari 33.3% YoY di 4Q24.

Indeks-indeks Wall Street lanjutkan bullish trend di Selasa (29/4). U.S. Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick menyampaikan petunjuk potensi tercapainya trade deals dengan sejumlah negara (29/4). U.S. PCE Price Index Maret 2025 (30/4) diperkirakan melandai ke level 2.2% YoY dari 2.5% YoY di Februari 2025, membuka peluang pemangkasan lebih awal the Fed Rate. China Caixin Manufacturing PMI April 2025 (30/4) diperkirakan turun ke 50.2 dari 51.2 di Maret 2025, mengindikasikan dampak negatif dari trade wars, sehingga membuka peluang negosiasi dagang Tiongkok dengan AS. Harga emas alami pullback 0.8% ke US$3,316/troy oz di Selasa (29/4). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun ke 4.17% di Selasa (29/4). IHSG juga kembali membentuk doji star untuk kedua kalinya di Selasa (29/4). Peluang 50-50 bagi IHSG untuk uji 6770 di Rabu (30/4). Sebaliknya, indikasi minor bullish reversal valid, jika IHSG mengalami pullback signifikan ke kisaran 6700 di Rabu (30/4). Top picks (30/4) : PGAS, AMRT, SIDO, ERAA, dan TLKM. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

30 April 2025

BBNI’s net profit grew 1% YoY (4.4% QoQ) to IDR 5.4 trillion in 3M25. BBNI’s net interest income rose 4.7% YoY but declined 10.9% QoQ in 3M25. The increase in interest expenses, which outpaced interest income, pressured BBNI’s interest margin (interest income +5.3% YoY vs. interest expense +6.2% YoY in 3M25). Moderation of Term Deposits (TD) rate and growth of the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) can potentially optimize BBNI's performance in FY25F. BBNI’s TD rates have continued to rise in line with increases in the benchmark interest rate. BBNI’s TD rates for 2022–2024 were (3.32%, 4.65%, and 4.82%).Thus, we believe that with a decline in the BI rate, BBNI’s TD rate could also moderate by around ±1% in 2025F With BBNI's 3M35 performance slightly below our expectations, we lower our FY25F projection. However, we maintain our BUY rating for BBNI with a lower estimated fair value of 5.325 (8.29x expected P/E) and a potential upside of 27.09%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119055611 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index turun tajam sebesar 19.5 poin menjadi -35.8 di April 2025, mencapai level terendah sejak Mei 2020 dan menandakan kondisi sektor yang semakin memburuk. Indeks produksi turun 0.9 poin menjadi 5.1, sementara indeks pesanan baru turun 19.9 poin ke -20.0, dan indeks pengiriman turun 11.6 poin ke -5.5. The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) Trades di Inggris naik ke -8 di April 2025, level tertinggi dalam enam bulan terakhir dari -41 di Maret 2025, melampaui ekspektasi pasar -20. Namun, proyeksi untuk Mei turun tajam ke -33, terendah dalam lebih dari setahun, mencerminkan kekhawatiran pelaku usaha terhadap lemahnya sentimen konsumen dan ketidakpastian ekonomi global.

Indeks-indeks Wall Street bergerak terbatas di Senin (28/4) menantikan rilis kinerja keuangan perusahaan-perusahaan teknologi. FactSet melaporkan 73% perusahaan AS yang telah melaporkan kinerja keuangan 1Q25 mencatatkan kinerja di atas ekspektasi. Menteri Keuangan AS, Scott Bessent memberikan petunjuk bahwa kesepakatan dengan India kemungkinan menjadi yang pertama. Menteri Keuangan Tiongkok, Lan Fo’an menyatakan akan mengimplementasikan kebijakan yang lebih proaktif untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pernyataan tersebut membangun spekulasi peluang negosiasi dengan AS. Dari dalam negeri, pasar mengantisipasi rilis data Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 1Q25. FDI Indonesia tercatat tumbuh hingga 33% yoy di 4Q24. IHSG berpeluang coba tutup gap di 6770-6870 pada pekan ini. Salah satu faktor yang mendasari kekhawatiran bahwa penguatan ini tidak sustainable adalah investor asing yang masih cenderung lanjutkan net sell (28/4). Top picks (29/4) : MAIN, JPFA, PSAB, BBRI dan INDY. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

29 April 2025

BBTN booked an interest income of IDR8.2 trillion, growing by 7% YoY in 3M25. Interest Expense decreased 0.3% YoY to IDR4.4 trillion, with Operating Profit Before Provision (PPOP) of IDR2.13 trillion (+17.3% YoY) in 3M25. BBTN Loan grew 5.5% YoY to IDR363 trillion in 3M25. Mortgage growth, which rose 7.8% YoY in 3M25, supported this growth. Where housing loans still dominate BBTN's loan distribution (79% in 3M25). Regarding asset quality, Loan at Risk (LAR) fell 127 bps YoY to 20.3% in 3M25, although there was an increase in gross NonPerforming Loans (NPL). Current Account Saving Account (CASA) ratio grew 120 bps YoY in 3M25. BBTN booked total Third Party Funds of IDR385 trillion (+7.5% YoY) in 3M25. Meanwhile, BBTN's CASA was booked at IDR197 trillion (+10.1% YoY) and deposits at IDR188 trillion (+5% YoY). The significant growth in CASA is an effort to reduce the negative impact of high interest rate conditions on the Cost of funds (CoF). BBTN 3M25 performance aligns with our FY25F estimate in the previous Company Update. So, we maintain our Buy rating for BBTN with a fair value of 1,250. Thus, the potential upside becomes 20.77%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final di AS naik menjadi 52.2 di April 2025 dari 50.8 pada estimasi awal. Hal ini terjadi karena ketidakpastian kebijakan tarif perdagangan membuat ekspektasi inflasi secara tahunan naik ke 6.5% YoY tertinggi sejak tahun 1981. Penjualan ritel di Inggris naik 0.4% MoM di Maret 2025, berlawanan dengan perkiraan pasar yang turun 0.4% MoM, ditopang oleh pertumbuhan kuat di toko non-makanan yang mencapai 1.7% MoM tertinggi sejak Maret 2022 khususnya di toko pakaian yang naik 3.7% MoM berkat musim hangat.