TLKM reported 1Q25 revenue of IDR 36.64 trillion (-2.9% QoQ; -2.1% YoY), in line with expectations (Phintas: 23.72%, Cons: 23.60%). The decline was driven by weaker performance in Data, Internet & IT Services, which contracted -5.42% YoY. However, the IndiHome segment grew by +0.41% QoQ (+3.45% YoY) to IDR 6.66 trillion. Operationally, administrative expenses rose by 18.83% YoY due to seasonal effects, while marketing expenses decreased by -40.90% QoQ, reflecting cost efficiency. TLKM recorded an EBITDA of IDR 18.23 trillion (-0.92% QoQ; -6.12% YoY) with a margin of 49.76%, and net profit reached IDR 5.81 trillion (-2.75% QoQ; -4.01% YoY). Telkomsel’s deliberate churn elimination led to a 0.9% YoY decline in subscribers to 158.8 million, though postpaid subscribers increased by 6.2% YoY. ARPU declined to IDR 42.4k, but data consumption grew 5.3% QoQ (+19.78% YoY). IndiHome added 230K new net subscribers, with convergence penetration at 55%. BTS units increased to 278K, including 1,910 5G BTS (+169.1% YoY). Commitment to improving market conditions through starter pack price adjustments is expected to restore market rationality and drive long-term profitability. While this strategy should gradually boost ARPU, it may result in a slight decline in subscriber numbers. As a result, we forecast modest revenue growth of 1.68% YoY for FY25E and 2.46% YoY for FY26F. Despite the flat revenue growth, we expect TLKM’s EBITDA margin to improve, reaching 49.87% in FY25E and 50.37% in FY26F. The company's ability to sustain profitability amid a challenging environment underscores its operational efficiency. With a combination of steady revenue and high interest expenses, we estimate TLKM’s net profit at IDR 22.41 trillion for FY25E, with a net profit margin of 14.69%, highlighting the company’s resilience and capacity for stable financial performance. We maintain a BUY rating with a new target price of IDR 2,950, implying a forward EV/EBITDA of 4.55×/4.33× for FY25F/FY26F. TLKM’s stock trades at a 22.7% discount to the 5-year average, supported by a buyback plan and dividends. Downside risks include ARPU pressure, competition, and weakened purchasing power. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research –Disclaimer On– Contact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuan pada kisaran 4.25%-4.50% di Mei 2025 untuk ketiga kalinya dalam FOMC, sesuai ekspektasi pasar. Hal ini terjadi di tengah kekhawatiran bahwa tarif baru Presiden Trump dapat mendorong inflasi dan memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ketua Fed, Jerome Powell menegaskan bahwa bank sentral akan bersikap sabar dan menunggu data terbaru sebelum mengambil langkah penyesuaian, mengingat risiko inflasi dan pengangguran yang meningkat. Penjualan ritel di kawasan Euro turun 0.10 MoM di Maret 2025, setelah sebelumnya naik 0.20% MoM di Februari 2025 dan di bawah ekspektasi pasar yang memperkirakan pertumbuhan stagnan. Penurunan ini terjadi pada penjualan produk non-makanan dan makanan, minuman, serta tembakau yang masing-masing turun 0.10% MoM, sementara penjualan bahan bakar justru naik 0.40% MoM.

8 May 2025

Indeks-indeks Wall Street catat rebound di Rabu (7/5). Delegasi AS dan Tiongkok dijadwalkan mengadakan pertemuan di Swiss pada Sabtu (10/5) dan Minggu (11/5). Hasil positif dari pertemuan tersebut diharapkan mampu meredam kekhawatiran risiko ekonomi (lonjakan inflasi, kenaikan angka pengangguran dan perlambatan ekonomi) yang disampaikan the Fed pasca pengumuman hasil FOMC (7/5). The Fed menahan sukubunga acuan di level 4.5%. Tiongkok menurunkan suku bunga reverse repo tujuh hari menjadi 1.4% dari 1.5% di Mei 2025, serta menurunkan rasio cadangan perbankan sebesar 50 basis poin menjadi 6.2% di Mei. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield cenderung sideways di level 4.269% (-0.006%). Harga emas kembali alami pullback (-1.1%) pasca uji resistance level US$3,400/troy oz di Rabu (7/5). IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada rentang 6850-6970 pada perdagangan Kamis (8/5). Top picks (8/5) : SMRA, CTRA, PWON, ACES, TOWR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K.

JPFA booked revenue growth of 2.9% YoY to IDR14.33 trillion in 1Q25. This growth was driven by higher sales from almost all segments, except for the commercial farm and animal feeds segments, which decreased by 2.89% YoY and 3.38% YoY, respectively, in 1Q25. All of JPFA's business segments booked operating profit in 1Q25. In terms of growth, the trading and others segment booked the highest operating profit growth of 135% YoY to IDR146 billion, followed by the aquaculture segment, which increased by 68.55% YoY to IDR110 billion, and the poultry processing and consumer products segment, which increased by 60% YoY to IDR98 billion in 1Q25. The commercial farm segment booked a 14.84% YoY decrease in operating profit to IDR255 billion, the animal feed segment decreased by 14.78% YoY to IDR631 billion, and the poultry breeding segment decreased by 13.56% YoY to IDR202 billion in 1Q25. This condition resulted in JPFA's total segment operating profit decreased by 1.39% YoY to IDR1.44 trillion in 1Q25 (vs. IDR1.46 trillion in 1Q24). JPFA's net profit grew 5.4% YoY to IDR754 billion, driven by non-operational efficiency, especially a decrease in finance expense as interest expense on short-term bank debt decreased to IDR24 billion in 1Q25. We maintain our Buy rating for JPFA with the same projection and fair value as JPFA's previous company update at IDR2,400/share.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.2 in April 2025, unchanged from the previous month. It indicates only marginal expansion, as output declined for the second consecutive month despite a fourth month of growth in new orders, mainly driven by domestic demand. However, export orders have fallen sharply since November due to tariff-related pressures and expectations of retaliatory tariffs, significantly reducing export sales. As a result, business confidence dropped to its lowest level since June 2024. Additionally, both input costs and output prices surged, mainly due to tariffs, prompting firms to raise selling prices and reduce headcount to protect profit margins.

Defisit perdagangan AS melebar menjadi US$140.5 miliar di Maret 2025, mencapai rekor tertinggi dibandingkan perkiraan pasar yaitu defisit US$137 miliar. Impor naik 4.4% ke rekor tertinggi US$419 miliar, terutama untuk produk farmasi, mobil penumpang, dan aksesori komputer, sementara ekspor naik tipis 0.2% menjadi US$278.5 miliar dengan peningkatan pada mobil penumpang dan gas alam. Kanada mencatat defisit perdagangan naik menjadi C$0.51 miliar di Maret 2025 dari defisit C$1.41 miliar pada Februari 2025, seiring impor turun 1.5% menjadi C$70.4 miliar akibat tarif timbal balik dan boikot produk AS. Impor dari AS menurun 2.9% setelah Kanada mengenakan tarif 25% pada barang AS, sementara ekspor turun tipis 0.2% menjadi C$69.9 miliar.

7 May 2025

Pullback indeks-indeks Wall Street berlanjut di Selasa (6/5). Pelemahan ini disebabkan oleh ketidakpastian mengenai kesepakatan dagang antara AS dengan trading partners. Pasalnya, sepekan sejak pernyataan Trump dan Bessent, belum ada pengumuman resmi terkait trade deals dan petunjuk akan hal tersebut. Friedrich Merz terpilih sebagai Kanselir Jerman melalui kemenangan tipis di Parlemen. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun ke 4.298% di Senin (5/5). Harga emas menguat 2.7% ke US$3,422.4/troy oz di Selasa (6/5). Pelaku pasar mengantisipasi perubahan tone oleh the Fed terkait arah kebijakan moneter kedepan. BI dijadwalkan merilis posisi cadangan devisa per akhir April 2025 di Rabu (6/5). IHSG menutup gap ke 6870 sekaligus catat resistance breakout di 6875. IHSG diperkirakan bergerak dalam rentang 6850-6950 di Rabu (6/5). Top picks (7/5) : INCO, HRUM, TINS, MDKA, dan DOID. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

INDF booked revenue growth of 2.5% YoY to IDR31.55 trillion in 1Q25. This growth was driven by a 28.67% YoY increase in agribusiness segment sales to IDR4.79 trillion in 1Q25, in line with the 15.3% YoY increase in average Crude Palm Oil (CPO) price to MYR4,675/ton in 1Q25. Sales of the consumer-branded products segment also increased by 2.11% YoY to IDR19.97 trillion, and the distribution segment rose 1.48% YoY to IDR2 trillion in 1Q25. Meanwhile, the bogasari segment sales decreased by 4.63% YoY to IDR7.95 trillion in 1Q25. INDF's operating expenses decreased by 3.28% YoY to IDR3.86 trillion in 1Q25. This decrease was mainly due to a 10.21% YoY decrease in general and administrative expenses to IDR1.28 trillion in 1Q25 and an 87.22% YoY increase in other operating income to IDR1 trillion in 1Q25 resulting from the net gains on foreign exchange difference from operating and other activities. INDF's net profit increased by 10.5% YoY to IDR3.91 trillion in 1Q25. The increase in net profit was in line with solid operating profit in 1Q25 amid low single-digit revenue growth in 1Q25. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating for INDF with the same projection and fair value in the previous INDF company update at IDR9,000 per share or a potential upside of 18.42%.