Indonesia's economic growth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was recorded at 4.87% year-on-year (YoY) in 1Q25, down from 5.02% YoY in 4Q25 and below the market consensus of 4.91% YoY. The nominal GDP in 1Q25 stood at IDR 5,665.9 trillion, while the GDP at constant prices was IDR 3,264.5 trillion. All expenditure components posted growth except for government spending, which contracted by 1.38% YoY due to budget efficiency policies at the central government level. The most significant contributor to GDP was household consumption, accounting for 54.53% of total GDP and growing by 4.89% YoY. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), which represents investment in capital goods with a useful life of more than one year and is not for immediate consumption, contributed 30.34% to total GDP and grew by 2.12% YoY

Indonesia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded an annual inflation rate of 1.95% year-over-year (YoY) in April 2025, up from 1.03% YoY in March 2025. This realization exceeded the consensus estimate of 1.50% YoY. Core inflation increased slightly to 2.50% YoY in April from 2.48% YoY in March. Key contributors to core inflation included gold jewelry and automobiles. Meanwhile, the volatile food group saw inflation of 0.64% YoY in April, mainly driven by higher prices for bird’s eye chili, red chili, shallots, garlic, and coconut. The administered prices group posted a 1.25% YoY inflation rate, mainly from tap water tariffs, machine-made kretek cigarettes, and hand-rolled kretek cigarettes

ICBP booked limited revenue growth (+1.32% YoY) to IDR20.18 trillion in 1Q25. This growth was driven by higher sales in almost all segments, except for the beverage segment, which decreased by 12.69% YoY to IDR372 billion, and the dairy segment, which decreased by 1.64% YoY to IDR2.72 trillion in 1Q25. ICBP's operating expenses decreased by 20.37% YoY to IDR2.1 trillion in 1Q25. This resulted in ICBP's operating profit growth of 4.76% YoY to Rp5.15 trillion in 1Q25, and the Operating Profit Margin increased by 80 bps to 25.5% in 1Q25. ICBP's net profit increased by 11.4% YoY to Rp3.03 trillion in 1Q25. Besides being driven by solid operating profit, the increase in ICBP's net profit was also driven by a 1.44% YoY decrease in financial expenses to IDR1.67 trillion and earning net income from associates and joint ventures of IDR75 billion in 1Q25. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating for ICBP with the same projection and fair value in the previous ICBP company update at IDR13,275 per share or a potential upside of 20.68%.

AMRT booked revenue growth of 11.75% YoY to IDR32.77 trillion in 1Q25. This growth was driven by a 13.69% YoY increase in non-food segment sales to IDR9.09 trillion and an 11.03% YoY increase in food segment sales to IDR23.67 trillion in 1Q25. AMRT's operating expenses increased by 12.83% YoY to IDR5.43 trillion in 1Q25. This increase was mainly due to a 16.89% YoY increase in general and administrative expenses to IDR522 billion and an 11.74% YoY increase in selling and distribution expenses to IDR5.18 trillion in 1Q25. However, AMRT's operating profit still grew 9.7% YoY to IDR1.26 trillion in 1Q25. AMRT's net profit increased by 9.42% YoY to IDR1 trillion in 1Q25. The increase in net profit was driven by solid revenue amidst operating expenses pressure in 1Q25. In addition, AMRT's net profit in 1Q25 was also driven by a 37.59% YoY increase in finance income to IDR41 billion in 1Q25 from bank interest and deposit interest. We maintain our Buy rating for AMRT with the same projection and fair value in the previous AMRT company update at IDR2,570 per share. This is in line with AMRT's revenue growth, which is in line with our FY25F estimate. Therefore, net profit has the potential to be solid in FY25.

BDMN's interest income grew 4% YoY to IDR5.7 trillion in 3M25. On the other hand, there was a higher increase in Interest expense (+17.6% YoY) to IDR1.89 trillion. BDMN's disbursed loans grew 7% YoY to IDR192.7 trillion in 3M25. The wholesale segment contributed the most, reaching IDR116.4 trillion or 60% of total loans. Gross NPL fell 30 bps YoY to 1.9% in 3M25, the lowest compared to peers, showing a downward trend since 2020. In addition, Loan at Risk (LaR) also booked a decline of 160 bps YoY to 10.4% in 3M25. Interest Income is estimated to grow 6% YoY to IDR15.6 trillion in FY25F. Management targets BDMN's loan growth in 2025 of 9%-11%. BDMN focuses on specific ecosystems, namely the Automotive, Hajj, and Education ecosystems. Thus, we maintain our Buy rating for BDMN with the same projection and fair value as in the previous BDMN company update, which is 2810 with an upside potential of 16.12%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Moderate loan growth to improve asset quality. BBRI loan grew 5% YoY to IDR1,309 trillion in 3M25. This growth was supported by corporate loans (+13% YoY) and consumer loans (+9%YoY), contributing 18% and 15% to BBRI's total revenue, respectively. For FY25F, BBRI targets credit growth of 7%-9%; this moderate target aligns with BBRI's efforts to maintain asset quality. For information, BBRI's gross NPL fell 10 bps YoY to 3% in 3M25, relatively in line with the management guideline in 2025F (<3%). BBRI Interest Income +2.5% QoQ (-1.5% YoY) to IDR50.6 trillion in 3M25. With net interest income +4.1% QoQ (-1.7% YoY) to IDR36.4 trillion in 3M25, there was a decrease in interest expense by 1% YoY to IDR14.1 trillion in 3M25. In terms of margin, BBRI's Net Interest Margin (NIM) was 7.68% (+20 bps YoY) in 3M25, in line with the management guideline of (7.3%-7.7%) for 2025. Based on BBRI's 3M25 performance, we maintain our BUY rating for BBRI with a fair value of 5,325, the same as in the previous BBRI Company Update, with a potential upside of 37.24%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BRIS booked solid performance, net profit growth of 10.05% YoY to IDR1.9 trillion in 3M25. With this growth, BRIS continues the double digit annual profit growth trend in the last three years (2022: 41%, 2023: 34%, and 2024: 23%). In terms of financing, BRIS booked a growth of 16.21% YoY to IDR287 trillion, mainly driven by consumer financing (+16.08% YoY), contributing 55% to total financing. The gold business is a booster for BRIS' performance.BRIS' gold business booked significant growth of +82% YoY to IDR14 trillion in 3M25, contributing 5% of total revenue in 3M25 vs. (FY21: 2%). Gold business provides high returns for BRIS with controlled costs (Yield 13.29% vs. CoC 0.02%). In the future, with the Bullion Bank permit obtained by BRIS, it can further increase the contribution of the gold business to BRIS's revenue. With BRIS' performance in line with our expectations, we maintain our Buy rating for BRIS with the same projection and fair value as in the previous BRIS company update, which is 3580 with an upside potential of 25.61%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BMRI's net profit in FY24 grew 3.9% YoY to IDR13.2 trillion in 3M25. This growth is in line with Interest Income, which rose 11.5% YoY, although Interest Expense increased higher (24.4% YoY) in 3M25. Wholesale Business was able to maintain BMRI's loan growth. BMRI booked a loan growth of 16.5% YoY to Rp1.672 trillion in 3M25, with the most significant contribution from corporate loans and commercial loans, which grew 37.8% and 23.5%, respectively, to total revenue. Regarding liquidity, the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) was booked higher, at 92.5%, compared to 88.2% in 3M25. However, this LDR is still within BI's safe limits (78%-92%). We estimate BMRI's Interest Income can grow 7% YoY in FY25F. Several factors, such as improving domestic consumption, the realization of private and government investment, and downstream, have the potential to support BMRI's loan growth. Therefore, we maintain the Buy rating for BMRI with the same projection and fair value in the previous BMRI company update, which is 6325. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

U.S. NonFarm Payrolls melambat menjadi 177 ribu di April 2025 dari 185 ribu di Maret 2025 namun jauh melampaui ekspektasi pasar sebesar 130 ribu, dengan pertumbuhan pekerjaan utama terjadi di sektor kesehatan (+51 ribu), transportasi dan pergudangan (+29 ribu). Selain itu tingkat pengangguran tetap stabil sebesar 4.25% di April 2025 dengan jumlah pengangguran naik 82 ribu menjadi 7.16 juta orang. Indeks PMI Manufaktur Indonesia turun tajam menjadi 46.7 dari 52.4 di Maret 2025, menandai penurunan aktivitas pabrik pertama dalam enam bulan dan penurunan terdalam sejak Agustus 2021, dengan output turun paling besar dalam hampir empat tahun dan pesanan baru menyusut setelah empat bulan bertumbuh sejak November 2024. Di sisi lain, inflasi harga konsumen Indonesia meningkat 1.95% YoY di Maret 2025, tertinggi sejak Agustus 2024, didorong oleh peningkatan pengeluaran selama Idul Fitri, namun tetap dalam rentang target BI sebesar 2.5±1%.

5 May 2025