Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat lebih dari 1% di hari Pemilu (5/11). Pelaksanaan Pemilu AS yang relatif kondusif mendorong penguatan tersebut. Hasil perhitungan suara awal beberapa negara bagian diperkirakan mulai tersedia pada pukul 7.00 WIB di Rabu (6/11). CME FedWatch Tools masih mempertahankan peluang 97.5% (5/11) untuk pemangkasan 25 bps pada FOMC 9 November 2024. Dari data ekonomi, pasar akan mencerna data indeks sektor jasa Jepang, Jerman dan Euro Area yang dijadwalkan rilis pada hari ini (6/11). Penguatan IHSG di Selasa (5/11) terjadi ketika realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi melambat ke 4.95% yoy di 3Q24 dari 5.05% yoy di 2Q24. Pasar nampaknya, meyakini kondisi tersebut menjadi katalis bagi BI untuk mengikuti agresivitas the Fed dalam memangkas sukubunga acuan. Pasar juga mungkin berharap terhadap potensi stimulus-stimulus fiskal dari pemerintahan baru. IHSG berpeluang uji resistance 7500 di Rabu (6/11). Top picks (6/11) : INCO, AKRA, TINS, ANTM, dan MYOR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

6 November 2024

Mayoritas indeks Wall Street melemah pada perdagangan Senin (4/11) jelang Pemilu AS di 5 November 2024. Sejumlah jajak pendapat menunjukan keunggulan tipis Calon Presiden dari Partai Demokrat, Kamala Harris beberapa hari menjelang Pemilu. Pasar mengkhawatirkan potensi deadlock parliament, yaitu kondisi di parlemen yang relatif sama kuat antara Partai Demokrat dengan Partai Republik. CME FedWatch Tools mencatat peluang 98% pemangkasan 25 bps dalam FOMC 9 November 2024. OPEC+ memutuskan memperpanjang pemangkasan volume produksi sebesar 2.2 juta barel/hari sampai dengan Desember 2024. Harga brent menguat 2.71% ke US$75.08/barel, sementara harga crude menguat 2.85% ke US$71.47/barel di Senin (4/11). Pasar menantikan data pertumbuhan ekonomi 3Q24 Indonesia yang diyakini masih bertahan di atas 5% yoy (5/11). IHSG diperkirakan kembali fluktuatif di kisaran 7450-7500 di Selasa (5/11). Top picks (5/11) : BBNI, BBRI, ICBP, AMRT, INDF, dan ANTM. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

5 November 2024

BMRI's net profit of 9M24 grew 7.6% yoy to 78% of our FY24 estimate. BMRI recorded a net profit of IDR42 trillion (+7.6% yoy) in 9M24. Wholesale Business remains the highest compared to peers. BMRI recorded a total credit of IDR1.6 trillion, increasing by 20.8% yoy in 9M24. Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew by 15% in 9M24. BMRI recorded CASA of IDR1.2 trillion (+15% yoy) in 9M24, with a CASA ratio of 73.8% (+12 bps) yoy. Non-Performing Loans (NPL) fell 36 bps yoy to 1.13 in 9M24. This achievement also continues the downward trend in NPL in the last three years (NPL of (2.72 in FY21, 1.92 in FY22, and 1.19 in FY23). BMRI's credit growth is targeted at 16%-18% in FY24F.Several factors, such as improving domestic consumption, the realization of private and government investment, a continuation of National Strategic Projects. BMRI's strong position in the wholesale segment allows BMRI to optimize these positive catalysts. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.52% and Terminal Growth of 3.39%, we estimate BMRI's fair value at 7,900 (12.37x expected P/E). Therefore, we still give BMRI a buy rating with a potential upside of 18.77%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BRIS net profit grew 21.6% yoy to IDR5.1 trillion in 9M24. Net Margin Income of IDR12.6 trillion grew 3.5% yoy in 9M24. BRIS recorded financing growth of 8.09% yoy to IDR318.5 trillion in 9M24. Consumer financing growth (+16.27% yoy) supported this growth, which contributed 54.57% to BRIS total 9M24 financing. Tier 1 ROE increased significantly (+740 bps yoy) in 9M24. BRIS recorded an ROE of 17.59% in 9M24, higher than 16.85% in 9M23 and 16.88% in FY23. The gold business could be a booster for BRIS' performance. BRIS focuses on increasing its gold business in 2024.BRIS' gold business was able to record significant growth of +60.53% yoy to IDR 15.7 trillion in 9M24 with a contribution of 4.07% of total revenue. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.85% and Terminal Growth of 7.83%, we estimate the fair value of BRIS at 3,300 (23.69x expected P/E). Considering BRIS's fair price and relative valuation of around 2.4x 5-year Mean P/B, we give a buy rating for BRIS with a potential upside of 11.89%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks Wall Street berbalik menguat di Jumat (1/11). Realisasi penyerapan tenaga kerja baru di AS sebesar 12,000 di Oktober 2024, jauh lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar di 100,000. Data ini dinilai memvalidasi peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed dalam FOMC November 2024 (9/11). Hasil major review oleh MSCI pada 7 November 2024 juga kemungkinan memicu fluktuasi IHSG. Pasar cenderung berhati-hati jelang Pemilu AS di 5 November 2024 dan pengumuman FOMC the Fed pada 9 November 2024. IHSG berpotensi rebound di awal pekan (4/11), namun IHSG diperkirakan kembali fluktuatif di sisa pekan ini tergantung pada sentimen-sentimen dari major events di atas. Top picks : BBCA, ESSA, BMRI, PTPP, BFIN dan BRIS. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

4 November 2024

ISAT’s 3Q24 revenue reached IDR 13.84 trillion, marking an 8.20% YoY increase but a slight 2.16% decrease from the previous quarter. The cumulative 9M24 revenue of IDR 41.82 trillion represents an 11.61% YoY increase, covering 78% of the full-year forecast. Net profit grew by 40.50% YoY in 3Q24 but saw a 22.23% quarterly decline The Multimedia, Data Communication, and Internet (MIDI) segment grew significantly, with a 31.91% YoY increase. However, Cellular segment revenue, while up by 5.80% YoY, experienced a 2.60% QoQ decline. ISAT’s 3Q24 EBITDA stood at IDR 6.59 trillion (up 8.29% YoY), with a marginal decline in EBITDA margin to 47.62% ISAT added 3,000 BTS towers in 2024, improving reach to 2.1 million people and extending services to 370 new villages. Enhanced distribution with 2,000 rural distribution points and 2,500 new service points, along with the launch of the Digital Intelligence Operations Center (DIOC) for real-time network monitoring A stronger performance is expected in 4Q24, driven by anticipated data demand during the Pilkada, Christmas, and New Year seasons. An upcoming frequency auction could further enhance network capacity if ISAT secures additional frequencies The company retains a "BUY" rating with a target price of IDR 3,000, anticipating an 18.80% upside. Potential risks include price competition, regulatory shifts, and high-interest rates. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Net profit grew 52.72% yoy to IDR2.7 trillion in 9M24. This growth is in line with the increase in revenue of 37.75% yoy to IDR10.1 trillion in 9M24. BSD City is designated as a National Strategic Project (PSN). This project is carried out in approximately 59.6 hectares, focusing on developing the education, biomedical, and digital regions, with an estimated investment value of Rp18.55 trillion. BSDE marketing sales achieved 72% of the 2024F marketing sales target. BSDE posted marketing sales of IDR6.84 trillion (+1% yoy) in 9M24. Net profit is projected to return above IDR2.9 trillion in FY24F. During the election period in 3M24, BSDE was able to record growth in marketing sales (+3% yoy) and revenue (+31% yoy). Net profit is projected to return above IDR 2.9 trillion in FY24F. Using discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate BSDE's fair value to be 1425 (8.64x expected P/E FY24F and 67% discount to NAV). Considering BSDE's fair price, we give BSDE a buy rating with a potential upside of 16.82%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -