31 Oktober 2024

Indeks-indeks utama Wall Street melemah di Rabu (30/10). ADP Nonfarm Employment Change mencapai 233 ribu di Oktober 2024, jauh lebih tinggi dari perkiraan di 110 ribu. Kondisi ini meningkatkan keraguan terhadap peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan pada FOMC pekan depan (9/11). Meski demikian, CME FedWatch Tools mencatat peluang pemangkasan 25 bps masih bertahan di atas 95% pada FOMC tersebut (30/10). Harga minyak catatkan rebound sekitar 2% di Rabu (30/10) dipicu rencana OPEC+ untuk menunda kenaikan volume produksi dari Desember 2024 ke Januari 2025. IHSG diperkirakan menemui bottom level dari minor bearish reversal yang tengah berlangsung di level 7500 (1/11). Pasar masih mengantisipasi pengumuman hasil review MSCI pada 7 November 2024. Realisasi kinerja keuangan sejumlah perusahaan bluechip, khususnya bank yang relatif solid di 9M24 nampaknya belum mampu meredam aksi jual. Top picks (31/10) : MEDC, MDKA, MYOR, ASII, dan PSAB. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

PWON's revenue increased by 4.74% year over year to IDR4.79 trillion in 9M24. This revenue was primarily driven by space rental revenue, which contributed 31.35% of total revenue in 9M24. PWON's diverse property business portfolio minimizes performance fluctuations due to high interest rates. PWON continues to expand its products and actively acquires its landbank. PWON targets revenue growth in marketing sales and NLA in FY24. PWON projects a 34% increase in shopping center NLA in 2023-2029, PWON has set a 15% yoy growth for marketing sales to IDR1.5 trillion in FY24. Using discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate PWON's fair value to be 595 (11.52x expected P/E FY24F and 68% discount to NAV). Considering PWON's fair price, we give PWON a buy rating with a potential upside of 24.09%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BTPS's net profit fell 24% yoy to IDR771 billion in 9M24. This performance is the impact of BTPS being more conservative in distributing financing in 2024 to maintain BTPS's asset quality. BTPS continues to make efforts to improve asset quality. Net Non-Performing Financing (NPF) of 0.0% in 9M24 is lower than 0.7% in 9M23 and 0.3% in FY23. Consumer empowerment to increase consumer loyalty.The number of customers is 265.7 thousand communities, with the number of active customers being 3.87 million in 9M24 compared to 258 thousand communities in 9M23. BTPS focuses on developing new features for Tepat mobile banking.BTPS will facilitate the receipt of cash waqf and develop the Cash Waqf Linked Deposit feature (so that waqf funds can be invested in sharia financial instruments such as deposits). Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.10% and Terminal Growth of 2.08%, we estimate BTPS' fair value at 1,315 (12.52x expected P/E). Considering BTPS' fair price and relative valuation below 1.82x –1 standard deviation of 5-year P/B, we give BTPS a buy rating with a potential upside of 21.70%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks Wall Street berakhir mixed di Selasa (29/10). Nasdaq (+0.78%) ditopang antisipasi kinerja keuangan 3Q24 perusahaan teknologi. U.S. JOLTs Job Openings turun ke 7.443 juta di September 2024 dari 7.861 juta di Agustus 2024. U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change diperkirakan turun ke 101 ribu di Oktober 2024 dari 143 ribu di September 2024. Data-data di atas menunjukan sektor tenaga kerja di AS tidak sekuat yang diperkirakan, sehingga menjaga peluang pemangkasan sukubunga di FOMC pekan depan (9/11). Dari dalam negeri, fokus masih akan tertuju pada pekan puncak rilis kinerja keuangan 3Q24 pada pekan ini. Pasar masih hasil major review IDX80, LQ45 dan IDX30 yang akan efektif pada 1 November 2024 dan antisipasi major review oleh MSCI pada 7 November 2024. IHSG masih rawan lanjutkan pelemahan, uji level psikologis 7600 (30/10). Top picks (30/10) : ISAT, JSMR, SMRA, PWON dan DOID. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

30 Oktober 2024

Net profit grew 3.5% yoy to Rp16.31 trillion in 9M24. This increase was in line with the increase in Interest income by 7.3% yoy to Rp48.84 trillion. Total loans reached IDR735 trillion in 9M24, growing 9.5% yoy and 1.1% qoq. Corporate loans grew 15.1% yoy to IDR409.2 trillion, contributing 56% of total loans in 9M24. Declining trend of Loan at Risk (LAR). BBNI targets LAR in 2024F to reach below 10%. BBNI's LAR was recorded at 11.8% ytd, down 360 bps Realization of the performance of a new growth engine for BBNI.Hibank targets the portion of MSME credit in 2024F to reach 45% from the previous 19% in FY23. Wondr by BNI and BNI direct drive BBNI CASA growth. As of 9M24, Wondr has acquired 225 thousand new users, with around 70% of BNI's retail savings coming from Wondr. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 11.05% and Terminal Growth of 4.65%, we estimate BBNI's fair value at 6,350 (19.24x expected P/E). Therefore, we maintain a buy rating with a lower fair value and potential upside of 15.42%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat di Senin (28/10). Aksi balasan Israel yang tidak menargetkan fasilitas produksi minyak dan nuklir Iran pada akhir pekan lalu. Harga brent melemah 6.09% ke US$81.42/barel, sementara harga crude melemah 6.13% ke US$67.38/barel di Senin (28/10). Pekan ini merupakan “minggu tenang” sebelum Pemilihan Umum Presiden-Wakil Presiden AS pada 5 November 2024 dan FOMC the Fed pada 7 November 2024. Diantara tanggal-tanggal penting di atas, MSCI dijadwalkan mengumumkan hasil major review pada 6 November 2024. Pasar di Eropa akan merespon pidato dari ECB Vice President, Luis de Guindos yang masih berlangsung hingga saat laporan ini disusun. IHSG memvalidasi pola minor bearish reversal apabila breaklow 7630 di Selasa (29/10). Pasar nampaknya masih menakar potensi dampak keputusan pailit salah satu emiten besar di Bursa Efek Indonesia terhadap kinerja emiten bank. Top picks (29/10) : ARTO, ADMR, INKP, TINS dan ERAA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

29 Oktober 2024

BBCA's net profit grew 12.8% yoy to IDR41.1 trillion in 9M24 (IDR54.8 trillion Annualized or 75% of our 2024F). Resilience of loan growth in the last five years. BBCA recorded credit growth of 14.5% yoy in 9M24. BBCA's credit quality remains healthy amid macroeconomic fluctuations. Lowest Cost of Fund (COF) compared to peers amidst high interest rates. Despite high interest rates, BBCA's cost of funds has remained stable in the last 5 years. Strong customer relationships are BBCA's competitive advantage. Customers increased by 5% yoy to 32.6 million in 9M24, with transaction volume reaching 26billion (+21%yoy) in 6M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 6.81% and Terminal Growth of 8.09%, we estimate BCA's fair value at 11,600 (26.14x expected P/E). Therefore, we maintain a hold rating for BBCA with a higher target and potential upside of 8.92%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -