FX Reserves: US$156.1 billion | 0.24% MoM |7.62% YoY Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.24% MoM to US$156.1 billion in January 2025 from US$155.7 billion in December 2024. This increase was influenced by several factors, including the government's global bond issuance, tax and service revenue realization, and Rupiah exchange rate stabilization policies implemented amid continued uncertainty in international financial markets. Furthermore, the current level of foreign exchange reserves remains high, equivalent to 6.7 months of imports or 6.5 months of government external debt payments. It is above the international adequacy standard of 3 months of imports. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

S&P Global PMI Manufacturing Index: 51.2 S&P Global PMI Services Index: 52.9 ISM PMI Manufacturing Index: 50.9 ISM PMI Services Index: 52.8 The US manufacturing sector expanded in early 2025, driven by confidence in the Trump administration’s protectionist policies, including tax cuts and import tariffs. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 50.9, marking the first expansion after 26 months of contraction, with increased demand, production, and employment. Meanwhile, the services sector remained in expansion but slowed due to weaker new orders and extreme weather disruptions. The S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 52.9, and the ISM Services PMI declined to 52.8, as cold weather affected businesses and transportation, while interest rate expectations influenced financial services demand. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

GDP Growth Rate: 5.02% YoY GDP Growth Rate: 0.53% QoQ Full Year GDP Growth Rate 2024: 5.03% Indonesia's economic growth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), recorded only 5.02% YoY in Q4 2024, down from 5.04% YoY in Q4 2023 and below the government's 5.2% target set in the macroeconomic basic assumptions of the 2024 State Budget (APBN). The GDP value in Q4 2024 at current prices was IDR 5,674.9 trillion, and at constant prices was IDR 3,296.7 trillion. All expenditure-based components experienced growth. The element with the most extensive distribution was household consumption, contributing 54.04% and growing by 4.94% YoY. Additionally, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), expenditure for capital goods with a useful life of more than one year and not considered consumption goods, contributed 29.15% to total GDP and experienced growth of 5.03% YoY. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Inflation: MoM:-0.76% YoY: 0.76% Core Inflation: MoM: 0.30% YoY: 2.36% Volatile Food: MoM: 2.95% YoY: 3.07% Administered Price : MoM:-7.38% YoY:-6.41% Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 0.76% YoY in January 2025 from 1.57% YoY in December 2024, recording its lowest level since 2000. This inflation rate was lower than the consensus forecast of 1.88%. Core inflation increased to 2.36% YoY in January 2025 from 2.26% YoY in December 2024. Commodities contributing to core inflation included jewelry, cooking oil, ground coffee, and rice with side dishes. Meanwhile, the volatile food group experienced inflation of 3.07% YoY in January 2025, up from 0.12% YoY in December 2024, primarily due to price increases in red chilies, bird's eye chilies, and fresh fish. Government-regulated prices experienced deflation of 6.41% YoY in January 2025 from inflation of 0.56% YoY in December 2024, with significant contributions from electricity tariffs, airfare, and railway fares. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

GDP Growth Rate 4Q24 Advance Estimated (qoq): 2.30% The Fed Interest Rate: 4.25-4.50% PCE Headline Inflation: 2.60% YoY Unemployment Rate: 4.10% US economic growth expanded by 2.30% QoQ in the first estimate for Q4 2024, down from 3.10% in Q3 2024, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and below market expectations of 2.6%. Nevertheless, the general inflation indicator Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose to 2.60% YoY in December 2024 from 2.40% YoY in November 2024, aligning with market expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in January 2025 is expected by market consensus to remain at 4.1%, with the release scheduled for this week (7/2). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Money M2: 4.4% YoY Money M1: 5.8% YoY Loan Growth: 10.4% YoY Broad money supply (M2) growth slowed to 4.4% YoY, reaching IDR 9,211 trillion in December 2024, down from 6.5% YoY in November 2024. By component, M2 money development was driven by narrow money (M1) growth of 5.8% YoY and quasi-money growth of 0.3% YoY in December 2024. M2 money supply growth was supported by M1 money supply growth of 56.7%, consisting of currency growth outside commercial banks rural banks and rupiah demand deposits comprising electronic money and rupiah savings. M2 money supply growth has experienced a decline over the past year, contributing to the downward inflation trend. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Headline Inflation: 0.40% MoM Headline Inflation: 2.90% YoY Core Inflation: 0.20% MoM Core Inflation: 3.20% YoY US headline inflation increased in December 2024 due to rising energy prices, while core inflation showed signs of cooling. This mixed inflation data has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The Fed is projected to make only one rate cut in this year. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BI 7-day Repo Rate: 5.75% Deposit Facility: 5.00% Lending Facility: 6.50% The Bank of Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors meeting cut the interest rate by 25 bps to 5.75%, with the Deposit Facility rate at 5.00% and the Lending Facility rate at 6.50% on January 15, 2025. This move aims to support Indonesia's economic growth target. Additionally, it ensures inflation remains within the 2.5±1% target for 2025 and 2026. BI also focuses on maintaining pro-market stability for the Rupiah exchange rate through open market operations in the Spot market, Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF), and Government Securities (SBN) in the secondary market. The interest rate reduction was influenced by global factors, including decreased uncertainty in Trump administration policies, namely a 7.7% fiscal deficit, and anticipation of the impact of rising US Treasury Yield (UST) 10-year rates. BI also forecasts only one cut rate 25 bps in the Fed Fund Rate (FFR) in 2025, affecting the Dollar Index (DXY) movement. In domestic factor, recent data shows Indonesia's inflation rate is lower than BI's target. Furthermore, BI considers the exchange rate relatively stable and aligned with Indonesia's economic fundamentals. Lastly, BI projects lower economic growth for Indonesia in 2025 than previously estimated. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Balance of Trade: US$ 2.24 billion Export: US$ 23.46 billion Import: US$ 21.22 billion Indonesia's trade balance surplus decreased by 48.74% MoM to US$2.24 billion in December 2024 (Figure 1). Nevertheless, this continues the surplus trend that has persisted for 56 consecutive months since May 2020. The decline in Indonesia's trade balance surplus was due to a decrease in the non-oil and gas surplus to US$4.00 billion in December 2024 from US$5.62 billion in November 2024 (-28.8% MoM). Export performance was supported by significant export commodities of natural resources such as coal, palm oil, its derivatives, and iron and steel. Meanwhile, the oil and gas balance showed an increase in deficit to US$1.76 billion in December 2024 from a deficit of US$1.26 billion in November 2024. This was caused by the rise in domestic oil and gas demand volume, leading to higher imports of crude oil products (27.5% MoM) and an increase in the average price of oil and gas imports (0.6% MoM). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -