Inflation: MoM:-0.76% YoY: 0.76% Core Inflation: MoM: 0.30% YoY: 2.36% Volatile Food: MoM: 2.95% YoY: 3.07% Administered Price : MoM:-7.38% YoY:-6.41% Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 0.76% YoY in January 2025 from 1.57% YoY in December 2024, recording its lowest level since 2000. This inflation rate was lower than the consensus forecast of 1.88%. Core inflation increased to 2.36% YoY in January 2025 from 2.26% YoY in December 2024. Commodities contributing to core inflation included jewelry, cooking oil, ground coffee, and rice with side dishes. Meanwhile, the volatile food group experienced inflation of 3.07% YoY in January 2025, up from 0.12% YoY in December 2024, primarily due to price increases in red chilies, bird's eye chilies, and fresh fish. Government-regulated prices experienced deflation of 6.41% YoY in January 2025 from inflation of 0.56% YoY in December 2024, with significant contributions from electricity tariffs, airfare, and railway fares. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

GDP Growth Rate 4Q24 Advance Estimated (qoq): 2.30% The Fed Interest Rate: 4.25-4.50% PCE Headline Inflation: 2.60% YoY Unemployment Rate: 4.10% US economic growth expanded by 2.30% QoQ in the first estimate for Q4 2024, down from 3.10% in Q3 2024, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and below market expectations of 2.6%. Nevertheless, the general inflation indicator Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose to 2.60% YoY in December 2024 from 2.40% YoY in November 2024, aligning with market expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in January 2025 is expected by market consensus to remain at 4.1%, with the release scheduled for this week (7/2). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Money M2: 4.4% YoY Money M1: 5.8% YoY Loan Growth: 10.4% YoY Broad money supply (M2) growth slowed to 4.4% YoY, reaching IDR 9,211 trillion in December 2024, down from 6.5% YoY in November 2024. By component, M2 money development was driven by narrow money (M1) growth of 5.8% YoY and quasi-money growth of 0.3% YoY in December 2024. M2 money supply growth was supported by M1 money supply growth of 56.7%, consisting of currency growth outside commercial banks rural banks and rupiah demand deposits comprising electronic money and rupiah savings. M2 money supply growth has experienced a decline over the past year, contributing to the downward inflation trend. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Headline Inflation: 0.40% MoM Headline Inflation: 2.90% YoY Core Inflation: 0.20% MoM Core Inflation: 3.20% YoY US headline inflation increased in December 2024 due to rising energy prices, while core inflation showed signs of cooling. This mixed inflation data has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The Fed is projected to make only one rate cut in this year. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BI 7-day Repo Rate: 5.75% Deposit Facility: 5.00% Lending Facility: 6.50% The Bank of Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors meeting cut the interest rate by 25 bps to 5.75%, with the Deposit Facility rate at 5.00% and the Lending Facility rate at 6.50% on January 15, 2025. This move aims to support Indonesia's economic growth target. Additionally, it ensures inflation remains within the 2.5±1% target for 2025 and 2026. BI also focuses on maintaining pro-market stability for the Rupiah exchange rate through open market operations in the Spot market, Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF), and Government Securities (SBN) in the secondary market. The interest rate reduction was influenced by global factors, including decreased uncertainty in Trump administration policies, namely a 7.7% fiscal deficit, and anticipation of the impact of rising US Treasury Yield (UST) 10-year rates. BI also forecasts only one cut rate 25 bps in the Fed Fund Rate (FFR) in 2025, affecting the Dollar Index (DXY) movement. In domestic factor, recent data shows Indonesia's inflation rate is lower than BI's target. Furthermore, BI considers the exchange rate relatively stable and aligned with Indonesia's economic fundamentals. Lastly, BI projects lower economic growth for Indonesia in 2025 than previously estimated. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Balance of Trade: US$ 2.24 billion Export: US$ 23.46 billion Import: US$ 21.22 billion Indonesia's trade balance surplus decreased by 48.74% MoM to US$2.24 billion in December 2024 (Figure 1). Nevertheless, this continues the surplus trend that has persisted for 56 consecutive months since May 2020. The decline in Indonesia's trade balance surplus was due to a decrease in the non-oil and gas surplus to US$4.00 billion in December 2024 from US$5.62 billion in November 2024 (-28.8% MoM). Export performance was supported by significant export commodities of natural resources such as coal, palm oil, its derivatives, and iron and steel. Meanwhile, the oil and gas balance showed an increase in deficit to US$1.76 billion in December 2024 from a deficit of US$1.26 billion in November 2024. This was caused by the rise in domestic oil and gas demand volume, leading to higher imports of crude oil products (27.5% MoM) and an increase in the average price of oil and gas imports (0.6% MoM). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Consumer Confidence Index: 127.7 Retail Sales: 5.1% MoM* Retail Sales: 1.0% YoY* *preliminary The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose to 127.7 in December 2024 from 125.9 in November 2024. This increase was supported by the rise in both the Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) and the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI), reaching levels of 116.0 and 139.5, respectively, in December 2024 (Figure 1). Growing consumer confidence indicates the public is increasingly optimistic about Indonesia's current and future economic conditions.   By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Cadangan Devisa Indonesia naik 3.63% MoM menjadi US$155.7 miliar di Desember 2024 dari US$150.2 miliar di November 2024. Kenaikan cadangan devisa disumbang dari penerimaan pajak dan jasa, penerimaan devisa migas dan penarikan utang luar negeri di tengah kebijakan stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah. Meskipun demikian, level cadangan devisa saat ini masih masih tetap tinggi setara pembiayaan 6.7 bulan impor atau 6.5 bulan pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah, serta berada dalam 3 bulan impor di atas standar kecukupan internasional. Hal ini dapat menjaga stabilitas makroekonomi dan ketahanan sektor eksternal dari ketidakpastian kondisi pasar keuangan global. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks PMI S&P Global Manufaktur: 49.4 Indeks PMI S&P Global Jasa: 56.8 Indeks ISM Manufaktur: 49.3 Indeks ISM Jasa: 54.1 Ekonomi Amerika Serikat pada akhir 2024 menunjukkan performa yang berlawanan antara sektor manufaktur dan jasa. Sektor manufaktur masih mengalami kontraksi yang disebabkan oleh penurunan pesanan baru, produksi yang melambat, dan kenaikan biaya bahan baku yang signifikan. Di sisi lain, sektor jasa justru tumbuh pesat dengan permintaan pelanggan yang meningkat dan prospek bisnis yang positif. Pertumbuhan sektor jasa ini didorong oleh peningkatan pesanan baru dan ekspansi bisnis. Namun, sektor jasa keuangan perlu lebih berhati-hati menghadapi prospek suku bunga The Fed kedepan. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -