“BDMN : Loan growth maintained accompanied by improvements in asset quality”
BDMN's interest income grew 4% YoY to IDR5.7 trillion in 3M25. On the other hand, there was a higher increase in Interest expense (+17.6% YoY) to IDR1.89 trillion.
BDMN's disbursed loans grew 7% YoY to IDR192.7 trillion in 3M25. The wholesale segment contributed the most, reaching IDR116.4 trillion or 60% of total loans.
Gross NPL fell 30 bps YoY to 1.9% in 3M25, the lowest compared to peers, showing a downward trend since 2020. In addition, Loan at Risk (LaR) also booked a decline of 160 bps YoY to 10.4% in 3M25.
Interest Income is estimated to grow 6% YoY to IDR15.6 trillion in FY25F. Management targets BDMN's loan growth in 2025 of 9%-11%. BDMN focuses on specific ecosystems,
namely the Automotive, Hajj, and Education ecosystems.
Thus, we maintain our Buy rating for BDMN with the same projection and fair value as in the previous BDMN company update, which is 2810 with an upside potential of 16.12%.
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“BBRI : Loan growth is moderate, BBRI focuses on maintaining asset quality”
Moderate loan growth to improve asset quality. BBRI loan grew 5% YoY to IDR1,309 trillion in 3M25. This growth was supported by corporate loans (+13% YoY) and consumer loans (+9%YoY), contributing 18% and 15% to BBRI's total revenue, respectively.
For FY25F, BBRI targets credit growth of 7%-9%; this moderate target aligns with BBRI's efforts to maintain asset quality. For information, BBRI's gross NPL fell 10 bps YoY to 3% in 3M25, relatively in line with the management guideline in 2025F (<3%).
BBRI Interest Income +2.5% QoQ (-1.5% YoY) to IDR50.6 trillion in 3M25. With net interest income +4.1% QoQ (-1.7% YoY) to IDR36.4 trillion in 3M25, there was a decrease in interest expense by 1% YoY to IDR14.1 trillion in 3M25.
In terms of margin, BBRI's Net Interest Margin (NIM) was 7.68% (+20 bps YoY) in 3M25, in line with the management guideline of (7.3%-7.7%) for 2025.
Based on BBRI's 3M25 performance, we maintain our BUY rating for BBRI with a fair value of 5,325, the same as in the previous BBRI Company Update, with a potential upside of 37.24%.
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“BRIS : Gold Business Boosts BRIS Performance”
BRIS booked solid performance, net profit growth of 10.05% YoY to IDR1.9 trillion in 3M25. With this growth, BRIS continues the double digit annual profit growth trend in the last three years (2022: 41%, 2023: 34%, and 2024: 23%).
In terms of financing, BRIS booked a growth of 16.21% YoY to IDR287 trillion, mainly driven by consumer financing (+16.08% YoY), contributing 55% to total financing.
The gold business is a booster for BRIS' performance.BRIS' gold business booked significant growth of +82% YoY to IDR14 trillion in 3M25, contributing 5% of total revenue in 3M25 vs. (FY21: 2%).
Gold business provides high returns for BRIS with controlled costs (Yield 13.29% vs. CoC 0.02%). In the future, with the Bullion Bank permit obtained by BRIS, it can further increase the contribution of the gold business to BRIS's revenue.
With BRIS' performance in line with our expectations, we maintain our Buy rating for BRIS with the same projection and fair value as in the previous BRIS company update, which is 3580 with an upside potential of 25.61%.
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“BMRI : Wholesale business supports loan growth resilience”
BMRI's net profit in FY24 grew 3.9% YoY to IDR13.2 trillion in 3M25. This growth is in line with Interest Income, which rose 11.5% YoY, although Interest Expense increased higher (24.4% YoY) in 3M25.
Wholesale Business was able to maintain BMRI's loan growth. BMRI booked a loan growth of 16.5% YoY to Rp1.672 trillion in 3M25, with the most significant contribution from corporate loans and commercial loans, which grew 37.8% and 23.5%, respectively, to total revenue.
Regarding liquidity, the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) was booked higher, at 92.5%, compared to 88.2% in 3M25. However, this LDR is still within BI's safe limits (78%-92%).
We estimate BMRI's Interest Income can grow 7% YoY in FY25F. Several factors, such as improving domestic consumption, the realization of private and government investment, and downstream, have the potential to support BMRI's loan growth.
Therefore, we maintain the Buy rating for BMRI with the same projection and fair value in the previous BMRI company update, which is 6325.
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“MIDI : Operating Profit Remains Solid Amid Operating Expense Pressure in 1Q25”
MIDI booked revenue growth of 15.25% YoY to IDR5.52 trillion in 1Q25 (in line with our FY25F estimate). This growth was driven by a significant increase in fresh food segment sales by 44.98% YoY to IDR938 billion, followed by non-food segment increase by 19.7% YoY to IDR1.39 trillion, and food segment increase by 7.08% YoY to IDR3.19 trillion in 1Q25.
MIDI's operating expenses increased by 13.8% YoY to IDR1.07 trillion in 1Q25. This increase was mainly driven by a 22.37% YoY increase in general and administrative expenses to IDR123 billion and an 11.1% YoY increase in selling and distribution expenses to IDR1 trillion. However, MIDI still booked solid operating profit growth of 17.15% YoY to IDR245 billion in 1Q25.
MIDI's net profit increased by 15.94% YoY to IDR173 billion in 1Q25. Besides being driven by solid revenue performance in 1Q25, the increase in MIDI's net profit was also driven by the efficiency of non-operating expenses by 10.27% YoY to IDR11 billion in 1Q25.
As MIDI's share price has increased by around 14% from the closing price in the previous MIDI company update, we changed MIDI's rating to Hold. With the same projection and fair value at IDR428 per share, the potential upside is 9.74%.
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“MYOR : Increase in Cost of Goods Sold Pressures Net Profit in 1Q25”
MYOR booked revenue growth of 12.5% YoY to IDR9.86 trillion in 1Q25 (in line with our FY25F estimates). The growth was driven by a significant increase in sales of the packaged processed beverages segment by 18.37% YoY to IDR4.92 trillion, followed by the packaged processed food segment up by 8.89% YoY to IDR5.94 trillion in 1Q25.
MYOR's cost of goods sold increased by 37.45% YoY to IDR7.42 trillion in 1Q25. We assess that the increase in MYOR's cost of goods sold in 1Q25 was due to the increase in average cocoa price by 32.3% YoY to US$9,301/ton and coffee price increased by 96.4% YoY to US$379/Lbs. This condition caused MYOR's gross profit to decrease by 27.55% YoY to IDR2.43 trillion in 1Q25.
MYOR's net profit decreased by 30% YoY to IDR705 billion in 1Q25. The decrease in net profit was in line with the significant increase in cost of goods sold and operating expenses, which increased 21.74% YoY to IDR1.31 trillion in 1Q25. This condition caused MYOR's operating profit to decrease by 35.58% YoY to IDR846 billion.
We maintain our Buy rating for MYOR with the same projection and fair value in the previous MYOR company update at IDR2,850 per share. This is in line with MYOR's revenue growth, which is still in line with our FY25F estimate.
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“BNGA : Optimize Consumer Loans with Maintained Liquidity”
BNGA booked net profit growth of 7.4% YoY to IDR1.8 trillion in 3M25. This was driven by an increase in Interest Income of 6.7% YoY to IDR6.2 trillion and a decrease in provision expenses of 35.5% YoY to IDR316 billion in the same period.
Along with this achievement, BNGA increased the dividend payout ratio to 60% from the 2024 financial year, higher than the average DPR for the last 3 years of 47%.
BNGA Loan grew 8.7% YoY, with gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) down 185 bps YoY in 3M25. This growth was supported by corporate loans, which rose 13.7% YoY to Rp91.73 trillion with a contribution of 40% to total loans.
CASA ratio increased to 66% in 3M25, in line with BNGA's focus on gaining bigger low Cost
of Fund (COF) with digitalization through OCTO mobile.
BNGA aims to optimize consumer loans through mortgage loan optimization and OCTO mobile. For the consumer segment, BNGA will optimize mortgage loans by focusing on secondary cities without ignoring big cities (with low Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital).
Therefore, we maintain the Buy rating for BNGA with the same projection and fair value as in the previous BNGA company update, namely 2040, with a potential upside of 15.25%.
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“BBTN: Positive results from the increase in High Yield Loans”
BBTN booked an interest income of IDR8.2 trillion, growing by 7% YoY in 3M25. Interest Expense decreased 0.3% YoY to IDR4.4 trillion, with Operating Profit Before Provision (PPOP) of IDR2.13 trillion (+17.3% YoY) in 3M25.
BBTN Loan grew 5.5% YoY to IDR363 trillion in 3M25. Mortgage growth, which rose 7.8% YoY in 3M25, supported this growth. Where housing loans still dominate BBTN's loan distribution (79% in 3M25).
Regarding asset quality, Loan at Risk (LAR) fell 127 bps YoY to 20.3% in 3M25, although there was an increase in gross NonPerforming Loans (NPL).
Current Account Saving Account (CASA) ratio grew 120 bps YoY in 3M25. BBTN booked total Third Party Funds of IDR385 trillion (+7.5% YoY) in 3M25. Meanwhile, BBTN's CASA was booked at IDR197 trillion (+10.1% YoY) and deposits at IDR188 trillion (+5% YoY).
The significant growth in CASA is an effort to reduce the negative impact of high interest rate conditions on the Cost of funds (CoF).
BBTN 3M25 performance aligns with our FY25F estimate in the previous Company Update. So, we maintain our Buy rating for BBTN with a fair value of 1,250. Thus, the potential upside becomes 20.77%.
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“EXCL Result Update FY24 : Robust Performance Inline with Solid 4Q24 Results”
EXCL recorded a net profit of IDR502 billion in 4Q24 (+92.81% YoY; +22.07% QoQ), which was in line with our projection of 101.51% of the target. This solid net profit contributed to an improved net profit margin that reached 5.29% in 12M24 (vs 3.93% in 12M23). In addition, the company managed to keep operating expenses growing at the lower-single-digit level, with total operating expenses reaching Rp28.80 trillion in 12M24 (+3.08% YoY). This achievement was reflected in sales and marketing expenses that were successfully reduced by >10%, recording Rp505 billion in 4Q24 (-22.53% YoY; -1.03% QoQ). Overall, EXCL's EBITDA was recorded at IDR4.50 trillion in 4Q24 (+10.97% YoY; +5.64% QoQ), with EBITDA margin continuing to grow reaching 51.99% in 12M24 (vs 49.14% in 12M23).
EXCL's data segment continues to show mid-high single-digit growth throughout 2024, with data consumption rising sharply at year-end, reaching 2,724 petabytes in 4Q24 (vs 2,194 PB in 3Q24). The increase in data consumption was driven by high demand due to the momentum of Christmas, New Year, and regional elections. In the broadband sector, EXCL is now the second largest ISP player in Indonesia, with >1 million fixed broadband subscribers. Although its contribution to revenue is still relatively small (<10%), this segment shows attractive growth potential in the future.
We maintain a BUY rating on EXCL with a potential upside of 22.76% to IDR2,900 per share. Currently, we have not updated our valuation pending FY25 guidance from the management. However, we remain optimistic about EXCL's prospects, especially as the fixed broadband segment still has significant room for growth, supported by the acquisition of ~750k Link Net subscribers, as we have discussed in our previous report (please see report). We see this segment as having great potential going forward, both in fixed broadband and fixed mobile convergence. Downside risk: potential regulatory hurdles in the merger process and pressure from price competition.
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“BBCA : Inline with our estimated, changed to Buy”
BBCA's interest income grew 8.6% YoY to IDR95 trillion in FY24. This growth was in line with the development of Net Interest Income to IDR82.5 trillion (+12.7% yoY or 1.4% QoQ)
Consistent growth in credit distribution in the last five years. BBCA recorded credit growth of 13.8% YoY in FY24.
Increased third-party funds (TPF) also accompanied this credit growth. BBCA's TPF grew 2.9% YoY to IDR1.134 trillion in FY24, with the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) growing 4.4% YoY.
BBCA’s gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) decreased to 1.8% (10 bps YoY; 30 bps QoQ) in FY24.
Thus, with the current price and performance of BBCA shares, we change BBCA's rating to buy by maintaining the fair value from the previous Company Update at 11,600, so the potential upside becomes 20.83%.
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