“MYOR : Increase in Cost of Goods Sold Pressures Net Profit in 1Q25”

02 Mei 2025
MYOR booked revenue growth of 12.5% YoY to IDR9.86 trillion in 1Q25 (in line with our FY25F estimates). The growth was driven by a significant increase in sales of the packaged processed beverages segment by 18.37% YoY to IDR4.92 trillion, followed by the packaged processed food segment up by 8.89% YoY to IDR5.94 trillion in 1Q25. MYOR's cost of goods sold increased by 37.45% YoY to IDR7.42 trillion in 1Q25. We assess that the increase in MYOR's cost of goods sold in 1Q25 was due to the increase in average cocoa price by 32.3% YoY to US$9,301/ton and coffee price increased by 96.4% YoY to US$379/Lbs. This condition caused MYOR's gross profit to decrease by 27.55% YoY to IDR2.43 trillion in 1Q25. MYOR's net profit decreased by 30% YoY to IDR705 billion in 1Q25. The decrease in net profit was in line with the significant increase in cost of goods sold and operating expenses, which increased 21.74% YoY to IDR1.31 trillion in 1Q25. This condition caused MYOR's operating profit to decrease by 35.58% YoY to IDR846 billion. We maintain our Buy rating for MYOR with the same projection and fair value in the previous MYOR company update at IDR2,850 per share. This is in line with MYOR's revenue growth, which is still in line with our FY25F estimate.
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“BNGA : Optimize Consumer Loans with Maintained Liquidity”

30 Apr 2025
BNGA booked net profit growth of 7.4% YoY to IDR1.8 trillion in 3M25. This was driven by an increase in Interest Income of 6.7% YoY to IDR6.2 trillion and a decrease in provision expenses of 35.5% YoY to IDR316 billion in the same period. Along with this achievement, BNGA increased the dividend payout ratio to 60% from the 2024 financial year, higher than the average DPR for the last 3 years of 47%. BNGA Loan grew 8.7% YoY, with gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) down 185 bps YoY in 3M25. This growth was supported by corporate loans, which rose 13.7% YoY to Rp91.73 trillion with a contribution of 40% to total loans. CASA ratio increased to 66% in 3M25, in line with BNGA's focus on gaining bigger low Cost of Fund (COF) with digitalization through OCTO mobile. BNGA aims to optimize consumer loans through mortgage loan optimization and OCTO mobile. For the consumer segment, BNGA will optimize mortgage loans by focusing on secondary cities without ignoring big cities (with low Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital). Therefore, we maintain the Buy rating for BNGA with the same projection and fair value as in the previous BNGA company update, namely 2040, with a potential upside of 15.25%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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“BBTN: Positive results from the increase in High Yield Loans”

28 Apr 2025
BBTN booked an interest income of IDR8.2 trillion, growing by 7% YoY in 3M25. Interest Expense decreased 0.3% YoY to IDR4.4 trillion, with Operating Profit Before Provision (PPOP) of IDR2.13 trillion (+17.3% YoY) in 3M25. BBTN Loan grew 5.5% YoY to IDR363 trillion in 3M25. Mortgage growth, which rose 7.8% YoY in 3M25, supported this growth. Where housing loans still dominate BBTN's loan distribution (79% in 3M25). Regarding asset quality, Loan at Risk (LAR) fell 127 bps YoY to 20.3% in 3M25, although there was an increase in gross NonPerforming Loans (NPL). Current Account Saving Account (CASA) ratio grew 120 bps YoY in 3M25. BBTN booked total Third Party Funds of IDR385 trillion (+7.5% YoY) in 3M25. Meanwhile, BBTN's CASA was booked at IDR197 trillion (+10.1% YoY) and deposits at IDR188 trillion (+5% YoY). The significant growth in CASA is an effort to reduce the negative impact of high interest rate conditions on the Cost of funds (CoF). BBTN 3M25 performance aligns with our FY25F estimate in the previous Company Update. So, we maintain our Buy rating for BBTN with a fair value of 1,250. Thus, the potential upside becomes 20.77%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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“EXCL Result Update FY24 : Robust Performance Inline with Solid 4Q24 Results”

05 Feb 2025
EXCL recorded a net profit of IDR502 billion in 4Q24 (+92.81% YoY; +22.07% QoQ), which was in line with our projection of 101.51% of the target. This solid net profit contributed to an improved net profit margin that reached 5.29% in 12M24 (vs 3.93% in 12M23). In addition, the company managed to keep operating expenses growing at the lower-single-digit level, with total operating expenses reaching Rp28.80 trillion in 12M24 (+3.08% YoY). This achievement was reflected in sales and marketing expenses that were successfully reduced by >10%, recording Rp505 billion in 4Q24 (-22.53% YoY; -1.03% QoQ). Overall, EXCL's EBITDA was recorded at IDR4.50 trillion in 4Q24 (+10.97% YoY; +5.64% QoQ), with EBITDA margin continuing to grow reaching 51.99% in 12M24 (vs 49.14% in 12M23). EXCL's data segment continues to show mid-high single-digit growth throughout 2024, with data consumption rising sharply at year-end, reaching 2,724 petabytes in 4Q24 (vs 2,194 PB in 3Q24). The increase in data consumption was driven by high demand due to the momentum of Christmas, New Year, and regional elections. In the broadband sector, EXCL is now the second largest ISP player in Indonesia, with >1 million fixed broadband subscribers. Although its contribution to revenue is still relatively small (<10%), this segment shows attractive growth potential in the future. We maintain a BUY rating on EXCL with a potential upside of 22.76% to IDR2,900 per share. Currently, we have not updated our valuation pending FY25 guidance from the management. However, we remain optimistic about EXCL's prospects, especially as the fixed broadband segment still has significant room for growth, supported by the acquisition of ~750k Link Net subscribers, as we have discussed in our previous report (please see report). We see this segment as having great potential going forward, both in fixed broadband and fixed mobile convergence. Downside risk: potential regulatory hurdles in the merger process and pressure from price competition. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On- .
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“BBCA : Inline with our estimated, changed to Buy”

24 Jan 2025
BBCA's interest income grew 8.6% YoY to IDR95 trillion in FY24. This growth was in line with the development of Net Interest Income to IDR82.5 trillion (+12.7% yoY or 1.4% QoQ) Consistent growth in credit distribution in the last five years. BBCA recorded credit growth of 13.8% YoY in FY24. Increased third-party funds (TPF) also accompanied this credit growth. BBCA's TPF grew 2.9% YoY to IDR1.134 trillion in FY24, with the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) growing 4.4% YoY. BBCA’s gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) decreased to 1.8% (10 bps YoY; 30 bps QoQ) in FY24. Thus, with the current price and performance of BBCA shares, we change BBCA's rating to buy by maintaining the fair value from the previous Company Update at 11,600, so the potential upside becomes 20.83%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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EXCL: “XLSmart” Kekuatan baru di industri telekomunikasi

12 Des 2024
Merger XL Axiata dan Smartfren telah melahirkan entitas baru yang lebih kuat bernama XLSmart. Dengan penggabungan sumber daya dan spektrum, XLSmart berpotensi menjadi pemain utama dalam industri telekomunikasi Indonesia. XLSmart memiliki kepemilikan spektrum yang sangat besar, terutama pada frekuensi rendah yang efektif untuk menjangkau wilayah luas. Hal ini memberikan keunggulan kompetitif dalam hal cakupan jaringan dan kualitas layanan. Merger ini diharapkan dapat menghasilkan sinergi biaya yang signifikan, terutama melalui pengurangan situs jaringan yang tumpang tindih dan optimalisasi operasional. Sinergi ini akan meningkatkan efisiensi dan profitabilitas perusahaan. XLSmart akan fokus pada ekspansi ke wilayah-wilayah potensial. Selain itu, perusahaan juga akan terus mengembangkan layanan digital untuk meningkatkan pengalaman pelanggan dan membuka peluang bisnis baru. Kami masih mempertahankan rating *BUY* untuk EXCL dengan target price Rp2900/Saham. Kami masih menyukai EXCL karena ekspektasi pertumbuhan pendapatan mendatang yang kuat akibat sinergi merger serta potensi pertumbuhan segmen fixed broadband. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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“CPIN : Biaya Operasional Menekan Laba Bersih CPIN di 9M24”

09 Des 2024
CPIN mencatatkan pertumbuhan penjualan sebesar 5.5% YoY menjadi Rp49.7 triliun di 9M24 (76% dari FY24F Kami). Pertumbuhan penjualan tersebut didorong oleh penjualan segmen Processed Chicken yang tumbuh 23.96% YoY menjadi Rp9 triliun di 9M24 (vs. Rp7.27 triliun di 9M23) dan segmen Day-old Chicken (DOC) tumbuh 21.45% YoY menjadi Rp1.7 triliun di 9M24 (vs. Rp1.4 triliun di 9M23). Operating Profit terbesar CPIN di 9M24 dikontribusi oleh segmen Feed. Meskipun mengalami penurunan penjualan di 9M24, segmen Feed masih menjadi kontributor terbesar pada operating profit CPIN di 9M24 yakni sebesar Rp2.77 triliun. Sementara segmen Processed Chicken mengalami kerugian operasional sebesar Rp169.98 miliar di 9M24 meskipun secara penjualan mengalami pertumbuhan signifikan sehingga CPIN perlu melakukan efisiensi biaya operasional, terutama biaya promosi dan iklan untuk menjaga kinerja kedepan. Laba bersih CPIN turun 10.78% YoY menjadi Rp2.38 triliun di 9M24 (vs. Rp2.67 trilun di 9M23). Penurunan laba bersih tersebut disebabkan oleh meningkatnya biaya operasional CPIN menjadi Rp3.18 triliun di 9M24 (vs. Rp2.89 triliun di 9M23). Namun, perolehan laba bersih CPIN di 9M24 masih sesuai dengan estimasi kami karena setara dengan 77% dari laba bersih FY24F kami. Kami mempertahankan peringkat Buy untuk CPIN dengan potensi kenaikan 11.42%. Hal ini seiring dengan pertumbuhan penjualan serta perolehan laba bersih CPIN yang masih sesuai dengan estimasi FY24F kami. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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“JPFA : Kinerja Keuangan 9M24 Sesuai dengan Estimasi FY24F Kami”

09 Des 2024
Penjualan JPFA tumbuh 9.3% YoY menjadi Rp41.28 triliun di 9M24 (75% dari FY24F kami). Pertumbuhan tersebut seiring dengan pertumbuhan signifikan penjualan segmen Poultry Breeding sebesar 33.49% YoY menjadi Rp2.39 triliun diikuti oleh pertumbuhan penjualan segmen Animal Feeds sebesar 9.89% YoY menjadi Rp11 triliun. Laba bersih JPFA tumbuh 125.8% YoY menjadi Rp2.2 triliun di 9M24 (vs. Rp2.6 triliun FY24F kami). Perolehan laba bersih tersebut seiring dengan pertumbuhan penjualan di 9M24 serta di dorong oleh kinerja Non-Operasional. JPFA mencatatkan profitabilitas yang lebih baik di 9M24. Gross Profit Margin tercatat di level 20.94% (vs. 17.42% di 9M23), Operating Profit Margin tercatat naik menjadi 8.83% (vs. 5.29% di 9M23), serta Net Profit Margin naik menjadi 5.44% (vs. 2.63% di 9M23). Menggunakan metode Discounted Cash Flow dengan Required Return sebesar 9.85% serta Terminal Growth 4.01%, kami memperkirakan nilai wajar JPFA di Rp1,990 per saham (Expected PE di 6.31x dan EV/EBITDA di 4.88x pada FY24). Sehingga, Kami mempertahankan peringkat Buy untuk JPFA dengan potensi kenaikan 19.49%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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“TOWR : Strategi Baru untuk Perbaikan Neraca Keuangan dan Modal Kerja”

09 Des 2024
Demi Stabilitas dan Pertumbuhan Jangka Panjang Melalui keterbukaan informasi yang sampaikan perseroan, TOWR mengumumkan akan melaksanakan penerbitan saham baru dalam waktu dekat. Nantinya perseroan akan menerbitkan saham baru sejumlah 5 milyar lembar saham dengan pelaksanaan sebesar 900/lembar saham. Target dana yang terkumpul dari right issue sebesar Rp4.5 triliun. Dengan dana hasil right issue yang telah terkumpul perseroan akan menggunakan pada pembayaran pinjaman serta modal kerja Protelindo selaku anak usaha TOWR. Namun aksi korporasi ini masih menunggu keputusan para pemegang saham yang baru akan memutuskan dalam RUPSLB yang akan berlangsung pada Jumat 25 Oktober 2024. Opsi Pembayaran Utang TOWR dalam Pertimbangan Pandangan kami, TOWR akan meraih seluruh dana hasil dari aksi right issue yang dilakukan sebesar Rp4.5 triliun. Berdasarkan poin pertama yang telah dipaparkan, dana dari rights issue tersebut akan digunakan untuk pembayaran utang dan modal kerja. Jika diasumsikan perseroan menggunakan seluruh dana untuk restrukturisasi utang, hal ini akan menyehatkan kondisi keuangan perseroan. Kami memperbarui valuasi kami dengan memperkirakan Net Debt TOWR akan mencapai Rp51.19 triliun pada akhir 2024 (NGR : 2.79x ; Net Debt / EBITDA : 4.91x), NET Debt membengkak dari perkiraaan kami sebelumnya yang hanya mencapai Rp48.87 triliun (NGR : 2.66x ; Net Debt / EBITDA : 4.69x) hal ini disebabkan oleh akuisisi IBST yang dilakukan perseroan pada 2Q24. Namun Dengan adanya penambahan modal yang diasumsikan digunakan untuk pembayaran utang, hal ini akan memperbaiki posisi neraca TOWR. Kami memperkirakan jika transaksi ini terjadi net debt untuk tahun 2025 akan mencapai Rp46.70 triliun (NGR : 2.04X ; Net Debt / EBITDA : 4.48x). Kami Merubah Rekomendasi Kami Dari BUY To HOLD Kami memperbarui report kami dengan merubah rekomendasi dari BUY to HOLD untuk TOWR dengan potensi kenaikan yang lebih rendah dari report kami sebelumnya (report sebelumnya) sebesar 5.23% atau Rp860per saham. Saat ini, kami masih menunggu hasil keputusan RUPSLB dan prospektus pengunaan dana right issue tersebut sebelum melakukan penyesuaian kembali terhadap valuasi. Setelah RUPSLB telah dilaksanakan, kami akan melakukan penyesuaian terhadap valuasi tersebut. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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