
“ISAT: Data Growth Holds, Profit Stable Despite Topline Pressure”
ISAT posted a moderate performance in 2Q25, reflected by revenue of Rp13.53 trillion (–0.34% QoQ; –4.31% YoY). Cumulatively, ISAT's revenue reached Rp27.11 trillion (–3.1% YoY), falling below our estimates, market consensus, and the 5-year average (Phintas: 46.7%; Cons: 46.2%; 5Y Avg: 48%). The decline in the cellular segment, ISAT's main revenue contributor, was primarily due to a drop in prepaid subscribers (–5.7% YoY) and total subscribers overall (–4.02% YoY), leading to a 3.6% YoY decrease in cellular revenue to Rp22.75 trillion. Meanwhile, MIDI and fixed connectivity segments posted mixed results, with revenues growing 1.15% and declining 13.2% YoY, respectively.Pressure on ISAT’s performance was also visible from the increase in cost of service, which rose 1.86% QoQ (+5.14% YoY) to Rp5.82 trillion in 2Q25. Additionally, depreciation and amortization expenses increased 2.99% QoQ (+0.88% YoY) to Rp4.04 trillion, in line with aggressive network expansion, marked by the addition of around 18.9 thousand BTS during 1H25 (+7.86% YoY). As a result of these combined factors, operating profit weakened to Rp2.40 trillion in 2Q25 (–3.66% QoQ; –17.2% YoY).EBITDA remained relatively flat at Rp6.44 trillion in 2Q25 (+0.39% QoQ; –6.7% YoY), with a stable EBITDA margin of 47.59%. Cumulatively, EBITDA reached Rp12.86 trillion (–4.15% YoY), broadly in line with our estimates, consensus, and the 5-year average (Phintas: 47.2%; Cons: 45.6%; 5Y Avg: 48%). From the bottom line, net income experienced significant pressure, falling to Rp1.02 trillion in 2Q25 (–21.88% QoQ; –28.85% YoY), bringing 1H25 net income to Rp2.34 trillion (–14.6% YoY), with a net profit margin declining to 8.61% (vs. 9.77% in 1H24).We downgrade our recommendation from BUY to HOLD for ISAT (TP: Rp2,200). Although there have been industry-wide initiatives among telco players to standardize starter pack pricing as part of a broader pricing strategy consolidation, this has yet to be reflected meaningfully in this quarter’s financial performance. The pricing adjustment implemented in mid-March 2025 is likely still in the early stages of rollout, while its impact on new subscriber acquisition and data traffic monetization may require more time to be reflected in the financials. This condition is further exacerbated by weak consumer purchasing power, which continues to weigh on demand recovery and spending on data services.Upside Risks: 1) The standardized starter pack pricing strategy could help drive traffic and subscriber growth 2) Stable interest rates may ease financial burdens and open up room for further expansion.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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“ERAA : iPhone 16 Series Drives Revenue Growth in 2Q25”
ERAA booked revenue growth of 5.8% YoY to IDR35.04 trillion in 6M25. On a quarterly basis, ERAA's revenue grew significantly by 20.66% QoQ to IDR19.16 trillion in 2Q25, driven by a significant increase in sales of the cellular phone and tablet segment by 25.42% QoQ to IDR15.47 trillion in 2Q25.ERAA's operating expenses increased by 14.05% YoY to IDR2.56 trillion in 6M25. This condition resulted in ERAA's operating profit growing by a limited 1.26% YoY to IDR1.12 trillion in 6M25. On a quarterly basis, ERAA's operating profit grew significantly by 59.43% QoQ to IDR689 billion in 2Q25, in line with higher revenue growth compared to operating expenses in 2Q25.ERAA's net profit grew 6.61% YoY to IDR606 billion in 6M25, driven by a 19.79% YoY decrease in non-operating expenses to IDR257 billion in 6M25 due to an increase in financial income from interest income and a decrease in financial expenses due to lower interest expenses.We give ERAA a Hold rating with the same projections and fair value as the previous ERAA company update at IDR555 per share. This is in line with ERAA's performance, which is still in line with our FY25F projections.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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“BBNI : Moderation in Term Deposit Rate Potentially Becomes BBNI’s Catalyst in FY25F”
BBNI's interest income grew 4.5% YoY (1.1% QoQ) to Rp33.6 trillion in 6M25. BBNI's net interest income grew 2.3% YoY, decreased 1.6% QoQ in 6M25.The higher increase in interest expense compared to interest income put pressure on BBNI's interest margin (interest income +4.5% YoY vs. interest expense +7.6% YoY in 6M25).BBNI's asset quality remains healthy amid macroeconomic fluctuations. BBNI's gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) decreased 3 bps YoY to 1.9% in 6M25 with Loan growing 7.1% YoY in 6M25.In terms of liquidity, BBNI managed to improve its liquidity with LDR decreasing 780 bps YoY to 86.2% in 6M25 vs. 94% in 6M25.Moderation in the Term Deposit (TD) rate and growth in the Current Account Savings Account (CASA) have the potential to optimize BBNI's performance in FY25F.With lower BI rate, BBNI's TD rate could also moderate by +-1% in 2025F. Meanwhile, Wondr by BBNI has the potential to optimize BBNI's CASA growth. Therefore, we project BBNI's interest income to grow 6% in FY25F.Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating for BBNI, with the same projection and fair value as in the previous BBNI company update, at 5325.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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“TBIG: Solid Earnings, Amid Flat Revenues”
TBIG posted a resilient 1Q25 performance despite relatively flat revenue. TBIG booked revenue of IDR 1.73 trillion (-0.5% QoQ, +1.6% YoY), broadly in line with our estimate, the consensus, and the 5-year historical average (Phintas: 25.35%; Consensus: 24.6%; 5-year avg: 24.2%). The tower segment remained the main contributor (>91% of total revenue) but experienced a slight contraction of -0.9% QoQ to IDR 1.58 trillion. Conversely, the fiber segment delivered solid growth (+3.7% QoQ; +10.3% YoY) to IDR 151 billion, reflecting sustained demand for fiber amid weak tower leasing momentum.While top-line growth was limited, cost efficiency helped operational performance exceed expectations. EBITDA edged up to IDR 1.11 trillion (+1.1% QoQ, +1.2% YoY), beating our forecast (Phintas: 26.77%) and broadly in line with consensus and the 5-year average (Consensus: 25.1%; 5-year avg: 24.2%). The improvement was primarily driven by a combination of a -4.1% QoQ decrease in cost of revenue and a substantial -13.9% QoQ decline in operating expenses, resulting in EBITDA margin expansion to 85.6% in 1Q25 (vs 84.2% in 4Q24).Cost and tax efficiency further supported bottom-line growth. TBIG booked net profit of IDR 413 billion (+112.8% QoQ; +98.5% YoY), in line with our estimate, consensus, and the 5-year average (Phintas: 25.05%; Consensus: 26.3%; 5-year avg: 20.7%). The improvement was driven by a -5.1% QoQ reduction in interest expenses and a significant -24.9% QoQ drop in tax expenses, which also boosted net profit margin to 23.9% (vs 12.2% in 4Q24). The balance sheet also strengthened, with DER falling to 2.96x in 1Q25 (vs 3.23x in 4Q24).We maintain our HOLD recommendation on TBIG, consistent with our previous report. Despite notable improvements in operational and bottom-line metrics in 1Q25, the near-term outlook for the tower business remains clouded by demand-side uncertainty. One of the key risks lies in the ongoing consolidation process between EXCL and FREN, which together contribute approximately 31.92% of TBIG’s total revenue. Downside Risks: (1) High interest rates potentially pressuring profitability margins; (2) A meaningful number of decommissioned sites due to EXCL-FREN consolidation.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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“TOWR: Earnings Soft, FTTH Emerges as Growth Engine “
TOWR recorded revenue of Rp3.21 trillion in 1Q25 (-2.38% QoQ; +5.31% YoY), relatively in line with our estimate, consensus, and the 5-year historical average (Phintas: 24.57%; Cons: 24.24%; Avg 5-Years: 23.8%). The sequential decline in revenue was mainly driven by a sharp drop in the connectivity segment, which fell -14.43% QoQ to Rp350 billion, as well as a slight contraction in the tower segment the main contributor which declined -1.56% QoQ. On the other hand, the FTTH segment posted solid growth of +37.11% QoQ and +84.75% YoY, reaching Rp218 billion, reflecting strong momentum in the fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) rollout.On the profitability side, EBITDA came in at Rp2.68 trillion in 1Q25 (-2.76% QoQ; +5.25% YoY), in line with our estimate, consensus, and the 5-year average (Phintas: 24.55%; Cons: 24.19%; Avg 5-Years: 23.8%). The QoQ EBITDA contraction slightly pressured the EBITDA margin to 83.48% in 1Q25 (vs 83.54% in 1Q24). This margin pressure extended down to the bottom line, with net profit declining to Rp803 billion (-9.56% QoQ; +0.66% YoY), and net profit margin narrowing to 25.02% from 26.17% in 1Q24.On the Operationally side, TOWR showed signs of a quarterly slowdown. Total towers increased marginally to 35.51k units (+0.30% QoQ), while total tenants remained flat at 58.04k (+0.02% QoQ), resulting in a slight decline in tenancy ratio to 1.63x (vs 1.64x in 4Q24). On the fiber side, total FTTT fiber length rose slightly by +0.61% QoQ to 218.84k km, while FTTH subscribers grew a solid +7.96% QoQ. Meanwhile, average monthly revenue per tenant dropped -1.46% QoQ to Rp12.3 million, and revenue per fiber ticked up only slightly by +0.19% QoQ to Rp839k, signaling ongoing monetization pressure in early-stage fiber expansion.We maintain our BUY recommendation on TOWR with a target price of Rp650, in line with our previous report. While margin pressure remains a near-term concern, we see TOWR’s competitive edge in the fiber segment as a key long-term growth engine amid softening tower performance during the ongoing industry consolidation. Furthermore, asset monetization both in fiber and towers will be essential to support profitability and sustain future growth. Downside Risks: 1) Elevated interest rates that could pressure profitability; 2) Intensifying competition in the fiber segment which may squeeze margins; and 3) High site deactivations following the EXCL-FREN consolidation.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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“CTRA : Solid financial and operational performance in 3M25”
CTRA's net profit grew 27% YoY to IDR669 billion in 3M25. This achievement is in line with revenue growth of 18% YoY to IDR2.7 trillion in 3M25.The revenue growth was driven by growth in the property development segment by 23% YoY and the recurring segment by +1% YoY in 3M25.CTRA posted marketing sales of IDR3.15 trillion in 3M25, which is equivalent to 29% of the FY25F target. This achievement reflects consumer demand and solid performance to achieve the FY25F marketing sales target.Launching the Calamus Cluster at Citra Garden Bintaro is one of the drivers of 3M25 marketing sales.CTRA's geographically diversified product portfolio is a key advantage in the residential segment.We maintain our buy rating for CTRA with the same fair value as in its previous company update: Rp1,320 (+36.79%).By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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“ACES : Lifestyle Products Drive Revenue in 1Q25”
ACES booked revenue growth of 7.2% YoY to IDR2.13 trillion in 1Q25. This growth was driven by a 10.64% YoY increase in sales of lifestyle products to IDR930 billion, and home improvement products increased by 5.5% YoY to IDR1.1 trillion in 1Q25. Meanwhile, toy products booked stable sales at IDR72 billion, and consignment sales decreased by 8.38% YoY to IDR34 billion.ACES's operating expenses increased by 19.97% YoY to IDR802 billion in 1Q25. This increase was driven by a 26.11% YoY increase in selling expenses to IDR651 billion and a 22.98% YoY increase in general and administrative expenses to IDR223 billion in 1Q25.In detail, the increase in ACES's operating expenses was due to an increase in advertising and promotion expenses to IDR41 billion in 1Q25 (vs. IDR18 billion in 1Q24) due to rebranding and initiatives to increase AZKO brand awareness. In addition, increases in salaries and benefits also drive the increase in operating expenses in 1Q25.ACES's net profit decreased by 32% YoY to IDR138 billion in 1Q25. This net profit is equivalent to 15% of our FY25F. We assess this condition is reasonable as ACES is a cyclical company. In addition, the decrease in ACES's net profit was also driven by an increase in financial expenses by 34.26% YoY to IDR42 billion in 1Q25.We maintain our Buy rating for ACES with the same projection and fair value as ACES’s previous company update at IDR685/share.
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“CPIN : Solid Performance, Profitability Increased in 1Q25”
CPIN booked revenue growth of 11.3% YoY to IDR17.7 trillion in 1Q25. This growth was driven by increased sales in all CPIN's business segments, except for the others segment, which decreased by 9.75% YoY to IDR303 billion in 1Q25.CPIN's operating expenses decreased by 3.64% YoY to IDR973 billion in 1Q25. This decrease was mainly due to a 3.7% YoY decrease in selling expenses to IDR541 billion and a 390% YoY increase in other operating income to IDR126 billion, in line with the net gain from the sales of culled birds in 1Q25. This condition caused CPIN's operating profit to increase by 97.2% YoY to IDR2.1 trillion in 1Q25.CPIN's net profit grew 116.4% YoY to IDR1.53 trillion in 1Q25. Aside from solid operating profit along with operational efficiency, CPIN's net profit growth was also driven by a 514% YoY increase in finance income from interest on current accounts and deposits to IDR34 billion and a 29% YoY decrease in finance expense to IDR147 billion as interest expense from bank debt decreased to IDR133 billion in 1Q25.Based on CPIN's 1Q25 performance, we maintain our Buy rating for CPIN with the same projection and fair value as CPIN's previous company update at IDR5,400 per share or a potential upside of 11.34%.
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“JPFA : Non-operational Efficiency Supports Net Profit Growth in 1Q25”
JPFA booked revenue growth of 2.9% YoY to IDR14.33 trillion in 1Q25. This growth was driven by higher sales from almost all segments, except for the commercial farm and animal feeds segments, which decreased by 2.89% YoY and 3.38% YoY, respectively, in 1Q25.All of JPFA's business segments booked operating profit in 1Q25. In terms of growth, the trading and others segment booked the highest operating profit growth of 135% YoY to IDR146 billion, followed by the aquaculture segment, which increased by 68.55% YoY to IDR110 billion, and the poultry processing and consumer products segment, which increased by 60% YoY to IDR98 billion in 1Q25.The commercial farm segment booked a 14.84% YoY decrease in operating profit to IDR255 billion, the animal feed segment decreased by 14.78% YoY to IDR631 billion, and the poultry breeding segment decreased by 13.56% YoY to IDR202 billion in 1Q25. This condition resulted in JPFA's total segment operating profit decreased by 1.39% YoY to IDR1.44 trillion in 1Q25 (vs. IDR1.46 trillion in 1Q24).JPFA's net profit grew 5.4% YoY to IDR754 billion, driven by non-operational efficiency, especially a decrease in finance expense as interest expense on short-term bank debt decreased to IDR24 billion in 1Q25.We maintain our Buy rating for JPFA with the same projection and fair value as JPFA's previous company update at IDR2,400/share.
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