5 April 2024

DJIA lanjutkan pelemahan dan memasuki hari keempat di Kamis (4/4). Kondisi ini dipicu oleh tren kenaikan harga minyak bumi yang dikhawatirkan memicu kenaikan inflasi di AS. Minneapolis Fed President, Neel Kashkari meragukan peluang pemangkasan sukubunga, jika inflasi masih tinggi (4/4). Harga brent tembus US$90/barel di Kamis (4/4). Ketika harga brent melampaui level psikologis US$90/barel, pandangan pasar berubah terhadap peluang pemangkasan sukubunga. Tren penurunan inflasi di Eropa membuka peluang pemangkasan sukubunga ECB seperti yang tertuang dalam minutes pertemuan terakhir ECB (4/4). Secara teknikal, IHSG memiliki peluang rebound lanjutan pasca membentuk pola bullish sandwich di Kamis (4/4) Akan tetapi, sentimen negatif eksternal, khususnya dari Wall Street berpotensi membayangi peluang tersebut. IHSG diperkirakan kembali fluktuatif dalam rentang 7200-7300 di Jumat (5/4).

DJIA mencatatkan rally pelemahan selama tiga hari berturut-turut (3/4). Sementara Nasdaq dan S&P500 sudah mencatatkan rebound di Rabu (3/4). Kepala the Fed, Jerome Powell (3/4) menyatakan bahwa the Fed masih memerlukan “lebih banyak bukti penurunan inflasi” sebelum memutuskan pemangkasan sukubunga acuan (3/4). Realisasi inflasi Euro Area di Maret 2024 yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan membuka ruang pemangkasan sukubunga oleh ECB. Proyeksi neraca perdagangan U.S untuk bulan Februari kembali menunjukkan defisit yang semakin melebar, diperkirakan mencapai US$68 miliar. Kondisi ini diperkirakan memicu pelemahan USD dalam jangka pendek. IHSG diperkirakan melemah terbatas dalam rentang pergerakan 7140-7200 pada hari Kamis (4/4). Indikator Stochastic RSI sudah memasuki oversold area dan adanya critical support level di kisaran 7140 tersebut. Top picks (4/4) : TKIM, INKP, MEDC, ELSA, LSIP dan AALI

4 April 2024

In 4Q23, INCO achieved strong revenue growth of 5.5% QoQ to US$294mn, with FY23 revenue totaling US$1,232.3mn, up 4.5% YoY, driven by increased sales and production, despite a decline in Average Selling Price by -12.1% QoQ attributed to fluctuating LME nickel prices. INCO effectively controlled costs in 4Q23, reducing cash costs by 8.1% QoQ to US$8,929/tonne while achieving a significant ~16.7% YoY reduction in cash costs to US$17,329/tonne for FY23, driven by lower coal consumption and decreased Coal ASP. Short-term challenges from nickel prices are expected, but lower costs are poised to drive growth in FY24F, with steady production targets and anticipated decreases in cash costs primarily attributed to lower Fuels & Lubricants and Coal ASP. Adjusted forecasts for Nickel Matte ASP downwards reflect LME nickel price weaknesses, we anticipated 19.9% YoY decrease in revenue to US$170mn for FY24F, leading to a Net Profit Margin (NPM) of 17.28%. INCO anticipates limited near-term growth in FY24E, but remains positioned for strong future expansion driven by robust fundamentals, including the completion of key projects in 2026 focusing on Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) and Ferronickel (FeNi), aimed at meeting Indonesia's growing nickel industry downstream projects. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.62% and Terminal Growth of 9.46%, we estimate INCO’s fair value at IDR4,548 (implying 16.9x / 1.05x expected P/E and P/BV). This outlook is fueled by INCO’s strong fundamentals, including its strong cost competitiveness and promising long-term growth projects in MHP and FeNi. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119055611 IG : phintracosekuritas YT : Phintraco Sekuritas TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

Indeks-indeks Wall Street lanjutkan pelemahan di Selasa (2/4). U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield naik ke level tertinggi sejak akhir November 2023 (2/4). CME FedWatch Tools masih menunjukan peluang pemangkasan 25 bps di FOMC Juni 2024 sebesar 66.8%, tidak banyak berubah dari kondisi beberapa pekan terakhir. Indeks manufaktur di Inggris mencatatkan kenaikan ke 50.3 di Maret 2024 dari 47.5 di Februari 2024. Harga brent menguat 1.75% ke US$88.94/barel, sementara harga crude naik 1.72% ke US$85.15/barel di Selasa (2/4). Pelemahan nilai tukar Rupiah tertahan di bawah Rp16,000/USD sejalan dengan upaya intervensi Pemerintah untuk menjaga stabilitas keuangan domestik. Pasar juga nampaknya merespon positif rencana penerapan diskon tarif tol di beberapa ruas tol mulai 3 April 2024. Kebijakan ini juga berpotensi meningkatkan mobilitas masyarakat di libur Hari Raya Idul Fitri tahun ini. Rebound IHSG di Selasa (2/4) membuka peluang technical rebound lanjutan ke kisaran 7230-7250 di Rabu (3/4).

3 April 2024

2 April 2024

DJIA melemah signifikan di Senin (1/4). Kepala the Fed, Jerome Powell menilai bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi di AS masih kuat dan inflasi di AS masih berada di atas target the Fed (28/3). Pernyataan ini memicu kekhawatiran bahwa belum ada urgensi bagi the Fed untuk segera memangkas sukubunga acuan. Sementara mayoritas pasar modal di Eropa masih libur di Senin (1/4) untuk memperingati Hari Raya Paskah. Terjadi serangan misil terhadap Iranian Consulate di Suriah. Hal ini memicu kenaikan harga minyak di Senin (1/4). Otoritas Moneter Singapura mengumumkan perubahan terkait batas simpanan yang dijamin dari S$75,000 menjadi S$100,000 mulai 1 April 2024. Indeks manufaktur Indonesia naik ke 54.2 di Maret 2024 dari 52.7 di Februari 2024. Realisasi inflasi Indonesia juga relatif berada di kisaran asumsi APBN 2024, tepatnya di 3.05% yoy di Maret 2024.

BBTN recorded a net profit of IDR 3.5 trillion, growing 15% yoy in FY23. Interest Income rose 9.2% yoy, although this was followed by an increase in Interest Expense of 36.4% yoy in FY23. Loans & financing have been on an uptrend for the last five years. BBTN's loans & financing grew 11.09% yoy to IDR 334 trillion in FY23. BBTN became the first state-owned bank to sell significant assets using an asset exchange scheme. The transaction amounting to IDR 861 billion was completed in FY23, with a portion of 7.9% of the 2023 NPL. CASA grew 20.4% yoy in FY23. BBTN recorded total Third Party Funds of IDR 349.9 trillion (+8.7% yoy) in FY23. BBTN will continue to develop high-yield loans in FY24, where in FY23, Home Equity Loan (KAR), People's Business Loan (KUR), and Soft Loan (KRING) succeeded in leading growth with a loan yield of 8.12% Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.98% and Terminal Growth of 8.43%, we estimate BBTN's fair value at 1,807 (6.29x expected P/E). Considering BBTN's reasonable price and its relative valuation, which is below 0.74x its 5-year average P/B, we give BBTN a buy rating with a potential upside of 16.23%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -