2 July 2025

Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced inflation of 1.87% YoY in June 2025, up from 1.60% YoY in May 2025. This inflation realization was above the consensus forecast of 1.83% YoY. Core inflation slightly decreased to 2.37% YoY in June 2025 from 2.40% YoY in May 2025. Commodities contributing to core inflation components included jewelry, ground coffee, and cooking oil. Meanwhile, the volatile food component experienced inflation of 0.57% YoY in June 2025, primarily supported by increases in rice, coconut, and tomato prices in May 2025. The administered price component experienced inflation of 1.34% YoY, with significant contributions from water utility rates, Machine-Made Kretek Cigarettes and Hand-Rolled Kretek Cigarettes (Figure 1).

Indonesia's Trade Balance Surplus (NPI) increased to US$4.30 billion in May 2025 from US$0.16 billion (Figure 1). This increase was driven by a significant rise in non-oil and gas surplus to US$5.83 billion in May 2025 from US$1.51 billion in April 2025. The growth was contributed by animal and vegetable fats and oils, mineral and vegetable fuels, as well as iron and steel. Meanwhile, the oil and gas trade balance recorded a deficit of US$1.53 billion in May 2025, primarily due to the decline in crude oil and petroleum products. The NPI surplus has maintained its position for 61 months since May 2020.

RUU pajak AS yang dibuat pemerintahan Senat diperkirakan akan menambah defisit AS hampir US$3.3 triliun dalam sepuluh tahun ke depan, dengan penurunan pendapatan sebesar US$4.5 triliun dan pengurangan pengeluaran US$1.2 triliun hingga 2034. RUU ini mencakup pemotongan pajak besar-besaran dan pengurangan program sosial, namun mendapat kritik karena asumsi dasar kebijakan saat ini yang memungkinkan penghindaran batasan fiskal. Pemerintah Indonesia telah menyerahkan penawaran kedua dalam negosiasi tarif perdagangan dengan Amerika Serikat menjelang tenggat 9 Juli 2025, dan tawaran ini sudah diterima oleh pihak AS. Penawaran ini mencakup berbagai sektor, termasuk investasi di mineral tanah jarang dan peningkatan kerja sama perdagangan yang mengacu pada kepentingan nasional Indonesia.  

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Senin (30/6). Kanada telah membatalkan pajak layanan digital terhadap perusahaan teknologi AS. Investor menantikan pengumuman kesepakatan dagang AS dengan para mitra dagangnya. Senat AS dengan suara tipis menyetujui suara prosedural untuk membuka perdebatan mengenai RUU anggaran belanja pemerintahan Trump. Dari domestik akan menantikan data inflasi Juni 2025 dan neraca perdagangan Mei 2025 (1/7). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 4 bps ke 4.238%. Harga emas naik 0.6% di level US$3,293/troy oz. IHSG diperkirakan berpeluang menguji level 6950-7000. Top picks (1/7): INDY, INCO, ERAA, PGEO dan ANTM. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Ratna Lim - Disclaimer On -

1 July 2025

U.S. economic growth contracted by 0.5% QoQ final in 1Q25 from 2.40% QoQ in 4Q24, as released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and below market expectations of 0.2% QoQ expansion. It aligns with the slowdown in general inflation indicators, namely Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) to 2.30% YoY in March 2025 from 2.70% YoY in February 2025. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in March rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in February 2025. U.S. Growth Domestic Product (GDP) has growth driven by personal consumption expenditure contribution, which grew only by 0.5% QoQ or 69.3% of total GDP. Based on value, personal consumption increased by 0.11% QoQ to US$18.6 trillion, supported by increased household service spending. Other expenditures, such as domestic investment, grew highest at 23.8% QoQ. In comparison, government spending slowed by 0.6% QoQ due to U.S. President Donald Trump's policy of maintaining efficient government operations overseen by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). In terms of net exports, the highest slowdown contracted by 29.07% QoQ due to rising import values as goods and services were not produced in the US (Figure 2).

Price Consumer Expenditure (PCE) Index di Amerika Serikat naik menjadi 2.3% YoY pada Mei 2025 dari 2.2% YoY di April, sesuai dengan ekspektasi pasar. Sementara itu, indeks harga PCE inti tanpa harga makanan dan energi naik 0.2% MoM dan tumbuh 2.7% YoY, sedikit di atas perkiraan pasar sebesar 2.6% YoY. Rata-rata perubahan tahunan indeks harga PCE di AS sejak 1960 adalah 3.29% YoY. Euro Economic Sentiment (ECS) turun menjadi 94 pada Juni 2025 dari 94.8 di Mei, meleset dari ekspektasi pasar yang memperkirakan kenaikan ke 95.1. Penurunan ini terutama disebabkan oleh melemahnya kepercayaan di sektor industry, ritel dan konsumen meskipun terjadi perbaikan di sektor jasa dan konstruksi. Di antara negara ekonomi terbesar Uni Eropa, penurunan ECS paling signifikan terjadi di Prancis, diikuti Spanyol dan Jerman sementara ECS naik di Polandia.    

30 June 2025

30 June 2025