Indeks-indeks Wall Street berakhir mixed di awal Juni (3/6). U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI turun ke 48.7 di Mei 2024 dari 49.2 di April 2024. Kondisi ini memicu kekhawatiran terhadap outlook pertumbuhan ekonomi AS, tapi di sisi lain diyakini memperbesar peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed dalam FOMC September 2024. ECB diperkirakan memangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps dalam pertemuan Kamis (6/6). OPEC+ mempertimbangkan untuk melakukan pengurangan terhadap pemangkasan produksi dari posisi saat ini sebesar 2.2 juta barel per hari mulai Oktober 2024. Hal ini memicu pelemahan harga minyak hingga 3% di Senin (3/6). Perhatikan potensi fluktuasi lanjutan IHSG di kisaran pivot 7050-7075 di Selasa (4/6). Inflasi total Indonesia turun ke 2.84% yoy di Mei 2024 dari 3% yoy di April 2024 dan indeks manufaktur Indonesia turun ke 52.1 di Mei 2024 dari 52.9 di April 2024. Kedua data tersebut mengindikasikan perlambatan aktivitas ekonomi di Mei 2024.

ICBP recorded net revenue of IDR19.92 trillion during 3M24, a limited growth of 4.07%. Although ICBP’s revenue growth was limited, ICBP was able to record an Operating Profit Margin of 24.69% during 3M24. Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) revenue was overshadowed by high inflation rate in some of its operating regions. During 2023, PCL recorded revenue of IDR16.4 trillion, growing 10.92% YoY. This growth was lower than the sales growth in 2022, which reached 19.79% YoY. However, ICBP could still post a solid Operating Profit Margin in 2023 at 21.19%. Better than the Operating Profit Margin in 2022, which amounted to 20.65%. The acquisition of Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) in 2020 also contributed to ICBP’s revenue growth. Based on data from the World Instant Noodles Association (WINA), demand for instant noodles in PCL's operating regions tends to increase from 2019-2023 such as Nigeria (CAGR +9.19%), Egypt (CAGR +30.99%), Turkey (CAGR +29.08%), and Kenya (CAGR +21.67%). We believe it will positively impact for ICBP's revenue due to PCL's strong market share in the region. Profit margins have the potential to stabilize in line with the softening of raw material prices. If CPO and Wheat prices stabilize more in the future, it will potentially boost the company's profit margin stability. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.49% and Terminal Growth of 2%, we estimate ICBP’s fair value at IDR12,504 per share (Expected PE at 14.91x and EV/EBITDA at 9.28x in FY24). We give ICBP a Buy rating with a potential upside of 28.25%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

3 Juni 2024

DJIA catatkan penguatan harian tertinggi sepanjang 2024 di Jumat (31/5). Peluang pemangkasan di September 2024 kembali lebih tinggi (47%) dari peluang ditahan (45.2%) berdasarkan jajak pendapat terbaru oleh CME FedWatch Tools. ECB diperkirakan memangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps ke 4.25% dalam pertemuan 6 Juni 2024. Antisipasi dan respon terhadap kebijakan moneter ECB ini berpotensi meredam tekanan pada nilai tukar Rupiah. IHSG berpeluang menjaga posisinya di atas critical support level dan level psikologis 7000 pada pekan ini. Indonesia dijadwalkan merilis data inflasi Mei 2024 yang diperkirakan turun 6 bps mom ke 2.94% yoy.

ISAT's 1Q24 revenue rose 16% YoY (1% QoQ) to Rp13.84 trillion. ARPU increased 14% YoY (-3% QoQ) to Rp37.5k, subscribers grew 2% YoY (2% QoQ) to 100.80 thousand. 2G and 4G BTS expanded by 11% and 21% QoQ, respectively, outside Java, driving operating expenses up 15.50% YoY to Rp11.10 trillion. Nonetheless, EBITDA grew 22.10% YoY to Rp6.5 trillion, with a 47% margin, resulting in a net profit of IDR1.3 trillion (39% YoY, -8% QoQ). Management allocated ~Rp12 trillion for capex, focusing on expanding the network in eastern Indonesia. In 1Q24, ISAT added 32k new 4G BTS towers, totaling 184k. This efficient expansion enhances the 4G network, improving customer experience. Management targets an EBITDA margin of ~50%, with revenue growth expected to surpass industry averages. ISAT entered a $200 million partnership with Nvidia, cementing its cloud service position in Indonesia. It also partnered with Netcracker for IT infrastructure upgrades and collaborated with Mastercard and Cisco on cybersecurity. IT Services revenue is expected to reach 5-7% of total revenue from FY24 to FY29. We project ISAT to achieve revenue of IDR 54.63 trillion (+7% YoY) in FY24, mainly driven by a 6.70% CAGR (2024-2029) in the data segment and a 4% CAGR (2024-2029) in subscribers. Operating expenses are estimated to rise by 6% YoY to IDR 43.23 trillion due to expansion efforts, particularly outside Java. EBITDA is estimated at IDR 26.37 trillion with a margin of 48%. With these factors, we anticipate a net profit of IDR 5.19 trillion (+15.32% YoY) in FY24. Using Discounted Free Cash Flow with a Required Return of 9.00% and a terminal growth rate of 3.00% suggests a potential increase of 23.40%, or IDR12,200 per share (implying PBV at 2.04X and PE at 14.54x for FY24F). Therefore, a BUY rating is assigned for ISAT. Risks include: 1) ARPU competition in the low-price segment, 2) potential market share disruption from the EXCL-FREN merger, and 3) potential disruption to the FMC business from the presence of Starlink. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Pelemahan berlanjut pada mayoritas indeks Wall Street di Kamis (30/5). U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield bertahan di atas 4.5% (30/5) yang nampaknya menjadi batas toleransi bagi investor di pasar saham di AS. Inflasi Euro Area diperkirakan naik 10 bps mom ke 2.5% yoy di Mei 2024 (31/5). Harga minyak melemah lebih dari 1% di Kamis (30/5). Nilai tukar Rupiah melanjutkan pelemahannya ke Rp16,255 (+0.62%) di Kamis (30/5) sore. Perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di AS di 1Q24 diharapkan bisa meredam capital outflow karena diperkirakan menekan the Fed untuk mempertahankan peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan di September 2024. IHSG diperkirakan bergerak dalam rentang 7000-7050 di Jumat (31/5).

31 Mei 2024

Pelemahan dialami oleh mayoritas indeks Wall Street di Rabu (29/5). Pelemahan tersebut sejalan dengan kenaikan U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield dalam dua hari terakhir ke atas 4.6% di Rabu (29/5). Peluang the Fed Rate dipertahankan di 5.25%-5.5% pada FOMC September 2024 kini berada di atas 50% berdasarkan jajak pendapat oleh CME FedWatch Tools. ECB Governing Council member, Klaas Knot menyatakan bahwa pemangkasan harus perlahan dan bertahap. Harga minyak mengalami pullback sekitar 0.7% di Rabu (29/5). IHSG rawan mengalami pelemahan lanjutan di Kamis (30/5). Perhatikan pivot 7150 sebelum support area 7080-7100. Net sell investor asing di pasar reguler mencapai Rp1 triliun di Rabu (29/5), sementara akumulasi net sell investor asing di pekan ini mencapai Rp5 triliun.

30 Mei 2024

Wall Street ditutup mixed di Selasa (28/5). Kondisi tersebut dipengaruhi oleh pandangan beragam dari pertinggi the Fed terhadap timeframe pemangkasan. Kenaikan U.S. CB Consumer Confidence ke 102 di Mei 2024 dari 97 di April 2024 turut mempengaruhi pergerakan indeks-indeks Wall Street (28/5). Dua petinggi ECB mendukung peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan lebih awal. Euro Area’s inflation data di akhir pekan ini dapat menjadi validasi dari pandangan petinggi ECB tersebut. Penguatan IHSG ke atas 7250 (28/5) membuka peluang rebound lanjutan ke kisaran resistance 7300 di Rabu (29/5). Harga minyak masih fluktuatif dengan menguat nyaris 3% di Selasa (28/5) menjelang pertemuan OPEC+ di 1 Juni 2024.