>Nasdaq menguat 2.2% di Senin (8/1) sejalan dengan aksi bargain hunting pada saham perusahaan-perusahaan teknologi di AS. >Pasar mengantisipasi potensi petunjuk tambahan mengenai timeframe pemangkasan sukubunga the Fed di 2024 mengingat sejumlah petinggi the Fed dijadwalkan menyampaikan pidato pada pekan ini. >Pelaku pasar di Eropa mengantisipasi rilis kinerja keuangan Q4-2023 dari bank-bank di Eropa yang diyakini masih solid pada periode tersebut. >Harga brent oil melemah 3.10% ke US$76.32/barel dan harga crude oil melemah 3.92% ke US$70.92/barel di Senin (8/1). >Saudi Aramco memangkas harga jual crude sebesar US$2/barel ke pelanggan di Asia. >IHSG diperkirakan bergerak fluktuatif di atas pivot level 7250 di Selasa (9/1). >Cadangan devisa Indonesia naik 6% mom ke US$146.4 miliar per 31 December 2023. >Cadangan devisa tersebut setara dengan pembiayaan 6.7 bulan impor atau 6.5 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah.

>Wall Street mencatatkan pelemahan mingguan pertama dalam sepuluh pekan terakhir pada pekan lalu. >Terdapat spekulasi terhadap kinerja perusahaan di AS, khususnya retailers yang kurang memuaskan di Q4-2023. >Belum ada kejelasan mengenai timeframe pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed untuk 2024. >IHSG masih rawan profit taking pada pekan ini. >IHSG diperkirakan bergerak dalam rentang cukup luas di support 7250 sampai dengan resistance 7400-7420 di pekan ini. >Data keyakinan konsumen Indonesia diperkirakan naik ke level 124 di Desember 2023 dari sebelumnya 123.6 di November 2023. >Retail sales di Indonesia diperkirakan naik ke 3.5% yoy di November 2023 dari 2.4% yoy di bulan sebelumnya.

>Pelemahan indeks-indeks Wall Street berlanjut di Kamis (4/1). >Aksi jual selektif pada saham-saham teknologi di AS masih berlanjut di Kamis (4/1). >Pasar khawatir bahwa pasar terlalu optimis dalam merespon petunjuk pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed di 2024. >U.S. Initial Jobless Claims turun ke 202 ribu di pekan lalu dari 220 ribu di pekan sebelumnya. >Mayoritas indeks di Eropa lebih dulu membukukan rebound di Kamis (4/1). >Inflasi di Jerman naik ke 3.7% yoy di Desember 2023 dari 3.2% yoy di November 2023. Kenaikan inflasi ini kemungkinan lebih didorong oleh fluktuasi harga energi di Desember 2023. >Tetap waspadai potensi normal pullback pada IHSG di Jumat (5/1). >Penguatan signifikan IHSG di Kamis (4/1) tidak diikuti ekspansi volume transaksi yang memadai.

4 Januari 2024

>Profit taking pada indeks-indeks Wall Street memasuki hari kedua di Rabu (3/1). >Belum adanya kepastian mengenai timeframe pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed di 2024 menjadi akselerator dari aksi profit taking, terutama pada saham-saham teknologi. >Sejumlah perusahaan pelayaran mengumumkan untuk tetap menghindari jalur pelayaran Laut Merah. >Kondisi ini dikhawatirkan memicu kenaikan tarif pelayaran dalam jangka pendek. >Harga brent oil menguat 3.43% ke US$78.49/barel dan harga crude oil menguat 3.75% ke US$73.02/barel di Rabu (3/1). >IHSG diperkirakan kembali fluktuatif dalam rentang 7250-7300 di Kamis (4/1). >Peluang rebound pada harga saham-saham energi di Kamis (4/1) cukup besar. >Waspadai potensi profit taking pada saham-saham infrastruktur dan logistik. >Top picks (4/1) : SIDO, INKP, ULTJ, AGRO dan ARTO.

3 Januari 2024

>Nasdaq melemah 1.63%, diikuti S&p 500 yang melemah 0.57%, sementara DJIA ditutup flat (0.07%) di Selasa (2/1). >Pelemahan tersebut dinilai sebagai bentuk profit taking oleh pelaku pasar. >Mayoritas indeks utama di Eropa juga melemah di Selasa (2/1) merespon data indeks manufaktur Euro Area yang kurang memuaskan. >Iran dikabarkan menugaskan satu unit destroyer ke wilayah Laut Merah. >Keputusan Tiongkok untuk kembali menerapkan bea impor batubara asal beberapa negara mengindikasikan kemampuan Tiongkok memenuhi kebutuhan energinya secara mandiri. >IHSG diperkirakan kembali fluktuatif dalam rentang 7250-7300 di Rabu (3/1). >Indeks manufaktur Indonesia naik ke 52.2 di Desember dari 51.7 di November 2023. >Inflasi inti Indonesia relatif stabil di 1.8% yoy. Kondisi ini menjadi indikator awal solidnya konsumsi masyarakat sampai dengan akhir 2023.

**REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023** >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. **REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023** >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023.PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT) *"2024 Economic & Market Outlook: Searching for Opportunities in a Political Year."* -December 2023- --------------- *REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023* >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. *REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023* >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023. --------------- *OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. *OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id www.taspro.co.id --------------- **OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. **OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -