**REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023**
>The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply.
>Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities.
>Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices.
>Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures.
>This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements.

**REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023**
>Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023.
>Indonesia’s economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023.
>Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index.
>Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices.
>Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range.
>BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023.
>The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL).
>The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000.
>The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023.PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT)

*”2024 Economic & Market Outlook: Searching for Opportunities in a Political Year.”*
-December 2023-

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*REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023*
>The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply.
>Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities.
>Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices.
>Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures.
>This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements.

*REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023*
>Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023.
>Indonesia’s economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023.
>Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index.
>Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices.
>Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range.
>BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023.
>The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL).
>The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000.
>The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023.

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*OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024*
>Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024.
>Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases.
>Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024.
>Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty.

*OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024*
>Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN.
>The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024.
>The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic.
>The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024.
>The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia.
>A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate.
>IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024.

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By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –

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—————
**OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024**
>Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024.
>Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases.
>Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024.
>Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty.

**OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024**
>Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN.
>The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024.
>The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic.
>The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024.
>The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia.
>A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate.
>IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024.

—————
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
– Disclaimer On –