In 4Q23, INCO achieved strong revenue growth of 5.5% QoQ to US$294mn, with FY23 revenue totaling US$1,232.3mn, up 4.5% YoY, driven by increased sales and production, despite a decline in Average Selling Price by -12.1% QoQ attributed to fluctuating LME nickel prices.

INCO effectively controlled costs in 4Q23, reducing cash costs by 8.1% QoQ to US$8,929/tonne while achieving a significant ~16.7% YoY reduction in cash costs to US$17,329/tonne for FY23, driven by lower coal consumption and decreased Coal ASP.

Short-term challenges from nickel prices are expected, but lower costs are poised to drive growth in FY24F, with steady production targets and anticipated decreases in cash costs primarily attributed to lower Fuels & Lubricants and Coal ASP.

Adjusted forecasts for Nickel Matte ASP downwards reflect LME nickel price weaknesses, we anticipated 19.9% YoY decrease in revenue to US$170mn for FY24F, leading to a Net Profit Margin (NPM) of 17.28%.

INCO anticipates limited near-term growth in FY24E, but remains positioned for strong future expansion driven by robust fundamentals, including the completion of key projects in 2026 focusing on Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) and Ferronickel (FeNi), aimed at meeting Indonesia’s growing nickel industry downstream projects.

Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.62% and Terminal Growth of 9.46%, we estimate INCO’s fair value at IDR4,548 (implying 16.9x / 1.05x expected P/E and P/BV). This outlook is fueled by INCO’s strong fundamentals, including its strong cost competitiveness and promising long-term growth projects in MHP and FeNi.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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